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脱欧为啥玩脱了 影响又如何

Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | Alexander Betts

我是英国人
I am British.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
从前从没觉得这句话说出来那么悲哀
Never before has the phrase “I am British” elicited so much pity.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我来自一座小岛
I come from an island where many of us like to believe
那儿的许多人都延续着千百年来的传统
there’s been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.
我们希望能历史性地影响他人
We tend to have historically imposed change on others
但却收效甚微
but done much less of it ourselves.
所以当我在6月24日早上醒来的时候
So it came as an immense shock to me
发现我们国家公投脱欧成功
when I woke up on the morning of June 24
我整个人都懵了
to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,
我的首相辞职
my Prime Minister had resigned,
而苏格兰正酝酿另一次公投
and Scotland was considering a referendum
试图脱离英国
that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.
因此对我而言这无疑是个巨大的打击
So that was an immense shock for me,
对其他许多人而言也是个巨大的打击
and it was an immense shock for many people,
但是在公投结束后的接下来几天中
but it was also something that, over the following several days,
我国的政界
created a complete political meltdown
遭遇了一次完全的灾难
in my country.
第二次公投的呼声越来越高
There were calls for a second referendum,
几乎就像追一场体育赛事一样
almost as if, following a sports match,
我们要求反对派重新投票
we could ask the opposition for a replay.
每个人都在谴责他人
Everybody was blaming everybody else.
人们责难首相
People blamed the Prime Minister
因为是他呼吁发起了这次公投
for calling the referendum in the first place.
他们责难反对派领袖没有尽力为国家争取
They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.
年轻人埋怨老年人
The young accused the old.
高学历埋怨低学历
The educated blamed the less well-educated.
不过这次完全的政治灾难
That complete meltdown was made even worse
最悲剧的地方在于
by the most tragic element of it:
在英国由此引发的排外情绪和种族歧视
levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain
是我这一辈中
at a level that I have never seen before
前所未见的
in my lifetime.
人们都在谈论我们国家会不会变成小英格兰
People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,
或者用我同事的话说
or, as one of my colleagues put it,
我们国家会不会变成上世纪五十年代那种
whether we’re about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park
漂浮在大西洋上的怀旧主题公园
floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
但我思考的问题是
But my question is really,
我们是不是反应过度了
should we have the degree of shock that we’ve experienced since?
一夜之间真的改变了那么多事情吗
Was it something that took place overnight?
或者说有没有更深层的结构性因素导致我们走到现在这样
Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?
所以我想退一步 问两个非常基本的问题
So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.
第一 英国脱欧意味着什么
First, what does Brexit represent,
这里的意义不仅之于英国
not just for my country,
更之于全世界
but for all of us around the world?
第二 我们能做些什么
And second, what can we do about it?
我们该怎么回答
How should we all respond?
所以第一 英国脱欧意味着什么
So first, what does Brexit represent?
后见之明是个好东西
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
英国脱欧对于我们的社会
Brexit teaches us many things about our society
以至于全球社会都颇具教育意义
and about societies around the world.
它提醒我们 对于社会的分裂
It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
我们似乎尴尬得不自知
how divided our societies are.
投票结果在年龄 教育 阶级和地域上都有极大差别
The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.
年轻人们没怎么投票
Young people didn’t turn out to vote in great numbers,
但参与投票的年轻人都想留在欧盟
but those that did wanted to remain.
但年长一些的人们真的希望脱离欧盟
Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.
地域上讲 伦敦和苏格兰地区
Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed
强烈希望能留在欧盟
to being part of the European Union,
而其他地区的人们却持完全相反的意见
while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.
这些意见的不同才是我们真正需要严肃对待的
Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.
但更进一步讲 这次的公投
But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something
教我们看到了今天政治的本质
about the nature of politics today.
现代政治早已不仅仅是左右之分
Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.
也不仅仅关乎税收和财政
It’s no longer just about tax and spend.
今天的政治是全球化
It’s about globalization.
现代政治的根本分歧在于
The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization
拥护全球化或恐惧全球化
and those that fear globalization.
(掌声)
(Applause)
如果我们来看看他们想脱欧的理由
If we look at why those who wanted to leave —
我们把他们成为”脱欧者” 与之对应的是”留欧者”
we call them “Leavers,” as opposed to “Remainers” —
就能发现民调中
we see two factors in the opinion polls
显示的最重要的两大因素
that really mattered.
首先是移民问题 其次是国家主权问题
The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,
这两者反映了人们想要重新掌握自己生活主动权的意愿
and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives
并且感受到了政客们并没有重视这两个问题
and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.
但那些想法代表着恐惧和社会异化
But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.
它们显示了我们大多数人都会拒绝的
They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders
各各种方式倒退回民族主义的内含
in ways that many of us would reject.
我想说的是 真实情况远比我们所看的
What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,
所谓自由国际主义云云复杂得多
that liberal internationalists,
拿我自己来说 我坚信我自己就是大局中的一部分
like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,
我们需要把自己写入历史的大局当中
need to write ourselves back into the picture
这样我们才能了解到我们通过怎样的方式走到了今天一个什么样位置
in order to understand how we’ve got to where we are today.
我们来看看全英的投票图
When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,
分歧显而易见
we can visibly see the divisions.
蓝色区域想留欧
The blue areas show Remain
红色区域想脱欧
and the red areas Leave.
我看到这个的时候
When I looked at this,
给我个人震撼最大之处在于
what personally struck me was the very little time in my life
我几乎没有在红色区域生活过
I’ve actually spent in many of the red areas.
我突然意识到 看看英国排名前五十的地区
I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
都是强烈希望脱欧的深红地区
that have the strongest Leave vote,
我这辈子前后加在一起只在这些地区生活过四天
I’ve spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.
而在这些地区中
In some of those places,
我甚至连有些投票区的名字都不知道
I didn’t even know the names of the voting districts.
我相当吃惊
It was a real shock to me,
这暗示了像我一样
and it suggested that people like me
自认为包容 开放 宽厚的人
who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,
也许并不如我们自以为了解这个国家和社会一样
perhaps don’t know our own countries and societies
了解我们的国家和我们的社会
nearly as well as we like to believe.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
我们需要找到一种新的方式
And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way
来跟那些投脱欧票的人解释全球化
to narrate globalization to those people,
这种挑战让我意识到对于那些不一定上过大学的人
to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,
或者那些没有跟随互联网成长起来的人
who haven’t necessarily grown up with the Internet,
或是那些没有机会出去旅游的人来说
that don’t get opportunities to travel,
他们似乎并没有被我们经常挂在嘴边的
they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive
那些自认为颇具说服性的自由主义泡沫给说服
in our often liberal bubbles.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
这意味着我们需要更广泛地包容和理解
It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.
在投脱欧票的人群中 少数人四处散播对政治的恐惧和仇恨
In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,
向周围人群编造谎言和怀疑言论
creating lies and mistrust
例如 若选择留在欧盟
around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe
就能减少来到欧洲的难民和寻求避难者的数量
could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
而脱欧对于来自欧盟外的移民
when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration
没有任何影响
from outside the European Union.
但对于愿意脱欧的绝大多数人而言
But for a significant majority of the Leave voters
是对政治制度制立幻灭的焦虑
the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.
对大多数人而言这是一张抗议票
This was a protest vote for many,
表达出无人代表他们
a sense that nobody represented them,
没有一个政党为他们说话的感受
that they couldn’t find a political party that spoke for them,
因此 他们拒绝这样的政治制度
and so they rejected that political establishment.
类似情况多见于欧洲以及其他许多自由民主国家
This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.
我们可以看见在美国支持特朗普的人越来越多【唐纳德·特朗普:美国新当选总统】
We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,
在匈牙利支持欧尔班·维克托民族主义的人越来越多【欧尔班·维克托:匈牙利现任总理】
with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
在法国支持玛丽娜·勒庞的人也越来越多【玛丽娜·勒庞:法国极右翼政党领导人】
with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.
英国脱欧的幽灵也存在于社会各阶层中
The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.
所以我们要问的就是我的第二个问题
So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,
我们该如何应对这样的问题
which is how should we collectively respond?
对我们所有人而言 我们都有意去构建一个自由 开放 宽容的社会
For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,
我们亟需一个新视野
we urgently need a new vision,
一个更包容 更可容纳全球化的视野
a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,
一个团结人民而不是弃之不顾的视野
one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.
这样全球化的视野
That vision of globalization
看到的是全球化给我们带来的积极之处
is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.
经济学家们一致认为
The consensus amongst economists
自由贸易 资本流动
is that free trade, the movement of capital,
人民跨国界流动
the movement of people across borders
总体上来讲 对所有人都是有益的
benefit everyone on aggregate.
国际关系学者一致认为
The consensus amongst international relations scholars
全球化会带来相互依赖性
is that globalization brings interdependence,
从而带来合作与和平
which brings cooperation and peace.
但全球化也会带来再分配效应【再分配效应:收入由消费者向生产者再分配】
But globalization also has redistributive effects.
由此区别出了赢家和输家
It creates winners and losers.
以移民为例
To take the example of migration,
我们都知道 在几乎任何情况下
we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole
移民对总体经济大有裨益
under almost all circumstances.
但与此同时
But we also have to be very aware
我们也对再分配后果有所提防
that there are redistributive consequences,
因为重点在于 低技能的移民
that importantly, low-skilled immigration
会导致我们社会中最贫困阶层的工资下降
can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies
也会给房价造成压力
and also put pressure on house prices.
但我们并不能因此就忽视全球化的积极作用
That doesn’t detract from the fact that it’s positive,
那意味着会有更多的人享受到全球化带来的好处
but it means more people have to share in those benefits
并且意识到这样的好处
and recognize them.
2002年 前联合国秘书长安南
In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
在耶鲁大学发表了一个演讲
gave a speech at Yale University,
演讲的主题就是包容性全球化
and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.
就是在那次演讲中 他创造了”包容性全球化”一词
That was the speech in which he coined that term.
我引述他说的话
And he said, and I paraphrase,
全球化的大门必须向所有人打开
“The glass house of globalization has to be open to all
如此才能维持安定
if it is to remain secure.
偏执和无知
Bigotry and ignorance
是排斥和反对全球化的丑陋外表
are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization.”
这一包容性全球化的思想在2008年
That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008
一次欧洲各国领导人参与的
in a conference on progressive governance
改革型政府管理会议上又被提起
involving many of the leaders of European countries.
但在2008年因经济危机影响造成各项政策紧缩
But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,
这一概念又消失得无影无踪
the concept disappeared almost without a trace.
全球化已成为新自由主义的议程
Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.
与全球化带给我们每个人的益处相比
It’s perceived to be part of an elite agenda
我们更能感受到它成为了精英议程的一部分
rather than something that benefits all.
对今天全球化的发展而言 在更加包容性的基础上
And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis
它还需要再创造
than it is today.
那么问题来了 我们如何达到这个目标
So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?
我们如何在表达恐惧和异化的同时
How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation
又对屈服于仇外和民族主义
while on the other hand refusing vehemently
做到全力拒绝呢
to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?
这是我们所有人面对的问题
That is the question for all of us.
我认为 从一个社会科学家的角度来看
And I think, as a social scientist,
社会科学提供了一些解决的思路
that social science offers some places to start.
我们的转变必须是思想上和物质上的改变
Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,
我想提供四个想法作为思路
and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.
首先是关于公民教育
The first relates to the idea of civic education.
英国脱欧让我们看到了
What stands out from Brexit
公众认知和经验现实之间的差距
is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.
这种差距意味着我们进入了后事实社会
It’s been suggested that we’ve moved to a postfactual society,
在这个社会中 证据和真相都不再重要
where evidence and truth no longer matter,
谎言与真理有相同的地位
and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.
所以我们如何—
So how can we —
(掌声)
(Applause)
我们如何在我们自由民主的社会中重建对真理和证据的信任
How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?
必须从教育开始
It has to begin with education,
但也必须从有巨大差距的认知差异开始
but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.
在2014年 普索斯莫里民意调查机构
In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI
公布了一份关于移民问题态度的调查报告
published a survey on attitudes to immigration,
报告显示 随着移民数量的增加
and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,
公众对于移民所带来问题的焦虑也随之增加
so public concern with immigration also increases,
但其中没有显示两者间的因果关系
although it obviously didn’t unpack causality,
因为这其中的原由可能不是因为移民数量增加本身引起
because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers
而是政策和媒体的引导
but the political and media narrative around it.
但这个调查同样显示了
But the same survey also revealed
对于移民文化的
huge public misinformation
巨大错报和误解
and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.
例如 报告中显示的英国人对于移民的态度
For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,
公众认为 寻求难民庇护移民的水平
the public believed that levels of asylum
远大于其在移民中所占的比例
were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,
但他们也同样认为 教育移民的水平
but they also believed the levels of educational migration
比实际上的教育移民比例
were far lower as a proportion of overall migration
要低得多
than they actually are.
所以我们需要说明的这种错误消息
So we have to address this misinformation,
就是在全球化关键点上 理想与现实带来的差距
the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.
尽管需要从小给孩子们灌输这样的意识
And that can’t just be something that’s left to our schools,
但这些东西学校是教不了的
although that’s important to begin at an early age.
这需要我们作为社会一份子的
It has to be about lifelong civic participation
长时间的社会融入和公共参与度
and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.
我思考的第二件事
The second thing that I think is an opportunity
是给予鼓励跨不同社区互动一个机会
is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.
(掌声)
(Applause)
我观察到非常显著的一点
One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,
英国对于移民的态度
looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,
是讽刺性的
is that ironically, the regions of my country
英国对于移民最包容的地区
that are the most tolerant of immigrants
有着数量最大的移民
have the highest numbers of immigrants.
几个例子 伦敦和英国东南部有着最多的移民数量
So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,
而到目前为止 这些地区是对移民最宽容的地区
and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.
而那些移民数量最少的地区
It’s those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration
都是最排外 最无法容忍移民的地区
that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.
我们需要鼓励交换计划
So we need to encourage exchange programs.
我们需要确保可能不能出去旅行的老年人
We need to ensure that older generations who maybe can’t travel
能够上网
get access to the Internet.
我们甚至需要在地区和国家的层面上
We need to encourage, even on a local and national level,
鼓励更多的人民流动 更多的公民参与社会
more movement, more participation,
鼓励跟那些我们不了解
more interaction with people who we don’t know
甚至与我们意见相左的人交流
and whose views we might not necessarily agree with.
我思考的第三件事 非常重要
The third thing that I think is crucial, though,
也非常基本
and this is really fundamental,
就是 我们要确保每个人
is we have to ensure that everybody shares
都享受到全球化带来的好处
in the benefits of globalization.
财经时报在英国脱欧后公布的这张图引人思考
This illustration from the Financial Times post-Brexit is really striking.
这张图显示 那些投脱欧票的人
It shows tragically that those people who voted to leave the European Union
实际上正是那些享受到英国与欧盟贸易
were those who actually benefited the most materially
带来极大实质性好处的人
from trade with the European Union.
但问题在于 那些地方的那些人
But the problem is that those people in those areas
并没有意识到他们是受益人
didn’t perceive themselves to be beneficiaries.
他们不认为他们正享受着
They didn’t believe that they were actually getting access
全球间不断增长的贸易和流动性所带来的实质性利益
to material benefits of increased trade and increased mobility around the world.
我主要研究难民问题
I work on questions predominantly to do with refugees,
而我花了大力气 主要去向
and one of the ideas I spent a lot of my time preaching,
发展中国家宣扬的一个想法
mainly to developing countries around the world,
就是 为了鼓励难民整合
is that in order to encourage the integration of refugees,
我们不能仅仅只给难民提供方便
we can’t just benefit the refugee populations,
同时我们也有必要向难民驻地的社区说明他们关心的事
we also have to address the concerns of the host communities in local areas.
但现在看来
But in looking at that,
政策之一
one of the policy prescriptions is that we have to provide
就是我们得在多移民地区
disproportionately better education facilities, health facilities,
不成比例地提供教育设施
access to social services
医疗设施等社会服务
in those regions of high immigration
以向当地人民澄清他们关心的事
to address the concerns of those local populations.
但是我们向发展中国家说明了这个情况
But while we encourage that around the developing world,
就有了前车之鉴
we don’t take those lessons home
还可以基于我们的社会与他们进行合作
and incorporate them in our own societies.
进一步讲 如果我们真的严肃看待这个问题的话
Furthermore, if we’re going to really take seriously
我们需要确保能得到经济利益
the need to ensure people share in the economic benefits,
我们的公司和商业机构也需要一个让能人民认识到
our businesses and corporations need a model of globalization
并且参与到的全球化模式
that recognizes that they, too, have to take people with them.
我想提的第四个也是最后一个想法是
The fourth and final idea I want to put forward
我们需要负责任的政策
is an idea that we need more responsible politics.
几乎没有社会科学证据显示
There’s very little social science evidence
在对于全球化的问题上有任何差异
that compares attitudes on globalization.
但是各项调查都显示人们对此态度确有不同
But from the surveys that do exist,
我们能看到的 是不同国家
what we can see is there’s huge variation across different countries
以及在这些国家中的不同时期
and time periods in those countries
一方面对于移民或人口流动
for attitudes and tolerance
另一方面自由贸易这样的问题
of questions like migration and mobility on the one hand
所表现的不同态度和包容力
and free trade on the other.
但从数据上粗略地看来 我可以假设
But one hypothesis that I think emerges from a cursory look at that data
极端化的社会远不如全球化更具包容性
is the idea that polarized societies are far less tolerant of globalization.
正如过去的瑞典
It’s the societies like Sweden in the past,
当今的加拿大
like Canada today,
由中立派执政
where there is a centrist politics,
或左右两排共同执政
where right and left work together,
这样我们才能把对待全球化的态度指引到积极正确的道路上
that we encourage supportive attitudes towards globalization.
我们现在看到的世界 就是一个可悲的极端分化的世界
And what we see around the world today is a tragic polarization,
执政理念向左的双方不愿对话
a failure to have dialogue between the extremes in politics,
导致距离鼓励交流和分享理解的自由地之间
and a gap in terms of that liberal center ground
有一条巨大的鸿沟
that can encourage communication and a shared understanding.
我们可能目前还达不到这样的要求
We might not achieve that today,
但我们至少可以呼吁我们的政客和媒体
but at the very least we have to call upon our politicians and our media
放下恐惧的言论 对彼此都宽容一点
to drop a language of fear and be far more tolerant of one another.
(掌声)
(Applause)
这些想法都是暂时的
These ideas are very tentative,
因为这还需要我们每个人参与使其成为一个包容的 共享的计划
and that’s in part because this needs to be an inclusive and shared project.
我也还是英国人
I am still British.
我也还是欧洲人
I am still European.
我也还是全球公民
I am still a global citizen.
对于那些相信
For those of us who believe
我们的身份并不互相排斥的人
that our identities are not mutually exclusive,
我们需要共同协作
we have to all work together
确保全球化惠及每一个人
to ensure that globalization takes everyone with us
不会落下任何一个人
and doesn’t leave people behind.
那时 我们才能和民主及全球化和解
Only then will we truly reconcile democracy and globalization.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcwuBo4PvE0

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