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为何国家不能通过增印钞票来偿还债务 – 译学馆
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为何国家不能通过增印钞票来偿还债务

Why can't we just print money to pay off debt?

你是否曾好奇为何国家不能
Have you ever wondered why countries can’t just
增印钞票以偿还国家债务
print more money to off their debts
支助无家可归者 解决失业问题及与此有关的任何问题
or to feed the homeless or fix unemployment, or any other issue for that matter.
现在 这也许看起来像是一个非常愚蠢的问题
Now, this may seem like a rather silly question,
但我想这或许也是那些
but I think it may be one of those questions
人们不好意思开口提问的问题之一
people might be a bit too embarrassed to ask,
但还是有不少人对此疑惑不解
but there’s no shortage of people wondering.
其答案 一言以蔽之 就是通货膨胀
The short answer can be summed up in just one word… inflation.
通货膨胀被定义为
Inflation is defined as “…”
货币供应量增多所引起的
货币贬值和物价持续普遍显著上涨
的经济现象
我现在用人话来解释
But I’ll get to that…
首先 得弄清货币究竟是什么
first though, we need to establish exactly what money… is.
这似乎显而易见 但你需要明白的是
this may seem obvious, but something you need to understand is that
货币没有内在价值
money has absolutely no… intrinsic value.
换句话说
What that means is that
货币自身没有实际价值
money in itself has no actual value,
只有货币能够用来购买东西时 它才会被认为是有价值的
it’s only considered valuable because it can buy things,
但如果你被困于荒岛 那么货币就毫无用处
but if you were stranded on a desert island, money would be totally useless.
只有当我们相信货币有价值时它才具有价值
Money only has value because we believe it has value.
这就是所谓的仙子效应
This is called the Tinkerbell Effect,
这是我从Vsauce发布的视频中了解到的
something I learned about from Vsauce.
仙子效应是指
The Tinkerbell Effect is used to describe something
某一事物之所以存在 是因为我们相信它存在
that only exists because we believe it exists.
这对货币同样适用 或许说不定
And this is the case with money. Hypothetically speaking,
当人们突然开始认为货币没有价值时
if people suddenly started to believe that money had no value,
货币也就没有任何价值可言了
it wouldn’t have any value.
当然 事实并非总是如此
Of course, it wasn’t always this way,
货币的出现已经有几千年了
money has been around for millennia,
货币最早被使用时是以商品形式存在的
and when it was first used it was in the form of commodity money.
用来交易的商品媒介都具有实际价值和用途
Things were traded that had actual value and uses,
比如盐 香料 马匹和武器
like salt, spices, horses or weapons,
及诸如金银这类贵重金属
as well as this precious metals such as gold as silver,
严格意义上讲 它们也没有任何内在价值
which technically don’t have any intrinsic value either,
但因其稀有性 金银被普遍接受作为货币使用
but due to their raredity they are almost accepted universally as currency.
后来出现了代用货币
Then we have representative money.
由于随身携带商品不便 代用纸币有了存在的意义
Since cartying around everything you own can be difficult, representative money makes more sense.
你把黄金交给银行 银行替你保管它
You give your gold to a bank and they keep it safe for you,
作为依据 银行会给你一张收据
and in return they give you a piece of paper
以证明黄金为你所有
acknowledging that you own that gold
这些收据因而可以用作货币
These pieces of paper can therefore used as money
因为任何人都可用它来随时赎回黄金
as anyone can go and redeem the gold at any time.
但如今 几乎所有国家都使用法定货币
But today, almost every country in the world uses fiat money.
法定货币要求人们对政府有信心和信任
Fiat money requires faith and trust in the government
相信政府发行的货币会有价值
that their money will have value
我们以一个相对年轻的国家为例
If we use a relatively young country as an example,
200年间 美国经历了三次货币体系调整
the United States has gone through all three monetary systems within 200 years.
1792年 美国停止使用欧洲货币
In 1792, when the US stopped using European money.
《1792铸币法》确定美元的流通
The Coinage Act of 1792 brought the inception of the US dollar.
起初美元以实物货币的形式存在
The US dollar was originally in the form of commodity money
如金币 银币和铜币
in the form of gold, silver and copper coins.
货币都是由黄金 白银和铜制成
The coins were actually made from real gold, silver and copper,
这些金属货币的自身价值
and the value of the metal that made the coins
与其票面价值一致
were exactly equal to their face value.
美国通过1900年的《金本位法》确立了金本位制
The country then moved onto a mixture of commodity
代替了实物货币与代用货币同时流通的货币制度
and representative money with the 1900 Gold Standard Act.
美国政府发行美元钞票
The government issued dollar bills
无论何时 美元都可兑换成黄金
which could be exchanged for gold at any time
金本位制是一种具有代表性的货币制度
Gold Standard is a type of representative money
当时很多国家都实行金本位制
that many countries used at the time.
这是一种有效准确计算各国汇率的方法
This was an effective way to accurately calculate the exchange rate between countries
例如 1克黄金兑换1英镑
For example, if one gram of gold costs £1 in Britain
或1.5美元
and $ 1.50 in America,
很容易算出 1英镑相当于1.5美元
then you can easily deduce that £1 equals $ 1.50.
金币不再流通 银币也被排除了
Gold coins were discontinued
最终实物货币完全消失
effectively ending commodity money.
1971年 理查德•尼克松官方声明废除金本位制
In 1971, Richard Nixon officially abandoned the Gold Standard
美国开始使用无锚货币
and the US moved onto fiat money.
因此 如今货币不再依靠黄金
So today money isn’t back by gold
或任何实物的价值
or anything else of value for that matter.
再回到眼下的问题
So back to the question at hand;
基础经济学表明 供应量的增加
basic economics tells us that an increase in supply,
会导致需求量降低 进而引起物价下跌
results in a fall in demand and therefore a fall in price.
因此 经济体中流通的货币越多
So the more money in the economy,
货币的单位价值量就越低
the lower the value of each dollar.
这意味着各国可以用本国货币购买更多的美元
Meaning other countries can purchase more dollars in exchange for their currency.
第二幅供求图表显示了
A second supply and demand graph shows
为什么增印钞票会引起物价上涨
why this leads to a rise in prices.
过量的货币导致商品服务需求曲线发生变化
More money in the economy causes a shift in the demand curve for goods and services,
然而由于这与经济产量增长不相协调
but since this isn’t matched by in increase in economic output,
价格必然上涨
prices must rise.
这样说吧 如果政府发行一百万钞票
Look at it this way, if the government printed
并发放到每一个公民手中
a million dollars and posted it to everyone in the country,
结果人人都跑去购买跑车……
causing everyone to go out to buy a sports cars…
而国内的跑车数量有限
but there’s only a finite number of sports cars in the country.
因此合理的解决办法就是提高跑车的销售价格
so the logical thing to do is to increase the price of a sports car.
假使我们用类推法论证以下情况
If we use an analogy to demonstrate this:
设想四个人身处荒岛
imagine there’s 4 people on a desert island,
每人各有10块水果
they each have 10 pieces of fruit each.
所有水果都是等价的
All fruits are considered equal in value.
现在假设他们发现一整片森林全是苹果树
Now imagine they discover a whole forest of apple trees.
因为有了更多的苹果
The nominal value of apples has increased
苹果名义上的总价值增多
because there’s more of them,
但由于供应量增加
but the actual value of an apple has gone down
苹果的实际的单位价值却降低了
due to an increase in supply.
所以 现在10只苹果才能换1只香蕉
Therefore it now costs 10 apples for 1 banana
因为苹果的需求量小 而香蕉的需求量大
since demand for apples is low, but high for bananas.
需要阐明的是 在这次推理中
Just to clarify, in this analogy,
人们代表着不同的国家
the people represent different countries,
水果代表着各国的货币 苹果树则是发行的货币
the fruits their respective currency, and the apples tree is the printed money.
不仅是因为经济原理
But it’s not only because of economic theory
我们才知道印刷过量的钞票是不明智的
that we know printing too much money is bad idea,
历史上有些例子也可以阐明这一点
there’s several examples throughoutrecent history.
最近的一个例子就是
The most recently example is Zimbabwe, who,
2008年 津巴布韦由于印刷钞票遭受了极其严重的通货膨胀
in 2008, suffered extremely high inflation due to printing money.
这是总统罗伯特•穆加比的错误决策
This was the result of some awful decisions
所造成的后果
by the president Robert Mugabe.
当国家经济恶化时
When the economy took a turn for the worse,
穆加比政府增印钞票以支付政府开销
Mugabe printed more money to pay government expenditure.
结果 通货膨胀越发严重
This caused inflation to skyrocket and
2008年11月中旬 通货膨胀达到顶峰
in mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe’s inflation peaked at…
等等 先缓一缓
actually wait hold on a second,
首先 这里需要提供一些背景知识
first I need to provide some context.
美国的通货膨胀率约为2%
Inflation in the United States is around 2 %,
经济学家一致认为通货膨胀率
economists generally agree that inflation
在1-3%之间最佳
level around 1-3% are optimum.
如今 发达国家通胀率在0-5%之间
First-world countries’ inflation rates today range from 0-5 %.
如果一国通货通胀率超过50%
A country is said to have enter hyperinflation
我们称其进入恶性通货膨胀
when their inflation levels exceed 50 %.
要知道 津巴布韦的通货膨胀率在顶峰时期
So, with that in mind, Zimbabwe’s inflation, at its peak,
达到了百分之……6.5乘一千的七次方
reached… 6.5… sextillion %.
换言之 这一数字有22位
Or to put it another way… that number has 22 digits.
情况非常糟糕以至于物价每天都成倍增长
It got so bad that prices doubled every 24 hours.
政府试图解决这一问题
The government tried to solve the problem
不断地增印面值越来越高的钞票
by printing more and more money with higher and higher denominations.
他们还不断往数字末尾加0
They also kept knocking zeroes off the end
对津巴韦布货币进行3次重新估价
by re-valuing the Zimbabwean dollar 3 times,
并依据四种不同的国际标准码发印了四种不同的货币
going through 4 different types of currency with 4 different ISO codes.
最终确定面值前 津巴布韦政府就已印发了百万亿的钞票
Before the final re-denomination, they were printing 100 trillion dollar bills.
毫不夸张地说 人们要用一手推车的钱去买一根面包
People were literally using wheelbarrows full of cash to buy a loaf of bread.
政府一度甚至声称通胀是非法的
The government even made inflation illegal at one point
也确有人因涨价一事而被逮捕
and people were actually arrested for raising prices.
2009年 政府停止流通津巴布韦币
In 2009, the Zimbabwean dollar was abandoned
直到如今 他们仍没有本国货币
and to this day they still have no national currency,
当地人民使用
their people use currencies such as
美元 英镑及欧元
the US dollar, the Pound Sterling, andthe Euro.
在恶性通货膨胀之前 第一批津巴布韦币
Before the hyperinflation, the first
价值约为1.25美元
Zimbabwean dollar was worth about 1.25 US dollars.
如果一张100万亿面额的津巴布韦纸币
If that 100 trillion dollar bill
按这一汇率兑换的话
was worth that exchange rate,
这张钞票的价值就超过
that single bill would be worth more money than there
全世界所有钞票的总额了……而且是两倍
is in the entire world… twice.
虽然这很荒谬可笑
But as ridiculous as this was,
但这也只被认为是历史上第二糟糕的通货膨胀
this is only considered to be the second worst inflation in history,
不及1946年匈牙利的通货膨胀
after Hungary in 1946.
虽然津巴布韦通货膨胀于2008年11月中旬达到顶峰
Although Zimbabwe’s inflation peaked in Mid-November of 2008,
他们总的月度最高通货膨胀率为
their overall highest monthly inflation
百分之796亿
was 79.6 billion %,
而匈牙利月度最高通胀率发生在1946年7月
whereas Hungary’s highest monthly inflation which took place in July, 1946
达到了百分之41.9乘以百万之四次方
was 41.9 quadrillion %.
物价每15小时就翻一倍
With prices doubling every 15 hours.
客观来看
To put that into perspective,
一国正常通胀率在3%左右
a country with a healthy inflation level of around 3 %,
物价每隔23年才增长一倍
prices double every 23 years.
匈牙利货币称为辨戈
Their currency was called the pengo, and as
通货膨胀加剧时 简称为十亿辨戈
inflation rose, the bil-pengo: short for billion pengo.
短期内 还曾是万亿级辨戈
Which is actually one trillion pengo on the short-scale.
匈牙利不但有着月度最高通货膨胀率的记录
As well as the record for the highest monthly inflation,
而且还保持着
Hungary also holds the record
有史以来发行的最高面值钞票的记录
for the highest denomination banknote ever issued
即面值为十亿的辨戈钞票
– the 100 million bil-pengo note.
是为100乘以百万的三次方
(ie – 100 million billion, or 100 quintillion).
短期内为1垓(1后面跟二十个0)辨戈
which is 100 quintillion pengo on the short-scale.
曾印刷了面值为百亿的辨戈钞票 但并未发行流通
1 milliard bil-pengo were printed but never issued.
1941年 辨戈兑美元的汇率比
In 1941, the exchange rate was
约为5比1
about 5 pengo to 1 US dollar.
1946年 当辨戈停止流通时
In 1946, when the currency was discontinued,
情况越发失控
things had gotten so out of hand
假使你拿着整个国家内的每一张钞票
that if you took every single banknote
它们的总价值为
in the entire county, they would have a total value…
十分之一美分
of one tenth… of a US penny.
随后匈牙利改用福林
Hungary then switched to the forint,
辨戈对福林的兑换率为4乘以10的29次方比1
where 1 forint equalled 400 octillion pengos.
这一数字有29个零
That number has 29 zeroes.
所以 这就是政府不能仅靠印发钞票以抵消政府债务的原因
So that’s why government can’t just print money to pay off their debts,
但还没有结束
it does not end well.
同样重要的是准确理解
It’s also important to understand exactly
国家债务是什么
what national debt is.
国家债务比个人债务复杂得多
National debt is muchmore complicated than personal debt.
并不是欠别人钱那么简单
It isn’t simply a case of you owe people money’.
以政府债务最高国
Take the country with the highest National Debt
美国为例
– the United States,
其债务高达17万亿美元
that currently has around 17 trillion dollars of debt,
你或许知道美国最大的债权国是中国
and you’re probably aware the country holds most US debt is China.
虽然事实如此 但在一定程度存在误解
Although that is true, it’s somewhat misleading.
中国的债权只占总债权的8%左右
Of the total debt, China onlyhas about 8%.
实际上 大部分债权
Most of the debt is actually
由美国政府自己
owned by the United States government itself,
美国社会保障署 或美联储等机构所持有
by organisations such as Social Security or the Federal Reserve.
除此之外 还有30%为美国公民持有
On top of this, a further 30% is owned by US citizens.
即使17万亿中8%仍旧是是一笔大数目
And even though 8 % of 17 trillion is still a lot,
中国也不可能踢开白宫的大门
China can’t just knock on the door of the White House
要求其偿还1.2万亿美元
and demand 1.2 trillion dollars.
这并不会凑效
It doesn’t work like that.
美国财政部的主要应对方案是发行长期国债
Basically, the US Department of the Treasury issue treasury bonds.
你可购买这些债券
You can buy these bonds
每年政府会支付债券利息
and the government will pay you interest on that bond every year, then,
一旦债权到期
once the bonds have matured,
他们会赎回债券
they’ll buy the treasury bonds back from you.
当下 如果一国陷入金融危机
Now, if a country gets into financial trouble,
就可能不得不拖欠债务
it may have to default on its debt, which
这基本上意味着你将拿不回自己的钱
basically means you won’t get your money back.
但通常美国被认为是毫无投资风险的国家
But the US is generally considered an extremely risk-free investment
因为美元是世界上使用最广泛 最值得信赖的货币
because the US dollar is the most widely used and the most trustworthy currency in the world
美国宪法甚至明文规定
It’s even written into the Constitution that
美国不会拖欠其债务
the United States cannot default on its debt.
我留给大家最后这个观点
I’ll leave you with this final thought and
以及我所认为可能是最佳的方法来总结
what I think is possibly the best way to sum up
为何政府不能无限印发钞票
why governments can’t just print off unlimited amounts of money?
要是钱长在树上
” If money grew on trees,
它的价值就会和树叶一样
it would be as valuable as leaves”
谢谢观看
Thanks for watching!

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视频概述

通货膨胀的影响

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Ohio

审核员

审核员_DY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EobPnLZiOo8

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