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问题这么明显,为何我们还是视而不见? – 译学馆
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问题这么明显,为何我们还是视而不见?

Why we ignore obvious problems — and how to act on them | Michele Wucker

如果有一个非常明显的问题
So what if there were a highly obvious problem
正摆在你面前怎么办?
right in front of you?
这是个大家都在热切关注的问题
One that everyone was talking about,
而且会直接影响你
one that affected you directly.
你是否会在事情变得更糟糕之前
Would you do everything within your power to fix things
竭尽全力解决问题?
before they got worse?
不要回答得这么肯定
Don’t be so sure.
我们不得不承认
We are all much more likely
我们常常忽视近在眼前的问题
than any of us would like to admit
真实情况比我们认为的严重得多
to miss what’s right in front of our eyes.
实际上
And in fact,
有时候我们很可能对这些问题视而不见
we’re sometimes most likely to turn away from things
恰恰是因为这些问题
precisely because of the threat
在工作上 生活上和世界上对我们构成了威胁
that they represent to us, in business, life and the world.
我想举个关于经济政策的例子 这是我的工作领域
So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy.
当艾伦•格林斯潘担任美联储的总负责人时
So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve,
他的工作就是关注美国经济中的问题
his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy
并确保问题不会失去控制
and to make sure that they didn’t spin out of control.
所以 房价在2006年达到高峰时
So after 2006, when real estate prices peaked,
越来越多备受尊崇的领导者和机构
more and more and more respected leaders and institutions
开始为我们敲响警钟
started to sound the alarm bells
如借贷风险和严重的市场泡沫
about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles.
正如你所知道的 2008年出现了全面的经济崩塌
As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down.
银行破产 全球股市市值损失近半
Banks collapsed, global stock markets lost nearly half their value,
几百万人因无法偿还抵押而无家可归
millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.
底层人民中 近乎十分之一的美国人失业了
And at the bottom, nearly one in ten Americans was out of work.
等到经济危机风波稍减
So after things calmed down a little bit,
格林斯潘等人进行了事后分析后表示
Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said,
“这次经济危机是没人预料得到的”
“Nobody could have predicted that crisis.”
大家管这些叫“黑天鹅”
They called it”a black swan.”
这是无法想象
Something that was unimaginable,
无法预测的 并且完全不可能发生的事
unforeseeable and completely improbable.
完全出乎意料
A total surprise.
但情况完全是意料之中的
Except it wasn’t always such a surprise.
比如 我在曼哈顿的公寓在不到4年里
For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value
升值了一倍
in less than four years.
我看到明显的危险迹象就把它卖了
I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
[鼓掌]
(Applause)
其他很多人同样察觉到了危险预兆
So a lot of other peoplealso saw the warning,
并公开发声了 但是都被无视了
spoke out publicly and they were ignored.
我们不知道这次经济危机
So we didn’t know exactly what
究竟会发展成什么样子
the crisis was going to look like,
没有明显的特征
not the exact parameters,
但是我们都能察觉到
but we could all tell
有些危险的事情就要发生了
that the thing coming at us was
迹象清晰 完全可以预料到
as dangerous, visible and predictable
就像一头巨大的灰犀牛冲我们迎面而来
as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.
黑天鹅的隐喻让我们认为
The black swan lends itself
我们无法掌控自己的未来
to the idea that we don’t have power over our futures.
而且不幸的是 我们越是认为事情无法控制
And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have,
我们越是容易轻视
the more likely we are to downplay it
甚至完全忽视它
or ignore it entirely.
变幻不停的风险掩盖了另外的一个问题
And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem:
我们面对的大多数问题
that most of the problems that we’re facing
是显而易见并可以预见的
are so probable and obvious,
这些事情我们能察觉到 却仍旧不去处理
they’re things that we can see, but we still don’t do anything about.
所以我创造灰犀牛这一隐喻
So I created the gray rhino metaphor
是为了满足这一迫切需求
to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
以便让我们有个全新的视角
To help us to take a fresh look,
就像使用黑天鹅叫法的人一样
with the same passion that people had for the black swan,
只是这次 它指的是那些显而易见的
but this time, for the things that were highly obvious,
很可能发生 但是仍被人们忽视的风险
highly probable, but still neglected.
这些叫做灰犀牛
Those are the gray rhinos.
一旦你开始有意识的寻找灰犀牛
Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
你每天就会看到它们出现在头条新闻中
you see them in the headlines every day.
我现在看到头条新闻中出现一只好大的灰犀牛
And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino,
一场新的金融危机极有可能发生
a new highly probable financial crisis.
我很好奇过去10年里我们是否学到了些什么
And I wonder if we’ve learned anything in the last 10 years.
如果你只听美国政府和华尔街人的说法
So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street,
从而认为我们前方一切顺利
you could almost be forgiven for thinking that
这也是无可厚非的
only smooth sailing laid ahead.
但我经常前往中国
But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
他们的舆论氛围完全不同
the conversation is totally different.
整个经济决策团队
The entire economic team,
甚至是习近平主席本人
all the way up to President Xi Jinping himself,
他们非常具体地清晰地
talk very specifically and clearly
把金融风险当做灰犀牛讨论
about financial risks as gray rhinos,
并去探讨解决方法
and how they can tame them.
当然 中国和美国的政府体系非常非常不同
Now, to be sure, China and the US have very, very different systems of government,
这会决定解决措施能不能执行
which affects what they’re able to do or not.
引发经济问题的很多根本原因
And many of the root causes for their economic problems
都是完全不同的
are totally different.
但是人尽皆知 这两个国家
But it’s no secret that both countries have problems
都面临债务 不平等和经济生产力的问题
with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity.
那么为何舆论氛围如此不同呢
So how come the conversations are so different?
当然这个问题不仅对国家
You could actually ask this question, not just about countries,
对每个人也适用
but about just about everyone.
采取安全第一理念的汽车公司
The auto companies that put safety first
以及等到出现死亡事故后
and the ones that don’t bother to recall their shoddy cars
才召回他们的劣质车辆的汽车公司
until after people die.
有些祖辈的人会为终将到来的生命终点作准备
The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable —
他们会写好悼词
the ones who have the eulogy written,
准备好葬礼的午餐菜单
the menu for the funeral lunch
[笑声]
(Laughter)
我的祖父母就这样做了
My grandparents did.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
把所有信息都刻在了墓碑上 除了逝世日期
And everything but the final date chiseled into the gravestone.
你也会发现 有些祖辈直到去世时
But then you have the grandparents on the other side,
也还没把他们的送行事宜规划好
who don’t put their final affairs in order,
也没有来得及处理
who don’t get rid
他们积攒了几十年的杂七杂八
of all the junk they’ve been hoarding for decades and decades
最后只能留给他们的孩子来处理
and leave their kids to deal with it.
是什么造就了这两种不同的境况呢
So what makes the difference between one side and the other?
为什么有些人能察觉问题并及时处理
Why do some people see things and deal with them,
而有些人则视而不见呢
and the other ones just look away?
前者和文化 社会
So the first one has to do with culture, society,
以及你周围的人有关
the people around you.
如果你觉得你身边有人
If you think that someone around you
会在你跌倒的时候帮你站起来
is going to help pick you up when you fall,
那么你很可能就会小觑那些风险
you’re much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.
这样我们就能明智地冒险
And that allows us to take good chances,
而不是承担无意义的风险
not just the bad ones.
比如 当你提到别人不希望你提到的危机时
For example, like risking criticism when you talk about the danger
你就冒着被批评的风险
that nobody wants you to talk about.
或者抓住那些有点可怕的机会
Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary,
他们的这种情况就叫灰犀牛
so in their own way are gray rhinos.
美国的文化是非常个人主义的 提倡单枪匹马
So the US has a very individualist culture — go it alone.
但是这反而让很多美国人更不愿意去改变
And paradoxically, this makes many Americansmuch less open to change
不愿意抓住带些风险的好机会
and taking good risks.
在中国 则明显不同
In China, by contrast,
人们相信政府
people believe that the government is
会避免问题发生
going to keep problems from happening,
或许不总能成功避免问题发生 但人民相信政府
which might not always be what happens, but people believe it.
他们相信他们有自己的家庭作依靠
They believe they can rely on their families,
这让他们更愿意承担一定的风险
so that makes them more likely to take certain risks.
比如在北京买一份不动产
Like buying Beijing real estate,
或者变得更愿意接受必须改变方向的事实
or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction,
实际上 在中国 变革的节奏是非常惊人的
and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.
另外一点 你有多了解目前的局势
Second of all, how much do you know about a situation,
你有多愿意去学习
how much are you willing to learn?
在事实非如你所愿时你是否愿意正视问题
And are you willing to see things even when it’s not what you want?
我们很多很多人都不愿意
So many of us are so unlikely
去关注那些
to pay attention to the things
我们希望回避的问题
that we just want to black out,
我们不喜欢这种情形
we don’t like them.
我们总是关注我们乐于看见的东西
We pay attention to what we want to see,
我们喜欢的东西 我们认同的东西
what we like, what we agree with.
但是我们有机会也有能力
But we have the opportunityand the ability
针对这些盲点予以纠正
to correct those blind spots.
我花了很多时间
I spend a lot of time talking
和各行各业的人探讨
with people of all walks of life
他们生活中的灰犀牛和他们的态度
about the gray rhinos in their lifeand their attitudes.
你或许会想
And you might think
越是害怕承担风险的人
that the people who are more afraid of risk,
越是对风险更敏感的人
who are more sensitive to them,
可能越不愿意做出改变
would be the ones who would be less open to change.
但是真相恰恰相反
But the opposite is actually true.
我发现
I’ve found that the people who
那些愿意正视身边的问题
are wiling to recognize the problems around them
并制定应对计划的人
and make plans
会更有能力承担更多风险
are the ones who are able to tolerate more risk,
为机遇做出挑战
good risk,
以及应对风险危机
and deal with the bad risk.
这是因为在我们搜求信息的时候
And it’s because as we seek information,
我们就更有能力处理自己害怕的事情
we increase our power to do something about the things that we’re afraid of.
从这里引出我的第三个观点
And that brings me to my third point.
你感觉自己能有多大的把握
How much control do you feel that you have
能克服你生活中的灰犀牛
over the gray rhinos in your life?
一个我们疏于行动的原因就是
One of the reasons we don’t act
我们常常感觉自己无能为力
is that we often feel too helpless.
对于气候变化 这个问题让人觉得如此之大
Think of climate change, it can feel so big,
以至于我们每个人都无能为力
that not a single one of us could make a difference.
于是有些人就否定它 继续过着自己的生活
So some people go about life denying it.
还有些人会怪罪别人
Other people blame everyone except themselves.
比如我的一个朋友说
Like my friend who says he’s
他永远不会放弃他的那辆SUV
not ever going to give up his SUV
除非中国不再建造煤矿工厂
until they stop building coal plants in China.
但是我们有机会去改变
But we have an opportunity to change.
我们每个人都是不一样的
No two of us are the same.
我们每个人都有机会改变我们的态度
Every single one of us has the opportunity to change our attitudes,
我们自身和我们身边的人们
our own and those of people around us.
今天 我想邀请在座的大家
So today, I want to invite all of you
跟我一起与周围的人
to join me in helping to spark an open and honest conversation
进行开放又坦诚的对话
with the people around you,
一起探讨你们生活里的灰犀牛
about the gray rhinos in our world,
诚实地说出我们现在处理这些事的进展
and be brutally honest about how well we’re dealing with them.
在美国 我曾多次听到
I hear so many times in the States, “Well,
“我们当然应该处理明显的问题
of course we should deal with obvious problems,
但是如果问题在眼前你却看不到
but if you don’t see what’s in front of you,
你不是愚蠢就是无知”
you’re either dumb or ignorant.”
这是他们的论调 我实在无法认同
That’s what they say, and I could not disagree more.
如果问题在你眼前你却没察觉到
If you don’t see what’s in front of you,
你既不愚蠢 也不无知
you’re not dumb, you’re not ignorant,
你只是正常人而已
you’re human.
一旦我们都意识到这是我们人类的通病
And once we all recognize that shared vulnerability,
这将会赐予我们睁开双眼的力量
that gives us the power to open our eyes,
让我们看清眼前的问题 在我们被践踏之前采取措施
to see what’s in front of us and to act before we get trampled.
[鼓掌]
(Applause)

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视频概述

本视频介绍了人们会忽视身边的一些重要的事情,忽视身边的问题甚至危机,作者认为我们要意识到这是共同的人性弱点,她把这叫做灰犀牛。我们要从正视这一点开始,察觉问题,克服惰性,采取措施预防问题,避免问题。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Hlq

审核员

审核员B

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBBA2LAsepU

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