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什么是“道琼斯指数” – 译学馆
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什么是“道琼斯指数”

What the Heck Is: The DOW?

道琼斯指数是什么鬼?
What the heck is the Dow?
对于很多人来说 “道琼斯指数”是一个专业术语
For many people, the Dow is one of those terms
当你在电视上听到或在文章中看到它时
that when you hear it on TV or read it in an article,
你会目光呆滞
your eyes glaze over
思维飘散到一些更贴近生活的事情上
and your mind wanders to something more relevant to your life,
比如你能否同时在嘴里塞12颗棉花糖
like whether you could fit 12 marshmallows in your mouth at once.
但如果你不知道道琼斯指数是什么
But how do you know you don’t need to know what the Dow is…
你又怎么知道你不需要知道道琼斯指数是什么?
when you don’t know what the Dow is?
《两美分》
在19世纪末期
In the late 19th century,
一个叫查尔斯·道的报社编辑
a newspaper editor named Charles Dow
和一个叫爱德华·琼斯的统计学家
and a statistician named Edward Jones
想创造一个简单的工具
wanted to create a simple tool
来测算美国日常经济发展情况
for measuring how the U.S economy was doing day-to-day.
由于当时工业是经济发展的主体
Since most of the economy was industrial at the time,
他们决定把最大的12家工业公司的股票价格
they decided to combine the stock prices of the twelve biggest industrial companies
编到一个指数里面:道琼斯工业平均指数
into one statistic: the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
这12家公司是
Those twelve companies were:
美国棉花油制造公司 美国糖类公司
American Cotton Oil Company, American Sugar Company,
美国烟草公司 芝加哥燃气公司
American Tobacco Company, Chicago Gas Company,
蒸馏和牲畜养殖公司 拉克利德天然气公司
Distilling & Cattle Feeding Company, Laclede Gas Company,
国家铅业公司 北美公司
National Lead Company, North American Company,
田纳西煤 铁与铁路公司
Tennessee Coal, Iron and Railroad Company,
美国皮草公司 美国橡胶公司
U.S. Leather Company, United States Rubber Company,
和唯一一个至今仍在道琼斯指数的公司:
and the only one still on the Dow today:
通用电气公司
General Electric.
如今 道琼斯指数由30家公司股票编制而成
Today, 30 companies make up the Dow,
而且这些公司的综合股票价格被视为一个指标
and their combined share prices are used as an index,
或者说一个基准
or a benchmark,
它不仅反映了股票市场的整体行情
not just for how the stock market is performing in general,
也反映了个别公司相较于市场的行情
but also how specific companies are performing compared to the market.
所以 举个例子
So, for instance,
如果道琼斯指数正在下滑
if you own a blue-chip stock
而你的一只蓝筹股股价保持稳定
that’s holding steady while the Dow is going down,
你可以说你的股票表现胜过股市行情
you can say that your stock is outperforming the market.
但是等一下
But wait a minute.
将近4000家公司在美国股市上交易
There’s almost 4,000 companies being traded on the U.S. stock market.
仅30家大小不一的公司 如何靠谱地反映股票行情呢?
How could just 30 provide a reliable snapshot, no matter how big they are?
这个问题很合理
That’s a valid question.
有人认为 人们把道琼斯指数的重要性夸大了
Some people think the Dow‘s importance has been blown way out of proportion.
毕竟 这30家公司
After all, these 30 companies can be
在大部分美国公司受到重创的时候还能表现良好
doing well when most Americans are hurting,
比如在大量裁员的情况下
like in the case of massive layoffs.
而且正如你可能已经注意到的那样
and as you’ve probably already noticed,
他们有做大量的海外业务
they do a LOT of business overseas,
所以他们的股票价格并不一定反映出美国经济的力量
so their share prices don’t necessarily reflect the strength of the American economy.
所以为什么新闻主持人仍然无休无止的提到道琼斯指数
So why do cable news hosts still endlessly refer to it
好像它是测量股市行情的唯一标准那样?
as if it’s the end-all, be-all of market measurement?
道琼斯指数!
Dow!
好吧 股票市场是个奇怪的东西
Well, the stock market’s a funny thing.
由于它的升跌极大程度上取决于
Since its gains and losses are driven largely
人们决定买还是卖
by whether people are deciding to buy or sell,
实际经济情况
what’s actually happening in the economy
不比人们对经济的想法来得重要
is less important than what people think is happening.
一个独立的股票经纪人试图猜出
An individual stockbroker is trying to guess
其他所有股票经纪人打算干什么
what all the other stockbrokers are going to do
但是其他所有股票经纪人也在想同样的事
But all the other stockbrokers are thinking the exact same thing.
每个投资者都需要看道琼斯指数
Each investor needs to watch the Dow
只因为他或她知道
simply because he or she knows
其他投资者都在看道琼斯指数
that every other investor is watching the Dow.
这是无休止的猜测的游戏的起点
This the starting point of an endless guessing game
这常常会引发过度反应 导致股市泡沫的形成和破裂
that often leads to overreactive bubbles and plunges.
《纽约时报》的亚当·戴维森
Adam Davidson of the New York Times
称道琼斯指数为“焦虑放大工具”
called the Dow an “anxiety amplification device”.
所以你需不需要关心道琼斯指数?
So do you need to worry about the Dow?
你需不需要盯住它 根据每条新闻故事更新你的401k退休计划?
Should you track it like a hawk, updating your 401(k) with every news story?
或者你只要忽视它就行?
Or should you just ignore it?
都不是
Neither.
了解道琼斯是啥……或者不是啥
Knowing what the Dow is… and isn’t,
能让你在经济不景气时
will help protect you from the hysteria
不被充斥着新闻的恐慌情绪影响
that can dominate the news in times of worry.
但是你应该知道这只是
But you should know that it’s just one of many indicators
衡量美国经济发展情况的指标之一
of how things are going in the U.S. economy,
像GDP 职工数量 和国债利率
like GDP, employment numbers, and Treasury Interest Rates.
也许我们应该看看指数名字的主人怎么做
Maybe we should take a cue from the man it’s named for.
据观察 查尔斯·道自己很少关注这一指数
Charles Dow was observed to rarely look at the index himself
而且道琼斯指数的执行董事约翰·普瑞斯博
And the executive director of Dow Jones Indexes, John Prestbo,
建议普通投资者
recommended that the average investor
每一季度只需要看一次这些指数
should only look at the index around once a quarter,
或者最多每个月看一次
or once a month at the very most
这样下次你听到新闻上有人大声谈论道琼斯指数时
So the next time you hear someone on cable news yelling about the Dow…
你已经知道道琼斯指数是什么了
now that you know what it is,
你大概可以继续做你之前在做的事情
you can probably go back to what you were doing.
这里是我们的《两美分》!
And that’s our two cents!

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道琼斯指数对投资者来说到底有多重要?道琼斯指数的参考价值到底有多大?详情请见本期视频

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