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为什么外星人将是人类的噩梦

Why Alien Life Would be our Doom - The Great Filter

设想一下 如果NASA今天宣布发现了外星人
Imagine NASA announced todaythat they found aliens,
在火星上发现了细菌
bacteria on Mars,
在木卫二海洋里发现了怪鱼
weird alien fish in the oceans of Europa,
还在土卫六上发现了古外星人遗迹
and also ancient alien ruins on Titan.
那会不会很赞?
Wouldn’t that be great?
哦不 这会是个恐怖新闻
Well, no. It would be horrible news
甚至更加可怕
devastating even.
这意味着人类末路已成必然
It could mean that the end of humanityis almost certain
并且可能就近在眼前
and that it might be coming soon.
为什么呢?
Why?
为什么这个有生之年最激动人心的发现
Why would the most excitingdiscovery of our lifetime
会是个坏消息?
be bad?
让我们设想一下生命的发展史
Let us imagine the development of life
从生命伊始一直到我们如今
from its inception to us today,
就像是一段楼梯
as a flight of stairs
第一阶段是无生命的化学物质
The first step is dead chemistry
它们需要自我结合成可以自复制的模式
that needs to assemble itself into self-replicating patterns,
过程稳定且可逆
stable and resilient
但也有突变和进化
But also able to change and evolve.
第二阶段就是早期生命向复杂演变
The second step is for our early life to become more complex.
结构构成更复杂
Able to build more complicated structures,
能量利用更为有效
and use the available energymuch more efficiently
在下个阶段
On the next step,
这些细胞会结合成多细胞生物
these cells combine to become multicellular beings
种类及其繁多
and enabling unbelievable variety
构成也更加复杂
and further complexity
再往上一个阶段
The step above,
进化出了大脑发达的物种
sees the species evolve big brains.
开创使用工具的历史先河并共享知识
Enabling the use of tools culture and shared knowledge,
复杂性更进一步
which creates even higher complexity.
这个物种就成了该星球的万灵之长
The species can now become thedominant life-form on its planet,
并按需改造星球
and change it according to its needs.
然后走出星球的首次试探就出现了
First, shy attempts to leave itsplanet are happening.
这正是我们的现状
This is where we are now.
就我们所知 这是一种生物本能
it’s in the nature of life, as we know it,
扩张 并把基因传向每一寸土地
to reach out, to cover every niche it can.
因为行星限制了生存空间
And since planets have a limitedcarrying capacity and life-span.
一个物种如果想存活
if a species wants to survive,
它会渴求更大的领地以扩充族群
it will look for more places to spread to.
所以现阶段的进阶阶层就是合乎逻辑的
So the steps above the currentones seem logical.
殖民太阳系
Colonize your own solar system,
然后向远处的其他行星传递
then spread further to reach other stars.
直到走向最终的大概率阶段
to the possible final step,
发展成星系文明
becoming a galaxy-wide civilization.
这很可能是文明放之宇宙皆准的进阶方式
It’s very likely that this is a universalprinciple for civilizations.
无论它们来自哪儿
No matter where they’re from.
如果某一物种有足够的竞争力和控制力
If a species is competitive and driven enough
去制衡全球
to take control over its planet.
它们可能不会就此止步
They’ll probably not stop there.
我们都知道
We know that
银河系有大约5000亿行星
there are up to 500 billion planets in the Milky Way,
其中至少有100亿类地行星
at least 10 billion Earth-like planets.
它们许多都距地球十亿多光年
Many have been around billionsof years longer than earth.
但我们在其中并没观察到文明迹象
But we’re observing zero galactic civilizations.
按理说我们应该能发现些迹象
We should be able to see something,
但什么都没发现
but there’s nothing,
太空死一般的空寂
space seems to be empty and dead.
这意味着有东西在限制着生命体
This means something is preventing livingthings from climbing the staircase,
向比现阶段更高处的进化
beyond the step we’re on right now.
有东西使突破成星际文明变得
Something that makes becoming a galactic civilization
极其困难
extremely hard,
甚至是不可能实现
maybe impossible.
这就是大过滤器
This is the Great Filter.
一个难以克服的挑战或危机
a challenge or danger so hard to overcome.
所有遇到的物种都不能幸免
That it eliminates almost everyspecies that encounters it.
有两种情况
There are two scenarios:
一种是 我们是天选之人
One means we are incredibly special and lucky,
另一种则是 我们注定
the other one means we are doomed
或者说事实上已经走向了灭亡
and practically already dead.
这取决于那个过滤器是在我们发展现阶段
It depends on where the filter is on our staircase.
之前还是之后
behind, or ahead of us?
设想一
Scenario one.
过滤器在我们发展现阶段的后面
The filter is behind us,
我们是首个文明
we are the first.
假如过滤器在后面
If the filter is behind us,
这意味着我们发展中经历过的某个阶段
that means that one of the steps we passed
是几乎不可能度过的
is almost impossible to take.
那是哪个阶段
Which step could it be?
出现生命这件事本身是否就是极为罕见的
Is life itself extremely rare?
很难对生命是怎样从死物进化而出的过程
It’s very hard to make predictions about how likely it is
进行预测
for life to emerge from death things.
关于这个没有统一的意见
There is no consensus.
一些科学家认为 在适宜的环境下
Some scientists think it develops everywhere,
就会有生命萌芽
where the conditions are right.
另一些则认为地球是宇宙中
Others think that Earth might be
仅有的生命摇篮
the only living place in the universe.
另一个可能的阶段是复杂的动物细胞
another candidate is the step of complex animal cells.
在这个阶段出现了一个极特殊的事件
A very specific thing happened on this step,
而且据我们所知它仅仅发生过一次
and as far as we know, it happened exactly once.
一个原始的狩猎细胞吞下了另一个细胞
A primitive hunter cells swallowed another cell,
但它没有毁灭它
but instead of devouring it,
而是和它形成了一个联合
the two cells formed a union.
这个大一些的细胞提供庇护
The bigger cell provided shelter,
注意着与环境之间的互动
took care of interacting with theenvironment
以及提供资源
and providing resources.
而这个小的细胞利用新家和免费的材料
While the smaller one used itsnew home and free stuff,
来专注于给它的房东提供额外的能量
to focus on providing a lot of extra energy for its host.
有了这些充沛的能量 这个房东细胞得以长得更大了
with the abundant energy, the host cell could grow more than before.
也得以建立新的东西来提升自己
and build new and expensive things to improve itself.
而这个客人细胞变成了大细胞的动力室
while the guest became the powerhouse of the cell.
星球上的所有生物都由这样的细胞组成
These cells make up every animal on the planet.
或许在银河中
Maybe there are billions of bacteria,
有行星上覆着数以千计的细菌
covered planets, in the Milky Way.
但除了我们 没有一种生物
But not a single one apart from us,
达到我们这种复杂的生命层次
has achieved our level of complexity,
或智慧层次
or intelligence.
我们人类因为有填字游戏和浪漫小说
we humans feel very smart and sophisticated
而自认为聪明且复杂
with our crossword puzzles and romantic novels.
但最重要的是有一个大脑袋
But a big brain is first and foremost,
这一项非常昂贵的进化投资
a very expensive evolutionary investment.
它们脆弱易碎
They are fragile.
不能帮助我们与熊赤手空拳的搏斗
They don’t help in a fistfight with a bear.
而且还耗费大量的能量
They cost enormous amounts of energy.
除此之外
And despite them
现代智人耗费了20万年
it took modern humans 200,000 years
才从削尖的木棍进化到文明
to get from sharp sticks to civilization.
变得智慧并不意味着你就胜出了
Being smart does not mean you get to win automatically.
也许拥有智慧不是多好的事
Maybe intelligence is just not so great
但幸运的是它对我们很有用
and we’re lucky that it worked out for us
设想二
Scenario two
过滤器在我们发展现阶段的前面
the filter is ahead of us
而其他大多数生命都已经灭亡了
plenty of others died already
在我们前面的过滤器比我们目前为止所遭遇的
A great filter before us is orders of magnitude
所有东西都要危险多个数量级
more dangerous than anything we encountered so far
即使有大灾难灭杀了大多数的人
Even if a major disaster killed most of us
或是让我们的发展倒退数千年
or threw us back thousands of years
然而只要我们有恢复的机会
We would survive and recover
我们还是会幸存下来并且休养生息
and if we can recover
即使那将花费数百万年
even if it takes a million years,
这些都不叫大过滤器
then it’s not a great filter
它不过是成为星系文明路上的一个绊脚石
But just a roadblock to an eventual galactic civilization
在宇宙的时间表中
On universal timescales
即使数百万年也不过一眨眼
even millions of years are just the blink of an eye
如果大过滤器真的在我们前方
If a great filter really lies before us
它是如此危险
it has to be so dangerous
具有完全的毁灭性 强大无比
So purely devastating and powerful
以至于它在数十亿年间
that it has destroyed most
摧毁了大部分星系中的
if not all advanced civilizations in our galaxy,
非先进文明
over billions of years
有一个令人非常气馁的假说
A really daunting and depressing hypothesis
是说一旦一个种族控制了它的星球
is that once a species takes control over its planet
那它就已经走在了灭亡的道路上了
It’s already on the path to self-destruction
科技就是实现这一目标的好方法
Technology is a good way to achieve that
它必须是某种如此显而易见的东西
It needs to be something that’s so obvious
以至于人人都能发现它
that virtually everybody discovers it,
并且如此危险
and so dangerous
以至于它的发现几乎是一场事关物种存亡的灾难
that its discovery leads almost universally to an existential disaster
一场大规模的核战争
A large-scale nuclear war
纳米技术的失控
nanotechnology that gets out of control
完美超级细菌的基因工程
Genetic engineering of the perfect super bug
一场点燃了整个大气层的实验
an experiment that lights the whole atmosphere on fire
也有可能是人工智能
It might be a super intelligent AI
或无意或蓄意地摧毁它的创造者们
that accidentally or purposely destroys its creators
所有这些事我们甚至都不能看见它的来临
All things that we can’t even see coming right now
或更简单的到来方式
Or it’s way simpler
生物具有如此强大的竞争力以至于可以掌控它的星球
species is competitive enough to take over their planet
当和其他同类竞争资源时必定会对星球造成破坏
necessarily destroy it while competing with each other for resources
也许并不是每个生态系统中都有
maybe there aren’t runaway chain reactions in every ecosystem
一旦开始行动就不灵活了的失控连锁反应
that once set in motion are not fixable
如此一旦一个文明强大到
And so once a civilization is powerful enough
能够改变空气的构成
to change the composition of its atmosphere.
他们将使得他们的星球完全不能居住
They make their planet uninhabitable 100% of the time
让我们希望如果过滤器在我们前面的话
Let’s hope that that’s not the case
不会发生这种事吧
if the filter is ahead of us
我们的胜算非常小
our odds are really bad
那我们还能期待些什么呢
what we can hope for
这就是为什么说发现比人类先进的生命是一件可怕的事
This is why finding life beyond Earth would be horrible
宇宙中常见的生命
The more common life is in the universe
是更先进而且更复杂的
and the more advanced and complex it is.
极有可能的是 它就是在我们前面的那个过滤器
The more likely, it becomes that a filter is in front of us
细菌是有害的
Bacteria would be bad
小动物是更有害的
small animals would be worse
智慧生命是危言耸听的
intelligent life would be alarmist
古代外星文明废墟是可怕的
ruins of ancient alien civilizations would be horrible
目前对我们最有利的情况是
The best case scenario for us right now
火星上是荒芜的
is that Mars is sterile
木卫二的海洋是没有生命的
that Europa’s oceans are devoid of life
还有银河系的巨大臂膀的
and the vast arms of the Milky Way
港湾里只有死寂的大陆
Harbor only empty oceans hugging dead continents
这里有数十亿空的行星等着我们去探索
That there are billions of empty planets waiting to be discovered
去用生命填满
and to be filled up with life
数十亿的新家
billions of new homes
等着我们抵达
Waiting for us to finally arrive
我们发现类人地外生命
How likely is it that we’ll find life outside of Earth
的可能性有多大
that is similar to us
这取决于
Well that depends on
有多少颗行星
how many planets there are out there
处在它们的恒星周围的适居带区域
in their stars Goldilocks zone
并且有水是液态的
the area around the star where water can be liquid
因为不同大小不同位置的恒星的
Because stars come in all sizes and configurations
适居带是不同的
this zone is different for every star system
而且需要通过大量物理计算来算出
and requires a little bit of physics to figure out
如果你觉着这像个玩笑
If that sounds like fun to you
这个来自brilliant的测验可以帮助我们分析
this quiz from brilliant helps to break down the maths
如何计算这个数字
for exactly how this is calculated
Brilliant 是一个解决问题类的网站
Brilliant is a problem-solving website
它通过引导你解决问题
that teaches you to think like a scientist
来教你像科学家那样思考
by guiding you through problems
他们把像这样的概念
They take concepts like these
分解成一个个小块
break them up into bite-sized bits
每个小块都通过清晰的思维来理顺
present clear thinking in each part
最后形成一个有趣的结论
and then build back up to an interesting conclusion
如果你访问brilliant.org/nutshell
if you visit brilliant org slash nutshell
或者点击介绍中的链接
or click the link in the description
你就可以免费注册
you can sign up for free
并能在里面学到各种东西了
and learn all kinds of things
Kurzgesagt的观众们还有个福利
and as a bonus for Kurzgesagt viewers
就是前688个注册的人将获得20%的优惠
the first 688 people will also get 20 % of their
以及会员资格
and your membership
如果真的在地球上发现了其他生命
and if you do find life on our planet
先放任不理或许是个明智的选择
it may be wise to leave them alone for a while

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视频概述

发现外星人为什么会是可怕的

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjtOGPJ0URM

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