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遗漏变量偏差

What Is Omitted Variable Bias?

经济学科类在线教育网站学习经济学 了解你的世界
《经济学字典》
什么是遗漏变量偏差?
什么是遗漏变量偏差呢?
– [Narrator] What isomitted variable bias?
这是一种回归分析中的选择性偏差
It’s a type of selection bias that occurs in regression analysis
发生于我们没有包含正确的控制变量时
when we don’t includethe right controls.
用一个例子来展示是最容易的
It’s easiest to showwith an example.
或许你想了解高收入模式
Perhaps you want to know what patterns are associated with higher pay at your job.
意料之中 但是学业成绩和赚大钱是息息相关的
Well,no big surprise, but academic achievement goes hand in hand with earning lots of money.
而且研究表明
And studies have shown
如果你在一个书架有很多书的房子里长大
that if you grow up in a house with lots of books on the shelves
在学校就会表现得更好
that you tend to do better in school.
所以书架上的书
So books on the shelves cause
会让你在学校表现得更好
you to do better at school,
能让你赚更多的钱
which leads to more pay.
这很容易!
Easy enough!
所以只用往书架上放书 你就会赚更多的钱
So simply add books to your shelves and you’ll make a lot more money.
你是不是认为我们遗漏了什么重要因素?
Do you think we’ve left outanything important?
或者说 我们在考虑学业成绩时
Or is the number of bookson your shelves
书架上书的数量是我们需要考虑的全部因素吗?
all that we need to consider when thinking about academic performance?
和你父母的性格有关吗?
What about the characteristicsof your parents?
有没有可能你书架上有更多的书
Is it possible that a higher IQof your parents
和更好的学术成就
would lead to bothmore books on your shelves
是因为你父母的高智商呢?
and better academic achievement for you?
倘若不考虑父母的智商
By leaving out your parents’ IQ,
我们忽略了一个可能使结果产生偏差的变量
we are omitting a variable that could bias our results.
而撇开这个变量会让人感觉
Leaving out this variablemakes it look
书看起来比实际更重要
like books are more importantthan they really are.
不考虑父母的智商
Looking at just booksand academic performance
只考虑书和学业成绩
without consideringyour parents’ IQ
是被称为遗漏变量偏差的典型案例
would be a classic case of what’s called omitted variable bias.
忽略父母的智商
We’re omitting your parents’ IQ.
现在 遗漏变量偏差听起来很花哨
Now,omitted variable biasmay sound fancy,
但实际上 这意味着你在分析中遗漏了一个重要因素
but really it just means you left out an important factor in your analysis.
理解这个术语 更重要的是
Understanding this term, and, more importantly,
理解怎样分析处理数据
understanding how to make sense of data,
是现代社会中很重要的能力
is a crucial skill in the modern world.
要了解更多有关其它工具的信息
To learn more about other tools that shed light
了解两个变量之间的关系 请点击此处
on the relationship between two variables, click here.
或者为了测试你对遗漏变量偏差的了解
Or,to test your knowledge on omitted variable bias,
请单击此处
click here.
还要看吗?
Still here?
那就来看看边际革命大学的其它热播视频吧
Check out Marginal RevolutionUniversity’s other popular videos.

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视频概述

介绍经济学中什么是遗漏变量偏差

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

杜若

审核员

审核员Y

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4jhrK03zhs

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