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为什么罚球命中率不可能达到95% – 译学馆
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为什么罚球命中率不可能达到95%

Why Shooting 95% From the Free-Throw Line Is Almost Impossible (ft. Steve Nash) | WIRED

Basketball is usually a very dynamic sport.
篮球通常是一项充满活力的运动
But there comes a point in every game
但每场比赛中总会有些时刻
when everything comes to a standstill:
好像球场上的一切都静止了
Right here, at the foul line, for a free throw.
此时 球员在罚球线上 准备罚球
It’s not a terribly difficult shot,
严格地说 罚球并不难
there’s nobody guarding you,
这时没人会防你
you’ve got 10 seconds to aim and shoot.
你还有10秒的时间来准备投球
The very best have career averages of around 90%,
最好的投手职业生涯平均命中率在90%左右
that’s over the course of thousands of efficient games.
那是在成千上万场正式比赛中统计出来的
But could that number go up?
但是命中率还能再提高吗?
Today, we’re gonna look at why averaging 95 percent
今天 我们就研究一下为什么
from the foul line is almost impossible.
达到95%的罚球命中率几乎是不可能的
To find out what it takes,
为了找到原因
I shot with one of the most consistent free-throw shooters of all time.
我会和历史上最稳定的投手之一一起罚球
– Nice, there it is. – Here we go.
– 好球 – 开始吧
Talk shot science with a dynamicist.
并与动力学家探讨投篮中的科学
When you run these kinds of simulations you notice that
当你对投篮过程进行模拟分析 你就会发现
that there’s an optimum angle which is actually the least effort angle.
最佳的投射角度其实就是最省力的角度
And spoke with a cognitive scientist
还与认知科学家讨论了
about why even the best choke under pressure.
即使最好的投手在压力下 也会发挥失常的原因
You can perform more poorly than expected,
你的表现可能比你预想的还要糟
precisely because people are watching you
准确来讲是因为 罚球时所有人都在看着你
or there’s something on the line.
也可能是罚球线上有什么影响了你
The free-throw has been the same for decades.
罚球的规则数十年都没有变动
It’s 15 feet from the line to the basket
罚球线距离篮筐15英尺(4.572米)
which is a standard 10 feet off the ground.
篮筐距离地面10英尺(3.048米)
The average free-throw percentage for the NBA
NBA WNBA和NCAA的平均罚球命中率
WNBA and NCAA hovers around 70%,
都在70%左右浮动
but there are those players who can sync it time after time,
但是也有一些球员远高于平均水平
barely ever missing.
他们几乎从不投丢
The very best have career averages of around 90%.
最好的投手生涯平均命中率可以达到90%左右
This player, is one of them.
而这位球员就是其中之一
So we’re here with Steve Nash.
他就是史蒂夫·纳什
Steve is obviously a very talented basketball player,
史蒂夫无疑是一个天赋异禀的球员
I am not, right?
而我就不是了
You’ve shot a ball a few times?
你已经投过几次篮了吧?
I did it for a long time.
我已经投了好一会儿了
Over the course of his career,
在纳什的职业生涯中
Nash toed the foul line 3384 times,
他上过3384次罚球线
and sink the ball 3060 of those times.
罚进3060次
His career record is the highest of any retired pro
他的职业生涯罚球命中率达到了90.43%
at ninety point four three percents.
是所有退役球员里最高的
He’s gonna help us work on our free-throw technique,
接下来他会帮助我们改善罚球技巧
and see if we can’t get a little better.
看看之后我们会不会投的更准
And also talk with us about what we think the, uh,
然后我们也会一起探讨
upper limit to free-throw accuracy might be.
罚球命中率的上限可以达到多少
And I’m gonna kick his ass.
我会完虐他的
Also that.
好吧
Kicking my ass was not going to be difficult.
虐我其实一点儿都不难
I’d barely touched the basketball in 20 years,
我大概有20年没碰过篮球了
and I was rusty at the line.
罚球的手感已经生疏了
Nash gave me some pointers on
纳什给了我一些建议
how to shoot with my whole body.
包括如何用整个身体来投篮
Okay, let’s try a few where you slow down a little bit,
好 我们来试一下 动作稍慢一点
you start at the bottom,
从下面开始慢慢上升
you come up and shoot it all in one motion.
然后以一个连贯的动作投出去
So your body comes up with the ball
这样你的身体会随球一起向上
and the ball releases before or at
在你动作做完之前
the end of that motion.
或在动作做完的时候出手
Nash told me his technique for better shooting.
纳什把他改善投篮的技巧教给了我
You know, I try to take all the extra movements out of it right.
我会去掉所有多余的动作
Just shu, one smooth, one motion.
只有一个流畅的动作和进球的声音
Yeah? There’s no strain, there’s no forcing,
不用绷紧身体 不用刻意用力
there’s no flicking at the rim.
也不会打到篮筐上
It’s a really smooth stroke.
这就是一个非常流畅的动作
That makes sense? Yeah?
就是这种感觉
So this gonna sound like a dumb question,
我有个问题 听起来可能有点蠢
but why, why can’t people get free throws all the time?
为什么没有人能百发百中呢?
For exactly the reasons that uh,
准确的说
you know the best free-throw shooters make them.
好投手罚球这么准的原因有很多
You know, they probably don’t have the great, have the best technique.
也许他们并没有很好的投球技术
They probably don’t take the most pride in it,
他们也许并没有特别自信
or practice it as diligently as they should.
或者他们也没有尽全力地努力练习
Um, and I think and then lastly some people emotionally,
还有最后一个原因 我觉得 有些球员被情绪影响了
especially if you haven’t done the work,
尤其是平时没有好好训练的
it’s gonna affect your technique more, right?
这对罚球技术的影响很大
One of the reasons Nash was so successful,
纳什之所以能达到如此成就的原因之一
was that he did the work.
就是他的刻苦训练
And he took pride in the shot and he practiced a lot.
他对他的罚球很自信 同时也不乏大量的练习
When I was younger, I would shoot a lot of them.
在我年轻的时候 我就会进行大量的罚球训练
When I got older, I was just refining.
不过年纪大了以后 我就只是改善技术了
Sometimes it would be like ten before practice, ten after practice,
有时候就是训练前后各投10个
ten before the game, you know or maybe just a couple and
比赛前投十个 可能更少
just to refine it, get in that moment.
仅仅为了改善技术 让我快速进入状态
Reproducibility is key.
反复训练才是关键
To demonstrate why,
为了验证原因
Nash and I each shot a series of free-throws.
我和纳什分别罚了几个球
You can see here, Nash had no problem sinking ball,
你能看到 纳什罚球完全没有压力
after ball, after ball.
一球接一球地进
I, on the other hand, was throwing up bricks, lots of them.
而我就差远了 一直在打铁
Nash has given me great pointers
纳什已经给了我一些很棒的指导
on how to perfect my technique,
教我怎么改善我的罚球技术
but I wanted to know if the free throw could
但我想知道能否从科学的角度
be scienced into submission.
来分析罚球过程
Thanks for joining us.
欢迎您加入我们
So I called up Larry Silverburg.
于是我联系了Larry Silverburg
I’m a professor here at NC State.
我是北卡罗莱纳州立大学的一名教授
I’m a dynamicists that means I study motion.
我是动力学家 我研究运动
And I spend a lot of my time,
而且我花了很多时间
probably more time than I really should,
或许比我该花的时间还多
studying the motion of basketball.
来研究篮球的运动
Silverberg has written a number of papers
Silverberg已经发表了许多关于
on the physics of the free throw.
罚球物理学的论文
To him, it’s an elegant problem.
对他来说 这是个美妙的问题
It’s a beautiful experiment but you’re not moving,
这是个很有趣的实验 但是你不能移动
you can just walk up to the line.
你只能站在罚球线那儿
It’s the same for every single player,
这对每个球员都一样
so you can actually look at the shot very scientific.
所以可以用十分科学的角度来分析罚球
What he’s found is that players like Nash
他发现像纳什这样的球员
incorporate four key parameters into their free throw.
他们的罚球包含了四个关键的因素
First and foremost, is the initial velocity of the ball.
首先 是球的初始速度
The second thing is you have to line up the ball ,
第二 就是将球以直线投出
that ball’s got to go directly toward the center of the hoop.
这样球就可以径直飞向篮筐中心
That second factor is called side angle.
第二个因素被称为偏离角度
You want to keep it as small as possible
你需要让它尽可能地小
to make the ball go straight.
确保球能够沿直线飞行
The third parameter is a bit of backspin.
第三个因素是让球带一点回旋
The backspin is very important.
回旋非常重要
It makes the ball land on the basket a little bit softer and
它让球能够更柔和地触碰篮筐
at more of a chance of the ball, of the ball going in.
这样进球几率就会更大
And then there’s the ball’s arc,
接着是球的弧度
which depends on your release angle.
弧度取决于你出手时的角度
But when you run these kinds of simulations,
但是当你进行各种角度的模拟后
you notice that there’s an optimum angle,
你会发现有一个最佳角度
which is actually the least effort angle.
它实际上就是最省力的角度
That tends to be a release angle of about, uh, depending on your height
出手角度会跟你的身高有关
of anywhere between 45, 46 and 53 degrees.
一般在45°或46°到53°之间
So, not many players could tell you what their release angle is
所以 很少有球员知道自己的出手角度
but that maybe changing.
但是现在就不一样了
Well, Nash and I shot.
纳什和我一起投球的时候
We use an app he’s helped develop, called Homecourt,
我们使用了一款他参与开发的APP “Homecourt”
which uses an artificial intelligence
这款APP应用人工智能技术
to track and analyze basketball shots.
来追踪并分析投球过程
The app just released a new feature that measures
这款APP最近刚发布了一个新功能
not only your makes and misses of the line,
它不仅能测出你投进和没投进的球数
but other metrics like release angle.
还能测出其他的指标比如说出手角度
Our app is called Homecourt AI.
这款APP叫“Homecourt AI”
It’s a piece of technology artificial intelligence
它用了一种人工智能技术
that can track not only your body movement
不仅能记录你身体的动作
but also the flight of your ball, makes, misses, arc,
还能追踪球的轨迹 投中 未投中 弧度
release time, angle all those things.
投球时间 角度等等所有的东西
So, you were nine of thirty, just thirty percent.
所以 你投30中9 命中率就是30%
Your best streak was two in a row.
你最好的记录是连续进了两个
It’s really hard to be a great free-throw shooter,
成为一个优秀的投手并不容易
we got to get you three four five,
我们得给你加把劲
get some momentum, some confidence.
给你一点动力 一点信心
How did Nash do?
纳什投的怎么样呢?
Accuracy a hundred percent, thirty four to thirty four,
命中率100% 34投34中
uh, best streak was 34.
呃 最高纪录是连续投进34个
Your release angle range is only four degrees,
你的出手角度范围只有4度
so that means that the biggest difference
那就意味着 你能见的所有出手角度
you ever saw in your release angle was just four degrees.
最大相差仅仅为4度
And mine was twenty.
而我的是20度
Yeah, so, I mean that tells a lot, right?
是的 所以我说它能告诉我们很多 对吧?
I mean, obviously, so, this is, I mean, this is such a great tool.
显然 这是一个非常棒的工具
Makes and misses are only one part of the equation like but
投中投不中只是方程的一部分 但是
if I can see like the variance in your release angle, is like wild.
如果我能够看到你投球角度的变化 这就有点疯狂了
Here we have a problem, if I can see that it’s tightening up
这里有一个问题 如果我能看到偏离范围在变小
but you’re not necessarily getting better.
但是未必能投的更准
I still feel positive like there’s a breakthrough coming.
我仍然会保持乐观 因为很快就会有突破
Now before Nash had arrived,
其实在纳什到来前
I had actually shot just over 50%.
我的命中率要高于50%
But shooting with one of the world’s greatest point guards,
不过和世界上最厉害的组织后卫之一一起投篮
is a little intimidating.
会让人有点紧张
As soon as he showed up, my percentage dropped by 20%.
他一出现 我的命中率就降了20%
I talk about it as paralysis by analysis,
据我分析 我觉得这是某种精神麻痹
you start paying too much to the details of what you’re doing,
你开始过于注意这件事的细节
in a way that’s counterproductive.
到一定程度甚至会适得其反
That’s Seon Bylocke.
这是Seon Bylocke
I’m a cognitive scientist and
我是一个认知科学家
and I’m president of Barnard College at Columbia University,
同时也是哥伦比亚大学巴纳德学院的院长
and I am an expert in why we choke under pressure and
我是一个研究 人们为什么在压力下会发挥失常
and what to do about it.
以及 我们该怎么做 这方面的专家
Pressure can affect the pros too.
压力也会影响职业运动员们
Nash took well over a hundred free throws with us,
纳什和我们一起投了一百多个罚球
he said that was more than he’d taken since he retired in 2015,
他说这比他从2015年退役到现在投的球都多
and of all those shots, he missed two.
这一百多个球里 他只有两个没投进
It’s been a while for me to but…
我觉得已经过了好久 不过……
That’s greater than 98 percent accuracy.
这个命中率比98%还高
And yet, over the course of his career,
当然 这也高于他在职业生涯中
he averaged closer to 90 percent.
高达90%的平均命中率
And that’s because performing in a game,
这是因为比赛时的表现
is way different from performing in practice.
和平时练习是完全不一样的
What we often forget is that
我们常常会忽略一件事
it’s important to close this gap between training and competition.
就是减少训练和比赛间的差异是很重要的
And what I mean by that is practicing under the kinds of conditions
我的意思就是在你需要用到这项技能的环境下
you’re gonna perform under.
练习这项技能
I think we’ve all had the experience where
我想我们都有这样的经历
we can hit that shot when no one’s watching
当没人关注我们或者周围没有人的时候
or 50% of our free throws when no one’s there.
我们就能投进或是有50%的命中率
Um, but when all eyes are on us, we fumble
但当人们都看着我们时 就不容易投进
and so the idea is to get used to how we’re gonna feel,
所以我的想法就是 习惯比赛中可能会产生的感觉
how our body is gonna react in that moment.
我们的身体在那一刻会有什么反应
If we’re gonna have important people come to the event,
如果会有重要的人来观看比赛
like our parents watching us play basketball,
比如我们的父母来看我们打球
make sure that they’re there during practice at some point too.
一定要确保练习时他们也在那里
So we’re not all of a sudden
所以 在最关键的时候
entering a new situation when it matters most.
就不会发生没有准备的突发状况
The free throw, if you’ve done all your homework
罚球时 如果你做好了所有的准备工作
and you have the right technique,
并且有了正确的罚球技巧
it becomes an ability to believe and
那么这就会形成一种自信
to cut out all the distractions
且无视所有干扰的能力
and put yourself back on the practice court
即使在最关键的时刻
in the heart of a big moment.
也能让你习以为常
To make the most of his shot, Nash was always practicing,
为了保持最好的手感 纳什总是在练习
even during games.
即使是在比赛中
Before the referee gave me the ball,
在裁判给我球之前
I would take two if I could practice shots without the ball.
如果可以的话 我会练习几个没有球的投篮
– That’s like a rehearsal. – Yeah.
– 听起来像是预演 – 是的
Right, so that I just got to practice shots in before I shot the ball, right?
所以我只要在投球前模拟练习就行 对吧?
You know, I think sports psychologists say now
嗯 我认为运动心理学家说
that even better than visualization is actual physical recreation,
比想象中的预演更好的是身体上的预演
you know, even without the ball.
即使没有球
Clearly I needed to practice,
显然我需要练习
so I took HomeCourt with me to my local court
于是我带着HomeCourt
and shot and shot and shot.
在附近的场地一个一个的罚球
Could I improve?
我能有进步吗?
Could an amateur like me ever achieve NBA level accuracy?
像我这种业余的人能达到NBA级别的命中率吗?
Well, this guy has.
也许这个人可以
All it takes to become good it was three things:
我只做了三件事来变得优秀
knowledge, practice and time.
知识 练习和时间
This is Bob Fisher.
这是鲍勃·费舍尔
I’m like a million guy. I played high school basketball,
我跟普通人一样 我高中时就打篮球
I played recreationally to just 44 and quit because,
我打休闲篮球只到44岁就不打了
young guys like you just got to quit.
因为已经跟不上你们这样的年轻人了
Except at about ten years ago,
只不过大约十年前
Fisher really started practicing free throws.
费舍尔真正开始练习罚球
And in September of 09, I went to the gym
在09年9月 我去了体育馆
and started going the gym every day,
之后开始每天去体育馆
after a month I noticed I was getting considerably better.
一个月后我发现 我的进步很大
And then I started making a hundred every day in a row.
接着我开始每天一次性投篮一百个
And then I switched over to speed
接着我转向练习投篮速度
and January , four months later January 10th, I set my first record.
到了1月 即四个月后的1月10日 我创造了我的第一个纪录
Most in a minute.
一分钟罚进最多
Today he has 25 Guinness World Records.
现在他有25项吉尼斯世界纪录
Most in 30 seconds with 33, most in a minute with 52,
30秒最多罚进33个 一分钟最多52个
most in two minutes with 92, most in 10 minutes with 148.
两分钟最多92个 十分钟最多148个
You get the idea.
你懂我意思吧
Fisher, a longtime coach has also written the book
费舍尔当过很长时间的教练 同时还写了一本书
and made an instructional video on how to shoot more accurately.
还录制了一个关于怎样罚球更准的教学视频
If you focus on the high point of the ball
如果注意篮球的最高点
and apply force control the high point of the ball
并控制好球的最高点
and the relationship to the center of the basket.
和篮筐中心的关系
It’s gonna go straight.
球就会飞得很直
Fisher is no NBA legend,
费舍尔不是NBA传奇
but his free-throw percentage,
但他的投篮命中率……
I made 99 out of a hundred.
我投100个能进99个
So, if a guy like Fisher can sink the ball 99% of the time,
所以 既然有人能达到99%的命中率
I should be able to put it in the basket a little more often right?
我应该也能投的更准 对吧
Now might be a good time to mention that
说到这里 不如
there’s another way to shoot from the line and that’s:
我们来探讨一下另一种罚球方法 那就是
underhanded.
低手投球
One of the best practitioners of this technique was Rick Barry.
里克·巴里是这个手法最出色的实践者之一
Over the course of his career,
在他的职业生涯中
he averaged eighty nine point three one percent from the line.
他的平均罚球命中率为89.31%
Rick Berry is obviously one of our all time great players
里克·巴里显然是历史上的伟大球员之一
and was unbelievable from the foul line, underhand.
他在罚球线上的低手投球准的令人难以置信
He swears, um, that it’s wiser to shoot in underhand.
他相信低手投球是更明智的投篮方法
Let’s just say it has its trade-offs.
低手投篮确实有它独特的协调性
What happens in the underhand shot is,
低手投球时的身体动作
the body motion is very, very smooth.
非常 非常流畅
It’s inherently smooth, there’s just a single motion
因为它只有一个从低到高的动作
from the… from down low all the way up high
所以这种罚球方式具有天然的连贯性
that can be committed to memory I think,
而且我觉得这个动作很容易让人记住
pretty easily so it’s easy to perfect.
又非常简单所以很容易做的完美
On the other hand,
另一方面
you do have a disadvantage because you’re releasing the ball low.
出手很低在投球时也是一个缺点
So you have this trade-off between
所以你得在出手点低和
releasing the ball low and having smooth body motion.
连贯的身体动作之间有所权衡
The smooth body motion means that
连贯的身体动作意味着
you can become much more consistent at it.
你的动作可以变得更加一气呵成
I think there’s something about
我认为这个动作是
the ball starting down here and ending up there.
球从这儿开始 到这儿再出手
That feels more awkward than finishing above your head,but
相比之前的投球方式 这种罚球动作显得有点尴尬
I could see how it would limit some of the,
但我能看出 它可以减少一些
kind of extraneous and unnecessary movements
时不时会出现在罚球过程中的
that creep in from time to time.
各种没有关联的不必要的动作
I’m gonna stick with the overhand.
我还是坚持练习前一种投篮
In a week of shooting with Homecourt, tracking and analyzing my shots
在用Homecourt记录和分析投篮的一周里
I managed to increase my free-throw percentage
我成功提高了自己的罚球命中率
from around 30 percent to 75 percent.
大约从30%提高到了75%
And my release angle went from varying by more than 20 degrees
而我的出手角度范围 也从变化超过20度
to varying by less than 8.
到现在变化少于8度
So I got better,
所以我投的更准了
but what about the pros?
那职业运动员呢?
With better practice and preparation,
有了更好的练习和准备
could the pros edge the record even higher?
职业运动员能让投球纪录更高吗?
It turns out Steph Curry recently surpassed Nash’s record,
最近史蒂芬·库里打破了纳什的纪录
but only by a couple hundreds of a percent.
但只超过了百分之零点几
The NBA in particular, it’s an incredible demand.
尤其是在NBA 这是一件几乎不可能的事
You’re traveling, changing time zones, playing,
球员总是在奔波 跨时区
you know, three and a half, three games a week.
一周三场 下午三点半举行的比赛
You know, you may be carrying an injury.
有时球员还会受伤
So, to corral all these factors
所以 综合以上所有因素
it’s why we don’t see someone shooting high 90s or a hundred percent.
你就理解为什么没有人命中率高于90%或接近100%了
Right.
是的
Now, is there gonna be some outlier that comes along?
那么会不会出现一些例外呢?
Why not? I mean, it’s actually remarkable to me that
当然会有 对于我来说
Steph isn’t more of an outlier.
库里还不够成为一个例外
The real outlier is Elena Delle Donne,
真正的例外是Elena Delle Donne
who plays for the WNBA’s Washington Mystics.
她是WNBA的华盛顿神秘队的运动员
Her career free-throw percentage
她的职业生涯命中率
is a monstrous ninety three point four percent.
达到了惊人的93.4%
But remember, neither she nor Curry has retired yet.
不过别忘了 她跟库里都还没退役
So those records aren’t set in stone.
所以他们的纪录还没有尘埃落定
You know, so many games are decided the free-throw line today.
要知道现在许多比赛最后都是由罚球决定胜负的
It’s very possible that
很可能的是
as we become more sophisticated, more technological,
因为我们变得更加复杂 更有技术
that a shift could take place where some coaches
一些教练也可能会
might start to actually pay attention to the free-throw.
开始真正把注意力放到罚球上
But until that happens,
但在那一天到来之前
remember that what players like Nash do with the line,
你要知道像纳什这样的球员能在罚球线上
time after time after time,
一次又一次地罚进
is already almost impossible.
已经是近乎不可能的事了
[Music]
[背景音乐]
We’re good?
说明白了么?

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译制信息
视频概述

职业篮球运动员罚球必中吗?普通人的命中率能比他们还高吗?

听录译者

PyroPigeon⁶

翻译译者

钉子酷咸鱼

审核员

审核员XY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKIOqbx3sbU

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