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科技对工作的影响是什么? – 译学馆
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科技对工作的影响是什么?

What is the meaning of work? | Roy Bahat and Bryn Freedman

You’re a guy whose company funds these AI programs and invests.
你们公司投资并入股了人工智能项目
So why should we trust you to not have a bias
那么我们凭什么相信你能公正地
and tell us something really useful for the rest of us
告诉在座的各位一些真正实用的
about the…the future of work.
有关…未来职业的事情
So, yes. I am.
对 我是投资者 也是股东
And when you wake up in the morning and you read the newspaper.
当你早上醒来 去读报纸时
and it says,” The robots are coming,
报纸上写着:“机器人要来了
they may take all our jobs.”
我们可能都要失业了”
as a start-up investor focused on the future of work,
作为关注未来职业的投资创始人
our fund was the first one to say
我们的基金组织第一个提出
artificial intelligence should be a focus for us.
人工智能应该作为我们的关注对象
So I woke up one morning and read that and said,
所以我某天早上醒来 读到这些文章时 我说:
“Oh, my gosh, they’re talking about me. That’s me who’s doing that.”
“哦天哪 他们在谈论我 我就是投资AI的”
And ah… and then I thought: wait a minute…
然后…然后我就想:等等…
If things continue,
照这个趋势发展下去
then maybe not only will the start-ups
之后可能不仅是我们投资的
in which we invest struggle,
初创企业会陷入困境
because there won’t be people to have jobs
因为那时人们都将失去工作
to pay for the things that they make and buy them,
买不起机器人生产的东西
but our economy and society might struggle too.
而且我们的经济和社会也会陷入困境
And look, I should be the guy
你瞧 我现在坐在这
who sits here and tells you:
就是为了告诉大家:
“Everything is going to be fine. You know, It’s all going to work out great. Hey,
“一切都会好起来的 一切问题都会解决的
when they introduced the ATM machine,
你想想 当初引进了自动取款机
years later, there are more tellers in banks.”
几年后 银行柜员的数量不减反增”
It’s true.
这是事实
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,”This is going to accelerate.
但我仔细想了一下 现象会加速
And if it does accelerate, there’s a chance the center doesn’t hold.
如果加速真的开始 混乱终会降临
But I figured somebody must know the answer to this
但我觉得 肯定有人知道答案
there are so many ideas out there.
外界对此也有许多看法
And I read all the books,
我看了所有相关的书
and I went to the conferences,
又参加了各种会议
and at one point,
曾经有段时间
we counted more than 100 efforts to study the future of work.
我们为了研究未来职业 进行了上百次的艰难尝试
And it was a frustrating experience,
但结果令我们很泄气
because I’d hear the same back-and-forth over and over again:
因为我总是反反复复听到同样的话:
“The robots are coming!”
“机器人要来了”
And then somebody else would say,
然后就会有人说:
“Oh, don’t worry about that, they’ve always said that and it turns out OK.”
“哦 别担心 他们总是这样说 结果根本没事”
And then somebody else would say, “Well,
又会有其他人说:
it’s really about the meaning of your job, anyway.”
“不管怎样 那与你的工作的价值有关”
And then everybody would shrug off and go off and have a drink.
之后大家就不当回事 散的散 该喝的喝
And it felt like there was this Kabuki theater of this discussion,
这就像是在剧场表演中的一场讨论
where nobody was talking to each other.
剧中没有人在互相谈话交流
And many of the people that I knew and worked with in the technology world
我在科技领域认识并共事过的许多人
were not speaking to policy makers;
都不和决策者们交流
the policy makers were not speaking to them.
决策者们也不找他们谈话
And so we partnered with
所以 这次我们和
a nonpartisan think tank NGO called New America
一个名为“新美国”的非政府组织的无党派智库合作
to study this issue.
来研究这个问题
And we brought together a group of people,
我们一群人聚集在了一起
including an AI czar at a technology company
包括一家科技公司的一个AI权威领导人
and a video game designer and a heartland conservative
一个电子游戏设计师 一个内地保守派
and a Wall Street investor and a socialist magazine editor.
一个华尔街投资者和一个《社会主义者》杂志编辑
— literally,all in the same room;
坦白说 所有人都聚在一个房间里
it was occasionally awkward —
偶尔会有点尴尬
and to try to figure out what is it that will happen here.
大家都想知道事情的走向
The question we asked was simple.
我们提出的问题很简单
It was: What is the effect of technology on work going to be?
那就是:科技对未来职业的影响是什么?
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,
特别是在未来的10到20年里
because we wanted to look out far enough
因为我们觉得眼光足够长远
that there could be real change,
才可能有真正大的变化
but soon enough that we weren’t talking about teleportation or anything like that.
但很快我们就不再讨论瞬间穿越这类事情了
And we recognized —
因为我们意识到
and I think every year we’re reminded of
我们每年都会被这个事实提醒
this in a world
在这个世界
that predicting what’s going to happen is hard.
预测事情的走向是很困难的
So instead of predicting, there are other things you can do.
所以除了预测 你还可以做其他事情
You can try to imagine alternate possible futures,
你可以试着想象其他可能的未来
which is what we did.
我们就是这么做的
We did a scenario-planning exercise,
我们做了一个情景规划练习
and we imagined cases where no job is safe.
设想了每个工作都是不安全的情境
We imagined cases where every job is safe.
设想了每个工作都是安全的情境
And we imagined every distinct possibility we could.
我们尽力设想出每一种不同的可能
And the result, which really surprised us,
结果 真正让我们吃惊的是
was when you think through those futures
当你仔细思考未来
and you think what should we do,
思考我们应该做什么
the answers about what we should do
关于我们应该做什么的答案
actually turn out to be the same,
其实一直以来都是一样的
no matter what happens.
无论在何种情境下
And the irony
讽刺的是
of looking out 10 to 20 years into the future is,
放眼未来10年到20年
you realize that the things we want to act on
你会发现我们希望那时会发生的事情
are actually already happening right now.
实际上现在已经在发生了
The automation is right now, the future is right now.
自动化在发生 未来即是现在
BF: So what does that mean,
所以这意味着什么
and what does that tell us?
这告诉了我们什么?
If the future is now,
如果未来即当下
what is it that we should be doing,
那我们现在应该做什么
and what should we be thinking about?
又应该思考些什么呢?
RB: We have to understand the problem first.
首先 我们要理解问题所在
And so the date are that
现在这个时代
as the economy becomes more productive
随着经济变得更加发达
and individual workers become more productive,
个体劳动者的生产力也逐步提高
their wages haven’t risen.
但人们的工资却没有上涨
If you look at the proportion of prime working-age men
如果你去看处于最佳工作年龄的人数比例
in the United States at least,
至少在美国
who work now versus in 1960,
对比现在和1960年的数据
we have three times as many men not working.
你会发现 现在待业的人数是1960年的三倍
And then you hear the stories.
然后你会听到一些传闻
I sat down with a group of Walmart workers and said,
我和沃尔玛的员工们坐在一起 我说:
“What do you think about this cashier, this futuristic self-checkout thing?”
“你对未来的自助收银设备有何看法?”
They said,”Well, that’s nice, but have you heard about the cash recycler?
他们说:“挺好的 但你听说过现金循环机吗?
That’s a machine that’s being installed right now,
沃尔玛现在正在安装这种机器
and is eliminating two jobs at every Walmart right now.”
所以现在每个沃尔玛都减少了两个职位”
And so we just thought,”Geez. We don’t understand the problem.”
我们都在想 “天哪 这是怎么回事”
And so did we do ? we looked at
接着我们又做了什么呢?
the voices that were the ones that were excluded,
我们倾听了那些被忽略的声音
which is all of the people affected by this change.
被人工智能影响的人们的声音
And we decided to listen to them,
我们决定听听他们的感受
sort of”automation and its discontents.”
比如“自动化带来的不满情绪”
And I’ve spent the last couple of years doing that.
过去几年我一直都在做这件事
I’ve been to Flint, Michigan, and Youngstown, Ohio,
我去了密歇根州的弗林特和俄亥俄州的扬斯敦
talking about entrepreneurs, trying to make it work
和那里的企业家们讨论
in a very different environment from New York or San Francisco
希望在一个与纽约 旧金山 伦敦或东京
or London or Tokyo.
完全不同的环境中开展
Um…I’ve been to prisons twice to talk to inmates
我和监狱里的犯人们谈了两次
about their jobs after they leave.
关于离开监狱后 他们的工作问题
Um…I’ve sat down with truck drivers to ask them about the self-driving truck,
我也曾和卡车司机坐在一起 询问关于无人驾驶卡车的看法
with people who, in additionto their full-time job,
也和除了他们的全职工作之外
care for an aging relative.
还要照顾年迈亲戚的人们谈过
And when you talk to people,
在和别人交谈的过程中
there were two themes that came out loud and clear.
显露了出两个特别清晰的主题
The first one was
第一个是
that people are less looking for more money
人们对赚更多的钱没那么渴望了
or get out of the fear of the robot taking their job,
也没那么害怕机器人抢走他们的工作了
and they just want something stable.
他们只想要一些稳定的东西
They want something predictable.
一些可以预见的东西
So if you survey people and
所以如果你去做调查
ask them what they want out of work,
询问人们想从工作中得到什么
for everybody who makes less than 150,000 dollars a year,
对那些年收入低于15万美元的人来说
they’ll take a more stable and secure income, on average,
他们更想要一个稳定 有保障的平均收入
over earning more money.
而不是赚更多的钱
And if you think about the fact that
你可以想一下 这个道理
not only for all of the people across the earth who don’t earn a living,
不仅适用于世界上所有难以谋生的人
but for those who do,
也适用于有钱可赚的人
the vast majority earn a different amount from month to month.
绝大多数人的月收入都不同
and have an instability, all of a sudden you realize,
当收入不稳定时 你才会突然意识到
“Wait a minute. We have a real problem on our hands.”
“等等 我们碰上大麻烦了”
And the second thing they say,
而人们提到第二件事
which took us a longer time to understand,
我们花了很长时间才弄明白
is Um… they say they want dignity.
他们说他们想要尊严
And that concept of self-worth through work
并且是通过工作实现自我价值
emerged again and again and again in our conversations.
我们谈话时 他们多次提到这点
BF: So, you know, I certainly appreciate this answer.
好的 非常感谢您的回答
But you can’t eat dignity, you can’t clothe your children with self-esteem. So,
但尊严不能当饭吃 自尊也不能让孩子们有衣服穿
what is that, how do you reconcile —
尊严是什么 你是如何协调工作与尊严的
what does dignity mean,
尊严意味着什么
and what is the relationship between dignity and stability?
尊严和稳定之间又有什么关系呢?
RB: You can’t eat dignity. You need stability first.
的确 尊严不能当饭吃 你先要有稳定的收入
And the good news is,
不过好消息是
many of the conversations that are happening right now
现在正进行着很多研究
are about how we solve that.
研究我们如何解决收入稳定问题
You know, I’m a proponent of studying guaranteed income,
你知道 我是保障收入研究的支持者
as one example, conversations about how health care gets provided
比如说 如何提供医疗保险
and other benefits.
和其他福利的研究
Those conversations are happening,
这些研究正进行着
and we’re at a time where we must figure that out.
我们现在必须尽快找出办法
It is the crisis of our era.
这是我们时代的当务之急
And my point of view after talking to people
在与人们交谈之后 我觉得
is that we may do that,
我们可以做那些研究
and it still might not be enough.
但可能这些仍然不够
Because what we need to do from the beginning is understand
因为我们首要任务是弄明白
what is it about work that gives people dignity,
为什么工作能给人们带来尊严
so they can live the lives that they want to live.
这样他们才能过上他们想要的生活
And so you know, that…that concept of dignity is…
所以说 尊严的概念…
is difficult to get your hands around,
你很难真正去理解
because when many people hear it — especially,
因为很多人提起尊严时 特别是
to be honest, rich people —
说实话 有钱人提起时
they hear”meaning.”
他们提到的是“意义”
They hear”My work is important to me.”
他们提到“我的工作对我来说很重要”
And again, if you survey people and you ask them,
如果你再去调查人们 问问他们
“Is it important to your wor… How important is it to you
“你的工作对你重要吗…于你有多大意义
that your work be important to you?”
你的工作对你来说有多重要?”
only people who make 150,000 dollars a year or more
你发现只有年收入在15万美元及以上的人
say that it is important to them that their work be important.
才会说工作对他们来说很重要
BF: Meaning, meaningful?
意义是什么 有意义吗?
RB: Just defined as,”Is your work important to you?”
就像问题的定义“你的工作对你重要吗?”
And whatever somebody took that to mean.
而不管旁人认为是否有意义
And yet, of course dignity is essential.
不过 尊严当然是必不可少的
I mean we talked to truck drivers who said,
我们和卡车司机聊天 他们说
“I saw my cousin drive,
“我看到我表弟开汽车
and I got on the open road and it was amazing.
而我在开阔公路上开卡车 这感觉很棒
And I started making more money than people who went to college.”
我能开始赚到比上过大学的人更多的钱”
And then they’d get to the end of their thought
他们在思考一番后
and say something like,”You know what?
说的都是 类似于“你知道吗?
People need their fruits and vegetables in the morning,
人们早上要吃水果和蔬菜
and I’m the guy who gets it to them.”
而我就是给他们运送果蔬的人”
And we talked to somebody who,
我们还找了一个人
in addition to his job,
他除了自己的全职工作外
was caring for his aunt.
还要照顾姑姑的人
And he was making plenty of money.
他赚了很多钱
At one point we just asked,
有一次我们问他
“What is it about you going to care for your aunt?
“照顾你的姑姑意味着什么
Can’t you just pay somebody to do it?”
你不能雇个人来做吗?”
He said,”My aunt doesn’t want somebody that we pay for.
他说:“我姑姑不想要我雇人来照顾她
My aunt wants me.”
她想让我照顾她”
And so Um…there was this concept there of being needed.
所以这就是“被需要”的概念
If you study the word”dignity,” it’s fascinating.
如果你研究“尊严”这个词 会发现它很迷人
It’s one of the oldest words in the English language, from antiquity.
它源于古代 是英语中最古老的单词之一
And it has two meanings:
它有两层含义:
one is self-worth
一个是自我价值
and the other is
另一个则是
Um…that something is suitable, it’s fitting,
适合你自己的事情
meaning that you’re part of something greater than yourself,
意味着你组成了比你自己更伟大的事物
and it connects to some broader whole.
并且这个事物组成了更广泛的整体
In other words, that you’re needed.
换句话说 你是被需要的
BF: So how do you answer this question,
那么你会如何回答这个问题
I mean, this concept that we don’t pay teachers,
我是说 我们不雇佣老师
and we don’t pay eldercare workers,
我们不雇佣老人护理员
and we don’t care… pay people who really care for people
也不雇佣那些为他人服务的人
and are needed, enough?
这就是“被需要” 只是这样?
RB: Well, the good news is,
RB:好消息是
people are finally asking the question.
人们终于开始问这个问题了
So as AI investors, we often get phone calls
作为人工智能投资者 我们经常接到
from foundations or CEOs and boardrooms saying,
基金会 首席执行官和董事会的电话:
“What do we do about this?”
“我们该怎么办呢?”
And they used to be asking,
他们过去常常问:
“What do we do about introducing automation?”
“我们在引进自动化方面能做些什么?”
And now they’re asking,”What do we do about self-worth?”
现在他们问:“关于自我价值 我们能做些什么?”
And they know that the employees who work for them
因为他们知道 对为他们工作的
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,
有配偶的 上有老人的员工们来说
that dignity is essential to their ability to just do their job.
尊严对他们的工作能力至关重要
As I think there are two kinds of answers:
据我所知 有两种答案:
there’s the money side of just making your life work.
一种是物质方面能维持生活
That’s stability. If you, you know, you need to eat.
这就是稳定的重要性 毕竟你需要吃饭
And then you think about, our culture more broadly,
从更大的维度来思考我们的文化
and you ask: Who do we make into heroes? And,
你可能会问:我们该推崇谁为英雄?
you know,
你知道
what I want is to see the magazine cover
我想看到杂志的封面是
that is the person who is the heroic caregiver.
一个英勇的看护者
Or the Netflix series that dramatizes the person
或者是被网飞的剧集戏剧化的一个人
who makes all of our other lives work
这个人能让我们的生活运转起来
so we can do the things we do.
这样我们就可以做我们想做的事情
And so let’s make heroes out of those people.
我提议推崇这些人成为英雄
That’s the Netflix show that I would binge.
这种网飞剧集是我的最爱
And we’ve had chroniclers of this before —
我们以前也有这种记录者
Studs Terkel, the oral history of you know, the working experience in the United States.
斯特兹•特克尔口述了他在美国工作的经历
And what we need is the experience of needing one another
所以说我们需要的是彼此依赖
and being connected to each other.
又彼此联系的体验
Maybe that’s the answer for how we kind of all fit as a society.
也许这就是我们如何适应这个社会的答案
And the thought exercise, to me, is:
对我来说 这个思考练习是:
if you were to go back 100 years and have people —
如果你回到100年前
you know, my grandparents, great- grandparents, a tailor, worked in a mine —
我的祖父母 曾祖父母 裁缝 在一个矿场工作
they look at what all of us do for a living and say,”That’s not work.”
他们看着我们所有为谋生而工作的人说:“这不是工作”
We sit there and type and talk,
我们坐在那里打字聊天
and you know, there’s no danger of getting hurt.
根本没有受伤的危险
And my guess is
我的猜想是
that if you were to imagine 100 years from now,
你可以现在想象一下100年后
we’ll still be doing things for each other.
我们仍然在为彼此工作
We’ll still need one another.
我们仍然需要彼此
And we just will think of it as work.
我们只是把这种需求当作工作
The entire thing I’m trying to say is
我想表达的全部意思是
that dignity should not just be about having a job.
尊严不应该仅仅意味着有一份工作
Because if you say you need a job to have dignity,
因为如果你的说法像很多人一样
which many people say, the second you say that,
你需要一份工作是为了尊严
you say to all the parents
当你把这个说法告诉所有的家长
and all the teachers and all the caregivers
所有的老师和护理员的那一刻
that all of a sudden,
你突然发觉不对
because they’re not being paid for what they’re doing,
因为他们的付出就是无偿的
it somehow lacks this essential human quality.
岂不是说他们缺少尊严这一人类关键品质
To me, that’s the great puzzle of our time:
对我来说 这个时代最大的难题是:
Can we figure out how to provide that stability throughout life,
我们能否找到永久保障稳定性的方法
and then can we figure out how to create an inclusive,
能否找到创造包容性氛围的方法
not just racially, gender, but multigenerationally inclusive —
不仅是种族的 性别的 还有不同世代间的包容性
I mean, every different human experience included —
包括包容每一个不同的人生经历
in this way of understanding how we can be needed by one another.
由此理解为何我们彼此需要
BF: Thank you. RB: Thank you.
-谢谢 -谢谢
Thank you very much for your participation.
非常感谢大家的参与
(Applause)
[掌声]

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罗伊·巴哈特的公司投资了人工智能,以提高企业的效率。他想知道,人工智能回对那些工作可能会改变、消失或变得不尽如人意的人产生什么影响?这个问题让他进行了为期两年的研究之旅,以发现是什么激励了人们,以及我们为什么工作。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

kuki仔

审核员

审核员1024

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjkTrdunJzA

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