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郁金香狂热和经济大萧条有什么共同之处 – 译学馆
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郁金香狂热和经济大萧条有什么共同之处

What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in Common

我们是否正处于债券泡沫之中?
Are we in a bond bubble right now?
它是否即将爆炸?
Is it about to pop?
首先 让我们重回二十年前
First, let’s rewind to two decades ago,
艾伦·格林斯潘曾发出著名警告 他声称……
Alan Greenspan famously warned of what he called…
股票市场中出现了非理性的繁荣
Irrational exuberance in the equity market.
如今前联邦储备系统主席
Now the former Federal Reserve chairman
说投资者担忧股票势力过大
says investors worried about excess in stocks might
总比担心债券要好
be better off worrying about bonds.
我认为我们正处于一个债券泡沫市场
Well I think we have a pending bond market bubble.
泡沫市场
A bubble though,
会使人想到狂热的投机买卖
makes you think of manic speculation.
人们打赌价格将会上升
people betting that prices will only go up.
如同17世纪声名狼藉的郁金香狂热效应
Like the infamous tulip mania in the 17thcentury.
这发生在荷兰 郁金香先是价格飞涨
It happened in Holland…where prices fortulip bulbs skyrocketed…and then suffered
随之就遭遇了滑铁卢
a spectacular collapse.
其问题是 郁金香价格
The problem – prices of tulips got way
与其固有价值不符
out of line with their intrinsic value.
几十年以来 债券价格攀升
Prices of bonds… well they have been climbingfor decades.
最近几年 政府借款成本
In recent years borrowing costs
在很多国家创历史新低
for governments have hit record lows in many countries and
我们很容易就能得出两个基本原因
we can easily point to two basic reasons forthat. One:
一. 自从金融危机以来
since the financial crisis,
中央银行已经买入数万亿美元的
central banks have been buying trillions and trillions of
等值债券来刺激全球经济
dollars worth of bonds to stimulate the global economy,
这大幅增进了
that’s boosted demand for assets
对不动产的需求
in a massive way.
导致了债券价格增高和借款成本极大极大幅度降低
Driving bond prices up and borrowing costsmuch, much lower. Two:
二. 低通货膨胀
low inflation.
把通货膨胀想成债券投资者的敌人
Consider inflation the enemy of bond investors,
当物价上涨使得
when consumer prices rise that eats into the
债券投资者的实际收入缩减时
real income of bond investors and
市场参与者则需要借款人支付更高额的利息
market participants demand higher interest payments from borrowers
来补偿他们
to compensate them.
数年来 通货膨胀维持稳固的低水平
For years now, inflation has remained stubbornly low,
对于强大的债券市场而言
that’s a fertile environment for a strong
这是有利的环境
bond market.
如今 格林斯潘的基本论点是我们正进入不同的环境中
Now Greenspan’s basic argument is that we are moving into different environment.
一个低水平通货膨胀不会再持续很久的环境
And environment where inflation won’t stay at low levels much longer
一个投资者需要更多补偿 更高额利息的环境
the environment where investors will demand more compensation and bigger interest payments in return
将这种环境和中央银行结合
Combine that with central banks beginning
解除刺激 终止债券购买项目
to remove stimulus and end bond buying programs
这个理论本质上就是环境可能会给债券市场带来麻烦
and the argument is essentially that it could spell trouble for the bond market.
现如今 你很难找到一个
Right now you’ll struggle to find an
告诉你说他们视债券为
investor who will tell you what they see in bonds is
几个世纪之前的郁金香狂热的投资者了
reminiscent of the tulip mania
但是大多数都同意债券市场
of centuries ago, but most accept the bond market is very
相当昂贵
expensive.
格林斯潘认为那是不成立的 而且当泡沫市场爆炸时
Greenspan thinks it’s unsustainable and when it pops,
没人能得到好处
it will be bad for everyone.

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视频概述

债券市场是否如同郁金香狂热,债券市场变化的原因

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收集自网络

翻译译者

六十一

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审核员 MF

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr76385gErA

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