我的工作是探究未来
I visit the future for a living.
并非单单一种未来
Not just one future,
而是很多种可能的未来
but many possible futures,
为大家从未来带回某些证据以感受当下
bringing back evidences from those futuresfor you to experience today.
就像一个未来的考古学家
Like an archaeologist of the future.
过去许多年 每一段旅行我都很有收获
Over the years, my many journeyshave brought back things
比如 一种合成的新型机械蜜蜂
like a new speciesof synthetically engineered bees;
一本名为“蛋白质宠物”的书籍
a book named, “Pets as Protein;”
一种通过交易基因数据使人富裕的机器
a machine that makes you richby trading your genetic data;
用糖作动力的灯
a lamp powered by sugar;
用于生产食物的电脑
a computer for growing food.
好吧 然而我并没有真正去过一个不同的未来
OK, so I don’t actually travelto different futures — yet.
但我丈夫约翰和我花了大量时间思考
But my husband Jon and I spenda lot of time thinking
并在我们的工作室创造出多彩未来的视景
and creating visionsof different futures in our studio.
我们一直在寻找些微弱的讯号
We are constantly looking outfor weak signals,
那些可能存在于未来的低语
those murmurs of future potential.
接着 我们追寻这些有可能出现于未来的线索 问道：
Then we trace those threads of potentialout into the future, asking:
生活在未来会是什么感觉呢
What might it feel liketo live in this future?
我们会看见什么 听见什么 甚至呼吸着什么
What might we see, hear and even breathe?
于是我们便着手实验 搭建模型 制作实体
Then we run experiments,build prototypes, make objects,
将未来的景象带入生活
bringing aspects of these futures to life,
让它们变得形象具体
making them concrete and tangible
因此你现在便能真实感受到未来可能性
so you can really feel the impactof those future possibilities
所带来的影响
here and now.
但这项工作不是预测未来
But this work is not about predictions.
而是创造工具——
It’s about creating tools —
创造那些能帮助我们联系现在与未来的工具
tools that can help connectour present and our future selves
因此 我们在创造自己想要的未来方面 成了积极的参与者
so we become active participantsin creating a future we want —
一个适用于所有人的未来
a future that works for all.
那么我们是怎么做的呢
So how do we go about doing this?
就最近一个无人机“鸟类饲养场”项目而言
For a recent project called Drone Aviary,
我们对探索
we were interested in exploring
同无人机一同生活在城市中的意义很感兴趣
what it would mean to livewith drones in our cities.
那种能见到我们所不能见
Drones that have the powerto see things we can’t,
去我们所不能去的地方的无人机
to go places we can’t
拥有越来越多的自主性
and to do so with increasing autonomy.
但要了解这种技术
But to understand the technology,
勤动手是关键
getting our hands dirty was crucial.
所以我们在工作室造了一些不同的无人机
So we built several differentdrones in our studio.
我们给它们起名字 设计功能 然后放飞
We gave them names, functionsand then flew them —
并非一帆风顺
but not without difficulty.
零件变得松动
Things came loose,
GPS信号出了故障
GPS signals glitched
无人机坠落
and drones crashed.
但经过这样的实验过程
But it was through such experimentation
我们可以构建一个十分具体的 由经验得来的
that we could construct a veryconcrete and very experiential slice
可能的未来
of one possible future.
现在 一起走进那个未来吧
So now, let’s go to that future.
想象一下 我们正和这样的无人机生活在城市
Let’s imagine we are living in a citywith drones like this one.
我们称它为 守夜人
We call it The Nightwatchman.
它经常于傍晚及晚上在街道上巡逻
It patrols the streets, often spottedin the evenings and at night.
起初 那低沉嗡嗡声会使许多人恼火
Initially, many of us were annoyedby its low, dull hum.
但之后 像其他所有事物一样 我们渐渐习惯了
But then, like everything else,we got used to it.
现在 通过它的眼睛看到的世界会是什么样呢
Now, what if you could seethe world through its eyes?
看它是如何记录我们周围每个人的
See how it constantly logsevery resident of our neighborhood;
记录那些在非球赛区踢球的孩子们
logging the kids who play footballin the no-ballgame area
并把他们标为该受罚的讨厌的人
and marking them as statutory nuisances.
然后看它是如何用自动发出的威胁性禁令
And then see how it dispersesthis other group, who are teenagers,
来驱散这群及其他青年的
with the threat of an autonomouslyissued injunction.
接着是一个叫麦迪逊的巨大圆状漂浮物
And then there’s this giantfloating disc called Madison.
它是如此地引人注目
Its glaring presence is so overpowering,
我不由自主地盯着它
I can’t help but stare at it.
但我每次看它
But if feels like each time I look at it,
就感觉它更了解我一分
it knows a little more about me —
就像它不断把这些Brianair广告打在我身上
like it keeps flashing all theseBrianair adverts at me,
就好像它知道我正计划的暑假一样
as if it knows aboutthe holiday I’m planning.
我不确定 我发现了一种轻松的娱乐方式
I’m not sure if I find thismildly entertaining
还是一种纯粹的入侵
or just entirely invasive.
回到现在
Back to the present.
在创造未来方面 我们学会了很多
In creating this future, we learned a lot.
不仅仅是这些机器是如何运行的
Not just about how these machines work,
还了解到与它们一同生活是什么样的感觉
but what it would feel liketo live alongside them.
像麦迪逊和守夜人这样的无人机
Whilst drones like Madisonand Nightwatchman,
以这些奇特的形式（出现）
in these particular forms,
还不是真的
are not real yet,
目前 未来无人机中大多数元素都是非常真实的
most elements of a drone futureare in fact very real today.
比如
For instance,
随处可见的面孔识别
facial recognition systemsare everywhere —
出现在我们的手机中 甚至是恒温器
in our phones, even in our thermostats
及遍及城市的摄像机中——
and in cameras around our cities —
记录我们所做的每件事
keeping a record of everything we do,
不管是我们瞥了一眼的广告 还是曾参与过的抗议
whether it’s an advertisementwe glanced at or a protest we attended.
这些事情全都记录着
These things are here,
我们常常不明白它是如何运转的
and we often don’t understandhow they work,
它们所带来的后果又是什么
and what their consequences could be.
我们看到这个就发生在我们身边
And we see this all around us.
这种困难甚至存在于
This difficulty in even imagining
想象当下的行动是如何影响我们的未来的
how the consequences of our actionstoday will affect our future.
去年 我所居住的地方 英国 进行了全民公投
Last year, where I live, in the UK,there was a referendum
人们投票表决英国离开欧盟
where the people could votefor the UK to leave the EU
或留在欧盟
or stay in the EU,
最流行的说法是 “脱欧”
popularly known as “Brexit.”
不久结果出来后
And soon after the results came out,
出现了一个新词 “悔脱者”
a word began to surfacecalled “Bregret” —
描述那些以脱欧来抗议
describing people who chose to votefor Brexit as a protest,
但却没考虑潜在后果的人
but without thinking throughits potential consequences.
这种脱节在越简单的事中越明显
And this disconnect is evidentin some of the simplest things.
比如你出去小饮一杯
Say you go out for a quick drink.
然后 你觉得再多喝一点点也是可以的
Then you decideyou wouldn’t mind a few more.
你知道 早晨起床时会很糟糕
You know you’ll wake upin the morning feeling awful,
但你找了个理由说
but you justify it by saying,
“未来的我会解决的”
“The other me in the futurewill deal with that.”
但我们早晨醒来时发现
But as we find out in the morning,
那个未来的“你”就是你自己
that future “you” is you.
当我于70年代末80年代初在印度长大时
When I was growing up in Indiain the late ’70s and early ’80s,
有一种看法是
there was a feeling
未来需要也确实可以被规划
that the future both needed toand could actually be planned.
我记得 我父母就连最简单的事情也要做计划
I remember my parents had to planfor some of the simplest things.
当他们想在家里装电话机时
When they wanted a telephone in our house,
他们需要预定与等待
they needed to order it and then wait —
将近五年后才在家里装上电话机
wait for nearly five years beforeit got installed in our house.
而且如果他们想给住在另一座城市的外祖父母打电话
And then if they wanted to callmy grandparents who lived in another city,
他们需要预约一个叫做”长途电话”的东西
they needed to booksomething called a “trunk call,”
之后又接着等几个小时 甚至几天
and then wait again,for hours or even days.
然后突然地 电话会在凌晨两点响起
And then abruptly, the phonewould ring at two in the morning,
我们所有人都会跳出被窝 围在电话机旁
and all of us would jump out of our bedsand gather round the phone,
尖叫着 在凌晨两点
shrieking into it,discussing general well-being
讨论着普普通通的幸福
at two in the morning.
今天 可以察觉到事情发生得特别迅速
Today it can feel like thingsare happening too fast —
如此之快 以至于我们很难
so fast, that it canbecome really difficult
就我们所处的历史时期形成一种认识
for us to form an understandingof our place in history.
这带来了巨大的不确定性与焦虑感
It creates an overwhelming senseof uncertainty and anxiety,
因此 我们让未来自然而然的出现
and so, we let the futurejust happen to us.
我们不与未来的”我们”联系
We don’t connect with that future “us.”
我们把未来的自己当成一个陌生人
We treat our future selves as a stranger,
把未来当做异国他乡
and the future as a foreign land.
未来并非异国他乡
It’s not a foreign land;
它扑面而来
it’s unfolding right in front of us,
不断地被我们今天的行动所塑造
continually being shapedby our actions today.
我们就是那个未来
We are that future,
因此我认为 为我们想要的未来进行斗争
and so I believe fightingfor a future we want
比以往任何时候更紧急 更有必要了
is more urgent and necessarythan ever before.
我们在工作中学到
We have learned in our work
影响变革最有力的办法之一
that one of the most powerful meansof effecting change
是在人们能直接地感受到
is when people can directly, tangiblyand emotionally experience
他们今天的行为给未来带来的影响的时候
some of the future consequencesof their actions today.
今年早些时候 阿拉伯联合酋长国政府邀请我们
Earlier this year, the governmentof the United Arab Emirates invited us
帮助他们塑造国家的能源战略
to help them shapetheir country’s energy strategy
一直到2050年
all the way up to 2050.
根据政府计量经济学的数据 我们创造了大城市模型
Based on the government’s econometricdata, we created this large city model,
并在此基础上想象出很多可能的未来
and visualized manypossible futures on it.
当我高兴地带着一组政府官员
As I was excitably taking a groupof government officials
以及能源公司的人
and members of energy companies
在我们的模型上体验一种可持续的未来时
through one sustainablefuture on our model,
其中一位参与者告诉我
one of the participants told me,
“我无法想象在未来人们不再使用汽车
“I cannot imagine that in the futurepeople will stop driving cars
并开始使用公共交通”
and start using public transport.”
接着他说
And then he said,
“我无法告诉我儿子 让他不要开车”
“There’s no way I can tell my own sonto stop driving his car.”
但我们对此已做好了准备
But we were prepared for this reaction.
在我的家乡印度 我和一群科学家在化学实验室工作
Working with scientists in a chemistry labin my home city in India,
在不改变行为的前提下
we had created approximate samples
我们制造了一些近似2030年空气的样本
of what the air would be like in 2030if our behavior stays the same.
因此 我引领这群人来到
And so, I walked the groupover to this object
从空气样品中散发出蒸汽的器皿前
that emits vapor from those air samples.
仅是从2030年带回的一些有害的 被污染的空气
Just one whiff of the noxiouspolluted air from 2030
就给了我们无法估量的数据
brought home the pointthat no amount of data can.
这不是你想留给孩子们的未来
This is not the future you would wantyour children to inherit.
次日 政府做出了一个轰动的宣告
The next day, the governmentmade a big announcement.
他们将在可再生能源领域投入百亿美元
They would be investing billionsof dollars in renewables.
我们不清楚未来体验在这个决定中扮演了什么角色
We don’t know what part our futureexperiences played in this decision,
但我们明白 我们改变了他们的能源政策
but we know that they’ve changedtheir energy policy
优化了这种设想
to mitigate such a scenario.
未来的空气这种东西是很有效的 可触及的
While something like air from the futureis very effective and tangible,
沿着我们目前的发展轨迹得到有关未来的结果
the trajectory from our presentto a future consequence
并非总是直截了当
is not always so linear.
即使当一项技术由空想的思想发展而来
Even when a technologyis developed with utopian ideals,
在它离开实验室迈入生活的那一刻起
the moment it leaves the laboratoryand enters the world,
它便受制于创作者控制之外的力量
it is subject to forces outsideof the creators’ control.
就一个特定的项目来说 我们研究医学基因组学：
For one particular project,we investigated medical genomics:
一种收集并使用人们基因数据的技术
the technology of gatheringand using people’s genetic data
实现制造个性化用药
to create personalized medicine.
我们问：
We were asking:
将基因学与医疗保健联系在一起
What are some of the unintendedconsequences of linking our genetics
会产生一些什么意想不到的后果呢?
to health care?
为了进一步了解这个问题
To explore this question further,
我们安排了一次模拟诉讼
we created a fictional lawsuit,
通过三十一件精心制作的证据使其变得更加真实
and brought it to life through 31 piecesof carefully crafted evidence.
我们建造了一个不合法的基因诊所
So we built an illegal genetic clinic,
一个DIY的二氧化碳培养箱
a DIY carbon dioxide incubator,
甚至在eBay上购买了冻鼠
and even bought frozen mice on eBay.
我们去那个诉讼正在进行的未来看看
So now let’s go to that futurewhere this lawsuit is unfolding,
这是被告 阿诺德•曼
and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann.
阿诺德遭“动态遗传”这一全球巨擘
Arnold is being prosecutedby this global giant biotech company
生物科技公司起诉
called Dynamic Genetics,
由于他们有证据表明
because they have evidence
阿诺德非法将其公司专利基因材料
that Arnold has illegally insertedthe company’s patented genetic material
植入自己的身体
into his body.
他究竟是怎样做到的
How on earth did Arnold manage to do that?
噢 一切始于
Well, it all started
阿诺德要把这个唾液试剂盒中的唾液样本
when Arnold was asked to submita saliva sample in this spit kit
提交给NHI——
to the NHI —
即英国国民健康保险服务时
the UK’s National HealthInsurance service.
当阿诺德收到今年的医疗保险开销时
When Arnold receivedhis health insurance bill,
他对其保险费达到
he was shocked and scared
远超出他与家人所能承担范围的峰值
to see that his premiumshad gone through the roof,
感到震惊与恐慌
beyond anything he or his familycould ever afford.
政府通过算法扫描了他的基因数据
The state’s algorithm had scannedhis genetic data
并发现他DNA中潜藏着慢性疾病的风险
and found the risk of a chronic healthcondition lurking in his DNA.
因此阿诺德不得不从今天开始
And so Arnold had to start payingtoward the potential costs
为未来可能出现的疾病
of that future disease —
支付潜在的费用
potential future disease from today.
在那个害怕而又恐慌的时刻
In that moment of fear and panic,
阿诺德悄悄地穿过城市
Arnold slipped through the city
来到非法诊所进行治疗
into the dark shadowsof this illegal clinic for treatment —
一种会改变他DNA的治疗
a treatment that would modify his DNA
这样该州算法将不再视他为危险分子
so that the state’s algorithmwould no longer see him as a risk,
且他又将有能力支付其保险费了
and his insurance premiumswould become affordable again.
但阿诺德被抓住了
But Arnold was caught.
“动态遗传”公司与曼的案子就开始了
And the legal proceedings in the caseDynamic Genetics v. Mann began.
把这样的未来带到生活中
In bringing such a future to life,
对我们来说重要的是 人们可以触摸到
what was important to uswas that people could actually touch,
看到并感受到其可能性
see and feel its potential,
因为这样直接近距离的体验能鼓励人们
because such an immediate and closeencounter provokes people
提出正确的问题
to ask the right questions,
比如这样的问题：
questions like:
生活在这个会评判我基因的世界
What are the implicationsof living in a world
有什么意义
where I’m judged on my genetics?
或者 谁可以声称对我的遗传数据拥有所有权
Or: Who might claim ownershipto my genetic data,
又或者 他们用遗传数据干什么
and what might they do with it?
如果这感觉稍微有些奇怪或是牵强
If this feels even slightlyout-there or farfetched,
如今有一个鲜为人知的称为HR1313
today there’s a little-known billbeing passed through the American congress
保护员工健康计划法案在美国议会通过
known as HR 1313, PreservingEmployee Wellness Programs Act.
旨在修订基因资讯平等法
This bill proposes to amend the GeneticInformation Nondiscrimination Act,
也就是我们知道的GINA
popularly known as GINA,
首次允许雇主询问雇员
and would allow employers to askabout family medical history
家族医药史
and genetic data
及遗传数据
to all employees for the first time.
拒绝提供消息者 将面临大额处罚
Those who refusewould face large penalties.
在我演示的这些领域中
In the work I’ve shown so far,
不管是无人机还是基因犯罪
whether it was drones or genetic crimes,
这些故事描述的是令人不安的未来
these stories describe troubling futures
目的是为了帮助我们避免这些未来的到来
with the intention of helping usavoid those futures.
但是 那些我们无法避免的呢？
But what about what we can’t avoid?
如今 尤其是随着气候变化
Today, especially with climate change,
看似我们前方困难重重
it looks like we are heading for trouble.
所以现在我们要做的就是为未来做好准备
And so what we want to do nowis to prepare for that future
通过技术进步及态度转变让希望出现——
by developing tools and attitudesthat can help us find hope —
希望可以激励行动
hope that can inspire action.
目前 我们正在工作室开展一项实验
Currently, we are runningan experiment in our studio.
这项工作正在进行中
It’s a work in progress.
根据气候数据推测
Based on climate data projections,
我们正探索着这样的未来
we are exploring a future
在那里 西方世界从富饶变得贫瘠
where the Western world has movedfrom abundance to scarcity.
我们想象一下 未来居住在这样的城市 频繁地洪涝
We imagine living in a future citywith repeated flooding,
超市里经常会没有任何食物
periods with almostno food in supermarkets,
经济动荡
economic instabilities,
受到破坏的供应链
broken supply chains.
我们能做些什么 使自己不光活下来 还能繁荣起来呢
What can we do to not just survive,but prosper in such a world?
我们可以吃什么呢？
What food can we eat?
为了切实了解这一些问题
To really step inside these questions,
我们在伦敦公寓里建造这个房间
we are building this room in a flatin London from 2050.
它就像我们从未来带回的一个小的时间胶囊
It’s like a little time capsulethat we reclaimed from the future.
我们把它剥开到最小
We stripped it down to the bare minimum.
我们把所有喜爱的东西都放在家里
Everything we lovingly put in our homes,
像平板电视
like flat-panel TVs,
智能冰箱
internet-connected fridges
和手工家具
and artisanal furnishings
所有东西都放进去
all had to go.
在那里 我们用废弃的抢救回来的物品
And in its place,we’re building food computers
和可重新利用的材料来建造食品电脑
from abandoned, salvagedand repurposed materials,
把今日的废弃物变为明日的晚宴
turning today’s wasteinto tomorrow’s dinner.
比如
For instance,
我们刚完成了第一台雾化机的建造
we’ve just finished building our firstfully automated fogponics machine.
它使用水培园艺方面的技术 雾就当作营养素了
It uses the technique of fogponics –so just fog as a nutrient,
甚至不是水 或是土壤
not even water or soil —
就能使植物生长得如此迅速
to grow things quickly.
在这一刻
At the moment,
我们成功地种出了马铃薯
we have successfully grown tomatoes.
但我们需要比这小房间里能生长的更多的食物
But we’ll need more food than whatwe can grow in this small room.
那么我们还可以在城市里找到什么呢
So what else could we foragefrom the city?
昆虫？鸽子？ 狐狸？
Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?
先前 我们带回了未来的空气
Earlier, we brought backair from the future.
这次我们从未来把整个房间都带回来了
This time we are bringingan entire room from the future,
一个充满希望 工具及策略的房间
a room full of hope, tools and tactics
在恶劣的环境下作出积极的举动
to create positive actionin hostile conditions.
在这样的房间里消磨时光
Spending time in this room,
那个可能成为我们未来住所的房间
a room that could be our own future home,
让气候变化带来的影响及食品安全
makes the consequencesof climate change and food insecurity
变得更加直观立体
much more immediate and tangible.
通过这样的实验 实践
What we’re learning through suchexperiments and our practice
以及与人们一起工作
and the people we engage with
让我们学到 创造具体的体验
is that creating concrete experiences
能够弥补当下与未来的脱节
can bridge the disconnectbetween today and tomorrow.
通过把我们自己放入不同的未来之中
By putting ourselvesinto different possible futures,
通过思想的转变 并乐意接受
by becoming open and willing
这种行为所带来的不确定性及不安
to embrace the uncertainty and discomfortthat such an act can bring,
我们有机会勾勒出新的可能
we have the opportunityto imagine new possibilities.
我们会有一个充满希望的未来
We can find optimistic futures;
我们会找到前进的道路
we can find paths forward;
我们会超越希望 行动起来
we can move beyond hope into action.
也就是说 我们有机会改变方向
It means we have the chanceto change direction,
有机会去发声
a chance to have our voices heard,
有机会书写我们想要的未来
a chance to write ourselvesinto a future we want.
（创造）不一样的未来是可能的
Other worlds are possible.
谢谢
Thank you.