People often ask me the question,
“ In the era of AI what jobs and what skills will I
first of all let ’ s take a look
at the first era of space exploration the 1960s.
There was a crash program back then to miniaturizethe transistor.
That’s why our astronauts like John Glenn,they’re short people.
They were tiny people.
The Russian astronauts, they ’ re also very tiny
because they have to fit inside the nose
cone of a missile,
and we scientists were given the mission to miniaturize transistors
as far as possible. Now,
as a consequence of that,
we have what is called the Internet age today.
All the goodies you see in your living room,
all the telecommunication wonders of the Internet
were in part a consequence of this mass drive to miniaturize transistors,
because we were
in the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
Now,as we enter the second golden era
there’ s going to be yet another crash program to miniaturize
computers even more.
This means transistors made out of molecules, quantum computers,
a whole new era of computation.
So there could be yet another golden age
of computer technology emerging because of the
emphasis placed on going to Mars with the cheapest,
lightest possible object, and this
means even more computer power.
Then the other question is:
“ Well, what are the jobs that are going to be there in
the future?” Well,
首先 我想说 半熟练工作
first of all I tell people that semiskilled work will be
with us for many decades to come,
包括清洁工 环卫工人 水管工
including garbage men, sanitation workers,plumbers,
警察 园艺师 建筑工人
policemen, gardeners, construction workers.
You see, robots cannot pick up garbage.
Robots cannot design a garden.
Robots cannot solve a crime.
We forget that robots are very bad at patternrecognition!
Robots can not fix your toilet,
and they probably won ’ t be able to for many decades to come.
实际上 为了创造出福岛机器人 五角大楼甚至赞助DARPA挑战
In fact the Pentagon even sponsored the DARPA Challenge to create a Fukushima robot.
Their job was to take our skills
of today and build a robot that could clean up Fukushima.
This means A, driving a car, B,
B下车 C打扫楼梯 扭转活门
getting out of the car, C, sweeping the floor, turning
a valve and doing some simple maintenance work that a five-year-old kid could do. Well,
the results are on the Internet.
You can download them and they’re hilarious.
You see many robots falling
over with the inability to get up because they ’ re like
an upside down turtle; they‘re simply stuckon the floor.
We have a long ways to go
before we master pattern recognition at the level of a plumber,
at the level of a gardener.
The job to avoid in the future, however,
are the middleman jobs, for example, brokers and
low-level tellers and accountants.
For example, today when you go to
a stockbroker you no longer buy stock.
Now you may say to yourself, “ That ’ s stupid,
everybody knows when you go to a stockbroker
you buy stock, I mean what else are you going to buy?”Well
You don’t buy stock when you go to a stockbroker.
You can buy stock
on your wristwatch so why bother to go to a stockbroker?
Because you want something that stockbrokersprovide that robots cannot.
And that is intellectual capital.
即经验 秘诀 理解 创新
That means experience, know how, savvy, innovation,
天赋 领导能力 这些是电脑和机器人
talent, leadership—none of which computers
and robots can provide.
So the large explosion
of jobs in the future will be jobs that robots can not do, i.e.
Jobs involving pattern recognition and jobs involving common sense,
as well as middlemen jobs that
involve intellectual capital, creativity—productsof the mind.
Those are the jobs which are still going to flourish in the future.
As Tony Blair of England likes to say,
England derives more revenue today from rock ‘ n ’
roll than it does with the coal mining industry.
And why is that?
Because coal mining represents commodity capital.
Commodity capital, yes we ’ ll have it for decades,
centuries to come, but it falls in
price every year. Agriculture,
today you had breakfast that the king of England could not have had
a hundred years ago.
Think of what you had for breakfast:
Delicacies from around the world, almost for free.
That ’ s because agriculture being a commodity drops
in price because of better containerization,
mass production, shipping, better culturalmethods and things like that.
So this means
that jobs that are intellectual rather than are commodity related
will flourish in the future.