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为什么脱欧对英格兰足球队有害

Why Brexit isn’t “Good for the England Team”

Why Brexit Isn’t Good For The England Team?
为什么脱欧对英格兰足球队不利?
Anxiety over the economic impacts of Brexit have plagued businesses
自2016年全民公投以来 有关英国脱欧对经济影响的焦虑
in the UK, Europe and around the world since the 2016 Referendum.
一直困扰着英国 欧洲和全世界的企业
The UK government’s lack of clarity
英国政府的缺乏透明度
and failure to negotiate a smooth transition out of European Union
以及未能就平稳过渡脱离欧盟进行谈判
has left an immeasurable amount of potential impacts on businesses.
给商业留下了不可估量的潜在影响
and English football is not immune from the impacts.
连英格兰足球也未能幸免于此影响
With the Premier League’s brand as ‘the best league in the world’,
英格兰足球超级联赛作为“全世界最好的联赛”
through its multinational inclusion of the best footballing talent under threat,
通过跨国交流 将各国最好的足球天才揽入旗下
Through the Maastricht treaty,
通过马斯特里赫特条约
and the subsequent Bosman Ruling in 1995,
以及之后在1995年出现的博斯曼法案
the Premier League has hugely benefitted from the freedom of labour movement within the EU.
英超从欧盟内部的劳工自由流动中大获收益
Brexit, for obvious reasons, could hinder their movement.
出于显而易见的原因 英国脱欧会影响球员的流动
EU players and those from European Economic Area countries
欧盟球员和欧洲经济区国家的球员
will be subject to the same visa and work permit restrictions as players
将和来自非欧盟国家的球员一样
from countries outside of the EU,
服从签证和工作许可限制
making the criteria for signing players stricter.
这使得签约球员的标准更加严格
According to football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire,
据足球金融学讲师基兰·马奎尔说
this would potentially push up the price of imports by “ 10 to 15 percent ” due to the extra paperwork.
额外的文书工作会潜在地将进口价格提高“10%至15%”
The FA, however, see Brexit as an opportunity.
然而 英格兰足总将脱欧视为一个机会
The number of English players playing in the Premier League
英格兰籍球员在英超球队中的人数
has been negatively affected by the appetite for foreign players.
深受英超偏爱外籍球员的负面影响
During the inaugural Premier League season in 1992-93,
在英超第一届的1992-93赛季
English players started 70% of games.
英格兰球员在70%的比赛中首发上场
In the 2017/18 season, English players started just 33% of games,
而在2017/18赛季 英格兰球员仅在33%的比赛中首发
a significant reduction and far less than the proportion of native talents
参赛人数锐减且远低于
in the Bundesliga (47.1%), La Liga (58%), Serie A (42.8%) and Ligue 1 (53.2%).
德甲(47.1%)西甲(58%) 意甲(42.8%)和法甲(53.2%)中本土球员的比例
In November 2018, the FA published its plan to reduce
2018年11月 英格兰足总公开计划减少了
the current threshold of non-homegrown players
俱乐部中非本土球员的人数
in a club’s 25-man squad from 17 to 13 by 2021
到2021年 俱乐部的25人阵容中非本土球员将从17人减少到13人
and have stated that these changes are regardless of any specificities
英格兰足总还表示这些改变
in a deal negotiated between the British government and the European Union
跟英国政府与欧盟早前谈成的交易细节毫无关联
The FA believe that Brexit would allow English players to receive more game-time and,
英格兰足总相信脱欧将会使英格兰球员获得更多的比赛时间
therefore, better development.
并因此得到更好的发展
The Premier League has categorically rejected this view,
英超直截了当地驳回了这一观点
stating that there is “no evidence that stronger quotas than exist now
他们认为“没有证据表明比现在更强的配额
would have a positive impact on national teams”.
会对国家队产生积极的影响”
While the FA’s argument seems logical
虽然英格兰足总的观点看似合理
it is likely based on a series of ideas driven by confirmation bias.
但它很可能是基于一系列由确认偏差所驱动的想法
The English national team has underperformed relative to public expectation
自英超成立以来
since the inception of the Premier League.
英格兰国家队的表现一直有负民众的期待
This view was exacerbated by the fortunes
这一观点在 2000年代中后期
of the ill-fated ‘golden generation’ of the mid to late 2000s.
英格兰“黄金一代”国家队战绩不佳时更为激烈
English clubs, littered with integral English players,
英格兰的俱乐部云集完整的英格兰球员阵容
were performing exceptionally in European competitions.
在欧洲比赛中表现尤为突出
Between 2004/05 and 2008/09
在2004/05到2008/09赛季
there was an English club in every final of the Champions League
总有一支英超俱乐部球队跻身欧冠决赛
and an incredible three out of four in the semi-finals of 07/08 and 08/09.
打入07/08及08/09两赛季半决赛的四支球队中奇迹般地有三支英超球队
The likes of Gary Neville, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry, Ashley Cole, Steven Gerrard,
像加里·内维尔 里奥·费迪南 约翰·泰利 阿什利·科尔 史蒂文·杰拉德
Frank Lampard, Paul Scholes, David Beckham and Wayne Rooney
弗兰克·兰帕德 保罗·史高斯 大卫·贝克汉姆和韦恩·鲁尼
were all star quality players
都是具有明星气质的球员
able to be decisive for the clubs on the grandest of stages.
能够为俱乐部在重大赛事中起决定性的作用
For the national team, however, the group disappointed.
然而 就国家队来说 该团队令人失望
Speaking before the low point of the generation,
在这一代球员的低谷
the defeat to Croatia which confirmed England’s failure to qualify for Euro2008,
即英格兰负于克罗地亚 无缘2008年欧洲杯决赛圈之前
Gerrard aired his views on England’s struggles:
杰拉德曾就英格兰队的困境发表过他的观点
“ I think there is a risk of too many foreign players coming over,
“我认为太多的外籍球员会带来风险
which would affect our national team eventually if it’s not already.
这最终会影响我们的国家队
It is important we keep producing players.”
我们持续培养球员很重要”
This theme of thinking was echoed by numerous other figures in the game,
这个观点得到了很多足坛大咖们的赞同
including Sir Alex Ferguson, Sepp Blatter
包括亚历克斯·弗格森爵士 赛普·布拉特
Michel Platini and the FA’s chairman Greg Dyke.
米歇尔·普拉蒂尼 以及英格兰足总主席格雷格·戴克
However, Stefan Szymanski and Simon Kuper’s Soccernomics
然而 史蒂芬·希曼斯基和西蒙·库珀的足球经济学
highlights the problems with import substitution
以英格兰足球为参考
in specific reference to English football.
着重强调了进口替代的问题
If English clubs were allowed to discriminate against players from foreign countries,
他们声称 如果允许英格兰俱乐部排斥外籍球员
they claim , the quality would decline
球队整体质量将会下降
due to not just factors relating to quality,
不仅是与质量相关的因素
but motivation for native footballers;
而且与本土球员的动机因素有关
“ If inferior English players were handed places in Premier League teams,
“如果水平较低的英格兰球员在英超队伍中占有地位
they would have little incentive to improve.”
他们可能会不思进取”
This is because due to the transparent nature of football’s labour market,
由于足球劳动力市场的透明性
economic theory dictates that,
经济理论指出
in the instance of free labour movement,
在劳动力自由流动的情况下
the best players naturally congregate in the best quality leagues
由于足球金融学精英管理的本质
due to the meritocratic nature of football’s finances
和升降级结构
and the promotion and relegation structure.
最优秀的球员自然地聚集在最高质量的联赛中
Therefore, English footballers have the distinct advantage
因此 英格兰球员具备的明显优势
of the world’s premier football competition in their back garden;
就是他们的后花园里有世界顶级的足球比赛
the highest development standard is set for them.
有为他们量身定制的最高的发展标准
Szymanski and Kuper back up their hypothesis with statistics,
希曼斯基和库珀用数据来支撑他们的假设
comparing England’s performances in the era of a ‘ British league ’,
他们将英格兰自1968年到1992年
from 1968 to 1992,
在“英国联赛”时代的表现
with their performances since 1998
与1998年以来的表现进行了对比
deliberately leaving out the 1966 World Cup,
特意去掉了1966年世界杯
as it was an anomaly played exclusively at home.
因为它在本土举行 是个例外
They found that ‘In that first ‘British’ period up to 1992,
他们发现在截止到1992年的第一个“英国”时期
England reached just one World Cup semi-final, in 1990.
英格兰仅仅在1990年打入了世界杯半决赛
And that was an exception.
而且那是个例外
In those years, England reached the quarter-finals of major tournaments
那些年 英格兰在十三次重大赛事中
only four times in 13 attempts.
仅有四次进入四分之一决赛
By contrast, in the “international” period since 1998,
相比之下 在始于1998年的“国际”时期
they have reached four quarter-finals in just eight attempts.
他们在八次冲击中就有四次进入了四分之一决赛
Moreover, their win percentage at major tournaments
此外 他们在重大赛事中的胜率
jumped from 52% in 1968-1992 to 62% in the ‘international’ period
也从1968年到1992年之间的52%增加到了“国际”时期的62%
The figures suggest that if anything,
数据表明 如果二者之间有什么区别的话
the international league has been good for the England team.
那就是国际化的联赛对英格兰队有好处
Furthermore, Szymanski and Kuper’s statistical research took place
此外 希曼斯基和库珀的统计研究
took place before the 2018 World Cup,
是在2018年世界杯之前
a tournament in which England reached the semi-final.
此届世界杯英格兰队打入了半决赛
The Premier League’s claim that there is “no evidence
英超声称 “没有证据表明
that stronger quotas would have a positive impact on national teams”
更强的配额会对国家队产生积极影响”
certainly passes the eye test.
从表面上看 这一声明当然可以接受
The very fact that the Premier League is so fiercely competitive on a weekly basis
事实上 以周为单位的英超 竞争太过激烈
both improves the development of English-born players by setting a higher bar,
通过设置更高的门槛提高英格兰本土球员的发展
but negatively affects the national team
但却以与人才发展无关的方式
in a way unrelated to talent development – exhaustion.
给国家队带来了消极影响——精疲力竭
Wayne Rooney playing successive World Cups while half-fit is a classic example.
韦恩·鲁尼在低迷中连续征战几届世界杯 就是个典型案例
The Premier League’s competitiveness also makes clubs’ reliance on key players,
英超的激烈竞争也让俱乐部依赖关键球员
sometimes in the form of rushing them back from injury.
有时 这些球员伤未痊愈就匆匆返回赛场
This can lead to severe drops in form or reoccurring injuries,
这会导致状态低迷或旧伤复发
neither of which are particularly useful to the national team.
这两种情况对国家队都没有好处
To combat exhaustion, the FA have agreed with
为了缓解疲劳 英格兰足总同意
the Premier League to introduce a ‘winter break’,
在英超引入“冬歇期”
a ten-day hiatus in February, from the 2019/20 season onwards.
即从2019/20赛季开始 在二月份有十天的间歇期
While this is a very short break in comparison to other European leagues
虽然与其他欧洲联赛相较 英超的冬歇期很短
it is a significant step in the right direction
但是伴随着英格兰足总杯第五轮重赛的取消
along with the scrapping of the FA Cup 5th round replays
这是向着正确方向迈出的重要一步
It seems, therefore, that England’s perceived’ underperformance
因此 英格兰队的不佳表现
is less the fault of foreign imports in the Premier League
似乎并不是在英超中引进外籍球员的错
but more related to the unforgiving nature of the English football calendar
更多地要归咎于不可原谅的英格兰足球日程表
and managing squad harmony.
以及队伍建设的和谐稳定
Meaning of course, that whatever talent drain results from Brexit
这当然意味着 无论人才流失与英国脱欧是否有关
is unlikely to be directly linked to a dramatic improvement
都不可能直接给国家队战绩
in the national team’s fortunes.
带来戏剧性提升

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视频概述

本视频从足球金融学的角度分析了脱欧对英格兰足球队不好的原因。热爱足球、关心时事的你不容错过。

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHmjlVzEPiY

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