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成功人士的建议一定要听吗?

Why you shouldn't trust successful people's advice

你是否曾看过这种文章
Have you seen these type of articles before?
比如 成功人士必作的12件事
Things like, “12 Things Successful People Do Differently”.
抑或 “来自世界上最成功人士的13个秘诀”
Or, “13 Tips From The World’s Most Successful People”
它们的逻辑是:这些秘诀既然使成功人士获得成功 那么也肯定会对你有所帮助
The logic is: if it helped them get success, it should at least be somewhat helpful to you, right?
但是 这种逻辑从根本上来说是漏洞百出的
Yet, this type of logic is fundamentally flawed
甚至会让你更加不成功
And could very well make you worse off.
为了验证这些成功案例是如何轻易愚弄我们
To show just how easy it is to get fooled by these success stories
先看看这个简单的骗局
Imagine this simple scam:
首先 想办法得到50000个人的邮箱地址
First, get the email address of 50.000 people
然后 告诉他们你是避险基金的员工 能够准确预测出股票市场的趋向
Next, tell them you’re part of a hedge fund that can accurately predict the stock market.
现在我们来看看这个把戏:
Now, here is the trick:
跟其中一半的人说股票市场会上涨
To half of them, say that the stock markets will go up
捏造一些合理的原因解释为什么上涨
and make up some reasonable explanation as for why.
告诉另一半的人股票市场会下跌
To the other half, say the stock markets will go down
结果就是股票要么上涨要么下跌
Now, by the end of the week the stocks will move either up or down.
假设股票上涨
Let’s say the stocks moved up.
接下来剔除那些收到错误预测的人
All you need to do is to cull the half which received the wrong prediction
这样 在剩下的25000人里面 再告知其中一半的人股票会上涨 告知另一半的人会下跌
So, out of the remaining 25.000, once again tell half that the stocks will rise and the other half that it will fall.
周末结果出来后 再次剔除收到错误预测的那一半的人 不断重复
At the end of the week, cull the half with the wrong prediction and repeat.
最后 在第10周周末 你就会向50个人证明
Ultimately, by the end of week 10 you would have shown around 50 people
你确实能够准确预测股票市场连续十周的变化趋势
that you can accurately predict the stock markets 10 weeks in a row.
听起来很厉害对不对
Sounds pretty impressive, right?
事实上 如果他们真的在事后委托10000美元到你的避险基金
In fact, if they’d then entrusted 10.000 dollars to your hedge fund
你将会从中获利50万美元
you would’ve run away with half a million dollars
你现在可能会觉得“这些肯定不会在实际生活中发生!”
Now, you might be thinking “Surely this doesn’t happen in real life!”
但 确实会
Well, it does.
我们就是那筛选出来的50个人
But we are those 50 remaining people
因为我们很羡慕这些成功的人
Because we are so in awe of these successful people
因此甚至会忽略掉一些非常关键的因素
We don’t even consider that there might be some other huge factors at play,
比如:运气!
such as: luck!
举个例子 假设你想要得到一些理财建议
For example, let’s say you wanted financial advice.
宣传人员通常会建议 冒险才能发家致富
One hyper commonly advice, given on how to get rich is to take risks.
因为即便你失败了 你也仍能从失败中得到教训
Because even if you fail, you can still learn from your failures.
看上去有道理 对吧
That makes sense, right?
可是 想想那些破产的人
However, consider all the people who are bankrupt.
毫无疑问 他们也有冒险
No doubt, they took risks too.
那么 他们为什么没成功呢
So, where’s their success?
显然 如果我们只听成功人士的说辞
Clearly, if we only listen to the winner’s story,
就不会听到破产人士的忠告
there’s no balancing force of bankrupt people telling us to be more careful
再来个例子:<追求卓越>
Another example: take a look at “In search of excellence”
这本书销量超过三百万册!
a book which sold over 3 million copies!
里面分析了50家优秀企业
It analyses about 50 excellent companies
总结出企业优秀的八大特征
and identifies 8 common traits that propelled them to success
然而 从那时起 除了有35家企业上市
Yet, since then, out of the 35 companies which are publicly traded
20家企业在平均市价之下
20 are falling below the market average.
甚至有5家破产
5 even went bankrupt.
这就回到原来的问题:这些企业是真的卓越吗
Which back to the question: were these companies actually ‘excellent’?
或者说 只是因为这50家企业比大多数企业幸运?
Or perhaps: were some of these 50 companies just the lucky ones out of a pool of 50.000?
这样的话 那为什么还有人会听他们的建议?
and if so, why should anyone listen to their advice?
从这里你可以看出问题所在:
From here you can see what the problem is:
如果你只是听取所谓成功人士的建议
If you only take advice of the so called successful people
忽略所有的失败 就会被现实严重扭曲的观点打击
and ignore all the failures, you’re going to be left with a heavily distorted view of reality
这就是“幸存者偏差”
This is known as ‘survivorship bias’
除此之外 幸存者偏差不止适用于金融领域
Furthermore, it doesn’t just apply to financial advice.
假设你想要一些交往方面的建议
Let’s say you wanted some relationship advice.
通常会向一些已经结婚40年的幸福夫妻问道:
Naturally, you’ll search for some happily married couple of 40 years and ask:
“维持你们婚姻长久的秘诀是什么?”
‘What’s your secret to marriage?’
他们也会给出合乎情理的建议 诸如:专注于伴侣的优点而非缺点
They’ll give sensible advice too, like:focus on your partners’ positives rather than the negatives
确实 这听起来是不错的建议
Now, sure, this sounds like good advice.
甚至也会起作用!
It might even work!
然而 仅在你既考虑幸福婚姻
Yet, it’s only when you factor in both the happily married
也考虑不幸离婚的前提下
and the bitterly divorced
才能够知道到底是什么在起作用
that you get a better picture of what’s really going on.
看下这幅折线图
Take a look at this graph.
关于2500对有10年婚龄的德国夫妻的调查
It followed lives of about 2.500 German participants for 10 years.
如你所见 那些婚姻幸福的夫妻比刚结婚时要更加幸福
As you can see, those who are happily married are just happier to begin with
甚至更幸福于他们刚认识伴侣的时候
even before they met their husbands and wives.
他们就已经过着幸福生活
They were already leading happier lives.
另一方面 那些以离婚为终的自然比以前更加伤心
On the other hand, those who ended up divorcing were naturally more depressed.
这不是现在人们所持有的观念
Now, this isn’t something people realize.
少数人会说:“我的婚姻幸福是通常是因为婚后的生活”
Not many would say: ‘I’m happy with my marriage because I’m just happier about stuff in general’
看似是一个重要因素
And yet, this seems like such an important factor.
在改善关系之前我们应该专注于改变自己
It suggests we should focus on improving ourselves before we think of improving our relationships.
综上 结果如下:
So, here’s the bottom line:
谈及生活中复杂的事情时 比如婚姻和致富
When it comes to complex things in our life, like marriage and getting rich
没有人确切地知道成功路上到底需要什么
No one really knows what it takes to become successful.
所以 听到来自成功人士的建议时
Therefore, when listening to the advice of successful people
要学会质疑 确保自己不被愚弄
be skeptical and make sure you aren’t getting fooled.
并且 多思考失败的原因 也许你会学到更多
Instead, consider the failures and perhaps you’ll learn more.

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视频概述

书籍,杂志报刊,新闻,视频,到处都有成功人士分享的经验与建议,你是否一字不落都听进去啦?有没有成功呀?没有?!来来来,我告诉你为什么!

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收集自网络

翻译译者

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译学馆审核员B

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k7jeQQdqPA

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