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人类100年后会变成什么样子? – 译学馆
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人类100年后会变成什么样子?

What will humans look like in 100 years? | Juan Enriquez

[启点字幕组]
Light up the world
眼下有个重要的问题
Here’s a question that matters.
改造人体符合伦理吗
[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]
因为我们为此已经做好了准备
Because we’re beginning to get all the tools together to evolve ourselves.
况且 我们可以使细菌进化 使植物进化
And we can evolve bacteria and we can evolve plants
也可以使动物进化
and we can evolve animals,
所以 现在到了必须直面这个问题的时候了
and we’re now reaching a point where we really have to ask,
这样做真的道德吗 我们真的想改造自身吗
is it really ethical and do we want to evolve human beings?
在大家思考这一问题的时候
And as you’re thinking about that,
我以假肢为例来说明一下
let me talk about that in the context of prosthetics,
它的过去 现在和未来
prosthetics past, present, future.
这是一只铁臂
So this is the iron hand
它属于一位德国伯爵
that belonged to one of the German counts.
(这位伯爵)骁勇善战 在某次战役中失去了手臂
Loved to fight, lost his arm in one of these battles.
没什么大不了的 他制作了一套盔甲
No problem, he just made a suit of armor,
穿上它
put it on,
一副完美的假肢
perfect prosthetic.
这就是 铁腕统治 一词的由来
That’s where the concept of ruling with an iron fist comes from.
当然了 这些假肢变得越来越实用
And of course these prosthetics have been getting more and more useful,
越来越与时俱进
more and more modern.
(甚至于)你可以用它捏起水煮蛋
You can hold soft-boiled eggs.
可以做出各种动作 当大家都在考虑这事儿的时候
You can have all types of controls, and as you’re thinking about that,
像修米・赫尔这样伟大的人
there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr
已经做出了超凡的假肢
who have been building absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.
这样 伟大的艾米·穆林斯就可以走出家门并且说
So the wonderful Aimee Mullins will go out and say,
今天晚上我想多高呢
how tall do I want to be tonight?
或许会说 我想攀登哪种峭壁呢
Or he will say what type of cliff do I want to climb?
有人想跑一场马拉松 或是跳跳交际舞吗
Or does somebody want to run a marathon, or does somebody want to ballroom dance?
有趣的是 当你对此习以为常时
And as you adapt these things,
假肢已经被植入体内了
the interesting thing about prosthetics is they’ve been coming inside the body.
这些外部的假肢如今已用作人造膝盖
So these external prosthetics have now become artificial knees.
人造髋关节
They’ve become artificial hips.
之后 假肢的发展
And then they’ve evolved further
不光是锦上添花
to become not just nice to have
简直是不可或缺
but essential to have.
所以 当你把心脏起搏器当做假肢来讲时
So when you’re talking about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,
你所谈论的不仅仅是 “我失去了一条腿”
you’re talking about something that isn’t just, “I’m missing my leg,”
更是 “如果没有它 我就死了”
it’s, “if I don’t have this, I can die.”
就这点来说 假肢与人体已经成了
And at that point, a prosthetic becomes a symbiotic relationship
休戚与共的关系
with the human body.
我见过四个绝顶聪明的人——
And four of the smartest people that I’ve ever met —
艾德·鲍登 修米・赫尔 乔・雅各布森和鲍勃・兰登——
Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr, Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander —
他们都在一家极致仿生中心工作
are working on a Center for Extreme Bionics.
此刻你们看到的有意思的是
And the interesting thing of what you’re seeing here is
这些假肢 已经和骨头融为一体
these prosthetics now get integrated into the bone.
它们融入皮肤中
They get integrated into the skin.
融进肌肉里
They get integrated into the muscle.
另一方面艾德
And one of the other sides of Ed
正在思考如何用
is he’s been thinking about how to connect the brain
光线或其他机制让大脑
using light or other mechanisms
与假肢或类似的东西直接相连
directly to things like these prosthetics.
如果成功的话
And if you can do that,
你就可以改变对人类的基本认知了
then you can begin changing fundamental aspects of humanity.
你对于某物的反应速度取决于神经的直径
So how quickly you react to something depends on the diameter of a nerve.
当然 如果你的神经来自外部或是植入式假体
And of course, if you have nerves that are external or prosthetic,
例如轻质或是液态金属材料等
say with light or liquid metal,
就可以增大神经的直径
then you can increase that diameter
理论上讲 你甚至可以把(神经直径)增大到
and you could even increase it theoretically to the point where,
一看到枪口的火焰 就能躲开子弹(的程度)
as long as you could see the muzzle flash, you could step out of the way of a bullet.
那些就是我们正在谈论的 变化的量级
Those are the order of magnitude of changes you’re talking about.
这是假肢的第四层次
This is a fourth sort of level of prosthetics.
这些是峰力助听器
These are Phonak hearing aids,
这些东西之所以有趣
and the reason why these are so interesting
是因为它们已经超出了 假肢是
is because they cross the threshold from where prosthetics are something
“残障人士”专用 这么一个范畴
for somebody who is “disabled”
它们甚至成了“正常人”
and they become something that somebody who is “normal”
也想拥有的东西
might want to actually have,
因为这种助听器真正有趣之处
because what this prosthetic does, which is really interesting,
不仅在于辅助听力
is not only does it help you hear,
还能使你专注于自己想听的内容
you can focus your hearing,
它能收听到远处正在进行的交谈
so it can hear the conversation going on over there.
你拥有了顺风耳
You can have superhearing.
就能耳听八方 就能听见白噪音
You can have hearing in 360 degrees. You can have white noise.
还可以录音 噢 对了 它们也具备手机的功能
You can record, and oh, by the way, they also put a phone into this.
所以它不仅是助听器也是你的手机
So this functions as your hearing aid and also as your phone.
就这点来说 有些人可能真的会自愿去安装假体
And at that point, somebody might actually want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.
所有这些有着千丝万缕联系的碎片
All of these thousands of loosely connected little pieces
汇集一处
are coming together,
(所以)是时候来问一声
and it’s about time we ask the question,
在接下来的一两百年 我们想怎样改造人类自身呢
how do we want to evolve human beings over the next century or two?
为了得到答案 我们向一位伟大的哲学家询问
And for that we turn to a great philosopher
他是个聪明的人 尽管是洋基队的粉丝
who was a very smart man despite being a Yankee fan.
当然 就像约吉·贝拉说过的那样 预测很难
And Yogi Berra used to say, of course, that it’s very tough to make predictions,
尤其是对未来的预测
especially about the future.
所以对未来 我们暂时先不作预测
So instead of making a prediction about the future to begin with,
我们来谈谈当下 比如托尼・阿塔拉这样的人
let’s take what’s happening in the present with people like Tony Atala,
他身上有着30多个再造器官
who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.
也许终极假肢不再需要“钛”这种“身外之物”
And maybe the ultimate prosthetic isn’t having something external, titanium.
而是使用你自身的基因密码
maybe the ultimate prosthetic is take your own gene code,
重新够成身体的组成部分
remake your own body parts,
因为那会比任何一种假肢的效果都好
because that’s a whole lot more effective than any kind of a prosthetic.
但当你这么想的时候 你可以看看克雷格·文特尔和翰姆·史密斯的工作
But while you’re at it, then you can take the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.
我们一直在做的事情
And one of the things that we’ve been doing
就是想弄清楚如何重组细胞
is trying to figure out how to reprogram cells.
而一旦重组成功
And if you can reprogram a cell,
就可以改造器官中的细胞
then you can change the cells in those organs.
如果能改造器官中的细胞
So if you can change the cells in those organs,
或许就能改变细胞的抗辐射性
maybe you make those organs more radiation-resistant.
也许能让它们吸收更多的氧气
Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.
让它们更加高效的
Maybe you make them more efficient
过滤人体不需要的废物
to filter out stuff that you don’t want in your body.
在过去的几周里 乔治·丘奇备受媒体关注
And over the last few weeks, George Church has been in the news a lot
因为他一直都在谈论一种可编码细胞
because he’s been talking about taking one of these programmable cells
以及(如何)将整个人类基因组
and inserting an entire human genome
植入那个(可编码)细胞
into that cell.
一旦能够将整个人类的基因组植入那个细胞中
And once you can insert an entire human genome into a cell,
你就会开始发问
then you begin to ask the question,
你想强化基因中的任一部分吗
would you want to enhance any of that genome?
你想强化自身吗
Do you want to enhance a human body?
为此你会怎么做呢
How would you want to enhance a human body?
合乎伦理之处在哪里
Where is it ethical to enhance a human body
不合乎伦理的地方又在哪里
and where is it not ethical to enhance a human body?
突然之间 我们正在做的
And all of a sudden, what we’re doing
仿佛是步入了一个多维棋盘
is we’ve got this multidimensional chess board
(在这里)我们可以通过病毒来改变自身的基因
where we can change human genetics by using viruses
去攻克艾滋这样的疾病
to attack things like AIDS,
或者也可以通过基因疗法改变基因序列
or we can change the gene code through gene therapy
去对付遗传性疾病
to do away with some hereditary diseases,
抑或改变环境
or we can change the environment,
在表观基因组中改变基因的修饰
and change the expression of those genes in the epigenome
并将它传给下一代
and pass that on to the next generations.
突然之间 这不再是点滴的改变
And all of a sudden, it’s not just one little bit,
而是很多的一点点累积起来
it’s all these stacked little bits
每次拿走一部分
that allow you to take little portions of it
直到所有的部分汇集一处
until all the portions coming together
让你变得完全不同
lead you to something that’s very different.
很多人对此感到害怕
And a lot of people are very scared by this stuff.
这听起来确实很吓人 也存在一定的风险
And it does sound scary, and there are risks to this stuff.
那么你究竟为什么还要这么做呢
So why in the world would you ever want to do this stuff?
为什么还想要
Why would we really want to alter the human body
从根本上改变自身呢
in a fundamental way?
英国皇家天文协会的
The answer lies in part
洛德・里斯
with Lord Rees,
为我们提供了部分答案
astronomer royal of Great Britain.
他最爱挂在嘴边的一句话就是 宇宙是邪恶透顶的
And one of his favorite sayings is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.
这是什么意思呢
So what does that mean?
意思是说 如果你随机取下身体的一部分
It means if you take any one of your bodies at random,
扔在宇宙的任何地方
drop it anywhere in the universe,
扔在太空中 你就死定了
drop it in space, you die.
扔在太阳上 死定了
Drop it on the Sun, you die.
扔在水星表面 死定了
Drop it on the surface of Mercury, you die.
扔在超新星附近 死定了
Drop it near a supernova, you die.
不过万幸 这句话只有80%是对的
But fortunately, it’s only about 80 percent effective.
正如一位伟大的物理学家曾说过的
So as a great physicist once said,
就是这些逆流而上的生物漩涡
there’s these little upstream eddies of biology
创造了熵中洪流飓风的秩序
that create order in this rapid torrent of entropy.
所以随着宇宙能量的不断耗费
So as the universe dissipates energy,
这些逆流而上的(生物)漩涡创造了生物界的秩序
there’s these upstream eddies that create biological order.
现在 关于该漩涡的问题是
Now, the problem with eddies is,
它们正趋于消亡
they tend to disappear.
它们不断转变 在星河中移动
They shift. They move in rivers.
正因如此 当漩涡移动时
And because of that, when an eddy shifts,
当地球变成雪球 变得炙热的时候
when the Earth becomes a snowball, when the Earth becomes very hot,
当地球被小行星击中 遇到超级火山爆发的时候
when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid, when you have supervolcanoes,
当遇到太阳耀斑爆发的时候
when you have solar flares,
当潜在毁灭性事件不期而至的时候
when you have potentially extinction-level events
比如下届选举——
like the next election —
之后突然之间 你就会面对周期性的大灭绝
then all of a sudden, you can have periodic extinctions.
对了 这事儿已经在地球上发生过五次了
And by the way, that’s happened five times on Earth,
因此 有朝一日
and therefore it is very likely
人类灭绝是极有可能发生的
that the human species on Earth is going to go extinct someday.
不是下个星期
Not next week,
不是下个月
not next month,
也许就在11月 但也许是之后的一万年
maybe in November, but maybe 10,000 years after that.
想想那样的后果
As you’re thinking of the consequence of that,
如果你相信(物种)灭绝是普通而又自然
if you believe that extinctions are common and natural
正常而又寻常的现象的话
and normal and occur periodically,
那么使物种多样化就成了道义上的责任
it becomes a moral imperative to diversify our species.
之所以说它是道义上的责任
And it becomes a moral imperative
是因为 如果我们自身不进行本质上的改变的话
because it’s going to be really hard to live on Mars
可能就很难在火星上生存
if we don’t fundamentally modify the human body.
不是吗
Right?
我们来自一个细胞
You go from one cell,
父母结合 形成一个受精卵
mom and dad coming together to make one cell,
成长为数百万亿细胞(组成的个体)
in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.
我们不知道 如果完全改变地心引力
We don’t know, if you change the gravity substantially,
是否你的身体还会再次形成
if the same thing will happen to create your body.
但我们知道 当前 如果我们置身于
We do know that if you expose our bodies as they currently are
高强度的辐射中 我们会死翘翘
to a lot of radiation, we will die.
这样来想话 (就算是)为了到达火星
So as you’re thinking of that, you have to really redesign things
我们的身体也确实需要重新设计一番
just to get to Mars.
更别提天王星或木星了
Forget about the moons of Neptune or Jupiter.
拿尼古拉·卡尔达舍夫的话来说
And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,
我们要以不同的角度来看待生命
let’s think about life in a series of scales.
一级生命文明
So Life One civilization
开始改变自身容貌
is a civilization that begins to alter his or her looks.
这正是我们几千年来一直在做的
And we’ve been doing that for thousands of years.
整出个隆起的腹部 这儿整一下 那儿整一下
You’ve got tummy tucks and you’ve got this and you’ve got that.
你会尝试改变容颜 而且我听说
You alter your looks, and I’m told
并非所有这些改变都出于医疗上的理由
that not all of those alterations take place for medical reasons.
奇怪
Seems odd.
二级生命是一种不同的文明
A Life Two civilization is a different civilization.
它从本质上改变了自身
A Life Two civilization alters fundamental aspects of the body.
注入生长激素 就会长得更高
So you put human growth hormone in, the person grows taller,
或者加入某种物质 人就会胖些或者不再代谢
or you put x in and the person gets fatter or loses metabolism
或是其他一套东西
or does a whole series of things,
但这是在本质上改变这些功能
but you’re altering the functions in a fundamental way.
想要在太空生存
To become an intrasolar civilization,
我们还得创造出三级文明
we’re going to have to create a Life Three civilization,
跟前两个相比 差异很大
and that looks very different from what we’ve got here.
也许和耐辐射球菌结合后
Maybe you splice in Deinococcus radiodurans
细胞就能在辐射之后自我愈合
so that the cells can resplice after a lot of exposure to radiation.
也许呼吸的方式变成氧气直接流入血液
Maybe you breathe by having oxygen flow through your blood
而不是流经肺部
instead of through your lungs.
但所谈这些都是非常激进的重塑
But you’re talking about really radical redesigns,
近十年来有个非常有趣的事情
and one of the interesting things that’s happened in the last decade
就是我们发现了很多未知的行星
is we’ve discovered a whole lot of planets out there.
而其中一些是类地行星
And some of them may be Earth-like.
问题是 如果我们想去那些行星
The problem is, if we ever want to get to these planets,
就算是目前最快的人造飞船——
the fastest human objects —
朱诺号和旅行者号之类——
Juno and Voyager and the rest of this stuff —
都要花上上万年
take tens of thousands of years
才能到达最近的星系
to get from here to the nearest solar system.
如果你想去别处的海滩逛逛
So if you want to start exploring beaches somewhere else,
或者看一下双日日落奇观
or you want to see two-sun sunsets,
那就是另一回事了
then you’re talking about something that is very different,
因为你必须以可能完全不被认可的方式
because you have to change the timescale and the body of humans
来改变时间量程及自身
in ways which may be absolutely unrecognizable.
这是四级生命文明
And that’s a Life Four civilization.
我们甚至都无法想象它会是什么样子
Now, we can’t even begin to imagine what that might look like,
但我们渐渐得以窥见
but we’re beginning to get glimpses
能带我们走那么远的仪器会是什么样子
of instruments that might take us even that far.
我来举两个例子
And let me give you two examples.
这位便是伟大的弗洛伊德·罗姆斯伯格
So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,
他所从事的其中一件工作便是
and one of the things that Floyd’s been doing
关于生命基础化学的
is he’s been playing with the basic chemistry of life.
这个星球上所有的生命皆由ATCG四个字母组成的DNA构成
So all life on this planet is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.
(包括)所有的细菌 植物 动物 人类 奶牛
All bacteria, all plants, all animals, all humans, all cows,
其他所有的生物
everything else.
佛洛依德做的便是更改其中两对碱基
And what Floyd did is he changed out two of those base pairs,
现在(ATCG)变成了ATXY
so it’s ATXY.
这意味着出现了构成生命体的另一套系统
And that means that you now have a parallel system to make life,
生娃 繁殖 进化
to make babies, to reproduce, to evolve,
它不会和地球上的大多数事生物配对
that doesn’t mate with most things on Earth
甚至不和地球上的任何生物配对
or in fact maybe with nothing on Earth.
也许你创造出的植物对所有的细菌都免疫
Maybe you make plants that are immune to all bacteria.
也许它们能抵抗所有的病毒
Maybe you make plants that are immune to all viruses.
但这又有什么有趣的呢
But why is that so interesting?
这意味着我们并非有唯一的答案
It means that we are not a unique solution.
也许你可以为我们创造出
It means you can create alternate chemistries to us
另一种能适应不同星球的
that could be chemistries adaptable to a very different planet
能创造和传承生命的化学生物
that could create life and heredity.
第二个实验
The second experiment,
或是说实验的第二种可能性
or the other implication of this experiment,
是说我们所有的人 所有的生命体 都是基于20种氨基酸所构成
is that all of you, all life is based on 20 amino acids.
如果不替换这两个氨基酸
If you don’t substitute two amino acids,
不变成ATXY 而是变成ATCG+XY
if you don’t say ATXY, if you say ATCG + XY,
那么氨基酸就会从20种变成172种
then you go from 20 building blocks to 172,
转眼间 你就有了172种可能的氨基酸
and all of a sudden you’ve got 172 building blocks of amino acids
可以构建完全不同的生命形态
to build life-forms in very different shapes.
第二个实验正发生在中国
The second experiment to think about is a really weird experiment
一个不可思议的实验
that’s been taking place in China.
这家伙已经给数百只老鼠做过头部移植术
So this guy has been transplanting hundreds of mouse heads.
不是吗
Right?
为什么说这是个不可思议的实验呢
And why is that an interesting experiment?
想想第一例心脏移植手术吧
Well, think of the first heart transplants.
过去他们常做的一件事
One of the things they used to do
就是把捐助者的妻子或女儿卷进来
is they used to bring in the wife or the daughter of the donor
受捐助者可以回答医生(这些问题)
so the donee could tell the doctors,
“你还认得这个人吗 还爱这个人吗
“Do you recognize this person? Do you love this person?
你对这个人还有感觉吗”
Do you feel anything for this person?”
今天的我们会觉得这事儿挺好笑的
We laugh about that today.
之所以好笑是因为我们知道心脏就是块肌肉而已
We laugh because we know the heart is a muscle,
但是对几百年 几千年 甚至上万年前的人来说
but for hundreds of thousands of years, or tens of thousands of years,
“我把心掏给了她 她就这么走了 伤了我的心”
“I gave her my heart. She took my heart. She broke my heart.”
我们过去认为这是一种情感
We thought this was emotion
并且认为情感也随心脏一起被移植了 当然不是
and we thought maybe emotions were transplanted with the heart. Nope.
那么 大脑呢
So how about the brain?
这个实验对应两个可能的结果
Two possible outcomes to this experiment.
如果你能抓住一只老鼠
If you can get a mouse
将会派上用场
that is functional,
然后你就会明白
then you can see,
新的大脑是白板一块吗
is the new brain a blank slate?
还是说具有同样的功能呢
And boy, does that have implications.
第二种可能:
Second option:
换头后的老鼠认得出米老鼠
the new mouse recognizes Minnie Mouse.
它记得自己怕什么
The new mouse remembers what it’s afraid of,
记得如何走出迷宫
remembers how to navigate the maze,
如果这是真的
and if that is true,
(就说明)我们能够移植记忆和意识
then you can transplant memory and consciousness.
真正有趣之处在于
And then the really interesting question is,
若能移植大脑 是否也能移植下面这个
if you can transplant this, is the only input-output mechanism
唯一的输入输出的东西呢
this down here?
或者 我们能否将意识
Or could you transplant that consciousness into something
植入非同寻常的东西
that would be very different,
(使其)可以在太空生存
that would last in space,
可以持续数万年
that would last tens of thousands of years,
那会是完全重新设计的身体
that would be a completely redesigned body
会将意识保留很长很长一段时间吗
that could hold consciousness for a long, long period of time?
我们回到第一个问题:
And let’s come back to the first question:
你为什么一直想做这件事呢
Why would you ever want to do that?
我来告诉你为什么
Well, I’ll tell you why.
因为这是我们的终极自拍
Because this is the ultimate selfie.
这张照片拍摄自六亿英里远
This is taken from six billion miles away,
那里是地球
and that’s Earth.
我们都在那儿
And that’s all of us.
如果稍有差池 人类会随之灭亡
And if that little thing goes, all of humanity goes.
你想改变人类自身的原因
And the reason you want to alter the human body
是因为最终你想要一张照片来说明
is because you eventually want a picture that says,
我们在这儿 在这儿
that’s us, and that’s us,
还有这儿
and that’s us,
这是人类幸免于漫长的灾难的途径
because that’s the way humanity survives long-term extinction.
这就说明
And that’s the reason why it turns out
事实上 不进行自我进化是不道德的
it’s actually unethical not to evolve the human body
即使这样做会引发恐慌 或面临挑战
even though it can be scary, even though it can be challenging,
但这使我们能够探索下去 生存
but it’s what’s going to allow us to explore, live
到达我们今生做梦都无法企及的地方
and get to places we can’t even dream of today,
但有朝一日 我们的重重重孙辈可以做到
but which our great-great-great-great- grandchildren might someday.
谢谢大家
Thank you very much.

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译制信息
视频概述

仿生学的不断发展,使我们人类越来越拥有一些天然所不具备的“特异功能”。那么,一百年后的人们会是什么样子呢?会不会随着外界环境的变化而成为“地球超人”或是“天外飞仙”呢?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

启点—飞雪群山

审核员

与光同尘

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8lH8tNlAXc

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