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如果俄国不存在? – 译学馆
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如果俄国不存在?

What If Russia Never Existed?

别急普京
Now hold on Putin.
我知道你看了标题后想灭了我
I know you read the title and are trying to make me not exist,
但听我说完
but hear me out.
俄罗斯是有史以来最具影响力的国家
Russia is one of the most influential nations that has ever existed,
特别是在上世纪
especially within the last century.
因为它的国土面积是如此之大
Since it’s such a large presence,
以至于很难想象没有俄罗斯的另一个世界是什么样
it’s difficult to imagine an alternate world without it.
但这仍是个有趣的问题
But it’s still an interesting question.
如果我们所熟知的俄罗斯从来没存在过 会怎么样
What if the Russia we know simply never came to be?
如果它未曾统一 未曾成为专制国家 未曾成为帝国会又会怎样呢
What if it never united, didn’t become a czardom, and didn’t become an empire?
如果在另一条在平行时间线上 不存在俄罗斯 会发生什么呢
What if in an alternate timeline, Russia never existed?
不过首先 让我们说一下来龙去脉
But first, some context.
俄罗斯在世界范围内影响力这么大 不足为奇
It’s no surprise Russia’s existence would have such a large influence on the world.
如今 俄罗斯是世界上最大的国家
Today, it’s the largest nation in the world
国土面积覆盖17,075,200平方公里
at 17,075,200 square kilometres.
与14个国家接壤
It borders 14 nations,
他们大多数都属于前苏联
many of which are former Soviet states
甚至历史上 还曾是俄罗斯帝国的附属国
and who, even before then, were subjects of the Russian Empire.
历史上 由于俄罗斯领土面积广大 人们总认为它也应该是最强的
Historically, it has always been the largest force to be reckoned with simply due to its size,
这一想法自沙皇到苏联乃至今天都未曾改变
since the first days of the Czars up until the Soviet Union and today.
多谢了 科普君
Thanks, Real Life Lore.
是时候停下那些开放的想法了
I really have to stop leaving that door open.
那些想法很棒 都围绕一个共同的主题:面积
Those are all good points and have a consistent theme: size.
俄罗斯总因为面积大而被看作强国
Russia has always been a force to be reckoned with because of this size.
若它面积变小再与斯拉夫州或基辅公国竞争 会怎么样呢?
What happens if it remains smaller, competing Slavic states or princedoms?
这想法疯狂吗?不
Is this so crazy? No.
在九世纪
In the ninth century,
罗斯中世纪著名的基辅统一了大部分东斯拉夫人
Eastern Slavs were largely united by a medieval state known as the Kiev in Russ.
基辅控制斯拉夫各部族 形成了早期国家的概念
The capital, Kiev, controled the Slavic tribes informed an early sense of unity.
但这种统治并不长久
This reign wouldn’t last.
11世纪 基辅分裂为多个互相对抗的公国和城市
By the 11th century, it had fallen into rivalry among princes and cities.
不过外来游牧民族的入侵 又加强了它们的联合
This unity though was reinforced by the invasion of outside nomads.
尽管斯拉夫人常常与中亚的骑兵战斗
The Slavs had always fought the Horsemen of Central Asia.
然而 他们却挡不住蒙古骑兵的进攻
However, they were no match for a new attack from the Mongol horde.
在一次突袭之后
In a surprise invasion,
基辅罗斯公国被彻底摧毁
the Kiev in Russ was entirely destroyed
蒙古人征服了这个地区 并被逼迫他们进贡
as the Mongols conquered the region and forced the cities to pay tribute.
历经两个世纪 所有罗斯人臣服于金帐汗国
For two centuries, all of Russ was subject to the Golden Horde.
如果胆敢反叛或抗税 就会被消灭
Rebel or refuse to pay taxes, and you get sacked.
在被统治期间 有些城市过得相对较好
Some cities fared better than others during this occupation.
莫斯科就深得蒙古人欢心
The city of Moscow became a favourite of the Mongols.
他们向蒙古纳税 因此没像其他城市那样被摧毁
They paid their taxes and weren’t destroyed like the others.
并且变得稳定而富裕
It became stable and rich.
越来越多的人移居莫斯科 这让它更加强大
More people migrated to live in it which made it more powerful.
稳固就意味着一旦蒙古失势
The stability meant that once the Mongols lost their grip,
莫斯科便可反叛取胜
Moscow could rebel, and win.
随着蒙古帝国瓦解
As the Mongols collapsed,
莫斯科人趁势占有土地 联合欧洲的罗斯人
Moscow was able to take land in the power vacuum and unit all of European Russ,
成为了俄国的新首都
transforming Moscow as the head of a new state, Russia.
历经几个世纪 莫斯科征服了新大陆
Over the centuries, Moscow conquered new lands,
最终成为我们今天所看到的大国
eventually becoming the large state we see today.
在这条平行时间线上
In this alternate timeline,
莫斯科并没有强大到足以统一东斯拉夫
all it takes is Moscow not becoming strong enough to unite the Eastern Slavs –
或者说 那时这个专制国家是自己瓦解的
or even then – the czardom could have easily have collapsed into itself
国家1/3的人口由于饥荒都饿死了
during the time of troubles when a famine killed a third of the entire population.
俄国从没稳定到能发展起来
The Russe society is never stable enough to flourish
甚至在一切发生后 各个公国仍处在混乱的状态
and the principalities remain so devastated that even after everything.
他们只会打仗
They only fight each other.
不管事情是怎么发生的 我关心的只是将俄罗斯从历史上移除
No matter how this happens, what I care about is removing Russia from history.
想象一下 德国和意大利统一之前
Imagine something like Germany or Italy before they were united.
在文化上与俄国有很多相似的地方 然而并没有什么用
A bunch of culturally similar Russian states that can’t amount to anything.
如果把俄罗斯这样的帝国从历史上移除
By removing an empire like Russia from history,
再谈一些具体的事件毫无意义 比如一战的历史就此会被改写
it’s pointless to talk about specific events like World War One being changed.
事实是 由于历史上发生过的事件 才促使这样的事件被改变
Because the centuries of events leading up to such events are changed.
德国会在一战中取胜么?
Does Germany win World War One?
不 因为一战不会发生
No, because World War One doesn’t happen.
18世纪时的大多历史都不会发生
Most of the history of the 18th century doesn’t happen,
因为俄国的行动也影响着其他欧洲帝国的行为
because the Russian actions affected other European empires actions as well.
我能够猜测东欧的动态会受到更大程度影响
What I can predict is that the dynamic of Eastern Europe is heavily altered.
想象一下 这就像一个国际论坛
Think about it like an international forum of it’s a wonderful life.
总有赢家和输家
There are some winners and losers,
瑞典人和波勒斯就像其中的两个
two of which would be Switch and Poles.
十八世纪 波兰和立陶宛联合成一个帝国
Centuries ago in 18th Century, Poland and Lithuania was combined into a single empire.
的确曾经有一度波勒斯几乎摧毁了俄国阿甘城
Yes, there was a time that the Poles almost destroyed the Russians Ardham.
但因数年发展滞后和来自俄国的不断威胁
But over years due to stagnation and the ever-growing Russian threat,
在美国独立战争时候 波兰分崩 并被其他邻国吞并
Poland collapsed and was absorbed by its neighbors around the time of the American revolution.
其次 瑞典曾经也是欧洲的强国
Second, there was a time when the Swedish empire was one of the great powers of Europe
有潜力武装军事力量
and had potential to be a military force that was
不过这只存在于18世纪北方战争爆发之前
until the great northern war in 18th century,
俄罗斯替代瑞典成为欧洲的新势力
which Sweden lost to Russia who from that became the new power of Europe instead.
假设没有俄罗斯
Without a Russia,
这些国家都将成为东欧的领导国
both of these countries would become the leaders of Eastern Europe in this alternate world.
前提是到20世纪 这些国家没有遇到不可遇见的灾难的话
And if no unforeseen disaster occurs prominent leaders by the 20th century.
如果俄国没有统一 而是政治内讧的国家
If Russia never actually united and instead remained a series of infighting city-states,
平坦的地形将诱发外敌入侵
the flat geography of the region would allow for foreign armies to invade.
俄罗斯将会一直是一个斗争不断的地方
Russia would be a constantly warring region,
腹背受敌 让这些城市永远动荡不安
forever unstable as cities could be attacked from both sides.
这就是为什么 在我们的时间轴上 俄罗斯能保证自身安全的唯一办法就是
That’s why in our timeline the only way Russia was able to stay safe was
尽可能的拉开 人民与敌人之间的距离
to put as much distance between its people and enemies as possible.
这就使俄罗斯不会采取大多数欧洲人的价值观
This alternate Russia doesn’t adopt most European values.
彼得大帝在位期间对俄国推行的西化改革
The reforms of Peter the Great Forced Russia to westernize
修建风格 行为 穿着都要像西欧一些国家
and build and act and dress like the rest of Europe.
如果没有沙皇 这一切都不能实现
Yet this never happens without a zar.
相反对于欧洲另一部分人来说 俄国很奇怪
Instead to the rest of Europe, Russia is this odd
处于亚洲游牧区文明世界的边界地区 却混乱暴力
rule and violent border region between the civilized world in Nomadic, Asia
斯拉夫人留着胡子 穿着奇怪的衣服
bearded and weirdly dressed slavs
将他们自己分割成敌对的国家
who divided themselves into a series of warring States.
他们看起来像欧洲人 但是文明和宗教文化却大相径庭
They look European, but are culturally and religiously far different.
俄国和东斯拉夫只算是欧洲的边郊
Russia and Eastern slavs only become the outskirts of Europe.
最东边欧洲人关心的是波兰
The farthest east most Europeans would care about is Poland.
波兰再往东 什么都不是 只不过是一些欧洲和亚洲人的混合
Past that it’s nothing, but a blend of Europe and Asia.
在这个假想剧本里 俄罗斯就是一面墙 旁边有几个中亚的小部落
Russia is the wall with the tribes of Central Asia who in this alternate scenario.
他们从不会建造属于自己的国家
never create their own countries.
他们也没必要那样做
There’s no need to.
他们属于游牧民族 西方国家政权里压根没有这个概念
They were Nomads and so western concepts of Nation-States weren’t really a thing.
如果俄国不去征战这些土地 这些地区的人就不会建国
Without a Russian empire to conquer this land, these regions don’t form their own countries.
俄罗斯就成为了带着部落的开放土地 就像亚洲大部分地方一样
It’s just open land with tribes, which is actually most of Asia.
曾是俄国的殖民地的阿拉斯加 现在也不过是英加拿大的延伸而已
Alaska which was formerly a Russian colony instead is just an extension of British Canada.
这个设想根本不可能实现
The scenario is of course very unlikely.
分裂对俄罗斯来说毫无好处
It would only be harmful for Russia to not be united,
它意味着接连不断的战争 资源的争夺
to constantly war and compete over resources.
但如果情况急剧恶化 事情也有可能发生
But if the situation got bad enough, it’s always possible it could have happened.
我们永远意料不到会发生什么
We’ll never truly know what would happen,
如果俄罗斯从不存在 因为太多的事情在预料之外了
if Russia never existed because surprise it does.
很多历史都可能改变 我们根本不可能预测到细节
So much of history would change it’s almost impossible to predict it in detail.
这不过是众多可能性中的一种而已
This is simply one alternate scenario in the countless possibilities.
你觉得会发生什么
What do you think would have happened?
我是历史替换组 科迪
This is Cody of AlternateHistoryHub.
所以今天的节目引出另一个问题:
So this can lead us to an interesting question:
假设所有解体的国家再次组成苏维埃俄国
what would happen if all of the former countries that once made up the soviet union,
突然在2017年一起联合
all of a sudden got back together again today in 2017
现今的苏维埃社会主义共和联盟会什么样
what would a modern-day U.S.S.R. look like in our Modern age?
仍会是超级大国么
and would it still even be considered a superpower?
点击这里 精彩继续
Click here to find out next.

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视频概述

如果把俄国从历史上抹去 会发生什么?擦掉历史,重新谱写~

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视频来源

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