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自动化会让我们失业吗 – 译学馆
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自动化会让我们失业吗

Will automation take away all our jobs? | David Autor

有一个遗憾的现实:
Here’s a startling fact:
自从45年前引进自动取款机后
in the 45 years since the introduction of the automated teller machine,
也就是那些自动出纳现金的取款机
those vending machines that dispense cash,
美国招聘银行柜员的人数
the number of human bank tellers employed in the United States
大略翻了一倍
has roughly doubled,
从25万左右增长到50万
from about a quarter of a million to a half a million.
从1970年的25万增长到如今的50万
A quarter of a million in 1970 to about a half a million today,
从2000年起 就增加了10万人
with 100,000 added since the year 2000.
波士顿大学经济学家詹姆斯·比森
These facts, revealed in a recent book
在他最近的新书中揭示了这些事例
by Boston University economist James Bessen,
他提出了一个启发性的问题:
raise an intriguing question:
所有柜员在做什么
what are all those tellers doing,
为什么到现在自动化还没淘汰掉他们的岗位?
and why hasn’t automation eliminated their employment by now?
如果你思考这个问题
If you think about it,
你会发现 过去200年里许多伟大的发明
many of the great inventions of the last 200 years
都是为了代替人类劳动力而设计的
were designed to replace human labor.
拖拉机是为了用机械的力量
Tractors were developed
代替人类体力劳动而开发的
to substitute mechanical power for human physical toil.
组装线是为了
Assembly lines were engineered
以机器的完美替代不稳定的人类手工艺
to replace inconsistent human handiwork
设计而成的
with machine perfection.
电脑则是为了
Computers were programmed to swap out
用完美的数字化方式 替代易错的 前后矛盾的人工计算
error-prone, inconsistent human calculation
而开发出来的
with digital perfection.
这些发明都起作用了
These inventions have worked.
我们不再用手挖沟
We no longer dig ditches by hand,
敲打锻铁来制造工具
pound tools out of wrought iron
或者手写记账
or do bookkeeping using actual books.
而现在 2016年 在美国劳动市场中
And yet, the fraction of US adults employed in the labor market
成年人的受聘率增高了
is higher now in 2016
比125年前 即1890年 更高
than it was 125 years ago, in 1890,
并且在过去的10年里
and it’s risen in just about every decade
125年里都在增长
in the intervening 125 years.
这显然说不过去
This poses a paradox.
机器为我们做着越来越多的工作
Our machines increasingly do our work for us.
但为什么不会使我们的劳动力过剩以及技能过时呢?
Why doesn’t this make our labor redundant and our skills obsolete?
为什么仍有这么多工作呢?
Why are there still so many jobs?
(笑声)
(Laughter)
今晚 我将解答这个问题
I’m going to try to answer that question tonight,
同时 我会告诉你们 这对未来工作意味着什么
and along the way, I’m going to tell you what this means for the future of work
以及自动化对我们社会产生的和未产生
and the challenges that automation does and does not pose
的挑战
for our society.
为什么有这么多工作呢?
Why are there so many jobs?
实际上 这是应对危机的两条基本经济原则
There are actually two fundamental economic principles at stake.
一个用以处理人类的天赋
One has to do with human genius
和创造力
and creativity.
另一个则用来处理人类的不知足
The other has to do with human insatiability,
或者说 贪婪
or greed, if you like.
我将把第一个原则称为O形环原则
I’m going to call the first of these the O-ring principle,
它决定我们的工作类型
and it determines the type of work that we do.
第二个是永不满足原则
The second principle is the never-get-enough principle,
它决定实际的工作数量
and it determines how many jobs there actually are.
我们先说O形环原则
Let’s start with the O-ring.
ATM 自动柜员机
ATMs, automated teller machines,
对银行柜员有两个相抵消的影响
had two countervailing effects on bank teller employment.
如你所想 它们代替了很多柜员的任务
As you would expect, they replaced a lot of teller tasks.
每个支行的柜员少了三分之一左右
The number of tellers per branch fell by about a third.
但是银行很快发现 开新支行也更便宜
But banks quickly discovered that it also was cheaper to open new branches,
于是银行支行数量增长率达到40
and the number of bank branches increased by about 40 percent
这是同一时期的数据
in the same time period.
最终结果是 支行增多了 柜员也增多了
The net result was more branches and more tellers.
但是那些柜员做的工作稍有不同
But those tellers were doing somewhat different work.
比如说他们的日常工作 现金处理的工作减少了
As their routine, cash-handling tasks receded,
点钞员之类的岗位减少了
they became less like checkout clerks
推销员一类的职位增加了
and more like salespeople,
他们和客户建立联系
forging relationships with customers,
解决问题
solving problems
向他们介绍新产品 如银行卡 贷款 和投资
and introducing them to new products like credit cards, loans and investments:
更需要认知能力的工作
more tellers doing a more cognitively demanding job.
这是一个普遍规律
There’s a general principle here.
我们做的大部分工作
Most of the work that we do
需要同时兼具多项技能
requires a multiplicity of skills,
脑力 体能
and brains and brawn,
专业技术 直觉的把控
technical expertise and intuitive mastery,
用托马斯·爱迪生的话说就是99%的努力加上1%的灵感
perspiration and inspiration in the words of Thomas Edison.
总之 把任务中的部分工作自动化
In general, automating some subset of those tasks
并没有使其他工作不重要
doesn’t make the other ones unnecessary.
事实上 它使它们更重要
In fact, it makes them more important.
自动化增加他们的经济价值
It increases their economic value.
让我给你举个朴实的例子
Let me give you a stark example.
1986年 挑战者号航天飞机
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger
在发射后的两分钟之内就爆炸
exploded and crashed back down to Earth
随后坠落回地面
less than two minutes after takeoff.
结果证明坠毁原因是
The cause of that crash, it turned out,
助推器的O形橡胶环是便宜货
was an inexpensive rubber O-ring in the booster rocket
发射前夜 助推器在发射台上冻住了
that had frozen on the launchpad the night before
于是就导致了灾难性的时刻
and failed catastrophically moments after takeoff.
在这个耗费数十亿的大工程里
In this multibillion dollar enterprise
一个简单的O形橡胶环
that simple rubber O-ring
将原本会成功的发射
made the difference between mission success
变成了七名宇航员的不幸牺牲
and the calamitous death of seven astronauts.
在这次悲剧背景下 一个精妙的暗喻诞生了
An ingenious metaphor for this tragic setting
那就是在挑战者号灾难后
is the O-ring production function,
由哈佛经济学家迈克尔·克雷默命名的
named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer
O形环生产函数
after the Challenger disaster.
O形环生产函数把工作看作是
The O-ring production function conceives of the work
一系列连锁的步骤
as a series of interlocking steps,
链接成一条链
links in a chain.
所有环节中的每个人都必须保证任务成功
Every one of those links must hold for the mission to succeed.
如果其中任何一人失误
If any of them fails,
这次发射 或者是产品和服务
the mission, or the product or the service,
就会崩溃
comes crashing down.
这种危险的情况有一个意外的积极影响
This precarious situation has a surprisingly positive implication,
那就是
which is that improvements
在这条链中任何一个环节的可靠性
in the reliability of any one link in the chain
都能增加其它环节的改善价值
increases the value of improving any of the other links.
具体来讲 如果大多数环节都很脆弱 容易破损
Concretely, if most of the links are brittle and prone to breakage,
那事实上 你的链接并不那么可靠
the fact that your link is not that reliable
不那么重要
is not that important.
可能有别的东西会脱离
Probably something else will break anyway.
但是随着其它环节变得结实 可靠
But as all the other links become robust and reliable,
你的链接的重要性变得更不可或缺
the importance of your link becomes more essential.
在一定限度内 一切都靠它
In the limit, everything depends upon it.
O形环对挑战者号航天飞机如此重要的原因
The reason the O-ring was critical to space shuttle Challenger
是因为除它以外的每一样东西都运作得很完美
is because everything else worked perfectly.
如果挑战者号的操作系统
If the Challenger were kind of the space era equivalent
像是微软2000那样
of Microsoft Windows 2000 —
(大笑)
(Laughter)
O形环的可靠性就不重要
the reliability of the O-ring wouldn’t have mattered
因为这个机器将会崩溃
because the machine would have crashed.
(大笑)
(Laughter)
更广泛的观点认为
Here’s the broader point.
我们做的大多数工作都是O形环
In much of the work that we do, we are the O-rings.
是的 ATM机能够比柜员更快更好地
Yes, ATMs could do certain cash-handling tasks
完成某些现金处理任务
faster and better than tellers,
但这并不会使柜员多余
but that didn’t make tellers superfluous.
这增加了他们问题解决技巧和
It increased the importance of their problem-solving skills
与客户的关系的重要性
and their relationships with customers.
同理 这种规则也运用在建房
The same principle applies if we’re building a building,
诊断和照顾病患
if we’re diagnosing and caring for a patient,
或者给满屋子的高中生
or if we are teaching a class
上一节课
to a roomful of high schoolers.
随着工具的改进
As our tools improve,
技术放大了我们的效力
technology magnifies our leverage
增强了我们的专业能力
and increases the importance of our expertise
判断力和创造力的重要性
and our judgment and our creativity.
这就要说到第二个原则
And that brings me to the second principle:
永不满足
never get enough.
你可能会想 好 O形环 懂了
You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it,
意思是人们的工作会很重要
that says the jobs that people do will be important.
机器做不了 但仍需要完成
They can’t be done by machines, but they still need to be done.
但是这样的工作有多少 却不得而知
But that doesn’t tell me how many jobs there will need to be.
如果你思考这个问题 就会发现
If you think about it, isn’t it kind of self-evident
一旦我们在某些方面取得了足够的成果
that once we get sufficiently productive at something,
我们基本上就没有工作了 这不是不言而喻的吗?
we’ve basically worked our way out of a job?
1900年 全美40%的劳动力在务农
In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment was on farms.
现在 务农人数还不及2%
Today, it’s less than two percent.
为什么现在农民这么少
Why are there so few farmers today?
不是因为我们吃的更少了
It’s not because we’re eating less.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
这一个世纪以来 农业产量的提高
A century of productivity growth in farming
意味着现在两百万的农民
means that now, a couple of million farmers
能满足3.2亿国民的需求
can feed a nation of 320 million.
这是个惊人的过程 但也这意味着
That’s amazing progress,
农业上还有许多像O型环一样重要的工作
but it also means there are only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
显然 技术能消除工作
So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs.
农业仅仅是其中一个例子
Farming is only one example.
还有许多这样的例子
There are many others like it.
但是符合单个产品 服务 产业
But what’s true about a single product or service or industry
从来就不符合大部分经济体
has never been true about the economy as a whole.
我们现在从事的许多行业
Many of the industries in which we now work —
卫生 药品
health and medicine,
经济 保险
finance and insurance,
电力 IT
electronics and computing —
一个世纪前几乎不存在
were tiny or barely existent a century ago.
而当今我们花费大笔金钱的许多产业
Many of the products that we spend a lot of our money on —
空调 SUV
air conditioners, sport utility vehicles,
电脑 移动设备
computers and mobile devices —
一个世纪前要花费天价
were unattainably expensive,
或者根本就没发明出来
or just hadn’t been invented a century ago.
随着自动化给了我们的时间 拓展我们的视野
As automation frees our time, increases the scope of what is possible,
我们创造了吸引注意 占据时间
we invent new products, new ideas, new services
鼓励消费的
that command our attention,
新产品
occupy our time
新想法 新服务
and spur consumption.
你可能认为其中一些只是生活琐事
You may think some of these things are frivolous —
极限瑜伽 探险旅游
extreme yoga, adventure tourism,
精灵宝可梦GO
Pokémon GO —
我和你们意见大致相同
and I might agree with you.
但人们渴望这些 他们想为此努力
But people desire these things, and they’re willing to work hard for them.
2015年人们平均每年
The average worker in 2015
只工作17周就可以达到
wanting to attain the average living standard in 1915
1915年的生活水平
could do so by working just 17 weeks a year,
仅仅只用了一年中三分之一的时间
one third of the time.
但大多数人都不会这么做
But most people don’t choose to do that.
他们渴望能享受到高科技的好处
They are willing to work hard
而愿意努力工作
to harvest the technological bounty that is available to them.
物质的丰富从不能掩盖精神的匮乏
Material abundance has never eliminated perceived scarcity.
借用经济学家托尔斯坦·凡勃伦的一句话
In the words of economist Thorstein Veblen,
发明是需求之母
invention is the mother of necessity.
现在
Now …
如果你能接受这两条原则
So if you accept these two principles,
O型环和永不满足原则
the O-ring principle and the never-get-enough principle,
我们意见是一致的
then you agree with me.
工作会有的
There will be jobs.
但这是否意味着我们什么都不用担心呢
Does that mean there’s nothing to worry about?
自动化 职业 机器人和工作
Automation, employment, robots and jobs —
它能自己照顾自己吗?
it’ll all take care of itself?

No.
但这并不是我的论据
That is not my argument.
自动化让我们用更少的时间
Automation creates wealth
做更多的事 来创造财富
by allowing us to do more work in less time.
没有哪条经济法说明
There is no economic law
我们将充分使用财富
that says that we will use that wealth well,
这才是我们要担心的
and that is worth worrying about.
想想两个国家
Consider two countries,
挪威和沙特阿拉伯
Norway and Saudi Arabia.
都是石油盛产国
Both oil-rich nations,
他们就像拥有一口会喷钱的井
it’s like they have money spurting out of a hole in the ground.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
但是他们没有把财富
But they haven’t used that wealth equally well to foster human prosperity,
平等地投入到人类繁荣发展中
human prospering.
挪威是一个繁荣的民主主义国家
Norway is a thriving democracy.
总的来说 挪威公民一起工作、娱乐得很好
By and large, its citizens work and play well together.
其民族幸福指数
It’s typically numbered between first and fourth
可以排在前四名
in rankings of national happiness.
沙特是一个绝对的君主国
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy
许多公民缺乏自我提升的途径
in which many citizens lack a path for personal advancement.
其幸福指数位列第35
It’s typically ranked 35th among nations in happiness,
对如此富有的国家来说 排名太低了
which is low for such a wealthy nation.
相比之下
Just by way of comparison,
美国位列第12或13名
the US is typically ranked around 12th or 13th.
两国幸福指数的不同
The difference between these two countries
不在于财富
is not their wealth
也不在于科技
and it’s not their technology.
而在于他们的体制
It’s their institutions.
挪威投资建设了一个
Norway has invested to build a society
充满机遇 经济流动性更强的社会
with opportunity and economic mobility.
沙特阿拉伯则靠侵占他人的努力
Saudi Arabia has raised living standards
来提高生活水平
while frustrating many other human strivings.
两个国家都很富有
Two countries, both wealthy,
但富裕程度不同
not equally well off.
这也把我引向了我们今天面临的
And this brings me to the challenge that we face today,
摆在我们面前的自动化的挑战
the challenge that automation poses for us.
这份挑战 不是指我们即将失业
The challenge is not that we’re running out of work.
自从大萧条以来
The US has added 14 million jobs
美国增加了1400万的工作
since the depths of the Great Recession.
这个挑战是 虽然有这么多工作
The challenge is that many of those jobs
却都不是好工作
are not good jobs,
许多国民没有能力做
and many citizens cannot qualify for the good jobs
新的好工作
that are being created.
美国和许多发达国家工作的增长
Employment growth in the United States and in much of the developed world
就像是一个杠铃
looks something like a barbell
两端的砝码越来越重
with increasing poundage on either end of the bar.
一方面
On the one hand,
更高教育水平的人工资更高
you have high-education, high-wage jobs
像医生和护士、程序员和工程师
like doctors and nurses, programmers and engineers,
销售和销售经理
marketing and sales managers.
这些职位在社会中很稳定
Employment is robust in these jobs, employment growth.
相似地 低技能、低学历的工作
Similarly, employment growth is robust in many low-skill,
增长的很快 例如餐饮行业
low-education jobs like food service,
保洁 保安
cleaning, security,
家庭保健员等
home health aids.
同时 中等学历 中等工资 中级工作
Simultaneously, employment is shrinking
像蓝领的生产和技工
in many middle-education, middle-wage, middle-class jobs,
白领的文员和销售
like blue-collar production and operative positions
这些职位都在减少
and white-collar clerical and sales positions.
这份缩减背后的原因
The reasons behind this contracting middle
并不是秘密
are not mysterious.
许多中级工作
Many of those middle-skill jobs
使用易理解的规章
use well-understood rules and procedures
这些规则可以轻易的被编入软件
that can increasingly be codified in software
只需要通过电脑执行
and executed by computers.
这种氛围创造了
The challenge that this phenomenon creates,
经济学家称之为职业两极化的挑战
what economists call employment polarization,
即打破经济阶级
is that it knocks out rungs in the economic ladder,
收缩中产阶级
shrinks the size of the middle class
加剧两极分化
and threatens to make us a more stratified society.
一方面 高收入水平者以及高等教育者
On the one hand, a set of highly paid, highly educated professionals
做着有趣的工作
doing interesting work,
另一方面 大量的公民工作收入低
on the other, a large number of citizens in low-paid jobs
他们却是照顾富人舒适和健康的负责人
whose primary responsibility is to see to the comfort and health of the affluent.
这不是我关于进步的看法
That is not my vision of progress,
我怀疑你们是这么想的
and I doubt that it is yours.
但是也有些好消息
But here is some encouraging news.
过去 我们面临同样重大的经济变革
We have faced equally momentous economic transformations in the past,
我们成功地挺过来了
and we have come through them successfully.
在19世纪末和20世纪初
In the late 1800s and early 1900s,
自动化减轻了大量的农业工作——
when automation was eliminating vast numbers of agricultural jobs —
记得拖拉机吗?——
remember that tractor? —
农场主面临着失业混乱的威胁
the farm states faced a threat of mass unemployment,
一代年轻人不再被农场需要
a generation of youth no longer needed on the farm
但他们还没准备好工业生活
but not prepared for industry.
上升到这一挑战
Rising to this challenge,
他们选择了激进的做法
they took the radical step
那就是要求所有青年
of requiring that their entire youth population
呆在学校继续学习
remain in school and continue their education
直到16岁成年
to the ripe old age of 16.
当时这被称为高中运动
This was called the high school movement,
而且完全是一项高成本的事情
and it was a radically expensive thing to do.
他们不仅仅得投资学校
Not only did they have to invest in the schools,
还要投资那些没能工作的孩子
but those kids couldn’t work at their jobs.
但最终证明这是美国在20世纪做的
It also turned out to be one of the best investments
最成功的投资之一
the US made in the 20th century.
这项投资给我们带来了世界上技术最娴熟 头脑最灵活
It gave us the most skilled, the most flexible
最多产的生产力
and the most productive workforce in the world.
来看看这项投资起的作用 想象一下
To see how well this worked, imagine taking the labor force of 1899
将1899年的劳动力现在来看
and bringing them into the present.
不考虑他们强大的背景和良好的品格
Despite their strong backs and good characters,
他们大多数缺乏基本的识字和计算能力
many of them would lack the basic literacy and numeracy skills
做得绝大多数是很平凡的工作
to do all but the most mundane jobs.
他们大部分人会失业
Many of them would be unemployable.
这个例子强调的是我们体系的优越
What this example highlights is the primacy of our institutions,
特别是我们的学校
most especially our schools,
让我们收获到了
in allowing us to reap the harvest
科技繁荣的果实
of our technological prosperity.
说没有什么需要担忧的是非常愚蠢的
It’s foolish to say there’s nothing to worry about.
很明显 我们可能会做错
Clearly we can get this wrong.
如果一个世纪以前美国没有投资
If the US had not invested in its schools and in its skills
它的学校和其中的技术
a century ago with the high school movement,
我们不会那么繁荣
we would be a less prosperous,
社会缺乏流动性 也许幸福感也会降低
a less mobile and probably a lot less happy society.
但是同样愚蠢的是 我们认为我们的命运是注定的
But it’s equally foolish to say that our fates are sealed.
命运不是由机器决定
That’s not decided by the machines.
甚至也不是由市场决定
It’s not even decided by the market.
它是由我们和我们的机制决定的
It’s decided by us and by our institutions.
现在 我用一个悖论来开始这次谈话
Now, I started this talk with a paradox.
我们的机器替我们做着越来越多的本该属于我们的工作
Our machines increasingly do our work for us.
为什么却没有导致我们的劳动力多余
Why doesn’t that make our labor superfluous,
让我们的技能多余?
our skills redundant?
难道通向经济和社会地狱的道路不是
Isn’t it obvious that the road to our economic and social hell
很明显由我们自己的发明铺成的吗?
is paved with our own great inventions?
历史已经不断地回答过这个问题
History has repeatedly offered an answer to that paradox.
答案的第一个部分是科技放大了我们的效率
The first part of the answer is that technology magnifies our leverage,
提高了专业技能 判断力
increases the importance, the added value
和创造力的重要性和价值
of our expertise, our judgment and our creativity.
这就是“O型环”
That’s the O-ring.
答案的第二个部分是我们无穷的创造力
The second part of the answer is our endless inventiveness
和无止尽的欲望
and bottomless desires
意思是我们永远永远不会得到满足
means that we never get enough, never get enough.
这里总是有新的事情要做
There’s always new work to do.
在适应快速的经济变化的道路上
Adjusting to the rapid pace of technological change
真正的挑战产生了
creates real challenges,
这在我们的劳动力市场上看得最为清楚
seen most clearly in our polarized labor market
还有它们对经济的机动性带来的威胁
and the threat that it poses to economic mobility.
应对这次挑战不是自然而然的
Rising to this challenge is not automatic.
不是不花钱的
It’s not costless.
也不是简单的
It’s not easy.
但它是可行的
But it is feasible.
这里有一些令人鼓舞的消息
And here is some encouraging news.
因为我们惊人的生产力
Because of our amazing productivity,
我们富有了
we’re rich.
我们当然可以像一百年前美国人的高中运动那样
Of course we can afford to invest in ourselves and in our children
投资我们自己和我们的孩子
as America did a hundred years ago with the high school movement.
可以说 我们承担不起不这样做的后果
Arguably, we can’t afford not to.
现在 你可能会想
Now, you may be thinking,
奥顿博士已经告诉了我们一些感人的故事
Professor Autor has told us a heartwarming tale
关于遥远的过去的
about the distant past,
关于最近的过去的
the recent past,
也可能是现在的 但可能不是未来的
maybe the present, but probably not the future.
因为人人都知道现在时代不同了
Because everybody knows that this time is different.
对吧?时代是不同了吧?
Right? Is this time different?
这个时代当然不同
Of course this time is different.
每个时代都是不同的
Every time is different.
在过去二百年的许多情况下
On numerous occasions in the last 200 years,
学者和活动家已经拉响了警钟
scholars and activists have raised the alarm
认为我们脱离了工作并且使得自己变得无用
that we are running out of work and making ourselves obsolete:
例如 19世纪初的卢德派
for example, the Luddites in the early 1800s;
20世纪20年代中期的美国劳工部长詹姆斯·戴维斯
US Secretary of Labor James Davis in the mid-1920s;
1982年的诺贝尔获奖者 经济学者瓦西里·里昂剔夫
Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief in 1982;
当然 还有很多的学者
and of course, many scholars,
权威人士 技术人员
pundits, technologists
和如今的媒体数据
and media figures today.
这些预言因为我的傲慢而打击着我
These predictions strike me as arrogant.
这些自称的预言似乎在说
These self-proclaimed oracles are in effect saying,
“如果我们不去考虑未来要做什么工作
“If I can’t think of what people will do for work in the future,
那么你 我 还有我们的孩子
then you, me and our kids
也同样不会去考虑”
aren’t going to think of it either.”
我没有勇气
I don’t have the guts
接受那些否定人类创造力的预言
to take that bet against human ingenuity.
未来的一百年 我也无法告诉你
Look, I can’t tell you what people are going to do for work
人类未来会做什么工作
a hundred years from now.
但是未来不会取决于我的想象
But the future doesn’t hinge on my imagination.
如果我是1900年爱荷华州的农民
If I were a farmer in Iowa in the year 1900,
来自21世纪的经济学家的灵魂来到我的土地
and an economist from the 21st century teleported down to my field
并说“嘿 农民 你猜怎么着
and said, “Hey, guess what, farmer Autor,
在未来的一百年
in the next hundred years,
农民职业从所有职业占比40%
agricultural employment is going to fall from 40 percent of all jobs
下降到2%
to two percent
这仅仅是因为上涨的生产力
purely due to rising productivity.
你认为其他38%的人员会做什么?”
What do you think the other 38 percent of workers are going to do?”
我不可能说“噢 我知道
I would not have said, “Oh, we got this.
我们会做软件开发 放射医学
We’ll do app development, radiological medicine,
瑜伽教练 做表情包”
yoga instruction, Bitmoji.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我不可能知道
I wouldn’t have had a clue.
但我希望我有足够的智慧说出
But I hope I would have had the wisdom to say,
“哇 务农就业下降95%
“Wow, a 95 percent reduction in farm employment
食物没有短缺
with no shortage of food.
这是惊人的进展
That’s an amazing amount of progress.
我希望人类能够有卓越的行为
I hope that humanity finds something remarkable to do
来面对这些繁荣”
with all of that prosperity.”
总的来说 这些已经有了
And by and large, I would say that it has.
谢谢大家
Thank you very much.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

自动化会让我们失业吗

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收集自网络

翻译译者

Stacey

审核员

审核员YX

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th3nnEpITz0

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