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航空公司为什么要超卖机票 – 译学馆
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航空公司为什么要超卖机票

Why Airlines Sell More Seats Than They Have

联合航空3411次航班计划于4月9日星期天下午5:40离开芝加哥奥黑尔国际机场
United’s flight 3411 was scheduled to leave Chicago O’hare airport at 5:40 pm on Sunday,
前往肯塔基州的路易斯维尔 但在经历了强行拖拽一位乘客离开飞机
April 9th to Louisville, Kentucky, but after dragging a passenger off the flight and a
并且飞机延误2小时之后 这一事件成为航空历史上最大的一次公关危机
two hour delay, it turned into one of the biggest PR disasters an airline has ever seen.
当然 诱发这个新闻事件的原因 是因为航空公司多卖了
Of course, the impetus of this entire news story is that airlines sell more seats than
超出他们所能提供数量的飞机票――这是更好的一笔生意
they have—its just better business.
任何航班都会有一些乘客不会来乘机 这称作
With any flight, a certain number of people won’t show up—that’s called the no-show
弃乘率
rate.
航班空置座位飞行对于航空公司来说是一种损失 即使
Flying with an empty seat is a lost opportunity for an airline to make money—even if someone
该座位的机票确实售出了 因此很多航空公司引入了复杂的
did buy a ticket for that seat—so many airlines have instilled complicated systems to predict
预测乘客弃乘率的系统
how many people will miss their flight.
弃乘率受路线与日期的影响而差异巨大
That no-show rate varies hugely by route and date.
在美联航的系统中 芝加哥――3411航班的起点 有很高的弃程率
In United’s network, Chicago, where flight 3411 left from, likely has a high no-show
由于这里是交通换乘枢纽
rate since it is their hub.
大量的乘客乘坐其他航班抵达芝加哥换乘
A large percentage of the passengers taking a flight from Chicago connect from another
由于四分之一的美国本土航班晚点 许多乘客错过了换乘
flight and, since 1/4 of US domestic flights arrive late, many people miss connections.
此外 芝加哥有许多竞争的航空公司以及多样的交通形式
In addition, there are a ton of competing airlines and modes of transportation from
对于乘客来说 晚几小时或晚几天离开
Chicago so it’s not a huge deal for passengers to change their plans to leave a few hours
这并不是什么大不了的事儿
or days later.
一架从缅因州 班格尔 一个小型农村机场出发 遣往华盛顿的航班
On a flight from, say, Bangor, Maine, a small rural airport, to Washington DC, passengers
乘客一般不会错过或者决定不乘坐他们的航班
are much less likely to miss or decide not to show up for their flight.
没有乘客会在班格尔换乘遣往华盛顿的航班
No passengers are connecting through Bangor onto this flight to DC and there are also
乘客也几乎没有其他交通选择
very few alternatives.
每天只有10~15架次航班 并且没有火车
With only 10-15 flights a day and no train service, missing a flight out of Bangor is
在班格尔错过一次航班比在芝加哥错过一次航班严重多了
much more inconvenient than one out of Chicago.
周日晚上的航班 例如3411 弃乘率也很低
Flights on Sunday nights, like flight 3411, are also likely to have a lower no-show rate
因为乘客急于在周一回去上班
since travellers are wary to get back to work on Monday.
弃乘率并没有一个很准确的公开数据
There’s no good public data on how many passengers miss their flights—it’s a closely
这是一个秘密 但是航空公司会用此数据建立模型去预测
guarded secret—but this data is used by airlines to build models that predict how
他们可以有安全地多卖出多少张机票
many seats they can safely oversell.
好消息是 这些数据模型越来越完善
The good news is that these models are getting better.
1990年 美国航空公司 每10000名乘客就有16人被拒载
In 1990 US airlines denied boarding to about 16 out of every 10,000 passengers while today
而现在下降到每10000名乘客只有9名被拒载
its down to 9 out of every 10,000 passengers.
越来越准确的数据与越来越聪明的系统让数据模型得到不断的提升
With better and better data and smarter and smarter programs, these models are constantly
使得航空公司能更安全地卖出这些根本不存在的机位
improving to let airlines sell these nonexistent seats more safely.
最终 航空公司每年向近50万被挤出航班的乘客支付赔偿
In the end, what airlines pay to compensate those half a million yearly passengers who
这些赔偿远少于乘客超额订票所支付的数以百万计的美金
are bumped from their flights is far less than the hundreds of millions of dollars they
当然 直到这一切变成了世界范围的公关危机
can make overbooking—until of course, it turns into a worldwide PR disaster.
你如何确定你的乘机名额不会被挤掉呢?
So how can you be sure that you won’t be bumped?
当航空公司不得不随机选择拒载的乘客
When airlines do have to involuntarily select individuals to offload, they’ll often use
他们常用一套有等级体系的系统――选择那些对航班具有最少优点
a hierarchical system—choosing the individuals that supposedly have the least merit to be
或者名义上对于航空公司最不具价值的乘客
on the flight or least value to the airline on paper.
通常 电脑会选择那些最晚值机以及少有
Normally a computer will pick those who checked in last and have no or low frequent flier
飞行状态记录的乘客
status.
因此 如果你比较早地值机 即使是在网上 选取座位 并拿到你的登机牌
So, if you check in early, even online, select a seat, and get your boarding pass, you’re
你将更可能搭乘你所购买的航班
much more likely to fly on your flight.
此外 拥有一个常旅客户账户 就算你并不怎么使用它
In addition, having a frequent flier account, even if you don’t use it much, will improve
也将提高你的乘机成功率
your odds over the majority of people who don’t have one at all.
你也可以乘坐超额订票相对较少的航空公司的班机:捷蓝航空在2013年只从
You can also fly airlines that overbook less: JetBlue had to involuntarily deny boarding
两千一百万名乘客中随机拒载了18名乘客
to only 18 out of its 21 million passengers in 2013.
由于捷蓝售出的大多是不需换乘的机票
Since they sell mostly inflexible tickets with fewer connections, passengers are much
乘客来乘坐航班的机率很大 因此捷蓝有一项综合保险政策
more likely to show up for their flight so JetBlue has a blanket policy not to overbook
确保不超额预订机票
flights.
但是 你需要记住的是 航空公司
What you have to remember with airlines, however, is that they’re constantly trying to find
会不断为了使每个座位赚得更多钱而降低票价
ways to make more money per seat so that they can reduce ticket prices.
这并不是说航空公司变成了慈善组织 他们只是意识到
That’s not to say they’re altruistic organizations, they just recognize that the number one determinant
有多少顾客决定是否乘坐他们的航班的 就可以赚取多少票价
to whether someone will fly their airline is that one number—the ticket price—so
因此他们几乎用尽方法去减价 只为了获取竞争优势
they’ll take almost any opportunity to reduce it in order to gain a competitive advantage.
大多数乘客只想要更便宜的机票而不是更好的乘机体验 这被一次又一次证实
Time and time again it’s been proven that the majority of consumers want cheaper flights
这是为什么廉价航空公司猛降票价
more than they want a better travel experience—that’s why budget airlines are making such a disruption—so
这整个分类定价的风潮 每个物品的价格 甚至超额售票
this whole trend of unbundled airfares, fees for everything, and even overbooking is all
都是对顾客想要廉价航班这一诉求所做出的回应
in response to what the consumer as one entity wants—cheap flights.
希望您喜欢这部由Wendover出品的短视频
I hope you enjoyed this short and extra Wendover Productions video.
若是您想赞助此频道 可以登录到网址patreon.com/WendoverProductions
If you’d like to support the channel, you can do so over at patreon.com/WendoverProductions.
您也可以通过订阅来关注
I’d also encourage you to subscribe to catch all my future videos right when they come
我以及后续更新的视频 推特地址为Twitter@WendoverPro
out and follow me on Twitter @WendoverPro to get updates along the way.
最后 若您喜欢这部视频 您可能也会喜欢航空经济上面的视频
Lastly, if you enjoyed this video you’d probably enjoy the one on the Economics of
您可以在这里找到它
Airlines Class which you can find here.
感谢观看
Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you in two weeks for the next full-length Wendover
我们两周后再见
Productions video.

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航空公司 为何要超额售卖机票 答案在这里

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqWksuyry5w

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