You decide to go out and do some shopping.
你决定外出购物
All you really need is some bread, milk,
你真正需要的是一些面包 牛奶
cereal, some toothpaste and some toilet paper.
麦片 牙膏 厕纸之类的东西
Ok, so ,first things first,you have to load up your wheelbarrow with bills,
那么 首先你要把你的手推车装满钞票
like really stack the thing, because your currency has lost its value.
真的需要装满 因为你的货币已经贬值了
This happened in the 1920s in Germany
20世纪20年代德国发生了这样的情况
and people did quite literally go shopping with wheelbarrows full of cash.
人们的确用装满现金的手推车去购物
It was down to something called hyperinflation, and it made the German mark pretty much worthless.
这归因于恶性通货膨胀 德国马克也因此大幅贬值
Back then, one dollar was worth 1 trillion marks.
那时 1美元相当于1万亿德国马克
Could this ever happen to the dollar,
美元会发生这种情况吗？
and what would happen if it did?
如果美元贬值会发生什么呢？
That’s what we’ll find out today.
那就是我们今天的主题
First of all, this hasn’t just happened in Germany.
首先 这不仅仅在德国发生过
Currency collapses have happened in Argentina,
货币崩盘曾发生在阿根廷
Ukraine, Iceland, Hungary, Zimbabwe and Venezuela.
乌克兰 冰岛 匈牙利 津巴布韦和委内瑞拉
It basically involves a country’s currency being deemed as having very little value.
它基本上意味着人们认为一个国家的货币价值很小
There’s no trust in that currency, and so it becomes almost worthless.
人们不信任这个货币 因此它几乎变得一文不值
So, if we take a hypothetical situation in which the dollar suddenly started losing its value
所以 如果我们假设美元突然开始贬值的情况
what would follow is anyone who owns dollars would want to sell them
随之而来的就是任何拥有美元的人会想出售美元
but no one of course would want to buy them.
但是 当然啦 没有人想购买美元
People would start panicking.
人们会开始恐慌
Foreign governments that owned dollars in the form of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds,
以国库券 票据 债券等形式拥有美元的外国政府
would want to get rid of them.
会想处理掉美元
Investors would also scramble to off-load their dollars.
投资者也会争先恐后地转手他们的美元
This would be the beginning of a collapse, and the worst possible scenario is
这将是崩溃的开始 最坏的可能就是
the dollar becoming pretty much worthless.
美元变得几乎一文不值
If the dollar was worthless, imported goods would cost more.
如果美元不值钱 进口商品将花费更多美元
When imported goods start costing more, the price of things goes up.
进口商品花钱更多 物价就会上涨
This is called inflation.
这就是通货膨胀
So, when you have hyperinflation, a loaf of bread might cost a million dollars.
当出现恶性通货膨胀时 一条面包可能花费一百万美元
It sounds a bit crazy, but it’s happened in other countries.
这听起来有点疯狂 但已经在其他国家发生过
People might then start getting paid millions and millions, just so they can buy things.
那时人们可能会花费数百万美元才能购买商品
Outside the country, the currency is down on its knees.
在其他国家 美元也贬值了
There are two scenarios in which this could happen to the dollar.
如果美元发生贬值 将有两种可能的情况
Before a total collapse, the dollar would have to weaken somehow
在彻底崩溃前 美元必须以某种方式贬值
which is kinda the start of the crisis.
这也是危机的开端
It’s the match that lights the fire.
如同导火索
The dollar has declined before,
美元经历过贬值
and in the years between 2002 and 2018, it lost 6 percent of its value.
在2002年至2018年间 美元贬值了百分之六
That basically made it weaker,
那基本上让美元更弱了
and so you could get more dollars when buying them with another currency
当你用另一种货币购买美元时 你能得到更多美元
such as the Euro.
比如欧元
You might ask why it lost its value during that time period,
你可能会问 为什么美元在那个时期贬值呢
and the reason was because the U.S. debt went up from $6 trillion to $22 trillion.
因为美国的债务从6万亿上升到22万亿
At the end of 2019 it was $23.2 trillion.
2019年底为23.2万亿美元
The dollar could become weaker if the government decided to weaken the dollar,
如果政府决定削弱美元 美元可能会更加疲软
so it could pay off its debts.
这样政府就可以偿还债务
There’s another reason why the dollar could suddenly lose lots of its value.
美元会突然贬值的另一个原因是
As you may know, the dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
你也许知道 美元是世界储备货币
That’s good for the strength of the dollar
其他国家使用美元作为世界货币
since countries use it as a global currency.
对于美元的霸权地位是有好处的
In fact, about a half of border to border transactions are made with the U.S. dollar.
事实上 大约一半的双边贸易都是以美元结算的
For this reason, the Central Banks of the world must have a reserve of dollars.
因此 各国的中央银行必须要有美元储备
This includes entities such as the U.S. Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England,
包括美联储 英格兰银行
the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and more.
日本央行 欧洲央行等
About 61 percent of foreign reserves are in U.S. dollars.
大约有61%的外汇储备是美元
The Euro is the next favored currency,
第二受欢迎的货币是欧元
but it only accounts for about 30 percent of foreign currency reserves held in Central banks.
但欧元大约仅占各国央行外汇储备的30%
Okey dokey, that’s all fine and dandy, but what if the dollar loses more value
这很好 但如果美元大幅贬值
and countries holding it start thinking, hey, our currency is better
持有美元的国家开始想 “我们的货币更好
and can be trusted more than your dollar.
比美元更值得信赖” 将会怎么样呢？
What if China said, look, the yuan should be the world’s reserve currency.
假如中国说人民币应该是世界储备货币
What if the EU says the Euro is the top dog.
欧盟说欧元是最有话语权的货币 将会如何呢？
If all these countries are holding so many dollars and it starts to weaken
如果这些国家持有大量美元 而美元开始贬值
they would be right to be just a little bit concerned.
他们会一点担心是必然的
A lot of the U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve and investors,
大量的美国债务被美国政府 美联储和投资者持有
but around six trillion dollars is owned by other countries.
但是有6万亿左右的美元被其他国家持有
The biggest owners of U.S. debt are China and Japan.
美国债务的最大持有国是中国和日本
These debts are in the form of those treasuries we just talked about.
这些债务是以我们刚谈过的国库券的形式存在的
So, what if China and Japan just decided to dump their treasuries and cash out?
如果中国和日本决定卖出国库券并变现会发生什么呢？
This would cause widespread panic, but would that really happen?
这会导致广泛的恐慌 但那真的会发生吗？
Well, if they did sell their dollars and the dollar lost value,
如果他们真的卖出持有的美元并且美元贬值
they would be in trouble.
他们也将陷入困境
That’s because their major consumer is the USA.
因为他们的主要消费者是美国
If they do something that puts the dollar into a decline,
如果他们做了让美元贬值的事
how will America be able to buy their products?
美国将如何有能力购买他们的产品呢？
It would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
这就像搬起石头砸自己的脚
As one expert put it, why would you want to make your best customer go bankrupt.
如专家所说 你为什么想让你最好的客户破产呢？
But just for the sake of today’s show, let’s say China and Japan did dump their dollars
但在今天节目中我们假设 中国和日本的确抛售了美元
and others followed, and the dollar decline went into full swing.
其他国家也紧随其后 美元贬值如火如荼
Globally people would be off-loading their dollars and buying more stable currencies
全世界的人们将抛售手中的美元并买入更稳定的货币
such as the Euro.
比如欧元
Or, they might put their money into commodities or something such as gold.
或者他们可能购买商品或黄金之类的东西
This would lead to interest rates in the U.S. going up and it would lead to inflation.
这会导致美国的利率上升并产生通货膨胀
Ok, so with a weak dollar the U.S. could export lots of stuff at a cheap price
由于美元疲软 美国能以低廉的价格出口商品
but over time the inflation and high interest rates would cause trouble.
但是久而久之 通货膨胀和高利率会导致麻烦
Then you’ve got a recession on your hands, and at worst, a depression.
然后你就会面临经济衰退 甚至是经济大萧条
But what about you during all this turmoil.
在这场动荡之中你怎么办呢？
Well, if you’ve been clever, you’ve diversified investments not attached to the dollar.
如果你足够聪明 你会分散投资 不依附美元
Hey, you might even have a bit of gold
你甚至可能会持有一点黄金
maybe even a great big pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.
甚至找到宝藏拥有一大桶金子
You might have transferable skills and be able to do business in other countries.
你可能有转移投资能力 能在其他国家做生意
You should probably have a passport, too, because you might want to travel
你很可能还需要一个护照 因为你想去旅游
and find work elsewhere.
或者在别处找工作
If we look at the Great Depression of 1929 in the U.S.,
如果我们回顾1929年的美国经济大萧条
unemployment increased by 25 percent
失业人数增长了25%
and the number of homeless people also increased.
无家可归者的数量也增加了
Housing prices went down 30 percent and lots of banks failed.
房价下跌了30% 大量银行倒闭
International trade was down 65 percent.
国际贸易下降了65%
What also happened is agricultural products lost their value
与此同时 农产品失去了价值
and farmers in the Midwest suffered what was called the Dust Bowl Drought.
中西部农民遭受了沙尘暴干旱
Average incomes all over the U.S. dropped by 40 percent,
美国平均收入下降了40%
and some of the worst hit became homeless or lived in slums.
在一些受灾最严重的地区 人们无家可归或者住在贫民窟
In 1928 the unemployment rate was 3.2 percent
1928年的失业率是百分之三点二
and five years later it was a massive 24.9 percent.
五年之后高达百分之二十四点九
It was a grand old mess
它是一个大烂摊子
and made the lives of many American’s miserable.
导致了许多美国人悲惨的生活
The good news is, we don’t see this happening and neither do economic experts.
好消息是我们和经济专家都没有看到这种情况发生
The global implications would be too catastrophic
如果作为储备货币的美元从现在起不再流通
and the dollar as the reserve currency isn’t going anywhere for now..
对于全球来说将是灾难性的影响
We think you now need to know a bit more about the U.S. debt,
我们认为你需要了解更多关于美国债务的信息
so we advise you to watch one of these videos.
所以我们建议你看看其中一个视频
Head to, “What If The US Paid Off Its Debt?”
链接 “如果美国偿清了债务会怎么样”
or take a look at this, “How Can the US Keep a Trillion Dollar Debt?”
或者看看这个 “美国怎样维持1万亿美元的债务”