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What if the World Ended?

毋庸置疑 原子弹的阴影笼罩着我们每个人的生活
There is no denying that the shadow of the atom bomb has been across all our lives.
维索斯 能见到你真是太好了我先赶紧把这个脱了 …… 我们得用这个避免紫外线伤害
Vsauce, it is good to see you. Here just let me take this off real quick…gotta protect yourself from the UV rays.
我是杰克 记得吗 咱们曾经在 “你能在辐射中幸存吗?” 见过
…it’s Jake, remember, we were together in Could You Survive
一点放射尘 别担心 没事 我会把这个视频的链接放在内容标签里
a Fallout. No worries, it’s fine, I’ll put a link to that video down in the description.
哈 我现在像是在”油管”上说话一样更何况网络也还是个问题 但是至少
Huh, here I am talking like YouTube, let alone the internet is still a thing. But at least
我们在辐射中活下来了 然后就活在这一推烂摊子里。 你知道外面发生了什么吧?
we survived the fallout…so we could live in this. You know what’s happening out there
啊 别担心 咱们这就开车 有人说战争即地狱 但也并不意味着
right? Ah, don’t worry I’ll fill you in. They say war is hell, but that doesn’t mean the
战争结束了情况就会好些 我需要开罐器 你有吗 咱们弄一个去
aftermath is any better. I need a can opener. Do you have a can opener? Lets get a can opener!
现在 我们了解了核辐射的影响 不过 咱们来想想别的吧
Now, we know the effects of nuclear fallout but let’s consider something, which won’t
be hard given what we’ve been through: a relatively small nuclear war breaks out between
小型的核战争 100个核弹落下来,而只有不到1%的人幸存下来,两千万人
two large countries, 100 nukes are dropped, less than 1% that exist…20 million people
将在一瞬间死亡 “砰”的一下挂掉了 听起来人很多 但在这场大战中
would immediately die. BOOM – gone. And that sounds like a lot, but in the grand scheme
两千万死亡人数 或者说20百万人的死亡(百万人的死亡是核武器杀伤力的计算单位) 也不过是地球人口的3%
of things 20 million deaths, or 20 Megadeaths, is only 3% of Earth’s population.
不过还有更糟糕的 不是爆炸 也不是核泄漏
But something worse happens. And it isn’t the bombs, it isn’t the fallout, it’s
而是幸存下来的超过99%的人要面对的 也就是我们现在经历的
what’s left for the over 99% of the population that survives…what we are experiencing right
now…Nuclear Winter.
核冬天是个相当新的概念 约34年前被提出
Nuclear Winter is a fairly recent term, having been coined about 34 years ago. In the early
在80年代早期 一支科学家队伍成立 成员有:Turco、Toon、Ackerman、Pollack和Sagan
1980s, a team of scientists were assembled: Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack and Sagan.
他们共同写了份科学论文 ,名为“核战争对全球气候的影响”
Together they wrote the scientific paper “Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War”.
并且他们发现核战争可能是毁灭性的 但它留下的阴霾更严重
And they discovered that nuclear war might be devastating, but the shadow it casts is
much larger, much more suffocating.
试想一下整座城市淹没在火光中 成千上万的大楼、工厂、公园和森林被大火吞噬
Imagine entire cities in flames, hundred of thousands of buildings, factories, parks and
烟雾被太阳加热升温 上浮至上层大气
forests burning. All that smoke is heated by the sun, lofted into the upper stratosphere,
烟雾粒子将笼罩地球 现在我要告诉你们一个振奋人心的事实
and the particles would blanket the Earth. I’d love to give you an uplifting fact right
阳光中有射线放出 但是不幸的是大部分会被挡住
now, some ray of sunshine, but unfortunately all that soot would block enough sunlight
令天空长时间一片灰暗 这还只是开始
that skies would be overcast, everywhere, for a long time. And that’s just the start.
显然 这方面的大量调查是基于气象模型进行的 因为在现实中
Obviously, a lot of this research was based on climate models because the only way to
test this theory in the real world would involve actually creating a Nuclear Winter and we
我们现在知道结果了 但一些以前发生的事件同样
know how well that turned out…but there have been events in the past that were used
能帮助我们推测出结果 其中一个就在140000000英里外
to help determine what would happen. And one of them was 140,000,000 miles away.
1971年 第一艘登陆另一星球的飞船——美国的水手9号飞船
In 1971, the U.S. Mariner 9 spacecraft, the first vehicle to orbit another planet, arrived
登陆火星 并发现整个星球完全被沙尘暴覆盖 科学家们发现
at Mars to find it completely covered in a global dust storm. What scientists discovered
沙尘被带到高空大气层 吸收阳光热量
was the dust had been brought high into the atmosphere, absorbing the sunlight and preventing
阻止它们落到地上 这使得表面温度达到
a lot of it from hitting the surface. This brought the surface temperature down tens
of degrees (put in F).
但这一切发生在遥远的星球上 因此很难想象
But that happened far away on a completely different planet, so it is hard to try and
这儿温度的剧烈下降 居然是由于沙尘一样细小之物
imagine temperatures dropping so drastically here because of something as small as dust
阻挡了阳光 但这不需要我们 或者研究者去猜测了
blocking out sunlight. Except we don’t have to imagine, nor did researchers, because it
因为以前也发生过 在200多年前
had happened before …over 200 years ago.
1815年印尼坦博拉火山爆发 火山灰遮挡了阳光
The Tambora volcano erupted in 1815 in Indonesia. That eruption blotted out the sun and produced
导致全年气温达到0.5摄氏度 0.5度看起来不太显眼 但影响很大
global cooling of about 0.5 degree C for a year. Half a degree seems pretty insignificant…but
it wasn’t. 1816 was called the “The Year without a Summer” or “Eighteen Hundred
“1800冻死人年” 在纽英伦每个月都发生霜冻 冻死了作物
and Froze to Death.” In New England, frosts happened every month killing the crops, and
而且 这竟发生在夏天 粮食价格飙升 农户也因此
this was during the summer. The price of grain shot up, and with that farmers tried selling
竭力把牲畜卖出去 因为他们已无力承担饲料的价格 大批人开始迁徙到
all of their livestock since they could no longer feed them, and a mass migration began
美国中西部 为了逃离气温变化的影响 欧洲股市
to the Midwest of America to flee the effects of the temperature change. In Europe the stock
遭遇重创 饥荒大肆蔓延
market collapsed and widespread famine occurred.
利用这些信息 他们能够分析气温剧变的后果
Using that information, they were able to conclude what would happen but that study
但这个研究是在冷战时期 当时存在着更大的威胁
was done at the height of the Cold War when a full on global Nuclear War was much more
全球性的核战 记得我让你们想想一百核弹攻击的后果吗
of a threat. Remember when I asked you to consider an attack with 100 nukes? Well that
这是很有可能的 并且很可能发生在当下 在2009年
would be a lot more likely and a lot more relevant to our current situation so, in 2009,
研究人员用一份原始报告作为框架 评估了
researchers used the original report as a framework and estimated the effects of a war
100个核弹在用于广岛战争中将会带来什么影响 即使相对比较小的数量
that used 100 nukes the size of Hiroshima’s. Even with that relatively small number, it
它也能带来全球毁灭 它们始于小粒子
would still be globally devastating and it all starts with tiny particles.
经过至少五次裂变就可以达到1100万英镑 因为爆炸产生的火会制造烟雾
At least 5 Teragrams, about 11 billion pounds, of smoke would be produced because of the
不超过两天 这些小粒子就会在对流层达到7.5英里
fires started by the bombs. Within two days those tiny particles would rise 7.5 miles
太阳会给它们提供热量 它们会继续上升
into our Troposphere. The sun would heat them up and they would continue to rise. After
49 days the smoke would reach a height of 31 miles and fill the Stratosphere. By this
point, the soot would cover the majority of the planet, blocking sunlight and making the
skies overcast.
Unfortunately, precipitation never reaches the stratosphere so the particles wouldn’t
被洗刷掉 提到了雨水 全球将会减少百分之十
be washed away. And speaking of precipitation, there would be a 10% decrease of it worldwide
因为缺少阳光 蒸发和水循环都成了问题
since the lack of sun would cause problems with evaporation and the natural water cycle.
就拿我们所了解的火星和火山来说 阳光被阻隔
Taking what we learned from Mars and from the Tambora volcano, the sunlight being blocked
将会使全球温度降低1.25度 寒冷和缺少阳光很容易
would drop global temperatures by 1.25 degrees C. The cold and lack of sunlight would obviously
对农业造成危害 颗粒无收 牲畜也会死亡其他一些东西
be bad for agriculture, with crops and farm animals dying off. But something else would
也是毁灭性的存在 比如紫外线辐射
also be devastating to that…ultraviolet radiation.
尽管地球表面会变冷 同温层的烟灰会
Even though the surface of the Earth would be colder, the black smoke in the stratosphere
吸收太阳光 将他们加热到超过50度 因为这些 二氧化氮
would absorb the sunlight, heating it up by more than 50 degrees C. Because of that, nitrogen
将会被进一步破坏臭氧层 超过17个月 我们将会从这样
oxides would be lofted further up, destroying our ozone. Over 17 months we’d go from this,
to this.
Not only would the UV radiation be incredibly damaging to plant life but it is incredibly
对我们的破坏也是难以置信的 我现在不穿很多层衣服只是觉得覆盖我的皮肤很有意思
damaging to us. I’m not wearing this many layers and covering my skin just for fun.
It would take as little as 6 minutes for me to get severely burned outside because of
这就是我为什么需要罐头开启器的原因了 我的意思是并非因为晒伤 是因为
exposure. Which is why I need a can opener…I mean, not because of the sunburns but because
这里没有作物, 没有新鲜食物 只有罐头 粮食储备只有全球人口两个月的量
there are no crops, there are no fresh foods. Only cans. There is enough grain stored to
在这之后 一亿人将被饿死
feed the planet’s population for 2 months. After that…1 billion people could starve
一亿!那是全人类人口的13% 13%的活人就…没了
to death. 1 billion. That’s 13% of entire population, 13% everyone alive, that they will just…be gone
这让我想起了诗人艾伦特 “这将是世界末日
This reminds me of poet T.S Eliot’s The Hollow Men, “This is the way the world ends,
不会发出很大声音 只是低低的抽泣“
not with a bang but a whimper.”
十年后 阴云将会消散 烟灰将会降落下来
After 10 years the cloud would be lifted, the soot would have finally fallen from above
温度将会重新升高我们还剩下了什么 你可以说
and temperatures would start to rise. And what would be left of us? You could call it
这是世界末日 你会说一切希望都破灭了你也可能说些别的……
the end of the world. You could say all hope is lost. Or you could say something else…
我们现在住的地方没有被破坏 我们不在废墟中 但一切在等待着重建
Where we stand is not destroyed, we are not in ruins but in something waiting to be built.
等待重新开始 废墟之上我们可以重建美丽
Waiting to begin again. From these ashes we can rise and create beauty. The crumbling
破碎的墙壁不是我们失败的展示 但是却给我们上了深刻的一课
walls are not a representation of our failures but a reminder of the lessons we have learned.
所以我们要继续前进 不是我们需要做而是我们不得不做
So we continue on. Not because we want to but because we have to. In the words of Carl
卡尔萨根说过 我们要有新的觉悟
Sagan: “A new consciousness is developing which
看到地球是一个有机体 并且意识到战争是注定的
sees the earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself is doomed.
One of the great revelations of the age of space exploration is the image of the earth
独一无二的 我们只有一个星球 一如既往感谢收看
finite and lonely. We are one planet.” And, as always, thanks for watching.