ADM-201 dump PMP dumps pdf SSCP exam materials CBAP exam sample questions

如果黑死病消灭了欧洲呢? – 译学馆
未登陆,请登陆后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

如果黑死病消灭了欧洲呢?

What if the Black Death Wiped Out Europe?

疾病不是好玩的东西(那当然)
Disease isn’t fun(Hell yeah)
城市曾一度成为人类肮脏的污秽坑
Cities traditionally have been cesspools of human filth,
直至数世纪前 人们才弄懂细菌的作用
nobody knew what germs were until a couple centuries ago.
因此在现代医学出现前 一旦流行病变得严重
So before modern medicine, when pandemics got bad,
人们往往无能为力
they got bad.
一种最恶名远扬的流行病是“黑死病”
And one of the most infamous pandemics was the black death.
这种病曾在10年内 夺去全球范围内
A global outbreak that killed roughly 75 million people
约7500万条生命
in the span of a decade.
记住 那时全球总人口只有4亿5千万
Keep in mind this was out of a global population of only 450 million.
据估计 黑死病传到欧洲时 7年内夺去
When it spread into Europe, It’s estimated at least a third to even half of all Europeans died
至少1/3甚至1/2的人的生命
in around 7 years.
关于致死率的描述令人瞠目结舌
The ramifications of that are astounding.
人们在街上倒下 尸首到处都是
People dying in the streets, bodies everywhere,
家族全军覆没
families completely wiped out.
许多欧洲人坚信黑死病是上帝的启示
Many Europeans truly believed it was the apocalypse
由此就有一个有趣的问题:
and that leaves an interesting question:
假如时光倒流 假如只是对于欧洲而言
what if, in an alternate timeline, it was at least for Europe?
如果黑死病致死人口不是欧洲的一半
What if the “black death” didn’t just kill off half of Europe?
而是达到了哥伦布发现美洲后
What if it reached the levels of the Columbian exchange
杀死印第安人的规模——90%呢?
that wiped out the native Americans 90 percent?
记住这只是简单假设一下
Keep in mind this is simply one possible scenario,
并不是百分百的预测
this is not a 100 percent prediction.
这是“或然历史”的一个实践
It’s an exercise of alternate history.
现在而言90%的死亡率太恐怖
Now 90% is a percentage so horrific.
欧洲不可能再重新振作
Europe can’t possibly bounce back,
因为活下来的人口太少 人口扩增太慢
there are simply so few people to repopulate
就像我们美国的印第安人
that just like the Americas in our timeline
欧洲会成为空旷开阔
Europe becomes an open
人口稀疏的半岛
sparsely populated peninsula.
再不能维持大而复杂的社会群体
they simply can’t sustain large complex societies anymore.
所以时间倒流后会发生什么呢
So what could happen in this alternate scenario?
通常我会告诉不熟悉历史的人们一些我要讲内容的背景
Usually I teach some context to catch people up who aren’t familiar with the history,
但是人们对于黑死病已耳熟能详
but the black death is so commonly taught
不需要再解释什么
that there really isn’t much context needed to be said.
在我们的时间轴上 亚洲老鼠带来了瘟疫
In our timeline, the plague spread when rats from Asia came over,
老鼠身上的跳蚤受到感染
fleas on those rats had disease,
跳蚤叮人
fleas bit the people,
人咬人 最后变成中世纪僵尸
poeple bit people, medieval zombies,
开玩笑 最后人们都死了
just joking, everyone died.
不对 是一半的人死了 除了波兰每个地方都有死人
Well, half of everyone died, everywhere except for Poland.
我们假设的时间
In this alternate scenario
是1360年 是神秘的黑死病在欧洲
it is 1360, 20 years since the mysterious
肆虐的第二十年
plague ravaged through Europe.
这二十年间 黑死病横扫欧洲每个城市和小镇
In this timeline, the disease swept through every European city and town.
黑死病仍是黑死病
There isn’t anything very different about this alternate plague,
只是比美国历史上的影响更大
It’s just far larger than in our timeline.
欧洲死掉了90%的人
90 percent of Europe’s people are entirely wiped out.
到1360年 只剩下7百万人口
By 1360, there are only 7,000,000 Europeans left,
比如今纽约城的人口还少
a population smaller than New York City,
他们所处的土地面积却相当于美国国土
spanning the scale of the United States.
当人口密度过低
When a population density is that low,
这片土地就会相对平静
the lands are relatively quiet,
人们再不能维持复杂的封建社会
and people can’t sustain these complex feudal societies anymore
存活下来的城市退化成村庄大小
Any city that survives shrinks to the size of a village,
荒野逐渐占领罗马
wilderness slowly takes back areas like Rome,
佛罗伦萨 伦敦等地
Florence, London.
原先的建筑大多变成了废墟
The vast amounts of the buildings are largely ruins,
是曾有人在这居住过的空洞的证词
empty testaments to the people that once live there.
和埃及金字塔和玛雅金字塔相似
Similar to the pyramids of Egypt or the Maya,
任何幸存下来的人都是在波兰中部
any native who survived has lived in small isolated
小而孤立的地区
pockets in Central Poland,
西方文明的确死去了
western civilization is effectively dead.
基督教是一种边缘宗教
Christianity is a fringe religion
天主教和东正教 如果真正存在过
Catholicism and orthodoxy, if they do exist,
也仅仅囿于或在小的宗教圈外
is either abroad or within the small polish bubble.
这是最好的情况了
That’s the best case,
至于受到黑死病肆虐的更边缘的宗教
as for coastal regions who bore the full brunt of the plague,
人数下降的更多
They are entirely depopulated.
欧洲南部居民不复存在
No more Southern Europeans.
人口数量 假如有的话
And in really any size, any sizable population is
都只在更遥远的北方
farther up North.
在这段时间内 欧洲就是一个巨大的权利真空
Europe in this alternate timeline is this giant power vacuum.
再没有帝国组建军队 保卫领土
There is no kingdoms to raise an army and defend lands,
于是欧洲大片的耕地和温和的气候
so Europe with its vast fields and temperate climate
吸引了临近国的注意
seems pretty attractive to neighboring powers.
伊斯兰世界从自身的病疫中恢复过来
The Islamic world recovers from its own plague
尽管花了数十年
even if it took a few decades.
穆斯林政权开始向欧洲北部
It would only be a matter of time before Muslim powers start sending
开放的荒野地区进军 只是时间问题
excursions into the open wilderness of the North
看吧
Fine we will see,
接下来的数世纪都是伊斯兰力量殖民欧洲的历史
the follow couple centuries marks an age of islamic colonization of Europe.
伊斯兰也不是大团结
It isn’t a large united effort
而是有好几股不同的力量:
It’s by multiple different groups:
非洲摩尔人和阿拉伯人扩张到法国
the Moors and Arabs expand into France,
土耳其人穿越到希腊
the turkish Ottomans cross into Greece,
洗劫了人烟稀少的康斯坦丁堡
sack a depopulated Constantinople,
再继续向欧洲南部移动
and move on to Southern Europe,
似乎沿着这片土地可以扩张至德国南部
is likely this territory could reach southern Germany
哦不 那是维也纳
That’ll Vienna.
往上看 蒙古铁骑
Looked up, the Mongol tribes
开始从亚洲中部出发 夺取他们之前失去的
then barge in from Central Asia to seize the territory of Russia
被俄国占领的土地
which they’ve previously lost.
我们只是在做一个有趣的假设 并无重要意义
This is just an interesting speculation and they aren’t too important.
值得注意的是 欧洲成为无数伊斯兰群体间相互争斗的战场
What should be noted is that Europe becomes a battleground between numerous islamic groups
尽管土耳其人 阿拉伯人 蒙古人
Turkish Arab and Mongol,
各有不同
even with their differences,
但他们都属伊斯兰教——
they all share Islam——
这一世界性大教
the leading dominant faith in the world.
基督教和犹太教如今只有碎片
Christianity and Judaism now simply fragments,
中东地区的欧洲已经融为一体
Europe in the middle east has now merged into one single form,
欧洲人未来的命运会是怎样的呢?
what is the fate of the Europeans themselves?
他们不能总相互隔绝
They can’t always live in isolation.
数世纪以来 活下来的欧洲人
Over the centuries, any Europeans really left,
要么住在肮脏的环境中
either live in impoverished squalor
要么迁徙至穆斯林城市
or migrate into Muslim cities.
一些转而信仰伊斯兰教
Some convert to Islam,
一些人没有改变信仰
others don’t.
这取决于他们之后选择的信仰的包容性大小
It really depends on how tolerant the region is they migrate to,
即使如此 欧洲人在穆斯林城市还是明显的少数族群
even then Europeans are simply a distinct minority in the new Muslim cities.
许多世纪过去了 旧城已焕然一新
As centuries passed, old cities are renovated,
当欧洲人口再次增长 新的入侵者又开始迁入
new occupants migrate in as the population of Europe rises once again.
欧洲大陆在文化方面种群方面仍是分离的
The continent though is culturally and ethnically divided.
西边是阿拉伯人 东边是土耳其人和蒙古人
Arabs in the west, Turks and Mongols in the east,
每个团体都开始寻求新的领地
and to either decide to sail off to find new lands say,
美洲大陆?不大可能
America, most likely not,
欧洲人民想找到一条新的贸易路线的一个主要原因
one of the major reasons Europe wanted to find a new trade route
是因为他们
was because they were so
被土耳其人孤立了
isolated by the Turks.
而在这段假设的时间段 欧洲并非完全孤立
Since in this alternative timeline this region isn’t really blocked,
这样就没有理由航行过大西洋
then there’s no reason to sail across the Atlantic.
不要指望中国来殖民它
Don’t expect the Chinese to colonize it either,
我得说 不管你们有多少人希望如此
no matter how many of you were hoping I’d say.
中国在这段时间却开始了一段奇怪的闭关时期
China by this time began a weird period of isolation,
不愿与外界进行海上贸易
where they didn’t want any more maritime trade,
这样就没人去殖民美国了
and that leaves America uncolonized.
至少许多世纪以来 中国并没有理由继续扩张
For at least many centuries. There’s just no drive to expand further,
于是欧洲和非洲就成为了新的殖民地
Europe and Africa are instead that new world for colonization.
非洲奴隶制至今仍有大范围的影响
African slavery still is a large and prominent occurrence.
关于阿拉伯奴隶交易我能滔滔不绝
I could go into a whole spill about the Arab slave trade,
但在假设时间内 却有数以百万的非洲人被奴役
But in this alternate timeline, rest assured tens of millions of Africans are enslaved
奴役他们的不是欧洲人 而是阿拉伯人
not by Europeans, but by Arabs.
世界达到了它现在的技术水平吗?
Does the world reach the technological level it is now?
在很多方面 答案都是否定的
No, in many ways,
欧洲的工业化道路似乎
it seems that Europe’s path to industrialization
不是简单的必行之路
wasn’t simply an inevitable path.
而是 或多或少的一种侥幸成功
It was, more or less, a fluke.
一个世纪以来 欧洲都是封建制
For millennia, Europe had kept the same model——feudalism.
黑死病肆虐时 杀死了很多的人口
When the plague hit, it killed so many,
幸存下来的要求更高的工资
those who survived demanded higher wages,
破坏了社会秩序 使革新势在必行
undermining the social order, forcing innovation.
欧洲的被孤立迫使它寻找新的道路
Europe’s isolation forced it to seek new routes,
找到了美洲大陆
leading to the Americas.
巩固了欧洲新的下一步发展
solidifying Europe’s new step ahead,
使得复杂技术成果得以服务于社会
allowing for complex technological advances to operate society,
是机会瓶子中的一道闪电
it was a lightning in a bottle of chance.
我从没在其它地方看到这样的演变
I simply don’t see this occurring anywhere else.
中国和东亚选择孤立自己
China and east Asia chose to isolate themselves
他们不需要革新 所以选择沿用旧的技术
they didn’t need to innovate so they just chose to sustain old technologies.
至于伊斯兰国家
As for the Islamic world,
其黄金时代已经过去
its golden age had died,
接着是一个世纪长的倒退历史
starting a century’s long period of stagnation.
这种变化的原因很复杂 在视频中解释不清
The reason for this is complex and too much for this video.
长话短说 经过调查
Long story short, after my research,
我不认为只是简单的地区原因
I don’t think this is simply because of the region.
而是一种社会问题
I think this was a societal problem.
就像欧洲自从罗马时代就一直处于静止状态
Like how Europe was in a standstill since the days of Rome,
伊斯兰世界也曾面临同样的问题
the Islamic world had the same issue.
欧洲的解决办法就是扩张
Having Europe when it changed this, it’s simply expanded.
科学 数学 哲学等方面仍在进步
There would still be advances in the sciences, mathematics and philosophy,
但是在很多不同领域
but in many different areas
我并没有看到太多达到现在水平的
I simply don’t see much technological change
技术性改变
to the stage that we’re at now occuring
正是这些技术性改变促成今天世界的新貌
which really puts our world today in perspective
这里只做了一种假设 还有其他很多种
this is simply one scenario, there are countless others,
本次视频的目的并非只为将这些可能性理论化
however the point of this video isn’t purely to theorize about the what-if,
而是要思考未发生的历史
but to think about the history that did happen
以另一种角度——
in a different light——how fleas biting people,
几世纪前跳骚叮人
a plague centuries ago
怎样如何最终成就了欧洲帝国
could lead to Europe’s eventual empires,
和现在正在听我说话的你的
and you, listening to me right now
我是科迪 来自“或然历史中心”
This is Cody, of the Alternate History Hub
本次视频由“听见”在线服务赞助
This video was sponsored by
“听见”有别处无法媲美的
“Audible”, an online service which has an unmatched selection of
所有你最爱的小说的有声书选集
audiobooks from all your favorite novels.
其图书分类通过互联网的魔力自动
Their catalog allows you access to audio recordings
为你提供音频材料 种类繁多
from practically every genre instantaneously over the magic of the internet.
在我看来 它最大的好处是有“或然历史”的有声书
One of the best uses in my opinion for it, are for alternate history audiobooks
包括哈里·托特达夫的作品
including the works of Harry Turtledove.
但给我启发最大以至做这个视频的
But the book which inspired me the most to make this video was
是斯坦利·罗宾森的《米和盐的岁月》
was “the Years of Rice and Salt” by Kim Stanley Robinson.
书中详细介绍了黑死病是怎样将欧洲变成了不毛之地
It details a world where the black death left Europe practically uninhabited
同时还有其他文化涌入替代欧洲本土文化
while other cultures moved in to take its place
你们可以听这本书 也可以听其它“或然历史”的有声书
You can listen to this and many other alternate history audiobooks
真正的包罗万象
really anything from any genre
手机电脑平板均可阅读
anywhere on a phone computer or tablet,
不论你选择有声还是无声
regardless of whether you continue with audible or none
现在注册即可获得30天的试用期
You can sign up now for a 30-day trial with audible
并可自选一本有声书
and get an audiobook of your choice
不一定要是“或然历史”主题
Doesn’t have to be altering history
完全免费 只需点击下方链接
absolutely free, just click on the link provided in the description below
网址为www.audible.com/althistory
www.audible.com/althistory
我是科迪 来自“或然历史中心”
This is Cody of Alternate History Hub.

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

假设黑死病使得欧洲完全消灭,世界将会是怎样?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

海参崴

审核员

NL

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEYwXLpBpfI

相关推荐