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2600年会发生什么? – 译学馆
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2600年会发生什么?

What Would Happen in 2600 ?

最近76岁的
Recently, at the age of 76,
英国著名理论物理学家
the famous English theoretical physicist,
史蒂芬·霍金去世
Stephen Hawking, passed away.
在他年轻的时候
In his youth,
他患上了肌肉萎缩症
he fell ill with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis or ALS,
这个病也叫做卢伽雷氏症
also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease.
他瘫痪了 并在轮椅上度过了50多年的时光
He was paralyzed and spent more than 50 years in a wheelchair.
慢慢的 他的身体状况开始恶化
Over time the disease progressed and until recently,
在他去世之前
just before his death,
病状已经发展到只有一块面部肌肉还能动了
he had finally just one last facial muscle still functioning.
1985年 他因患肺炎做了手术
In 1985, due to a severe complication after coming down with a flu,
并因此失去了说话的能力
Stephen Hawking lost the ability to speak.
幸运的是一台具有语言功能的机器安装到轮椅上
A sensicon speech synthesizer was attach to his wheelchair,
这项技术使得霍金具有了通过控制电脑与他人交流的能力
and with the help of this device,
这位令人尊敬的学者能够通过控制计算机来与人交流
the esteemed researcher was able to control a computer to communicate with others.
尽管霍金被人类已知的最严重的病症折磨着
Despite suffering from one of the most serious and debilitating illnesses known to man,
他始终没有放弃 坚持与病魔抗争
Steven Hawking still managed to become
最终成为了我们这个时代的最优秀的科学家之一
one of the most outstanding scientists of our time.
他提出了大爆炸理论
He confirmed the theory of the emergence of our universe as a result to the big bang
并且在寻找黑洞的研究中做出了突出贡献
and was deeply engaged in research of black holes.
这位神奇伟大的科学家同样关注着
This amazing and eminent scientist is also considered
其他较为流行的科学命题
an unsurpassed popularizer science.
在他的著作《时间简史》
In his books, “A Brief History of Time”,
和《果壳中的宇宙》中
“Black Holes and Baby Universes” and “The Universe in a Nutshell”,
他描绘了一幅美丽的时光画卷
he drew a fascinating picture of our universe,
沉浸在宇宙大爆炸带来的
enveloped in a ghostly smoke of nebula
如影子般的音乐和五彩火花之中
and colorful fireworks from collisions of galaxies.
他说到宇宙和恒星间距离的无限
He spoke about the boundlessness of space, the proximity of stars
宏观世界的理想秩序
the ideal order of the macrocosm
和神秘的元素微粒无序性
and the mysterious chaos of elementary particles.
他的书是如此有意思
His books are so interesting
被各种人群广泛阅读
that they are read by people from all walks of life,
不论是物理学家 亦或是家庭主妇
from physicists to housewives.
斯蒂芬·霍金行在大学教书 奔走于教室之间
Stephen Hawking traveled extensively taught university classes,
参与维护和平的运动
participated in movements for peace
并且反对全球变暖
and against global warming.
他甚至登上专门的航空器去到近地轨道
He even climbed to near-earth orbit aboard a special aircraft,
最终感受到了长久以来渴望的强大力量
finally enjoying a long cherished desire to get a taste of weaklessness.
令人惊讶的是 斯蒂芬·霍金拥有同样复杂的个人生活
Stephen Hawking also surprisingly had a fairly involved personal life.
他经历过两次婚姻 是三个孩子的父亲
He was married twice and was the father of three children.
对我们来说 这位科学家是钢铁的意志
For us, the scientist is an example of iron will
对知识不知疲倦的渴求和乐观主义的代表
and inexhaustible thirst for knowledge and optimism.
可是
However,
也正是他预言了会有可怕的大灾难降临地球
it was he who foretold that terrible apocalypse will befall the earth.
他认为 乐观估计
He believes that under favorable scenario,
大灾难将在大约2600年来临
this disaster would come about around the year 2600.
若是情况不那么乐观 则在百年内来临
And in the less rosy scenario in 100 years,
有很多原因会导致世界终结
the end of the world could come for a variety of reasons.
我将告诉你的东西是顶级机密
What am I about to tell you is the extremely top secret.
这些经过分类的信息是经过长时间的紧张搜寻才得到的
This classified information has long been highly sought after
我要提醒你 一定要注意此刻你的网络安全
and I advise you to take a special care of your online security at this moment.
好吧 我逗你玩呢
Ok, I’m joking.
不过也不完全是玩笑
But not really.
网络安全是很重要的事
Internet security is a really important matter,
拿我自己来说上网时我很注重自己的隐私和信息安全
me, for example, I take great care of my privacy and security when I go online.
而且很多时候
And for quite some time,
我都会建议我的朋友们使用VPN
I have been advising all my friends to use of VPN–a Virtual Private Network,
它能够使你安全使用网上的任何数据
which allows you to securely access any data on the Internet,
安全地路过一个公共网站
remotely through a public network.
防火墙与之相似 能够保护你电脑上的数据
It’s similar to a firewall that protects the data on your computer.
这就要提到如今主要使用的NordVPN
And this brings us to today’s sponsor NordVPN.
它在61个国家都有成千上万的超快服务器
They have thousands of super fast services in 61countries.
而且它绝对不记录数据
And there is absolutely no data logging
这意味着它不会将你的信息贩卖给市场
which means they are not selling your information to marketers.
NordVPN甚至还有一个chrome浏览器
NordVPN even has a Chrome browser,
初次使用便能感受到它轻巧并且使用感好
that’s light-weight and user-friendly from a first click.
它轻而易举地在数秒内保护了我的网上浏览
It secures my browsing in seconds, it’s easy as pie.
我最近开始使用它的应用软件这真是太棒了
I recently start using their application and it’s absolutely amazing.
完全地良好使用感及网上浏览保护
It’s totally user-friendly, protecting all my browsing
不论是在网络怎样边边角角的地方
no matter what dark corners of the Internet I might find myself in.
在短短几秒内
In just seconds.
它同时支持安卓和iOS
They support both Android and IOS,
而且你最多可以用它以军事级别加密等级来
and you can protect up to six devices at the same time
同时保护六个设备
at a military grade encryption level.
并且没有任何风险
And there is a totally risk free,
它有三十天退款保证
30-day money back guarantee.
你绝对不能错过
You can’t lose.
最棒的是
Best of all,
如果你马上登录“NordVPN.com/Riddle”
if you go to NordVPN.com/Riddle
并且用“riddle”密码
right now and use the code “riddle”,
你就能从今天开始你的电脑保护之旅
you will start protecting your Internet experience today.
买三年的话可以打23折
You will get a 77% discount on their 3-year plan.
人类首先要面临的是人口过剩
The first of these is overpopulation.
在过去的200年里 地球人口急剧地增长
In the past 200 years, the population on Earth has grown extraordinarily rapidly.
如果继续按此势头发展 在2600年前
If this trend continues, by 2600,
人们将只能够
people be able to live on our planet
肩并肩挤在地球上生存
only by standing shoulder to shoulder.
而且由于人们的需要 将会消耗巨大的能源
And for their needs, they would need to consume a huge amount of resources.
这将导致全球变暖
This would lead to global warming,
向大气中释放有毒气体
release of toxic gases into the atmosphere
并且冰山融化淹没陆地
and the submergence of the land due to the melting of glaciers.
这一切都将最终使得地球变为另一个金星
Such processes would eventually turn the Earth into a kind of Venus
整日浸泡在460℃的高温之中
where the temperature reaches 460℃.
海水将会沸腾
The oceans will begin to boil.
酸雨从天而降淹没大地
And acid rains would flow from the sky.
这样的情况下 地球会终结在一场巨大的原子灾难中
In addition, the earth could be finished off from a large scale atom war.
有朝一日 核能会成为与人作对的炸弹
A nuclear power might someday drop some bombs on the opponent.
然后引发一系列报复性的后果
This would quickly be followed by retaliatory strike.
不到我们的星球变成宇宙尘埃 爆炸便不止息
The explosions would continue until they turn our planet into dust and ruins.
根据霍金所说
According to Hawking,
山洞人为了获取食物相斗
cavemen warred each other to obtain food
为了宗族的延续争抢领土
and to win territory for the continuation of the tribe.
今天 战争已无意义
Today, wars are meaningless,
但是大灾难的破坏性与战争无异
but their potential power is akin to that of the apocalypse.
即使人类能以某种方式和平生活在一起
If people can somehow find a way to live together peacefully,
他们仍会被另一个看不见的敌人攻击
they could still be attacked by another invisible enemy.
或偶然或必然 这个敌人被科学家们发明出来
This enemy could be accidentally or intentionally created by scientists.
在霍金看来
In the opinion of Hawking,
科学家们十分本能地在无意中扮演着上帝的角色
they often mindlessly play god with the very nature of life itself,
大张旗鼓地执行着基因实验
intensively conducting genetic experiments.
在科学家的试管中
Sooner or later in their test tubes,
迟早会诞生一种改良版的超级病毒
a modified super virus will be born
而且它们几乎不可抵挡
and it will be well nigh impossible to stop.
最终 灭亡会毫不偏差地降临
And finally death could literally fall from the heavens,
一颗巨大的小行星可能撞毁地球
a huge asteroid could fall to the Earth and destroy the planet.
据NASA 在未来200年中
According to NASA, in the next 200 years,
地球经过的路途中会有约20颗小行星
the Earth will cross paths with about 20 asteroids,
其中最大的直径有1200千米
the largest of which is 1200km in diameter.
但也许这次天才科学家霍金错了呢
But perhaps the genius scientist Hawking is mistaken?
“幸运的是 霍金关于世界末日的观点不符合事实”
Fortunately, Hawking’s statements about the end of world do not correspond to reality.
著名物理学家 宇航员 慕尼黑大学教授
So says the famous physicist, astronaut
乌利齐·沃特 如是说
and professor at University of Munich, Ulrich Walter.
由于过去100年中的气候变化
Climate change over the past 100 years has raised
全球平均气温提升了1℃
the global temperatures by about 1℃ on average.
根据最坏预测
If according to the most pessimistic forecasts,
未来百年气温会升高1.5℃
it will grow by another 1.5℃ over the next 100 years.
世界只是变暖了
The world would simply become warmer.
比方说
For example,
慕尼黑中心地区气温比乡村高了3℃
the temperature in the centre of Munich is 3℃ higher than in the countryside.
但是 没有大灾难发生
And… nothing, no cataclysms occur.
在他的一本书 《黑洞混乱》中
In his book “The Turmoil in the Black Hole”,
乌利齐反对了行星撞地球的观点
Ulrich Walter rejects the idea of a threat from asteroids.
这些行星向地球方向冲撞发生的频率
Large celestial bodies crash into the Earth with a frequency of
在每千万到一亿年一次
once in 10 to 100 million years.
所以行星撞地球的几率可以忽略
So the probability of a strike is negligible.
同样 基因改良的病毒也不像我们有时想象得那么恐怖
Also, not as scary as we sometimes imagine are genetically modified viruses.
我们也学习了对付流感的办法
We’ve learned the cope with pandemics such as SARS
比如非典 以及近期的禽流感和猪流感
and the recent Avian and swine flus.
而且在现代纳米技术和基因重组对
And with the help of modern nanotechnology
对抗疾病的帮助下
and reprogramming of human cells to fight diseases,
我们大概马上就能把致命的病菌变成无害的小东西
we will likely soon be able to turn deadly germs into harmless little babies.
但是乌利齐的预测也许过于乐观了一点点
But perhaps Ulrich Walter’s forecasts are a little too optimistic.
很多科学家将全球变暖视作是致命的
Many scientists consider global warming to be something that will be fatal to our planet.
而且他们也不否定行星撞地球的可能性
And they don’t deny the possibility of an asteroid strike.
上一次天体撞地球
The last time a large heavenly body crashed to the earth
发生在大约6600万年前
some 66 million years ago.
而且这次撞击彻底抹去了恐龙的存在
By the way, it completely wiped out the dinosaurs.
所以在如此长时间的平静后
So after such a long break,
我们几乎不能否认这个不速之客到来的可能
we can hardly disavow the possibility of one more uninvited guest.
这次 只有那些被注定了命运的恐龙处境
Only in the place of the doomed dinosaurs, this time,
最像面对地球被撞危机的人类
it will most likely be the human race which parishes in the face of the Earth.
但是威胁着人类的事不止这些
But these are not all the woes that threaten humanity.
据斯蒂芬·霍金所说 人类可能
According to Stephen Hawking, our civilization could
毁于人工智能
be destroyed by artificial intelligence.
待科学家齐心协力创造出一个电子大脑时
After scientists cobbled together an electronic mind,
它不会在一个愚钝玩具的阶段停留太久
it won’t remain a dumb toy in their hands for long.
这个完美的设备会开始发展并进化得越来越快
This perfect device could start to develop and evolve faster and faster.
而我们人类则会被缓慢的进化限制
And we humans limited by our slow evolution
从而不得不服从那些超级大脑
will have to obey the super mind.
这种情况下 人工智能可能有很大危害
In such a situation, artificial intelligence could do quite a lot of harm,
甚至很可能变成人间炼狱
and not at all by trying to be evil.
人们创造他仅仅是为了使其拥有完美的解决问题的能力
It’s simply designed to perfectly perform its tasks while disregarding all other matters
而全然不考虑其他任何事那些 我们自己常做的事
as we often do ourselves.
比如 若地球上某地开闸放水想要水力发电
For example, if an area of the Earth needs to be flooded to generate hydroelectric energy,
但在这水淹没人类的道路之前无人会为之忧心或加以制止
nobody stops and worries about it until caught in the way.
人工智能之于人类大概和人类之于蚂蚁一般
Humanity, for an artificial intelligence, might become about as important as ants are to us.
皆是巨大的致命的威胁
So with such a large number of grave threats
所以人类的结局是彻彻底底的不可改变了?
is the complete and utter end of humanity inevitable?
斯蒂芬·霍金相信有办法 那就是
Stephen Hawking believes there is a way out, and that would be
移民到其他星球
migration to other planets.
移民的话 月球和火星比较合适
For colonization, the Moon and Mars are quite suitable,
火星有着相当好的土壤和大气
the latter of which has been decent soil and atmosphere.
长期来看我们可以把世界的地球外拓展作为目标
In the long run, we can aim for world’s further afield.
霍金认为那个合适的星球也许在阿尔法半人马座附近的轨道上
Hawking believes that a suitable planet might be in orbit around Alpha Centauri,
阿尔法半人马座是离太阳系最近的星系
the closest star to our solar system.
他还加入了一个项目 发射微型探测器
He even took part in a program to launch in miniature probe
通过这次特殊的航行 去到了——准确的说 是邻近的星系
with the special sail into this nearby, relatively speaking, star system.
诚然 并非所有人都同意霍金的观点
True, not everyone agrees with this.
乌利齐·沃特相信未来百年
Ulrich Walter is confident that in the next 100 years,
人类的科技发展不会达到
technological development will not reach a point,
能使人移民月球和火星的程度
such as to allow us to populate the Moon and Mars,
更不要说移民去一个系外星球了
let alone get to the nearest exoplanet.
所以如今收拾包裹准备星际旅行还太早了
So it’s a bit too early to pack suitcases for interstellar holidays.
但是霍金不这么认为
But Mr. Hawking thought differently.
在他的一个讲座中
In one of his lectures,
他说去特定的地方
he stated advanced spacecraft
不需要先进的航行器
would not be needed to journey to distinct world.
因为去到其他星系的通道也许就存在于特定的巨型黑洞旋涡中
Tunnels to other universes may exist in certain types of large rotating black holes.
是的 这将会是一张单程票
True, this would be a one way ticket.
一旦通过了这条隧道 人们就不能回来了
Having passed through such a tunnel, one would never be able to return.
好 我们继续说
Well, we on the subject.
值得注意的是 霍金最卓越的成就
It should be noted that Hawking’s most outstanding scientific achievement
正是关于黑洞
also concerns black holes.
你可能知道 由于黑洞贼大贼大的引力
As you probably know, as a result of a black hole’s super powerful gravity,
一切事物包括光一旦被黑洞捕获皆无法逃脱
all matter and even light itself can not escape its pull once caught.
但是霍金发现了神奇的事
But Hawking discovered something amazing
由于边界的量子力量
that black holes can and will gradually evaporate
黑洞会逐渐“蒸发”
due to quantum effects at their boundaries, the event horizon.
这样 它们就会以射线的形式释放能量
In this case, they emit energy in a form of radiation.
专家们相信霍金这些令人震惊的成就
Experts believe that Hawking’s astounding achievements
能够大大地帮助科学家们理解宇宙
will help scientists long into the future in their understanding of the universe.
但是 我们必须牢记
However, we must remember
目前 通过黑洞穿越到其他星系
travel through black holes to other universes so far remains
还只是这个著名科学家的想象
only a supposition of the famed scientist.
今天 我们当然还不能说
Today, it certainly cannot be said
人类将能用黑洞来逃离那些大灾难
that mankind will be able to use black holes to escape from some apocalypse.
但是也许这个通往遥远异世界的紧急通道
But perhaps this farrowed idea of
这种想法并不是必然会发生的呢?
emergency relocation to distant worlds is not necessary?
斯蒂芬·霍金的意思不是把征服地外空间
Stephen Hawking didn’t consider the conquest of outer space,
作为唯一的逃离大灾难的护身符
our only salvation from an earthly apocalypse.
其实他的著作和公开演讲中
In his works and public appearances,
有很多话是关于如何在可预见的未来中保持我们的星球
many formulae are to be found regarding how to keep our planet rich,
资源充沛 健康发展 长盛不衰
healthy and blooming for the foreseeable future.
据霍金所说 首先该做的事是控制人口出生
According to his plan, the first thing to do would be to limit birth
这可以减少能源消耗
This would reduce the consumption of resources
和使用能源而产生向环境排放的有害物质
and the consequent release of harmful emissions into the environment.
我们还要更努力地开发新能量
We should also throw all our efforts into creating energy saving technologies
和发展清洁能源
and developing clean energy sources.
霍金甚至建议将黑洞当做一种能源
Hawking even suggested using black holes as one such source.
如果我们创造了一个小的黑洞比如像一座山那样大小
If we create a small black hole, say the size of mountain,
在它消散的过程中会产生X射线和γ射线
during evaporation it would produce X ray and gamma radiation
总共大约十万亿瓦的能量
with a total capacity of about 10 million megawatts.
这些能量来供应地球所需绰绰有余了
This energy is more than enough to power the entire Earth.
未来我们很可能要学着制造这么一个黑洞
In the future, we will most likely learn to create such black holes
而这主要得益于弦理论的进步
primarily thanks to progress in string theory.
不过小型黑洞也可以改变地球的中心
True, small black holes could migrate the center of the Earth
并导致全球灾难
and cause a global catastrophe.
为了阻止这样的事 霍金提议将这能量工厂建在地球之外
To prevent this, Hawking proposed keeping such power plants off planet.
比如 建在近地轨道上
For example, in near earth orbit.
而且据霍金所说 我们可以消除人工智能潜在威胁和不服从可能性
And according to Hawking, we could solve the problem of the potential rebellion of artificial intelligence.
很简单 只要我们不研发出一些
For this, it is simply necessary to not develop such a beast that is driven
以利己欲望为驱动的野兽即可
only by a thirst for a selfish enrichment.
在科研的严酷考验中
In the crucible of scientific research,
只有那些对人类需求负责的智能思想才能被允许诞生
only an electronic mind responsible to the needs of humanity should be cooked up,
这样它们就可以被彻底控制
one which can be fully controlled.
为了与大灾难的威胁作斗争 霍金认为
To combat the threat of cataclysms, Hawking believed it would be necessary to
创立一些世界政府是必要的
create some form of world government.
但是他也没有忽视这个政府
However, he did not discount the possibility that such a government
最终可能变成罪魁祸首的可能性
could eventually become tyranical.
所以守护地球是一条崎岖的道路
So it’s a bumpy road, the path to save the Earth.
但是只要我们真的想
But if we really want,
我们便能够做到
we will succeed.
毕竟我们天生被赋予了
As the possibilities inherent in us,
无限潜能
humanity are almost limitless.
这一事实也被霍金的传奇人生证实过了
This reality is confirmed in the amazing life of Stephen Hawking.

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译制信息
视频概述

霍金说会有世界末日?广告到4:02结束

听录译者

ABC

翻译译者

W①D

审核员

审核员YX

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81UQ0nktzic

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