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为什么你总认为自己是正确的——即使你真的错了 – 译学馆
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为什么你总认为自己是正确的——即使你真的错了

Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

我想让你们想象一下
So I’d like you to imagine for a moment
你是一个身处激烈战争中的士兵
that you’re a soldier in the heat of battle.
也许你是一个罗马步兵或者中世纪的弓箭手
Maybe you’re a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer
或者是一个祖鲁勇士
or maybe you’re a Zulu warrior.
不管你是处在怎样的时代和战场 有些东西是相同的
Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.
你的肾上腺素上升
Your adrenaline is elevated,
而你的行动源于那些最原始的条件反射
and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
那种出于保护自己和战友
reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side
并打败敌人的需求的条件反射
and to defeat the enemy.
现在 再想象一下 扮演一个完全不同的角色
So now, I’d like you to imagine playing a very different role,
那就是侦察员
that of the scout.
侦察员的工作不是攻击或者防守
The scout’s job is not to attack or defend.
侦察员的工作是认清形势
The scout’s job is to understand.
侦察员是那些走出营地
The scout is the one going out,
去测定地形、识别出可能的障碍的人
mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.
侦察员也许很希望 刚好在合适的位置有一座桥
And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there’s a bridge
可以跨过某条河
in a convenient location across a river.
但更重要的是 侦察员想要弄清楚那里到底有什么
But above all, the scout wants to know what’s really there,
越精确越好
as accurately as possible.
在一支精良的队伍中 士兵和侦察员都是必不可少的
And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.
但是你也可以把它们 各自想象为一种思维模式
But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset —
一种关于我们如何在日常生活中处理
a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas
信息和想法的比喻
in our daily lives.
今天我将要讨论的是 不管是拥有好的判断力
What I’m going to argue today is that having good judgment,
做出正确的预测 还是做出好的决策
making accurate predictions, making good decisions,
几乎都跟你处于哪种思维模式相关
is mostly about which mindset you’re in.
为了举例说明这两种思维模式
To illustrate these mindsets in action,
我将带你们回到19世纪法国的一个地方
I’m going to take you back to 19th-century France,
在那里 这张看起来很普通的稿件
where this innocuous-looking piece of paper
引发了历史上最大的政治丑闻之一
launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.
它是在1984年 被法国总参谋部的军官发现的
It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.
被撕碎了扔在一个废纸篓里
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
但是当他们把它拼接起来后
but when they pieced it back together,
发现他们中间有人
they discovered that someone in their ranks
在向德国出卖军事机密
had been selling military secrets to Germany.
因此他们开展了深入的调查
So they launched a big investigation,
然后他们的怀疑很快集中到了这个人身上
and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,
阿尔弗勒德·德雷福斯
Alfred Dreyfus.
他没有过任何不光彩的记录
He had a sterling record,
没做过什么坏事 也没有所谓的动机
no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.
但是德雷福斯是军队里 那个级别中的唯一犹太军官
But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
并且不幸的是 那时的法军非常地反犹太
and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
他们将德雷福斯的笔迹跟那张纸上的对照
They compared Dreyfus’s handwriting to that on the memo
然后得出了笔迹一致的结论
and concluded that it was a match,
尽管外面的笔迹鉴定专家
even though outside professional handwriting experts
对此持怀疑态度
were much less confident in the similarity,
但也于事无补
but never mind that.
他们搜查了德雷福斯的寓所
They went and searched Dreyfus’s apartment,
寻找他从事间谍活动的蛛丝马迹
looking for any signs of espionage.
他们翻遍了他的文件 但一无所获
They went through his files, and they didn’t find anything.
这使他们更加确信德雷福斯不仅有罪
This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
而且还很狡猾 因为很明显在他们搜查之前
but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence
他就隐藏了所有的证据
before they had managed to get to it.
接下来 他们审查了他的个人历史
Next, they went and looked through his personal history
寻找任何能表明他有罪的细节
for any incriminating details.
他们跟他的老师谈话
They talked to his teachers,
发现他在学校学过外语
they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,
这清楚地表明了一种想要在以后的生活中
which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments
跟外国政府相勾结的愿望
later in life.
老师还说德雷福斯的记忆力很好
His teachers also said that Dreyfus had a good memory,
这不是非常可疑吗?
which was highly suspicious, right?
因为间谍需要记住很多东西
You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.
因此经过审讯 德雷福斯被判有罪
So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.
然后 他们把他带到了公共广场
Afterwards, they took him out into this public square
仪式性地撕下了他制服上的徽章
and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform
并折断了他的佩剑
and broke his sword in two.
这件事被称作德雷福斯冤案
This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.
他们判处他终身监禁
And they sentenced him to life imprisonment
并将其押送到被称为魔鬼岛的地方服役
on the aptly named Devil’s Island,
是个远离南美洲海岸贫瘠的岩石小岛
which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.
在那里 他一个人孤零零地生活
So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,
给法国政府写了一封又一封的信
writing letters and letters to the French government
乞求他们重审他的案子 并希望通过重审获得清白
begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.
但是在大多数情形下 法国政府都认为这件事已经结案
But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.
在德雷福斯事件中 让我真正感兴趣的一点是
One thing that’s really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair
为什么这些军官会如此确信
is this question of why the officers were so convinced
德雷福斯是有罪的
that Dreyfus was guilty.
我是说 你可能以为他们是在给他设套
I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,
他们在故意地诬陷他
that they were intentionally framing him.
但是历史学家却不这样认为
But historians don’t think that’s what happened.
据我们所知
As far as we can tell,
这些军官由衷地相信德雷福斯是有罪的
the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
这也就会使你感到好奇:
Which makes you wonder:
如果在只有微不足道的证据的情况下
What does it say about the human mind
我们就可以给一个人定罪
that we can find such paltry evidence
那么这对人类的思维来说意味着什么?
to be compelling enough to convict a man?
然而 这就是科学家 称之为“动机性推理”的一个案例
Well, this is a case of what scientists call “motivated reasoning.”
正是这种存在于我们无意识的动机
It’s this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,
以及我们的欲望和恐惧
our desires and fears,
塑造了我们解读信息的方式
shape the way we interpret information.
有些信息和想法 感觉就像是我们的盟友
Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.
我们希望它们能赢 我们想要保护它们
We want them to win. We want to defend them.
还有些信息和想法感觉就像是敌人
And other information or ideas are the enemy,
我们就想要打垮它们
and we want to shoot them down.
这就是为什么我把动机性推理 称作“士兵型思维模式”
So this is why I call motivated reasoning, “soldier mindset.”
可能你们大部分人从来都没有做过
Probably most of you have never persecuted
以叛国罪去迫害一个 法籍犹太军官这样的事
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
没错吧
I assume,
但很可能你关注过体育或者政治新闻 因此你大概注意过
but maybe you’ve followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed
举个例子来说 当裁判判你支持的
that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,
队伍犯规时
for example,
你会很积极地去找理由 证明他的判罚是错的
you’re highly motivated to find reasons why he’s wrong.
但是当裁判判对方犯规时——太棒了!
But if he judges that the other team committed a foul — awesome!
判得很正确 没必要深究了
That’s a good call, let’s not examine it too closely.
也许你读过一些对于有关政策
Or, maybe you’ve read an article or a study
有争议的文章或研究报告
that examined some controversial policy,
比如说关于死刑的
like capital punishment.
就像研究人员已经证实的一样
And, as researchers have demonstrated,
如果你支持死刑
if you support capital punishment
而研究的结果却表明 它并不能有效减少犯罪
and the study shows that it’s not effective,
那么你会很积极地寻找各种理由
then you’re highly motivated to find all the reasons
去证明这项研究有不妥之处
why the study was poorly designed.
但是如果它表明死刑能够有效减少犯罪
But if it shows that capital punishment works,
那你就会认可这项研究
it’s a good study.
反之 如果你反对死刑 也一样
And vice versa: if you don’t support capital punishment, same thing.
我们的判断无意识地受到
Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,
个人喜好的强烈影响
by which side we want to win.
而且这种现象是普遍存在的
And this is ubiquitous.
它影响着我们如何看待健康和人际关系
This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,
如何决定投谁的票
how we decide how to vote,
以及怎样看待公平或道德
what we consider fair or ethical.
关于动机性推理或者说士兵型思维模式
What’s most scary to me about motivated reasoning
最让我觉得可怕的一点是
or soldier mindset,
它受潜意识影响之深
is how unconscious it is.
我们认为自己是客观公正的
We can think we’re being objective and fair-minded
但结果却是毁掉了一个无辜者的一生
and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.
然而 幸运的是 对于德雷福斯来说 一切还没结束
However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.
这是皮卡尔上校
This is Colonel Picquart.
他是法军中的另一个高级军官
He’s another high-ranking officer in the French Army,
像大多数人一样 他也认为德雷福斯有罪
and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
跟军队中大多数人也一样 他至少表面上是反犹太的
Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
但是在某个时间点上 皮卡尔开始怀疑:
But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:
“如果我们所有人都错怪了德雷福斯呢?”
“What if we’re all wrong about Dreyfus?”
当时的情况是 他发现了一些证据
What happened was, he had discovered evidence
表明德国间谍的活动还在继续
that the spying for Germany had continued,
即便是在德雷福斯入狱之后
even after Dreyfus was in prison.
他还发现军队中另一个军官的笔迹
And he had also discovered that another officer in the army
跟那张纸上的笔迹完全匹配
had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,
比德雷福斯的笔迹更加相符
much closer than Dreyfus’s handwriting.
因此他带着这些疑点找到他的上级
So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,
令人沮丧的是 他们要么不在乎
but to his dismay, they either didn’t care
要么提出一些精心编造 想当然的理由 去解释他的发现
or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,
比如说 “嗯 你的发现刚好证明另一个间谍
like, “Well, all you’ve really shown, Picquart, is that there’s another spy
模仿了德雷福斯的笔迹
who learned how to mimic Dreyfus’s handwriting,
并且接替了德雷福斯的间谍位置
and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.
但是德雷福斯仍然是有罪的”
But Dreyfus is still guilty.”
最终 皮卡尔让德雷福斯重获清白
Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.
但是花了他10年的时间
But it took him 10 years,
而且在这期间 他自己也以对军队不忠的罪名
and for part of that time, he himself was in prison
被投入了监狱
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
很多人觉得 在这个故事中 皮卡尔算不上真正的英雄
A lot of people feel like Picquart can’t really be the hero of this story
因为他反犹太 我也同意这是他不好的一点
because he was an anti-Semite and that’s bad, which I agree with.
但就我个人而言 正是因为他反犹太
But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
才使得他的行为更令人软佩
actually makes his actions more admirable,
因为他跟那些同僚带有相同的偏见
because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased
也有相同的理由去倾向于有罪结论
as his fellow officers,
但是他那种找出并维护真相的动力 战胜了一切
but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.
所以对我而言
So to me,
皮卡尔就是我称之为 “侦察员型思维模式”中的典型代表
Picquart is a poster child for what I call “scout mindset.”
这不是非让两个想法分出输赢不可
It’s the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,
而是尽可能诚实和准确地
but just to see what’s really there
找出事实真相的一种驱动力
as honestly and accurately as you can,
即使真相并不那么令人赏心悦目
even if it’s not pretty or convenient or pleasant.
这种思维模式是我个人所推崇的
This mindset is what I’m personally passionate about.
过去几年我一直在调查并想找出
And I’ve spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out
侦察员型思维模式的成因
what causes scout mindset.
为什么有些人 至少在有些时候
Why are some people, sometimes at least,
能够去掉自己内心的歧视、偏见和倾向
able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations
而是尽可能尝试着
and just try to see the facts and the evidence
客观地找出事实和证据
as objectively as they can?
而答案就是情感
And the answer is emotional.
就像士兵型思维模式是出于
So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions
像防御性和部落主义这样的情感
like defensiveness or tribalism,
侦察员型思维模式也一样
scout mindset is, too.
只不过是来源于不同的情感
It’s just rooted in different emotions.
例如 侦察员都有很强的好奇心
For example, scouts are curious.
他们更可能会因为
They’re more likely to say they feel pleasure
获得新的信息
when they learn new information
或渴望解开一个谜题而感到开心
or an itch to solve a puzzle.
他们会对那些与他们的预期不相符的
They’re more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something
事情更感兴趣
that contradicts their expectations.
侦察员也拥有不同的价值观
Scouts also have different values.
他们可能会觉得
They’re more likely to say they think it’s virtuous
检验自己的信仰是一件善事
to test your own beliefs,
而可能不会说那些改变想法的人
and they’re less likely to say that someone who changes his mind
看起来很懦弱
seems weak.
总之 侦察员是以事实为根据的
And above all, scouts are grounded,
也就是说他们的自我价值观
which means their self-worth as a person
不是跟他们在某个事件上的 对错绑在一起的
isn’t tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.
所以他们可能相信死刑能减少犯罪
So they can believe that capital punishment works.
但如果研究表明它不能 他们可能会说
If studies come out showing that it doesn’t, they can say,
“呵 看起来是我错了 但这并不说明我坏或者蠢”
“Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn’t mean I’m bad or stupid.”
这就是研究人员所发现的特征
This cluster of traits is what researchers have found —
而且我也发现了
and I’ve also found anecdotally —
可以预测好的判断
predicts good judgment.
而我想要强调的关于这些特征的关键点是
And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits
它们根本上来说跟你有多聪明
is that they’re primarily not about how smart you are
或者你知道多少无关
or about how much you know.
事实上 它们跟智商完全无关
In fact, they don’t correlate very much with IQ at all.
它们跟你的感觉有关
They’re about how you feel.
我要引用圣埃克苏佩里的一句话
There’s a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
他是《小王子》的作者
He’s the author of “The Little Prince.”
他说 “如果你想造一艘船
He said, “If you want to build a ship,
不要雇人去收集木头 不要发号施令
don’t drum up your men to collect wood and give orders
也不要分配任务
and distribute the work.
而是去激发他们对海洋的渴望”
Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.”
换句话说 我认为
In other words, I claim,
如果我们真的想提高判断力 不管是作为个人
if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals
还是作为社会
and as societies,
我们最需要的不是更多逻辑上
what we need most is not more instruction in logic
修辞上、概率上或者经济上的指导
or rhetoric or probability or economics,
即便这些东西也都很有价值
even though those things are quite valuable.
而我们要用好这些原理 最需要的
But what we most need to use those principles well
就是侦察员型思维模式
is scout mindset.
我们需要改变我们感觉事物的方式
We need to change the way we feel.
当我们注意到自己可能 在某件事上出错了的时候
We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed
我们要感到自豪而不是羞愧
when we notice we might have been wrong about something.
当我们遇到一些与 我们的信仰相冲突的信息时
We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive
我们要学会感到好奇而不是抵触
when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.
因此我想要留给你们的问题是:
So the question I want to leave you with is:
你最渴望什么?
What do you most yearn for?
你是渴望保护你的信仰?
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
还是渴望尽自己所能去看清这个世界?
Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?
谢谢
Thank you.
[掌声]
(Applause)

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