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未来什么工作会更有前途?然而… – 译学馆
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未来什么工作会更有前途?然而...

What jobs will flourish in the future. And which you should avoid. | Michio Kaku

人们常常问我
People often ask me the question,
“在人工智能时代 我需要哪些工作与技能?”
“ In the era of AI what jobs and what skills will I
很好
need?” Well,
首先 来看
first of all let ’ s take a look
20世纪60年代 太空探索的第一个时代
at the first era of space exploration the 1960s.
有一个致力于使晶体管微型化的紧急计划
There was a crash program back then to miniaturizethe transistor.
这是为什么约翰·格伦等宇航员都很矮
That’s why our astronauts like John Glenn,they’re short people.
他们身材都很矮小
They were tiny people.
俄国宇航员也非常矮小
The Russian astronauts, they ’ re also very tiny
因为他们要适应火箭
because they have to fit inside the nose
的前锥体
cone of a missile,
我们科学家要尽可能地完成缩小晶体管的任务
and we scientists were given the mission to miniaturize transistors
现在
as far as possible. Now,
由于这个原因
as a consequence of that,
我们如今被称为互联网时代
we have what is called the Internet age today.
所有你在卧室看到的东西
All the goodies you see in your living room,
所有互联网的通讯奇迹
all the telecommunication wonders of the Internet
都是缩小晶体管的部分成果
were in part a consequence of this mass drive to miniaturize transistors,
因为那时我们
because we were
正在与前苏联冷战
in the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
现在 我们进入第二个黄金时代
Now,as we enter the second golden era
这个时代将会创造出更甚之前的
there’ s going to be yet another crash program to miniaturize
微型电脑
computers even more.
这意味着晶体管由分子 量子论计算机
This means transistors made out of molecules, quantum computers,
与计算的全新时代制成
a whole new era of computation.
所以 这将是计算机技术新兴的
So there could be yet another golden age
另一个黄金时代 因为
of computer technology emerging because of the
如何用最轻便的物体登上火星
emphasis placed on going to Mars with the cheapest,
成为时代热点
lightest possible object, and this
这意味着更成熟的计算能力
means even more computer power.
另一个问题是
Then the other question is:
“那么 未来最有前景的工作
“ Well, what are the jobs that are going to be there in
是什么?”
the future?” Well,
首先 我想说 半熟练工作
first of all I tell people that semiskilled work will be
在未来数十年内会更普遍
with us for many decades to come,
包括清洁工 环卫工人 水管工
including garbage men, sanitation workers,plumbers,
警察 园艺师 建筑工人
policemen, gardeners, construction workers.
你看 机器人不能捡垃圾
You see, robots cannot pick up garbage.
机器人不能设计花园
Robots cannot design a garden.
机器人不能处理犯罪
Robots cannot solve a crime.
我们忘记了机器人不善于模式识别
We forget that robots are very bad at patternrecognition!
机器人不能修厕所
Robots can not fix your toilet,
它们也不太可能等待黄金时代的到来
and they probably won ’ t be able to for many decades to come.
实际上 为了创造出福岛机器人 五角大楼甚至赞助DARPA挑战
In fact the Pentagon even sponsored the DARPA Challenge to create a Fukushima robot.
他们的工作是使用当代科技
Their job was to take our skills
创造出可以清理福岛的机器人
of today and build a robot that could clean up Fukushima.
这意味着A开车
This means A, driving a car, B,
B下车 C打扫楼梯 扭转活门
getting out of the car, C, sweeping the floor, turning
完成一些简单的 五岁孩子也能做的维修工作
a valve and doing some simple maintenance work that a five-year-old kid could do. Well,
很好 这些成果就在网上
the results are on the Internet.
你可以直接下载 它们非常可笑
You can download them and they’re hilarious.
你会发现
You see many robots falling
很多摔倒的机器人无法再站起来
over with the inability to get up because they ’ re like
因为它们就像一个四脚朝天的海龟 在地板上不动弹不得
an upside down turtle; they‘re simply stuckon the floor.
在我们能达到
We have a long ways to go
水管工与园丁的水平掌控模式识别
before we master pattern recognition at the level of a plumber,
还有很远的路要走
at the level of a gardener.
未来不会被代替的工作
The job to avoid in the future, however,
却是一些中间人工作 比如经纪人
are the middleman jobs, for example, brokers and
初级出纳员和会计
low-level tellers and accountants.
比如 现在当你咨询
For example, today when you go to
股票经纪人 你买的不是股票
a stockbroker you no longer buy stock.
可能你会觉得”这太蠢了”
Now you may say to yourself, “ That ’ s stupid,
人人都知道 当你咨询股票经纪人
everybody knows when you go to a stockbroker
你会买股票 我的意思是你还想买其它什么?”
you buy stock, I mean what else are you going to buy?”Well
不是
no.
当你找股票经纪人 你买的不是股票
You don’t buy stock when you go to a stockbroker.
你可以用手表
You can buy stock
买股票 所以你为何去麻烦股票经纪人?
on your wristwatch so why bother to go to a stockbroker?
因为你想得到股票经纪人能提供的 而机器却没有的
Because you want something that stockbrokersprovide that robots cannot.
这是关键
And that is intellectual capital.
即经验 秘诀 理解 创新
That means experience, know how, savvy, innovation,
天赋 领导能力 这些是电脑和机器人
talent, leadership—none of which computers
无法提供的
and robots can provide.
所以未来激增的工作
So the large explosion
将是那些机器人无法完成的工作
of jobs in the future will be jobs that robots can not do, i.e.
涉及模式识别 常识的工作
Jobs involving pattern recognition and jobs involving common sense,
和涉及智力 创造力的
as well as middlemen jobs that
中间人工作
involve intellectual capital, creativity—productsof the mind.
这些工作在未来会继续有前景
Those are the jobs which are still going to flourish in the future.
英国首相布莱尔说
As Tony Blair of England likes to say,
比起煤矿开采产业 英国现在的财政收入
England derives more revenue today from rock ‘ n ’
更多来自于摇滚乐
roll than it does with the coal mining industry.
这是为什么呢?
And why is that?
因为煤矿开采代表的是商品资本
Because coal mining represents commodity capital.
商品资本数十年后才到来
Commodity capital, yes we ’ ll have it for decades,
价格却每年都在下跌
centuries to come, but it falls in
农业
price every year. Agriculture,
比如:
for example:
现在你吃的早餐是一百年前英国国王
today you had breakfast that the king of England could not have had
吃不到的
a hundred years ago.
想想你现在吃的早餐
Think of what you had for breakfast:
来自全球的佳肴 几乎免费
Delicacies from around the world, almost for free.
这是因为农产品由于集装箱化
That ’ s because agriculture being a commodity drops
大量生产 运送等等
in price because of better containerization,
价格下跌
mass production, shipping, better culturalmethods and things like that.
所以这意味着
So this means
脑力工作而不是商品相关工作
that jobs that are intellectual rather than are commodity related
将在未来更有前途
will flourish in the future.

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未来什么工作会更有前途?

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