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什么是公地悲剧? – 译学馆
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什么是公地悲剧?

What is the tragedy of the commons? - Nicholas Amendolare

最大多数人共享的事物 却只得到最少的照顾
——亚里士多德
Imagine as a thought experiment that
想象一个思维实验
you live in a small village
你住在一个小村庄
and depend on the local fish pond for food.
以当地的鱼塘为生
You share the pond with three other villagers.
你与另外三个村民共享鱼塘
The pond starts off with a dozen fish,
鱼塘起初有十二条鱼
and the fish reproduce.
并且鱼在繁殖
For every two fish,
每两条鱼
there will be one baby added each night.
每晚会产生一条小鱼
So,in order to maximize your supply of food,
所以 为了最大限度地提供食物
how many fish should you catch each day?
你每天应该捕多少鱼?
Take a moment to think about it.
花点时间想一想
Assume baby fish grow to full size immediately
假设小鱼立刻长大
and that the pond begins at full capacity,
鱼塘以饱和状态开始
and ignore factors like the sex of the fish you catch.
忽略其他因素 比如所捕的鱼的性别
The answer? One, and it’s not just you.
答案是什么呢? 一条 且不止是你一人
The best way to maximize every villager’s food supply
最大化供应每个村民的食物的最好方法
is for each fisherman to take just one fish each day.
是每个渔夫每天只捕一条鱼
Here’s how the math works.
下面是数学解释
If each villager takes one fish,
如果每个村民钓一条鱼
there will be eight fish left over night.
隔夜将剩8条鱼
Each pair of fish produces one baby,
每一对鱼产生一条小鱼
and the next day, the pond will be fully restocked with twelve fish.
第二天 鱼塘会继续有十二条鱼
If anyone takes more than one,
如果任何一人多钓一条
the number of reproductive pairs drops,
用于繁殖的鱼数量减少
and the population won’t be able to bounce back.
接着 鱼的数量无法恢复
Eventually,the fish in the lake will be gone,
最终 池里的鱼全部消失
leaving all four villagers to starve.
使四个村民全都饿死
This fish pond is just one example of a classic problem
这个鱼塘只是一个经典问题的一个例子
called the tragedy of the commons.
称之为公地悲剧
The phenomenon was first described in a pamphlet
这一理论首先出现在
by economist William Forster Lloyd in 1833
由威廉·佛司特·洛伊在1883年所著
in a discussion of the overgrazing of cattle
有关村庄的公共草地
on village common areas.
过度放牧的讨论的一本小册子中
More than 100 years later, ecologist Garrett Hardin revived the concept
100多年后 加勒特·哈丁重申此概念
to describe what happens when many individuals
描述了会发生的情况当许多个体
all share a limited resource,
共同分享一个有限的资源
like grazing land, fishing areas, living space,even clean air.
如牧场 鱼塘 住地 甚至新鲜空气
Hardin argued that these situations pit short-term self-interest
哈丁认为这些情况深陷短期的私利
against the common good,
冲击公共利益的局面
and they end badly for everyone,
最终对每个人都不利
resulting in overgrazing, overfishing, overpopulation, pollution,
导致放牧和捕捞过度 人口过剩 污染重
and other social and environmental problems.
以及其他社会环境问题
The key feature of a tragedy of the commons
公地悲剧的主要特征是
is that it provides an opportunity
提供了一个
for an individual to benefit him or herself
无论在人群中传播多少负面影响
while spreading out any negative effects across the larger population.
却让个人受益的机会
To see what that means, let’s revisit our fish pond.
为了理解这个特征 让我们回到鱼塘问题
Each individual fisherman is motivated
每个渔民渴望
to take as many fish as he can for himself.
为自己尽可能地多捕鱼
Meanwhile,any decline in fish reproduction
与此同时 鱼类繁殖的任何下降
is shared by the entire village.
是由整个村庄共同承担的
Anxious to avoid losing out to his neighbors,
急于避免输给邻居
a fisherman will conclude
一个渔夫会推断
that it’s in his best interest to take an extra fish,
多拿一条鱼(两条 甚至三条)
or two, or three.
会更有利
Unfortunately,this is the same conclusion reached by the other fisherman,
可惜其他渔夫也这么认为
and that’s the tragedy.
这就是公地悲剧
Optimizing for the self in the short term isn’t optimal
自我利益的最大化不是最佳的
for anyone in the long term.
对于任何从长远来看的人
That’s a simplified example, but the tragedy of the commons
这是一个简化的例子 但是公地悲剧
plays out in the more complex systems of real life, too.
也发生在现实生活中更复杂的系统里
The overuse of antibiotics has led
抗生素的过度使用导致
to short-term gains in livestock production
牲畜生产的短期获利
and in treating common illnesses,
常见疾病的治愈
but it’s also resulted in the evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,
但它也导致抗生素耐药菌的进化
which threaten the entire population.
威胁了全部人口
A coal-fired power plant produces cheap electricity for its customers
一个燃煤火力发电厂为顾客生产廉价电力
and profits for its owners.
并为它的所有者带来利润
These local benefits are helpful in the short term,
短期内这些地方利益是有帮助的
but pollution from mining and burning
但煤炭开采和燃烧的污染
coal is spread across the entire atmosphere
遍及整个大气层
and sticks around for thousands of years.
并且四处游散 遗留数千年
There are other examples, too. Littering,
还有一些其他的例子 乱丢垃圾
water shortages, deforestation, traffic jams,
水资源浪费 森林砍伐 交通拥堵
even the purchase of bottled water.
甚至瓶装水的购买
But human civilization has proven it’s capable of doing something remarkable.
但人类文明证明他们能做出一些非凡的事
We form social contracts, we make communal agreements,
我们形成社会契约 制定公共协议
we elect governments, and we pass laws.
选举政府 颁布法律
All this to save our collective selves from our own individual impulses.
这都是为了拯救冲动个体组成的集体自我
It isn’t easy,
这不容易
and we certainly don’t get it right nearly all of the time.
多数时候 我们都难以做到
But humans at our best have shown
但杰出的人类展现了
that we can solve these problems
如何解决这些问题的非凡能力
and we can continue to do so if we remember Hardin’s lesson.
我们只要牢记哈丁的教训就依然可以
When the tragedy of the commons applies,
灵活运用公地悲剧
what’s good for all of us is good for each of us.
对我们所有人有益的事对每个人都有好处

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视频概述

“公地悲剧”是一种涉及个人利益与公共利益对资源分配有所冲突的社会陷阱。这个理论就如亚里士多德所言:“那由最大人数所共享的事物,却只得到最少的照顾”。

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxC161GvMPc

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