The Universe is incredibly big and seems full of potential for life,
宇宙无比浩瀚 充满了成千上万的星球
with billions of habitable planets.
而这些星球上似乎都潜藏着无数居民
If an advanced civilization had the technology to travel between the stars,
如果某个先进的文明拥有在星球之间
at just 0.1% of the speed of light,
以0.1%的光速旅行的科技
It could colonize our galaxy in roughly 100 million years,
它就能在1亿年里殖民我们整个银河系
which is not that long
1亿年并不算长
given the billions of years the milky way has existed –
毕竟银河系已经存在了几十亿年
so in principle any spacefaring civilization
那么原则上所有在太空旅行的文明
should be able to spread rapidly
应该都能快速地
over huge sectors of the galaxy.
在银河系各大区域间穿行
And yet we see nothing, hear nothing,
但目前为止我们还没有发现任何动静
the universe seems empty,
整个宇宙似乎空荡荡的
devoid of others.
除了我们没有别人
This is the Fermi Paradox,
这是一个费米悖论
which we have discussed in more detail in other videos.
我们在其他视频已经讲解过很多了
Confronted with the seemingly empty universe,
面对着似乎空荡荡的宇宙
humanity faces a dilemma.
人类陷入一个进退两难的局面
We desperately want to know
虽然我们非常想知道我们
if we are alone in the Milky Way.
是不是银河系里唯一的生命
We want to call out
我们想大喊
and reveal ourselves
向所有观察这片宇宙的
to anyone watching
生命宣告我们的存在
but that could be the last thing we ever do.
但这可能会让我们立刻灭亡
Because maybe the universe is not empty.
因为宇宙可能确实还有其它文明存在
Maybe it’s full of civilizations
宇宙可能充满了各种文明
but they are hiding from each other.
但大家都躲着彼此
Maybe the civilizations that attracted attention in the past
那些曾引起了其它文明注意的文明
were wiped away by invisible arrows.
可能已经被无形的箭清除了
This is the Dark Forest solution
这就是针对费米悖论的一种解释
to the Fermi paradox.
黑森林法则
科学坚果
The Way Of Life
生命之道
The hunter awakes in his hiding place
一个猎人在藏身之处醒来
and carefully listens for suspicious noises
起床之前先仔细听了听
from the thick undergrowth before he gets up.
来自地下深处的可疑声音
Another night has passed without incident.
他又度过了一个平安的夜晚
The forest is dark and full of fog.
森林一片漆黑 笼罩在浓雾里
He considers calling out to others
他想大喊大叫 让其它生命听见
to end his loneliness
让自己不再孤独
but stops himself at the last moment.
但最后一刻他迟疑了
What if they are like him?
万一这些生命也像他一样呢？
All living things seek to survive,
当所有生命都在努力活下去
secure resources and multiply.
寻找安全的住所和繁衍的机会
Their greatest obstacle are
那么它们最大的障碍就是
other living things that share the same objective.
其它有着同样目标的生命
Competition between species favored the survival of beings with advantageous traits.
有优势的种族在物种竞争中更容易活下来
Our ancestors were inventive, competitive,
我们的祖先善于发明创造 竞争力强
expansionist and greedy for resources,
他们是扩张主义者 渴求更多的资源
which led them to winning the competition for our planet.
这些让他们成为了地球上生命竞争的赢家
Today, most other animals are so
现在大部分动物非常
utterly at our mercy
仰仗我们的仁慈
that we wipe out about a dozen species a day,
毕竟我们每天都在让很多物种灭绝
just as an unintentional byproduct
但我们并不是故意的
of how we like to run things.
这只是我们做事方式产生的附加效应
But humans are more than individuals.
但人类也不能一概而论
From us cultures emerge,
我们中产生了各种各样的文化
that also compete with each other.
相互间也存在竞争
Competitive and expansionary cultures spread faster and further
竞争力强 主张扩张的文化蔓延得更快更远
and merge with, subdue or destroy others.
然后会吞并 压制或者摧毁其他文化
If we look at our history it becomes clear: We are dangerous.
回顾历史我们就会发现： 我们是危险的
Not just to others
不仅对其它物种是危险的
but also to ourselves.
对同胞也是如此
Our human nature has driven us to take over every corner of our planet
人的天性驱使着我们占领地球的每个角落
and soon we will look to the stars,
然后我们把目光投向其它星球
both to expand our domain
想继续扩张我们的领土
and ensure access to ever more resources.
获得更多的资源
And then we might stumble upon
于是我们可能会跟其它同样
others trying to do the same thing.
这么做的生命撞个跟头
It is likely that the competition of life
生命的竞争很有可能
also takes place on far away planets,
也在遥远的星球上发生着
so it is logical to assume that an alien civilization
因此可以合理假设 另一个星球上
that came to dominate their planet
也有一个称霸全球的文明
would be in some regards similar to us
类似我们在地球上的崛起
But if they are similar to us,
但如果它们的天性跟我们类似
they, too, may be dangerous.
那它们可能也是危险的
The Implication
以己度人
As the hunter sneaks through the dark forest all alone
当猎人独自在这座黑森林里潜行
he knows that there might be others like him.
他觉得别的生命可能也在这么做
He can’t know their intentions,
他不清楚它们的意图
if they are aggressive or not.
不清楚它们是否带有攻击性
The hunter knows he would kill
但猎人明白 为了自己的安全
to ensure his own survival,
他肯定会去杀戮
so he has to assume that they would too.
所以他认为其它生命也会如此
And it might be that if he stumbles upon another hunter,
而如果他和其他猎人撞到了一起
the one that shoots first survives.
也许先开枪的那个才能活下来
None of this means that conflict is unavoidable.
但这些并不意味着冲突是不可避免的
So far the progress of the modern world
随着现代文明发展至今
seems to have made us more peaceful,
我们似乎变得更和平了
not more violent.
并不是更暴力
Maybe this is true for other civilizations too,
对于其它文明来说可能也是这么回事
that eventually progress means less conflict,
这样发展下去 冲突会最终会越来越少
not more.
不会增加了
Different alien civilizations also should vary
不同的外星文明的性情也应各有不同
from the mild and peaceful
有的温和 和平
to the malevolent and militaristic.
有的恶毒 好战
The existential problem we are facing
我们所面临的生存难题是
is that when we meet others between the stars,
当我们与它们在星球间相遇
we have no way of telling who is peaceful or aggressive
我们无法判断它们是和平的还是攻击性的
and what their true intentions are.
也无法知道对方真正的目的
Similarly, they might not understand
类似地 它们也不知道我们的目的
or trust our intentions
即便我们告诉它们
even if we tell them that we are peaceful.
我们是和平的 它们也无法相信我们
On top of that,
除此之外
if we did discover another civilization,
如果我们发现了另一个文明
and they discovered us,
它们也发现了我们
the light years between us
我们之间隔着光年的距离
would mean years of communication delay.
意味着交流会有几年的延迟
Both sides would be in a state of uncertainty,
我们两方都会陷入一种不确定
wondering if the wisest move is to just attack,
琢磨是否直接进攻才是最明智的做法
because there’s another serious issue:
因为还有一个严峻的问题：
technological explosions and first strike advantage.
科技碾压的可能性和先发制人的重要性
We do not know
虽然我们不知道
where the limits of technology are,
彼此科技水平达到了哪种程度
but we do know how much technological progress matters in war.
但我们都清楚科技在战争中的重要性
A few hundred or thousand years
一场战争看似胜负难见分晓
can turn conflict with uncertain results
但只要某方科技领先个几百或几千年
into a one sided massacre.
战争就会变成一场单方面的屠杀
Caesar’s legions would stand no chance
凯撒大帝的军队在拿破仑军面前
against Napoleon’s army
就没有一点胜算
with their cannons and muskets,
毕竟对方有大炮和步枪
which would be eradicated by artillery from the First World War,
而拿破仑军又会在一战的炮火中灰飞烟灭
which would not stand a chance against
然后一战的军队面对如今的
today’s drones and guided missiles.
无人战斗机和导弹也毫无招架之力
So the power level of different civilizations
所以不同文明的科技水平可能会
may vary massively
差个十万八千里
and even if not,
即使没有差那么远
between the time it takes us to detect another civilization
当我们花时间找到了另一个文明
and us saying hi
还没来得及打招呼
we might already be hopelessly behind on the tech tree,
在科技这棵树上 我们可能已远远落后了
which is bad enough,
这已经很糟了
but the nature of interstellar conflict makes this worse.
但在星际战争的自然法则下会更糟
If your opponent is light years away,
如果你的敌人在几光年以外
sending an invasion fleet takes so long
进攻的舰队会花很长时间才能到达
by the time it arrives,
当舰队到达了
it might be hopeless obsolete
可能它早就过时了 毫无指望
So, war between civilizations
因此 文明之间的战争
might be just about eliminating the other
可能就意味着要毁灭对方
to remove an existential threat to yourself.
这样才能消除它们对你的生存威胁
Someone else who might be so scared of you
出于对你的恐惧
that they attack the first chance they get.
对方可能一有机会就会先发动攻击
In this environment, the only way to guarantee a win
在这种情况下 获胜的唯一方式就
is to strike with such force and speed
是猛烈而迅速地攻击
that the target has no chance of survival or time to counter-attack
让对方一击致命 彻底失去还手的机会
or escape to seek revenge later.
也能防止它们逃跑以后伺机报复
The stakes are the highest possible
这样的赌注才有最大的胜算
with no room for error.
也不会出错
If we assume that the majority of civilizations live on planets
若我们假设这些星球上的大部分文明
that leaves them pretty vulnerable –
是非常脆弱的
all you need to do is throw something massive
那你只需要扔个大型武器
at a planet to make it uninhabitable.
让它们星球无法居住就行了
So the ultimate interplanetary annihilation weapon
因此 星际歼灭战的终极武器
is probably something like a Relativistic Kill Vehicle –
可能是某种相对论层面 类似于杀伤器的
a missile shot at a planet at a significant fraction of the speed of light.
以接近光速的速度在星际间穿行的导弹
For example,
举例来说
a missile the size of a person going 95% the speed of light
一颗速度能达到95%光速 人体大小的导弹
has as much energy as all nuclear bombs on earth.
能量相当于地球上所有核弹的总和
If you shot a few dozen at the civilization
如果你向想除掉的文明发送
you wanted to wipe out,
几十颗这样的导弹
success would be fairly certain –
胜利就一定是你的
even a single hit would suffice.
甚至一次袭击就够了
This is not that absurd of an idea –
这不是一个奇思妙想
a civilization only slightly above us
一个文明只要在卡尔达舍夫等级上
on the Kardashev scale
稍微超越我们一点
would have enough energy to send multiple strikes against every planet
就有足够的能量对任何疑似有生命存在的
it suspects of harboring life.
星球发动数次导弹攻击
What makes these weapons so sinister
它们对首次攻击特别重视
is how much they favor a first strike,
所以这些武器如此致命
since they would be so fast that it might be impossible
以至于速度快到 一旦发射
to protect yourself effectively against them once they’re launched.
你几乎无法有效防御 保护自己
Conflict between civilizations may not be lengthy affairs
文明之间的战争可能不会花太长时间
but rapid winner takes all situations,
动作快的那方就能掌控局面获胜
where the first one to shoot wins.
所以先开枪的人就是赢家
This makes any civilization
如此 任何文明对于其它
an existential threat to any other.
文明来说 都是一种生存威胁
And if every civilization is
而一旦每一个文明都是
an existential threat to every other,
另一个文明的生存威胁
there may be only two kinds of civilizations out there:
那么文明就只会有两种：
quiet ones and
保持安静的文明 和
dead ones.
被毁灭的文明
So what should we do?
所以我们应该怎么做？
So, should we worry?
我们需要担心吗？
It is unlikely that anybody
目前还没有迹象表明有谁
has noticed humanity yet.
已经注意到了人类文明
The radio signals we’ve transmitted in the last 100 years
这100年里 我们发射的无线信号
traveled a relatively tiny distance
只能传输相对短的距离
and have long decayed into unreadable noise.
之后就会逐渐衰退成无法辨别的噪声
At our technological stage,
以我们目前的科技水平
if we don’t actively try to get noticed
如果我们不主动去吸引注意力
and if nobody specifically
且也没有谁特地来
looks at our pretty unremarkable solar system,
观察我们这个毫不起眼的太阳系
we’ll stay hidden.
我们就能一直隐藏下去
But one day we will venture into space in a serious way
但当有一天我们打算正式去探索太空了
and need to consider these kinds of questions again.
我们就需要重新思考这些问题
We don’t know if there are others
因为我们不知是否有其它生命
or if we are going through the forest alone.
还是森林里只有我们踽踽独行
But we have no way of knowing for sure.
而我们并没有办法去证实所有的猜想
For the time being, it seems the best we can do
眼下 似乎对于我们最好的选择
is to carefully listen.
就是仔细地聆听
And even if we see others step into
即使我们发现有文明
a clearing and make themselves known,
走到空地上暴露了自己
we should not reply right away
我们也不该马上做出回应
but carefully watch them from the undergrowth.
而应躲在丛林里仔细观察它们
Perhaps we are also thinking about this all wrong
或许我们全部想错了 这些不过是
by allowing our primitive brain,
我们大脑的一种本能的影射
that evolved in the context
毕竟人类的进化
of the gruesome competition of life,
就经历了残酷的生命竞争
to conjure fears of predatory aliens all around us.
所以我们会害怕周围有来自外星的捕食者
Maybe the fact that we are looking at the universe like this
也许我们现在把宇宙看作“黑暗森林”
is a sign that we are not grown up
是因为我们还未开化
yet as a species.
算不上成熟的物种
There could be a friendly, welcoming
那些外星文明可能是个
community of alien civilizations
友好包容的大社区
waiting to hear from us when we are ready.
等我们准备好了 它们就会欢迎我们
As for now, the good news is there is actually little we need to do.
现在 好的是我们实际上什么都做不了
We just need to be thoughtful about the signals
我们只需要在向银河发送信号时
we send out into the galaxy,
再深思熟虑一点
we need to watch the sky
我们要仰望天空
and learn more about our galaxy,
探索更多星系的奥秘
our forest.
探索我们的“森林”
Because whatever the nature of our forest is,
因为不论这座“森林”崇尚哪种自然法则
full of dangers or friends,
是充满了危机还是伙伴
or nobody at all,
或者根本就没有其它生命
only careful observation can tell.
这些都要靠细致地观察才能知晓
So let’s do that.
所以我们一门心思地去观察吧
At last the hunter reaches a clearing
最后猎人来到一片空地
and finds a comfortable position.
找了一个舒适的地方待着
Slowly the sun melts the fog away,
太阳缓缓地驱散了浓雾
lost in thought he admires the vegetation until suddenly
他看着周围迷人的植物入了神 直到突然
– he is eye to eye with another hunter,
他跟另一个猎人眼对眼望到了一起
frozen in terror just like himself.
他们两个都一动不敢动
His mind is racing, considering all the different options.
猎人飞速思考 想着各种各样的应对措施
The hunter takes a deep breath and makes a decision.
最后他深吸一口气 做了决定
Maybe the only way out of the dark forest
也许走出黑暗森林的唯一办法
is to step into the clearing together.
就是一起走上那片空地
And with this hopeful picture,
伴随着这幅充满希望的画面
we say goodbye to the year 12021 of the Human Era.
让我们向人类纪元的第12021 年告别吧
It was a wild year to say the least,
今年很疯狂 但至少
still much more fun than 12020.
比第12020年好多了
Kurzgesagt had its most successful month ever
这是科学坚果最成功的一个月
and published a book.
我们发行了一本书
We tried a lot of new techniques
试了很多做视频的新软件
and really got into Blender and Cinema4D,
并已在用Blender和Cinema4D了
hiding more and more 3D in our videos.
会在视频中越来越多地避免3D软件图像
We have so many ideas for next year
我们明年有很多新的想法
and big and ambitious plans
雄心勃勃地制定了大计划
that we can’t wait to share with you –
很想马上就与你们分享
and all of this was and is possible
而所有的这些已经发生和正在发生的事
because of your direct support
都源自于你们的支持
– thank you so much.
非常感谢大家
Kurzgesagt only works because of you.
科学坚果是因为你们才会存在
So in tune with the end of the year
所以作为年终总结
we designed a few products that will help you to visualize your place in the universe.
我们设计了很多款能帮你体验宇宙的产品
Our very shiny “The Night Sky” Poster
这幅闪闪发光的“夜空”海报
shows you the little piece of space
能为你展现在地球上用肉眼
we can see from Earth with our own eyes,
所能观察到的关于太空的一切
or travel further out
你也可以通过我们的
with our Stellar Zoom Collection
“Stellar Zoom Collection“探索更多
that depicts our home in space
通过它你能看到我们生活的太空
from an increasing distance.
而且它覆盖的区域一直在增大
Or dream with our Space themed notebooks,
或者也可以用我们太空主题的笔记本
scenic posters and pins.
科学海报和别针来装点你的太空梦
We design and produce every single product with great care.
每一件产品我们都精心设计 保障了品质
Getting something from our shop is the best way
来我们商店购物就是对科学坚果
to support kurzgesagt.
最好的支持
We hope you have a wonderful end of the year
我们祝你在年尾度过一段美好的时光
and that 12022 is more fun
第12022年肯定不会再像这两年
and less exciting than the last two years.
这么刺激 一定会更有趣
Thank you for watching.
感谢收看