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如果用随机人选替代政治家会怎样? – 译学馆
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如果用随机人选替代政治家会怎样?

What if we replaced politicians with randomly selected people? | Brett Hennig

我想谈一谈可能是最紧要的
I want to talk aboutone of the big questions,
非常重大的一个问题
perhaps the biggest question:
我们应该如何共处?
How should we live together?
一群可能
How should a group of people,
居住在同一个城市
who perhaps live in a city
同一个大陆上 甚至是同一个星球上的人们
or in the continent or even the whole globe,
该如何分配和管理共有资源呢?
share and manage common resources?
我们该怎样制定规则来约束自己呢?
How should we makethe rules that govern us?
这是一个永恒的话题
This has always beenan important question.
在当今时代 这个问题在
And today, I thinkit’s even more important than ever
我们处理日益严峻的不平等的现象
if we want to address rising inequality,
气候变化 难民危机
climate change, the refugee crisis,
等重大问题时尤为重要
just to name a few major issues.
这也是个老生常谈的问题
It’s also a very old question.
人类自进入有组织的社会后
Humans have been askingthemselves this question
就一直在探索这个问题
ever since we livedin organized societies.
比如说这位 柏拉图
Like this guy, Plato.
他认为我们需要仁爱的监管者来
He thought we needed benevolent guardians
为全人类的福祉寻道
who could make decisionsfor the greater good of everyone.
国王和皇后们觉得自己可以当得起这一责任
Kings and queens thoughtthey could be those guardians,
在系列变革中却连自身都难保
but during various revolutions,they tended to lose their heads.
这位 大家可能认识他
And this guy, you probably know.
匈牙利很多年以来
Here in Hungary, you lived for many years
都在尝试着施行他的人类共处理论
under one attempt to implement his answer of how to live together.
这个人回答既暴虐 残忍又没有人性
His answer was brutal, cruel and inhumane.
但是一个不同的 一个完全不同的
But a different answer,a different kind of answer,
被雪藏了大概2000年的答案
which went more or lessinto hibernation for 2,000 years,
最近终于崭露头角了
has had profound recent success.
答案当然就是民主
That answer is, of course, democracy.
如果我们浏览
If we take a quick look
一下民主制的近代史的话
at the modern history of democracy,
它的发展是这样的
it goes something like this.
横轴 是最近200年的历史
Along here, we’re goingto put the last 200 years.
纵轴 是民主制国家的数量
Up here, we’re going to putthe number of democracies.
这是趋势图 最重要的一点是
And the graph does this, the important point of which,
民主制国家数量的巨大涨幅
is this extraordinary increase over time,
这也是20世纪被称为
which is why the 20th century has been called the century
民主胜利时代的原因
of democracy’s triumph,
正如弗朗西斯•福山1989年所言
and why, as Francis Fukuyama said in 1989,
有人认为我们已经走到了历史的终点
some believe that we have reached the end of history,
我们已经有了解决共处问题的方法
that the question of how to live togetherhas been answered,
那就是自由 民主
and that answer is liberal democracy.
但是我们来分析一下这个主张
Let’s explore that assertion, though.
我想知道你的想法是什么
I want to find out what you think.
我会问大家两个问题
So I’m going to ask you two questions,
如果你赞同的话请举手
and I want you to put your hands up if you agree.
第一个问题是
The first question is:
谁觉得住在民主制的国家好呢?
Who thinks living in a democracy is a good thing?
谁喜欢民主制呢?
Who likes democracy?
如果你觉得有比民主制更好的制度 就不要举手
If you can think of a better system, keep your hands down.
不要担心那些不举手的人们
Don’t worry about thosewho didn’t raise their hands,
我保证他们都很纯良的
I’m sure they mean very well.
第二个问题是 谁认为我们的民主制运行得很好呢?
The second question is: Who thinks our democracies are functioning well?
来吧 观众里怎么着也有一位政治家吧
Come on, there must be one politician in the audience somewhere.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
没有啊
No.
关键是
But my point is,
如果自由民主是历史的终结
if liberal democracy is the end of history,
那么 这里就存在显而易见的悖论或矛盾
then there’s a massive paradoxor contradiction here.
为什么会是民主制呢?
Why is that?
第一个问题是问民主制的理想化
Well, the first questionis about the ideal of democracy,
民主的这些特点都很吸引人
and all these qualitiesare very appealing.
但是实际上 并不起作用
But in practice, it’s not working.
而且这就是第二个问题
And that’s the second question.
我们的政治是破碎的 政治家们是不被相信的
Our politics is broken,our politicians aren’t trusted,
政治系统被强大的既得利益所扭曲
and the political system is distorted by powerful vested interests.
我认为解决这一矛盾有两种方法
I think there’s two waysto resolve this paradox.
其一是舍弃不起作用的民主制
One is to give up on democracy;it doesn’t work.
选择一位忽视民主规则的民粹主义煽动者
Let’s elect a populist demagoguewho will ignore democratic norms,
去击碎自由民主 直接了结这一切
trample on liberal freedoms and just get things done.
其二 就是修补这个破碎的系统
The other option, I think,is to fix this broken system,
让现实更加贴近理想
to bring the practice closer to the ideal
让国会听到社会各界的呼声
and put the diverse voices of societyin our parliaments
为了所有人的长久利益
and get them to make considered,evidence-based laws
制定缜密的 基于事实的法律
for the long-term good of everyone.
这让我想起我顿悟的那一天
Which brings me to my epiphany,
我醍醐灌顶的时刻
my moment of enlightenment.
我希望大家评论一下
And I want you to get critical.
我想要你们扪心自问:“为什么这个行不通?”
I want you to ask yourselves,”Why wouldn’t this work?”
然后再过来和我探讨
And then come and talk to meafterwards about it.
解决的办法是 “抽签”
Its technical name is”sortition.”
一般称其为“随机选择”
But its common name is”random selection.”
这个办法其实非常简单
And the idea is actually very simple:
我们随便选一些人入主国会
we randomly select peopleand put them in parliament.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
大家来思考一下这个方法 好吗?
Let’s think about thatfor a few more minutes, shall we?
试想一下我们选择了你 你
Imagine we chose you and you
和你 你 还有那边儿的你
and you and you and you down there
和一群随机选择的人们
and a bunch of other random people,
让你们在接下来的几年中入主国会
and we put you in our parliament for the next couple of years.
当然了 我们可以
Of course, we could stratify
分层选择 来确保它
the selection to make sure that it matched
在社会经济以及人口统计方面符合国情
the socioeconomic and demographicprofile of the country
而且是真正具代表性的人选
and was a truly representativesample of people.
这些人中会有50%的女性
Fifty percent of them would be women.
大部分是年轻人 有一些老人
Many of them would be young,some would be old,
很少的一部分是富人
a few would be rich,
但大多数人会是你我这样的普通人
but most of them would be ordinary people like you and me.
这将会是全社会的一个微观缩影
This would be a microcosm of society.
这个缩影会模拟群体的思维
And this microcosm would simulatehow we would all think,
前提是我们有时间 信息和好的流程
if we had the time, the information
足以探索到政治决策中的道德难题
and a good process to come to the moral crux of political decisions.
尽管你可能不处于那个群体中
And although you may not be in that group,
但一些和你年纪相仿 性别相同
someone of your age,someone of your gender,
地域相同 背景相似的人们
someone from your locationand someone with your background
将入主国会
would be in that room.
他们所制定的决策是建立在群体的智慧上的
The decisions made by these people would build on the wisdom of crowds.
他们将不仅仅是自己那一部分的总和
They would become morethan the sum of their parts.
他们会成为 有权咨询各领域专家
They would become critical thinkers
而且随时可接触得到的重要思想家 而不是遥不可及的上层人物
with access to experts, who would be on tap but not on top.
他们可证明当遇到广泛的社会问题和难题时
And they could provethat diversity can trump ability
人的多样化比能力更重要
when confronting the wide arrayof societal questions and problems.
它不会是通过民意调查选出的政府
It would not be governmentby public opinion poll.
不会是全民公决选出的政府
It would not be government by referendum.
这些见多识广 深思熟虑的人选会超越社会舆论
These informed, deliberating peoplewould move beyond public opinion
做出公众的决断
to the making of public judgments.
然而 这也有很大的不利之处
However, there would beone major side effect:
如果我们用抽签代替选举
if we replaced elections with sortition
让我们的国会能真正代表社会
and made our parliamenttruly representative of society,
那就是政治家们的末日了
it would mean the end of politicians.
我敢肯定我们都不愿看到那种场面
And I’m sure we’d all bepretty sad to see that.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
有意思的是 随机选择
Very interestingly, random selection was
是古代希腊民主中很关键的一部分
a key part of how democracy was done in ancient Athens.
这个机器 这个设备 就叫抽签箱
This machine, this device,is called a kleroteria.
这是一个古希腊自由选举的装置
It’s an ancient Athenianrandom-selection device.
古希腊绝大多数的政治职务
The ancient Atheniansrandomly selected citizens
都是由随机选出来的公民担任的
to fill the vast majorityof their political posts.
他们知道选举是贵族的手段
They knew that electionswere aristocratic devices.
他们知道职业政客是惹不起的
They knew that career politicianswere a thing to be avoided.
我觉得我们也认识到了这一点了
And I think we know these things as well.
但是比古代采用随机选择更有趣的是
But more interesting thanthe ancient use of random selection
是随机选举在现代的复兴
is its modern resurgence.
对政治上采用随机选择所带来的公正的再发现
The rediscovery of the legitimacyof random selection in politics
在近年来变得很常见
has become so common lately,
例子早已经不胜枚举了
that there’s simply too many examples to talk about.
当然 我也深刻地意识到了
Of course, I’m very awarethat it’s going to be difficult
这在我们的国会中开展的困难性
to institute this in our parliaments.
试一下 你和你的朋友说
Try this — say to your friend,
“我认为我们的国会应该是由随机选择的人们构成的”
“ I think we should populate our parliament with randomly selected people.”
“你逗我呢?
“Are you joking?
如果我的邻居当选了怎么办?
What if my neighbor gets chosen?
那个傻东西连可回收利用的垃圾都分不了类”
The fool can’t evenseparate his recycling.”
可能有些惊人 但是毋庸置疑的是
But the perhaps surprisingbut overwhelming and compelling evidence
现代所有的例子都证明是它确实有效
from all these modern examples is that it does work.
人们承担的责任越大 就越尽责
If you give people responsibility,they act responsibly.
大家不要误会 这并不是一种灵丹妙药
Don’t get me wrong — it’s not a panacea.
问题不是说 这是完美的吗?
The question is not:Would this be perfect?
当然不是
Of course not.
人非圣贤孰能无过
People are fallibly human,
制度扭曲带来的影响将持续存在着
and distorting influences will continue to exist.
问题是 这么做会变得更好吗?
The question is: Would it be better?
对于这个问题 最起码 于我而言
And the answer to that question, to me at least,
绝对会的
is obviously yes.
回到我们刚开始的那个问题
Which gets us backto our original question:
我们该如何共处?
How should we live together?
现在我们有答案了 国会实行抽签制
And now we have an answer: with a parliament that uses sortition.
但是我们要如何从此岸抵达彼岸呢?
But how would we get from here to there?
我们该怎样修补千疮百孔的制度
How could we fix our broken system
并为21世纪重新制定民主呢?
and remake democracy for the 21st century?
我们能做这些事情
Well, there are severalthings that we can do,
也就是正在进行中的一些事儿
and that are, in fact,happening right now.
我们可以试行抽签制
We can experiment with sortition.
将其引入学校 工作场所和其它机构
We can introduce it to schoolsand workplaces and other institutions,
正如民主实践组织在玻利维亚所做之事
like Democracy In Practiceis doing in Bolivia.
我们可以实行政治陪审团及公民集会
We can hold policy juriesand citizens’ assemblies,
就像新民主团体在澳大利亚做的一样
like the newDemocracy Foundationis doing in Australia,
一如杰弗逊中心在美国的所做
like the Jefferson Centeris doing in the US
爱尔兰政府现在在做的那样
and like the Irish governmentis doing right now.
我们可以发起一个呼吁改革的社会运动
We could build a social movementdemanding change,
正如分级基金会在英国的所做
which is what the Sortition Foundationis doing in the UK.
时机成熟了 我们必将开始建立抽签制
And at some point, we should institute it.
第一步可能就是
Perhaps the first step would be
在国会中再开一室
a second chamber in our parliament,
里面都是随机选出来人——
full of randomly selected people —
公民的参议院 你这么说也行
a citizens’ senate, if you will.
在法国有一场公民参议院的运动
There’s a campaignfor a citizens’ senate in France
在苏格兰也有
and another campaign in Scotland,
它也当然可以在这儿 匈牙利实行
and it could, of course, be doneright here in Hungary.
这有点像特洛伊木马
That would be kind of like a Trojan horse right
直捣政府的黄龙
into the heart of government.
然后 一旦现行制度的漏洞
And then, when it becomes impossible to patch
变得无法修补之后
over the cracks in the current system,
我们必须前进 用抽签代替选举
we must step up and replaceelections with sortition.
我对此充满了希望
I have hope.
在匈牙利的制度被建立起来
Here in Hungary,systems have been created,
然后 早在过去就被瓦解和更迭后
and systems have beentorn down and replaced in the past.
改革必将发生
Change can and does happen.
只是时间和方式的问题罢了
It’s just a matter of when and how.
谢谢大家
Thank you.
(匈牙利语)谢谢大家
(Hungarian) Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

一项壮举 号召让随机选择的公民入主国会

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUee1I69nFs

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