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如果明天股票崩盘了会怎样? – 译学馆
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如果明天股票崩盘了会怎样?

What If The Stock Market Crashed Tomorrow?

人们称之为“郁金香狂潮”
They called it tulip mania.
每个荷兰男女和小孩都渴望一朵异国花
Every Dutch man, woman and child wanted one, and wanted one badly.
他们不惜用一切仅仅换取一朵异国花
They traded anything and everything for justone exotic plant.
狂潮从1634年持续到1637年 但它不会再持续
The frenzy continued from 1634 to 1637; however, it would not last.
热情最终消退 郁金香价值不再
Interest eventually declined, and with it,the flower’s value.
郁金香股票投资者很快发现自己身无分文
Many who had invested in tulip stock soon found themselves penniless,
经济随之陷入了多年的萧条
sending the economy into a years-long depression.
荷兰的这件事证明了 股票崩盘并非什么新鲜事
As the Dutch can attest, stock market crashesare nothing new. However,
但是 它们发生的原因和影响千差万别
their causes and effects can vary.
目前为止 美国史上发生了四次
There have been four major stock market crashes so far
具有大型股票崩盘
in America’s history.
第一次股票崩盘就是1929年那次
The first of these was the crash of 1929.
在股票崩盘之前
It was preceded by the booming economy
是经济繁荣的20年代
of the ‘ 20s when everyone was snatching up
每个人都要买豪宅和时尚汽车
fancy homes and trendy automobiles and
与此同时 一些投机者
those playing the market were borrowing obscene
借来巨款
amounts of money.
鉴于上述情况
Due to these conditions,
股票猛涨 在1929年8月达到峰值
markets soared, reaching their highest point in August of 1929.
但即便如此 还是有一场灾难即将来临的迹象
But even then, there were hints of an impendingcatastrophe.
生产开始逐渐减少
Production had begun to taper off,
失业率逐步上升普遍背负巨额债务
unemployment levels were on the rise, and widespread debt
构成了灾难的前兆
along with countless loans combined in a recipefor disaster.
1929年10月29日后来被称为“黑色星期二”
October 29, 1929 became known as Black Tuesday.
这是弥漫着恐慌的一天
It was a day of widespread panic.
投资者的交易额高达数百万股
Investors traded millions of shares,
导致了数十亿美元的损失
resulting in a loss of billions
和许多投资者的破产
and the bankruptcy of many.
余波将本就已摇摇欲坠的美国经济
Its aftermath pushed an already faltering America head-first
直接推向众所周知 最糟的经济衰退期
into the worst known economic fallout of its time.
由此 经济大萧条开始了
Thus, began the Great Depression.
它的影响是毁灭性的
Its effects were devastating;
到1932年 股票下跌了89%
by 1932 stocks had fallen 89% and had
所有股票完全失去了它们的价值
all but completely lost their value.
截至1933年 失业人口达到30%
By 1933, 30% of the population was unemployed,
1500万人挣扎求生
leaving 15 million struggling to survive.
多亏了罗斯福总统
Thanks to President Franklin D. Roosevelt
和二战所创造的工作机会
and the jobs created by the second World War,
美国经济才最终得以恢复
the economy eventually recovered.
然而 经济大萧条持续了十多年
However, the Depression had lasted more than a decade.
第二次著名的崩盘发生在1987年
The Second notable crash was in 1987,
同样发生在十月份 被称为
again in October and was dubbed
“黑色星期一”
Black Monday the 2nd.
它和“黑色星期二”一样
It was caused in many of the same ways
成因很多 但还有一个新因素
as its namesake with a new contributing factor:
那就是科技
technology.
在1987年10月19日
On October 19, 1987,
投资者开始疯狂地抛售他们的股票
as investors began to frantically sell their stock, they were able
而得益于电脑的使用 他们能以空前的速度进行抛售
to do so at unprecedented rates thanks to the use of computers.
等这些交易完成后
When all was said and done,
股票跌幅在一天之内达到了23%
the market had sunk 23 % in a single day.
这是股票市场历史上的最大跌幅
It was the biggest drop in stock market history. Overall,
股票市场总共损失了数万亿美元
the market had lost a trillion dollars.
作为参照
To put this into perspective,
1929年 市场损失了140亿美元
the market was out $ 14 billion in 1929. However,
但不同于上次崩盘
unlike the earlier crash,
美联储对经济的干预
the economy of 1987 recovered quickly when the Federal
使1987年的经济得以迅速恢复
Reserve intervened.
1999年到2000年美国发生了第三次大规模崩盘
Technology was again a culprit
科技又一次成为罪魁祸首
in the third major stock market crash of 1999 to 2000.
顾名思义
As indicated by its name,
这次经济危机远不止一天
this crash was much longer than a one-day affair.
随着90年代网络公司
Problems began with the rise
和世通公司 地球城 AOL
of the dot.com market and technological giants such as Globe.com, GeoCities,
等科技巨头的出现 问题也随之而来
and AOL in the ‘90s.
这些公司的股价起初飙升
Stocks in these companies initially soared,
远远超过了其真正价值
far surpassing their true value, only to be
以至于股票被投资者纷纷抛售 价格跌至历史新低
sold off by investors and plummet to all-timelows.
世通公司股票在上市当天就从9美元涨到了87美元
Globe.com shares, though offered at $ 9, were bought up at $ 87 on opening day;
但两年后
2 years later
股价却跌至不足1美元
they were purchased for less than one dollar.
这并不是唯一受到影响的科技巨头
It was not the only tech giant effected;
投资者们同样忙于抛售
investors were in a hurry to sell
与之相关的所有股票
any and all related stock.
结果纳斯达克指数在一年内
As a consequence, the Nasdaq would fall
从5000点跌至1000点
from 5,000 to 1,000 in the span of a year.
这次危机后
After this crash investors learned to
投资者开始质疑科技公司的稳定性
critique tech company stability and exercise more caution
并在投资时变得更加谨慎
when making a purchase.
最后一次重要的股票崩盘是2008年那次
Last but not least was the crash of 2008,
其造成的经济衰退
leading to a recession and just narrowly avoiding
差点就导致全面崩溃
a full-on collapse.
这一次经济危机起源于
This time problems arose beginning in 2006 with a decline
2006年房价的下降 以及
in housing prices and an increase
无法偿还贷款业主的增多
in homeowners unable to pay their mortgage.
这使得一些金融机构倒闭
This resulted in the bankruptcy of severalfinancial institutions.
在这种情况下
In this instance,
国会介入给一些银行提供了紧急援助
Congress intervened with bail-outs for select banks and by manipulating
并操控利率使其维持在了0%左右
interest rates so they stabilized around zeropercent.
两年之后 股票市场虽然发展缓慢
Two years later, the stock market began to make a recovery,
但也出现了复苏
though it did so slowly.
历史表明
As evidenced by history,
崩盘可能只有一天 也可能持续整整一年
crashes can occur in a day or over the span of a year.
经济可能恢复得很快 也可能要十年才能恢复
Their recovery can be quick or draw out fora decade.
经济复苏的原因也各种各样
The reason for recovery varies as well. So,
因此 所有这些让我们不禁思考
what does all of this tell us to expect if, say,
假设明天股票崩盘 会发生些什么
the market were to crash tomorrow?
说实话 我们十分不希望历史重演
Truth be told, we should expect that history would not repeat itself exactly.
如今 崩盘不仅是可能性降低了
The chance of collapse should not only be less likely,
其影响也不会那么严重
but its’effects less severe as well.
原因是现在有恰当的安全机制
The reason for this is that there are now safeguards
以防止发生
in place to prevent disasters on
和以前规模一样大的崩盘
the same scale as in the past.
预防的关键是恐慌 过去是 现在也是
A key to prevention was and still is panic.
由于某些原因 人们开始对市场
It all starts when people feel less uncertain about the market,
不像以往那样感到不确定
due to any of several reasons,
并抛售他们的股票
and sell their stock.
正常情况下 这并不会有很大影响
In normal circumstances, this has no great effect
因为这些股票
as it will be bought up by someone
会被一些更有信心的人接盘
else who has more confidence. However,
但是 在上述四次历史性的崩盘中
as was described by each of the four historical crashes,
人们对这个系统
there was a profound absence
完全没有信心
of any faith in the system at all.
换言之 一旦有人卖出股票
In other words, there were only sellers,
没有人买这些股票来保持平衡
and once sold, no buyers to restore balance.
在这些情况下
In these instances,
一开始少数人的恐慌很快会导致越来越多的恐慌
the first nervous few soon led to more and more nervous individuals,
导致股市彻底陷入混乱
resulting in a free-for-all dump of any andall shares.
这种趋势持续的话 将会有灾难性的后果
When this trend continues it has devastating consequences,
就像1929年的崩盘
as in the crash of 1929, when
股票几乎失去了所有价值 经济持续几年低迷
stock lost almost all of its value and the economy tanked for years.
美国分析以往的崩盘 并从中吸取教训
America has analyzed these past events andlearned from its mistakes. Now,
如今 如果道琼斯指数在下午两点前跌了10%
when the Dow drops by 10 % before 2 in the afternoon,
股市就停止交易一小时
trading stops for an hour.
如果跌了20%
If the Dow drops by 20 % by that same time,
股票将停止交易两小时
trading stops for two hours.
如果跌了30% 股市将终止当天的交易
Trading ends for the day if the Dow declinesby 30%.
这是为了防止出现广泛恐慌和情绪化交易
This is meant to prevent wide-spread panicand emotion-based trading. Further,
此外 若碰到国家层级的灾祸或其他类似事件
if the case of a major national tragedy or other similar event,
股市可能
markets may not open
根本不会开市
at all.
这种情况下 人们很容易做出草率
In these situations, it is easy for many to make rash,
而不明智的决定
unwise decisions that are difficult
其后果难以甚至无法挽回
if not impossible to recover from. However,
虽然这些新程序毫无疑问很有用
although these new procedures are
但依然可能发生
without a doubt beneficial, another large
下一次大的崩盘
crash is possible.
如果这个危机再次发生
If somehow this were still to happen,
会影响到来自各行各业的人们
it would affect many people from every walk of life.
没有股票收益的公司 会想方设法削减支出
Companies without an income from stock would make cuts where they could.
不必要的扩张和进一步的发展将会被搁置
Unnecessary expansion and further developmentwould be on hold.
企业也会设法节省开支 从而导致裁员
Businesses would also try to save which could lead to cuts in the workforce.
失业人口将会飙升
Unemployment numbers would rise.
那些打算退休的人或许会发现他们的“401k计划”被取消
Those hoping to retire might find that theworth of their 401 (k) has declined and they
他们必须工作比期望更长的时间
must work longer than expected. However,
然而历史证据表明
as is evidenced by history,
即便毁灭性的衰退也不会永存
even the most devastating declines don’t last. Eventually,
复苏虽然会比预期来得慢些
there is a recovery,
最终也还是会复苏
although it may be slower than many would wish.
股票触底后 就只能上升
Bottomed out stock prices have nowhere togo but up.
因此
For this reason,
那些持有股票并忍着不卖的投资者
those who hold on to their stocks and resist the urge to sell will be
将会愉快地感受到失而复得的惊喜
pleasantly surprised as they recover theirlosses.
在股市中 看清局势并保持镇定
Riding the tide and remaining calm is imperative
是不可或缺的
when it comes to the stock market.
它能让事情不至于越来越糟
It will also prevent things
也会使复苏有所可能
from getting worse and make the road to recovery possible. So,
那么 你觉得呢
what do you think,
市场有可能再一次完全崩溃吗?
is it likely that the market will completely crash again?
万一真的崩溃了 我们应该恐慌吗?
And if it did, should we panic?
在留言区发表你们的观点吧
Let us know in the comments! Also,
还有记得观看我们的另一个视频
be sure to check out our
《如果美国还清债务会怎么样?》
other video called What if USA paid off its debt!
谢谢您的观看
Thanks for watching, and,
当然 一如既往 别忘了点赞 分享和订阅
as always, don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe.
我们下期再见
See you next time!

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视频概述

美国历史上四次重大经济危机,这些危机带给投资者怎样的启示?

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuCN71pgdqA

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