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移民火星~然后种土豆?

Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | Stephen Petranek

大家准备好
Strap yourselves in,
我们要去火星!
we’re going to Mars.
不仅仅是一些宇航员
Not just a few astronauts —
成千上万的人准备移居火星
thousands of people are going to colonize Mars.
相信我 这将发生在不久的将来
And I am telling you that they’re going to do this soon.
你们当中的一些人将留在火星工作
Some of you will end up working on projects on Mars,
我保证你们的孩子也将一直留在那里
and I guarantee that some of your children will end up living there.
这可能听起来很荒谬
That probably sounds preposterous,
所以我将和各位分享 这如何发生 何时发生
so I’m going to share with you how and when that will happen.
首先我想讨论一个显而易见的问题:
But first I want to discuss the obvious question:
我们为什么要这么做?
Why the heck should we do this?
12年前
12 years ago,
我在TED演讲了关于十种世界突然毁灭的方式
I gave a TED talk on 10 ways the world could end suddenly.
我们在浩瀚的宇宙面前 真的难以置信的脆弱
We are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of our own galaxy.
单单一颗略大的小行星 就可以让我们永远消失
A single, large asteroid could take us out forever.
为了生存 我们必须有后备的星球
To survive we have to reach beyond the home planet.
试想一下 如果人类创造的所有科技瞬间消失
Think what a tragedy it would be
这会是多么大的悲剧
if all that humans have accomplished were suddenly obliterated.
还有一个原因:
And there’s another reason we should go:
我们生而勇于探索
exploration is in our DNA.
两百万年前起源于非洲的人类
Two million years ago humans evolved in Africa
缓慢却坚定地探索着望不到尽头的荒野
and then slowly but surely spread out across the entire planet
最终足迹遍布了整个星球
by reaching into the wilderness that was beyond their horizons.
这是我们的灵魂
This stuff is inside us.
而且他们成功了
And they prospered doing that.
因为我们不停的探索 文明和科技都取得了
Some of the greatest advances in civilization and technology
长足的进步
came because we explored.
当然我们可以用钱
Yes, we could do a lot of good
搞定很多事 去建立一个繁荣的火星基地
with the money it will take to establish a thriving colony on Mars.
是的!我们更应该管理和爱护我们的星球
And yes we should all be taking far better care of our own home planet.
是的!我担心我们会搞砸了地球 那样我们也可能会搞砸火星
And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars the way we’ve screwed up Earth.
不过先想一想
But think for a moment,
当肯尼迪总统向所有人宣布 我们可以把人类送到月球上时
what we had when John F. Kennedy told us we would put a human on the moon.
他点燃了整代人的梦想
He excited an entire generation to dream.
试想为了登陆火星 我们将受到多么大的鼓舞
Think how inspired we will be to see a landing on Mars.
也许孤身一人时
Perhaps then we will look back at Earth
会回想地球的时光
and see that that is one people instead of many
也许我们在火星顽强生存时
and perhaps then we will look back at Earth,
会回想地球的美好
as we struggle to survive on Mars,
会意识到家的宝贵
and realize how precious the home planet is.
下面我来介绍 我们将进行的神奇旅程
So let me tell you about the extraordinary adventure we’re about to undertake.
首先
But first,
介绍一下 我们将要去的地方的奇妙之处
a few fascinating facts about where we’re going.
这张照片真实的反应了 地球和火星的大小对比
This picture actually represents the true size of Mars compared to Earth.
火星不是我们的姊妹星球
Mars is not our sister planet.
它比地球尺寸的一半还要小得多
It’s far less than half the size of the Earth,
不过虽然火星小一些
and yet despite the fact that it’s smaller,
在火星上表面 人类可以活动的面积
the surface area of Mars that you can stand on
和在地球上差不多大
is equivalent to the surface area of the Earth that you can stand on,
因为地球主要被水覆盖
because the Earth is mostly covered by water.
火星的大气层非常稀薄
The atmosphere on Mars is really thin —
只有地球的厚度的百分之一
100 times thinner than on Earth —
而且火星上不能呼吸 96%的空气是二氧化碳
and it’s not breathable, it’s 96 percent carbon dioxide.
火星非常冷
It’s really cold there.
平均气温零下63摄氏度
The average temperature is minus 81 degrees,
昼夜温差也非常大
although there is quite a range of temperature.
火星上的一昼夜的长短和地球上差不多
A day on Mars is about as long as a day on Earth,
比地球长大约39分钟
plus about 39 minutes.
在火星上每年的季节 都是地球上的两倍长
Seasons and years on Mars are twice as long as they are on Earth.
对那些想插上翅膀 在火星上飞的人来说
And for anybody who wants to strap on some wings and go flying one day,
火星的重力比地球小很多
Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,
所以是个好选择
and it’s the kind of place
不用绕过你的车 你可以直接跳过去
where you can jump over your car instead of walk around it.
如你所见 火星并不是像地球
Now, as you can see, Mars isn’t exactly Earth-like,
但是这是整个太阳系里 除地球外最适合居住的地方了
but it’s by far the most livable other place in our entire solar system.
不过有个问题
Here’s the problem.
去火星路途遥远
Mars is a long way away,
是地月距离的一千倍
a thousand times farther away from us than our own moon.
月亮在四十万公里外
The Moon is 250,000 miles away
阿波罗号载着宇航员去那里要三天的时间
and it took Apollo astronauts three days to get there.
火星在四亿公里以外
Mars is 250 million miles away
要八个月我们才能到达
and it will take us eight months to get there —
也就是240天
240 days.
而且我们每年只有两次机会
And that’s only if we launch on a very specific day,
趁地球和火星
at a very specific time,
成一条线的的时候
once every two years,
在这个特殊的日子 特殊的时间降落
when Mars and the Earth are aligned just so,
因为这时候火箭运行的距离才是最短的
so the distance that the rocket would have to travel will be the shortest.
所有人在火箭里待240天简直就是度日如年
240 days is a long time to spend trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.
而且翻看以前去火星的记录也不是很理想
And meanwhile, our track record of getting to Mars is lousy.
我们、俄罗斯人、欧洲人、日本人
We and the Russians, the Europeans, the Japanese,
中国人和印度人
the Chinese and the Indians,
一共发射了44只火箭
have actually sent 44 rockets there,
大部分都消失或者坠毁了
and the vast majority of them have either missed or crashed.
只有三分之一的火箭成功到达了火星
Only about a third of the missions to Mars have been successful.
我们现在也没有直达火星的强大机器
And we don’t at the moment have a rocket big enough to get there anyway.
我们曾经有一枚叫做土星五号的大火箭
We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.
几枚土星五号就可以把我们送过去
A couple of Saturn Vs would have gotten us there.
那是人类迄今为止制造的最大的机器
It was the most magnificent machine ever built by humans,
它也正是带我们去月球的那枚火箭
and it was the rocket that took us to the Moon.
但在最后一枚土星五号火箭 1973年把宇宙空间站送上太空后
But the last Saturn V was used in 1973 to launch the Skylab space station,
继续登陆火星
and we decided to do something called the shuttle
转而开始研发航天飞机
instead of continuing on to Mars after we landed on the Moon.
目前我们所拥有的最大火箭
The biggest rocket we have now
只有当时的一半大
is only half big enough to get us anything to Mars.
所以去火星并不容易
So getting to Mars is not going to be easy
那么问题来了
and that brings up a really interesting question …
第一批人类登陆火星还要多久?
how soon will the first humans actually land here?
一些专家认为进展顺利的话
Now, some pundits think if we got there by 2050,
2025年我们可以成功登陆火星
that’d be a pretty good achievement.
最近NASA认为 2040年前就可以送人类登陆火星
These days, NASA seems to be saying that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.
也许他们可以做到
Maybe they can.
我认为他们可以在2035年之前 就把人送入火星轨道
I believe that they can get human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.
但是坦白说
But frankly,
我不认为他们在2035年 还会操心发射火箭到火星的事情
I don’t think they’re going to bother in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,
因为我们已经在那里了
because we will already be there.
我们将要在2027年登陆火星
We’re going to land on Mars in 2027.
因为
And the reason is
有人下决心做到这件事
this man is determined to make that happen.
他叫埃隆·马斯克 特斯拉和SpaceX公司的CEO
His name is Elon Musk, he’s the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.
实际上他跟我说 2025年前我们就可以登陆火星
Now, he actually told me that we would land on Mars by 2025,
但是埃隆·马斯克比我要乐观
but Elon Musk is more optimistic than I am —
这是他的行事方式
and that’s going a ways —
所以我多给他两年作为缓冲
so I’m giving him a couple of years of slack.
不过
Still …
大家可能会怀疑
you’ve got to ask yourself,
这个人真的可以在2025年到2027年间做到么?
can this guy really do this by 2025 or 2027?
我们先看一下有埃隆·马斯克的十年是如何发展的
Well, let’s put a decade with Elon Musk into a little perspective.
十年前是怎样的?
Where was this 10 years ago?
这是特斯拉电动汽车
That’s the Tesla electric automobile.
2005年很多汽车产业的人表示
In 2005, a lot of people in the automobile industry were saying,
50年后我们才会有一辆高级的电动汽车
we would not have a decent electric car for 50 years.
十年前的火箭产业呢?
And where was that?
这是SpaceX的猎鹰9号运载火箭
That is SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket,
满载六吨物资去往国际空间站
lifting six tons of supplies to the International Space Station.
十年前
10 years ago,
SpaceX还没有发射过任何火箭
SpaceX had not launched anything, or fired a rocket to anywhere.
所以我认为
So I think it’s a pretty good bet
一个用不到十年时间
that the person who is revolutionizing the automobile industry
颠覆整个汽车产业
in less than 10 years
并且白手起家 创造整个火箭产业的人
and the person who created an entire rocket company in less than 10 years
是可以在2027年前带我们上火星的
will get us to Mars by 2027.
你要知道:
Now, you need to know this:
政府和机器人不再是太空飞行的掌控者
governments and robots no longer control this game.
私人公司跳跃式的发展进入太空
Private companies are leaping into space
他们很乐意带我们去火星
and they will be happy to take you to Mars.
不过随之而来的问题是
And that raises a really big question.
我们真的可以在火星生存么?
Can we actually live there?
NASA也许直到2040年才可以把我们送到火星
Now, NASA may not be able to get us there until 2040,
也许我们在NASA之前就已经到达火星了
or we may get there a long time before NASA,
但是NASA需要解决我们在火星如何生存的问题
but NASA has taken a huge responsibility in figuring out how we can live on Mars.
我们换个方式看这个问题
Let’s look at the problem this way.
这是在地球上生存的必需品:
Here’s what you need to live on Earth:
食物、水、住所和衣物
food, water, shelter and clothing.
这是在火星上生存的必需品:
And here’s what you need to live on Mars:
上面的所有加上氧气
all of the above, plus oxygen.
我们先说单子上最重要的东西
So let’s look at the most important thing on this list first.
我们都知道水是生命之源
Water is the basis of all life as we know it,
从地球带水去火星是不可能的
and it’s far too heavy for us to carry water from the Earth to Mars to live,
所以想要成功殖民火星 我们必须找到水源
so we have to find water if our life is going to succeed on Mars.
乍一看火星是很干燥的
And if you look at Mars, it looks really dry,
整个行星就像一个大沙漠
it looks like the entire planet is a desert.
但实际上并非如此
But it turns out that it’s not.
仅仅火星上的泥土就包含60%的水
The soil alone on Mars contains up to 60 percent water.
仍然盘旋在火星上空的 人造卫星的照片告诉我们
And a number of orbiters that we still have flying around Mars have shown us —
顺便说一句 这是一张真实照片
and by the way, that’s a real photograph —
很多火星环形山中间都被冰所覆盖
that lots of craters on Mars have a sheet of water ice in them.
在这里殖民就不错
It’s not a bad place to start a colony.
这是2008年凤凰号火星登录器 进行的小小的挖掘的照片
Now, here’s a view of a little dig the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,
可以看到地表下就是冰
showing that just below the surface of the soil is ice —
白色的就是冰
that white stuff is ice.
第二张图
In the second picture,
拍摄于第一张图之后四天
which is four days later than the first picture,
你可以看到部分冰升华了
you can see that some of it is evaporating.
卫星也告诉我们
Orbiters also tell us
火星地下水和冰山资源
that there are huge amounts of underground water on Mars
都非常丰富
as well as glaciers.
实际上如果所有火星两级的冰融化了
In fact, if only the water ice at the poles on Mars melted,
火星上绝大部分地方 都会被9米深的水所覆盖
most of the planet would be under 30 feet of water.
所以水资源很丰富
So there’s plenty of water there,
不过大多数是冰大多数在地下
but most of it’s ice, most of it’s underground,
需要大量人力和能源去开采和挖掘
it takes a lot of energy to get it and a lot of human labor.
这个仪器是1998年由华盛顿大学
This is a device cooked up at the University of Washington
提出的设想
back in 1998.
基本上这是一个低科技除湿器
It’s basically a low-tech dehumidifier.
事实上火星大气100%是非常潮湿的
And it turns out the Mars atmosphere is often 100 percent humid.
这个装置可以仅仅从大气中吸取水分
So this device can extract all the water that humans will need
来满足人类需求
simply from the atmosphere on Mars.
接下来我们要考虑如何呼吸
Next we have to worry about what we will breathe.
坦白地说我发现
Frankly, I was really shocked
NASA已经找到了解决方案时我惊呆了
to find out that NASA has this problem worked out.
这位在MIT的科学家叫做迈克尔·赫克特
This is a scientist at MIT named Michael Hecht.
他制造了这个机器 莫克西
And he’s developed this machine, Moxie.
我爱这个机器
I love this thing.
它本质上是一个反向燃料电池
It’s a reverse fuel cell, essentially,
吸收火星的大气释放氧气
that sucks in the Martian atmosphere and pumps out oxygen.
96%的火星大气成分二氧化碳
And you have to remember that CO2 —
基本上可以转化成为
carbon dioxide, which is 96 percent of Mars’ atmosphere —
78%的氧气
CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.
2020年下一个NASA发射的巨型探测器
Now, the next big rover that NASA sends to Mars in 2020
将会携带这些装置去火星
is going to have one of these devices aboard,
它可以制造足够一个人
and it will be able to produce enough oxygen
一生取之不尽的氧气
to keep one person alive indefinitely.
神奇的是
But the secret to this —
这只是在试验阶段
and that’s just for testing —
神奇的是这个装置从一开始被设计成
the secret to this is that this thing was designed from the get-go
可以扩展到100倍大小的规模
to be scalable by a factor of 100.
接下来我们吃什么?
Next, what will we eat?
我们用水培法种植作物
Well, we’ll use hydroponics to grow food,
不过我们的种植规模不能
but we’re not going to be able to grow
超过我们粮食需求的15~20%
more than 15 to 20 percent of our food there,
除非火星表面已经被水覆盖
at least not until water is running on the surface of Mars
并且我们有可能也有能力种植作物
and we actually have the probability and the capability of planting crops.
否则在此期间
In the meantime,
食物大多是干燥后
most of our food will arrive from Earth,
从地球运输过来
and it will be dried.
接下来我们需要住处
And then we need some shelter.
一开始我们可以住在充气密封建筑里
At first we can use inflatable, pressurized buildings
和着陆器本身之中
as well as the landers themselves.
但是这只在白天才能实现
But this really only works during the daytime.
太阳辐射和宇宙射线太多了
There is too much solar radiation and too much radiation from cosmic rays.
所以我们必须躲进地下
So we really have to go underground.
已经证实火星上的土壤
Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,
基本上很适合制造砖块
by and large, is perfect for making bricks.
NASA也发现了这个特点
And NASA has figured this one out, too.
他们在砖块里掺入一些聚合塑料
They’re going to throw some polymer plastic into the bricks,
然后在微波炉里挤压
shove them in a microwave oven,
这样你就可以用这些非常厚实的砖块建造房屋了
and then you will be able to build buildings with really thick walls.
或者我们可以选择在火星上大量的洞穴和熔岩洞
Or we may choose to live underground in caves or in lava tubes,
里面居住
of which there are plenty.
最后是衣物
And finally there’s clothing.
在地球我们有厚厚的大气堆在我们身上
On Earth we have miles of atmosphere piled up on us,
一直给予我们身体15磅的压力
which creates 15 pounds of pressure on our bodies at all times,
我们已经习惯抵抗这部分压力了
and we’re constantly pushing out against that.
火星上几乎没有大气压力
On Mars there’s hardly any atmospheric pressure.
所以达瓦·纽曼
So Dava Newman,
这个MIT的科学家
a scientist at MIT,
制造了这个光滑的宇航服
has created this sleek space suit.
它可以让我们连在一起
It will keep us together,
抵抗射线并且保持体温
block radiation and keep us warm.
所以仔细想一下
So let’s think about this for a minute.
有了食物、住所、衣物、水源和氧气
Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen …
万事俱备
we can do this.
前途是光明的
We really can.
但是道路是曲折的
But it’s still a little complicated and a little difficult.
接下来要解决的问题是
So that leads to the next big —
一个重要的问题:
really big step —
如何在火星很好的生活
in living the good life on Mars.
答案是地球化这个星球:
And that’s terraforming the planet:
让它更像地球一些
making it more like Earth,
重新改造整个星球
reengineering an entire planet.
听起来好像过于狂妄了
That sounds like a lot of hubris,
可是实际上
but the truth is
所有所需要的科技我们已经有了
that the technology to do everything I’m about to tell you already exists.
首先我们先把气候变暖
First we’ve got to warm it up.
因为大气层稀薄火星非常的冷
Mars is incredibly cold because it has a very thin atmosphere.
解决方案是火星的南极北极
The answer lies here, at the south pole and at the north pole of Mars,
都覆盖着
both of which are covered
大量的固态二氧化碳
with an incredible amount of frozen carbon dioxide —
也就是干冰
dry ice.
如果我们加热
If we heat it up,
它们会直接升华
it sublimes directly into the atmosphere
并增加大气层的厚度和地球的情况一样
and thickens the atmosphere the same way it does on Earth.
我们都知道
And as we know,
二氧化碳是非常强大的温室气体
CO2 is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas.
这是我非常喜欢的一个办法 建造一块非常非常大的太阳光反射器
Now, my favorite way of doing this is to erect a very, very large solar sail
使它聚焦
and focus it —
太阳光反射器本质上就是一面镜子
it essentially serves as a mirror —
把焦点一开始对在火星的南极
and focus it on the south pole of Mars at first.
随着星球自转 镜子会加热并升华所有的干冰
As the planet spins, it will heat up all that dry ice, sublime it,
二氧化碳会进入到大气之中
and it will go into the atmosphere.
实际上火星的气温
It actually won’t take long
很快就会开始升高
for the temperature on Mars to start rising,
大概不到20年就可以
probably less than 20 years.
现在
Right now,
如果是夏天中的大晴天
on a perfect day at the equator,
在火星的赤道上
in the middle of summer on Mars,
气温可以达到将近21摄氏度
temperatures can actually reach 70 degrees,
但是在晚上马上下降到零下73摄氏度
but then they go down to minus 100 at night.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我们为增强火星的温室效应而努力:
What we’re shooting for is a runaway greenhouse effect:
让火星升温 这样可以把大量火星上的冰
enough temperature rise to see a lot of that ice on Mars —
尤其是地下的冰融化
especially the ice in the ground — melt.
接下来就是见证奇迹的时刻
Then we get some real magic.
大气层变厚之后 一切都会好起来
As the atmosphere gets thicker, everything gets better.
我们受到更少的辐射
We get more protection from radiation,
大气更厚 温度升得更高
more atmosphere makes us warmer, makes the planet warmer,
我们还获得了流动的水资源
so we get running water
人类才有可能耕种
and that makes crops possible.
然后越来越多的水蒸气进入空气中 这是另一种强大的温室气体
Then more water vapor goes into the air, forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.
火星上会下雨、会下雪
It will rain and it will snow on Mars.
等大气再厚一点 会制造足够的压力
And a thicker atmosphere will create enough pressure
我们就可以脱下那些宇航服了
so that we can throw away those space suits.
只要有五磅左右的压力 我们就可以生存
We only need about five pounds of pressure to survive.
最后火星的感觉 会很像英属哥伦比亚
Eventually, Mars will be made to feel a lot like British Columbia.
我们最后只剩下一个复杂的问题:
We’ll still be left with the complicated problem
就是如何制造可以呼吸的大气
of making the atmosphere breathable,
实话说可能要1000年才可以做到
and frankly that could take 1,000 years to accomplish.
但是人类是非常聪明的 适应能力也极强
But humans are amazingly smart and incredibly adaptable.
谁也不知道将来我们的科技会发展到什么程度
There is no telling what our future technology will be able to accomplish
我们的身体可以进化到什么程度
and no telling what we can do with our own bodies.
现在的生物学
In biology right now,
马上就可以控制我们自己的基因
we are on the very verge of being able to control our own genetics,
控制每个基因在做什么
what the genes in our own bodies are doing,
当然
and certainly,
最终控制我们的进化
eventually, our own evolution.
最终地球上的人类
We could end up with a species of human being on Earth
也许和火星上的人类 有一些小小的不同
that is slightly different from the species of human beings on Mars.
但是我们在火星做什么?怎么生活呢?
But what would you do there? How would you live?
就像在地球一样
It’s going to be the same as it is on Earth.
有人开饭店
Somebody’s going to start a restaurant,
有人铸铁
somebody’s going to build an iron foundry.
有人拍摄火星的纪录电影
Someone will make documentary movies of Mars
卖给地球的人
and sell them on Earth.
一些笨蛋开拍一些真人秀
Some idiot will start a reality TV show.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
那里将会有软件公司
There will be software companies,
酒店、酒吧
there will be hotels, there will be bars.
有一点是确定的:
This much is certain:
这将是我们人生中最重大的转折
it will be the most disruptive event in our lifetimes,
同时也将是最振奋人心的事件
and I think it will be the most inspiring.
问一个十岁的女孩儿是否愿意去火星
Ask any 10-year-old girl if she wants to go to Mars.
现在上小学的孩子可以选择是否去那里居住
Children who are now in elementary school are going to choose to live there.
想想我们登月的时候
Remember when we landed humans on the Moon?
发生了什么?大家看着彼此说:
When that happened, people looked at each other and said,
如果我们成功 人类将所向披靡
“If we can do this, we can do anything.”
那么如果我们真的殖民火星 我们将会怎么想呢?
What are they going to think when we actually form a colony on Mars?
更重要的是
Most importantly,
这将使我们成为航天物种
it will make us a spacefaring species.
这意味着无论地球发生什么 我们都不会灭绝
And that means humans will survive no matter what happens on Earth.
我们这一代绝不会灭亡
We will never be the last of our kind.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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保险买了吗?会种土豆吗?买好船票了吗?准备好随时面对死亡了吗?如果没有问题,你可以做首批登陆火星的人,征服太阳系第一站即刻出发!

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Ljimnn

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赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9c7aheZxls

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