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伊斯兰国瓦解后会怎样

What happens after ISIS falls?

恐怖组织伊斯兰国濒临瓦解 2014年底该组织占领了和英国国土面积相当的领地
The terrorist group ISIS is losing. At the end of 2014 they claimed a territory the size of Great Britain
辖区人口达1100万 而现在其控制区域已缩小60%
and a population of 11 million people. But today it’s lost about 60% of that
人口也锐减至250万
and its population is down to about two and a half million.
这是该组织一直以来与各方敌军翰旋的结果
It’s the result of fighting its enemies on all sides.
伊斯兰国深陷与西、北边境武装反叛组织
To the west and north, ISIS is fighting armed rebel groups
和俄罗斯支持的叙利亚军队及其盟军的斗争
and the Russia-back Syrian military and its allies.
同时还要抵抗北方土耳其军队及美国支持的库尔德武装力量的挑衅
It’s also fighting Turkish troops and US-back Kurdish forces in the north,
此外 在其领地东部和南部还驻扎有美国支持的伊拉克军队
and to the east and south there’s a US-back Iraqi army.
正是这支军队最近夺取了伊斯兰国最大的城市
It was this Iraqi army that deliver the latest blow,
同时也是其在伊拉克的首都 摩苏尔 对该组织造成了打击 其损失十分巨大
when they took over ISIS’s biggest city Mosul, the group’s capital in Iraq. It was a symbolic loss.
该组织于2014年宣布占领摩苏尔 称其为伊斯兰国的合法领地
Mosul is where the group declared caliphate, or Islamic territory in 2014.
这使得他们和其他恐怖组织区别开来
this set them apart from other terrorist organizations,
和基地组织不同 他们不只是将圣战主义者势力扩展到其他国家
they weren’t just network jihadist strength out across several countries like Al-Qaeda.
而是拥有实际管辖的区域 也是就它所宣称的伊斯兰国
They governed actual territory, which they called Islamic State.
目前摩苏尔的沦陷和伊斯兰国的瓦解已成定势
Now the loss of Mosul, the fall of this ISIS caliphate seems imminent.
那么 接下来会发生什么?
So, what happens when ISIS is gone?
[背景音乐]
[Music playing]
第一个问题就是 这些士兵会想要回家
Problem No.1 is that these fighters are going to want to go home.
2014年 伊斯兰国在伊拉克和叙利亚境内夺取了大片领土
So, in 2014, when ISIS captured a huge swathe of territory in Iraq and Syria,
成千上万的外籍士兵加入该组织 他们来自世界的各个角落
tens of thousands of foreign fighter came from all over the world to join the caliphate.
据联合国数据统计 截至2016年7月 该组织有超过30000名士兵
accroding to UN estimate, as of July 2016, there are upwards of 30,000 foreign fighters.
其中大部分人来自突尼斯 摩洛哥 约旦 沙特阿拉伯这样的国家
So most of these fighters came from countries like Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
但同时也有数百人来自比利时 德国 英国 甚至还有几十人来自美国
but hundreds also came from countries like Belgium, Germany, the UK, and even a few dozens from the United States.
这些士兵因为各种各样的理由来到伊斯兰国
So these fighters were drawn to ISIS for all sorts of different reasons,
但最主要的原因是该组织拥有实际领土 并将建立哈里发政权
but a big one was that it had actual territory and was supposed to be building a caliphate
而这个政权的基础是它对伊斯兰教义的极端解释
based on its own extreme interpretation of the Islamic law.
该组织制作夸张 暴力的视频和线上杂志 以宣传其极端思想
ISIS’s propaganda push this narrative in flashy, violent videos and magazines online,
从而在吸引士兵的同时 煽动来自不同领域的人们进入其领地 帮助建立伊斯兰国政权
encouraging people from all walk of life, not just fighters, to come and help build this glorious Islamic State.
应召而来的不光是年轻人和士兵
And the people who came were not just young men, they weren’t just fighters,
还有无数的妇女 儿童 甚至家庭但现在伊斯兰国的领地缩小了
there were women, children, and even families who came as well. But now as ISIS’s territory shrinks,
其政权也不复存在 因此这些幸存下来的人都得另谋出路
and the state that they tried to build collapses, anyone who survives would have to find somewhere else to go,
这是个大问题 因为这些人中的大多数都已经受到该组织思想感染
and that’s a major problem, because many of these people are now indoctrinated,
且相互联系紧密 可以很容易地实施致命的恐怖袭击
they’re now well-connected, and they’re capable of carrying out deadly terrorist attacks.
类似的情况在20世纪80年代曾经发生在阿富汗
A similar dynamic actually happened back in the 1980s, at Afghanistan,
那时数以万计的外籍士兵进入阿富汗境内
so thousands of foreign fighters flocked to Afghanistan
帮助其抵御苏维埃入侵 在苏维埃军队离开后
to help the Afghan which had in fighting the Soviet invasion. And after the soviets’ left,
这些士兵许多都加入了圣战团体 在不同战区参与作战
a lot of these fighters dispersed to different theaters of jihad,
这些战区包括波斯尼亚 车臣 索马里 苏丹和其他区域
including Bosnia, Chechnya, Somalia, Sudan and elsewhere.
这些士兵最终组成了一个松散的跨国圣战者团体
These fighters ended up forming a loose network of transnational jihadists.
由于这些人曾在阿富汗参与作战 因此大部分都与本拉登和基地组织有关联
Most of whom had links to Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda thanks to their time fighting in Afghanistan.
他们中的一部分人实际上继续参与发动了针对西方的恐怖袭击
And some of them actually went on to carry out attacks against the West,
袭击对象包括美国
including attacks against the United States.
所以现在有些人担心伊斯兰国士兵会有同样的举动
So the worry now is that the ISIS fighters will do something similar,
这次他们可能会回到欧洲境内或其他国家 在当地发动袭击
but this time they might actually make it home to places like Europe, and launch attacks there.
[背景音乐]
[Music Playing]
第二个问题是 伊斯兰国瓦解之后 当地美军怎样处置
So the second problem is, what to do with the US military after ISIS falls.
目前美国正在协助伊拉克和叙利亚当地的武装力量打击伊斯兰国
Right now the US is helping local forces in Iraq and Syria to defeat ISIS,
有约1000名美军驻扎在叙利亚 约6000名美军驻扎在伊拉克
there’re currently around 1000 US troops in Syria, and around 6000 US troops in Iraq.
位于伊拉克的伊斯兰国首都摩苏尔已经被攻陷
Mosul, which was ISIS’s capital in Iraq, has fallen,
目前美军正在协助叙利亚当地武装攻打伊斯兰国在拉卡的大本营
and right now the US is helping Syrian local forces to defeat ISIS in Ar Raqqah, its so called capital there.
当这两个城市沦陷后 伊斯兰国势力将分散至农村区域
So as those two cities’ fall, ISIS has been spreading out to rural areas.
现在摆在特朗普政府面前的选择有两个 一是将美军留在当地
The Trump administration has two choices, option 1 is to keep the US troops there,
继续在战争的泥潭里挣扎
which would leave them in harm’s way,
或者将他们调遣回国 这样很可能会使该区域再次爆发战争
or option 2 is to bring them home, which increases the risk that the region will break out into war again.
第一种选择会给特朗普带来很大的政治风险 他曾在竞选时承诺
Option 1 is a big political risk for Trump, he promised during the campaign
不会参与外部战争 而是会将美国的金钱
that he would not get involved in foreign wars, that he would actually invest American money,
时间 工作和其他种种资源 都投入到国内 所以如果特朗普打算继续在该区域驻扎美军
and time, and jobs, and resources to United States. And so if Trump were to keep troops in the region,
就相当于承认背弃竞选以来一直宣扬的的政治信仰
he would be admitting that he is going against the political philosophy he espoused during the campaign
第二种选择对他来说同样具有风险
and currently during his presidency. Option 2 is definitely also a risk for Trump,
如果撤出美军 就会为该区域宗派冲突的爆发创造条件
if US troops were to leave, that opens a space for a sectarian violence to break out in the region.
拿2001年来说
Let’s take a look for example at what happened in 2001.
当时奥巴马政府将多数美军撤出了该区域
The Obama administrations took most of its troops out of the region,
随后巴格达的什叶派政府便趁机在全国范围内镇压逊尼派徒众
they gave the Shiite government in Baghdad the space to crack down on Sunnite populations throughout the country.
伊斯兰国趁虚而入 被当做逊尼派的卫士 用以对抗什叶派政府
And ISIS took advantage of that, ISIS was seen as the defender against Shiite government,
它也因此获得了支持 势力持续壮大
and was able to gain support and allows for its rise to continue.
也就是说
So while it doesn’t necessarily mean that if troops leave,
虽然撤军并不一定代表类似组织或升级版伊斯兰国会借机发展 但这种可能性是的确存在的
an ISIS-type group or ISIS 2.0 itself will grow out at the absent of US troops,but that risk certainly exists.
加州致命枪击案
The deadly California shooting rampage
枪手单独作案 宣称效忠于伊斯兰国
A lone gunman had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
两起枪击事件都由所谓的“独狼”制造
Both incidents carried out by so-called “lone wolves”.
第三个问题是 伊斯兰国正在从一个地理区域演变成一种思想
Problem NO. 3 is ISIS is moving from a place to an idea.
目前为止 伊斯兰国只有一个目标 就是守住其在伊拉克及叙利亚境内的既得领地
Up till now, ISIS had one goal— defend the territory already had in Iraq and the territory already had in Syria.
然而它很可能什么都捞不到 这样的话
The problem is it’s on the verge of losing both. And when that happens,
伊斯兰国就会从人们战斗的战场演变成一种人们为之战斗的思想
ISIS goes from being the kind of place people go to fight to being the idea that people fight for.
这种思想极具号召力
It’s an idea that’s compelling,
可以让追随者们心甘情愿为之杀戮 为之牺牲
it’s an idea that its followers are willing to kill for, and its followers are wiling to die for.
他们刚刚掌权的时候 人们认为
When they came to power, people thought
它虽然拥有实际领土和统治欲望
that it’s a group that has its own territory, and want to control that territory,
但它和基地组织不一样 它不是恐怖组织 不会袭击西方国家这样的境外区域
but it’s not Al-Qaeda, it’s not a terrorist group that wants to carry out attacks outside of its borders, in the West.
这种幻想在2015年10月被悲剧的现实打破了
That was proven tragically wrong in October of 2015.
这就是伊斯兰国声称其在击落在西奈半岛上空俄罗斯客机时所使用的炸弹
This is the bomb ISIS claims they use to bring down the Russian passenger plane over the Sinai peninsular.
该组织在其线上杂志中发表了炸弹照片
In their online magazine they posted photos of the bomb
称照片中就是击落客机的炸弹
that they said had been used to blow off the plane,
这预示了随后的一连串恐怖行动 该组织在伦敦 巴黎 尼斯策动的恐怖袭击
and that was a reminder for what’s about to come. A wave of ISIS attacks have killed hundreds of people
夺取了数百人的生命 同时间接引发了美国境内的恐怖袭击
in London, in Paris, and Nice, and have inspired attacks that have killed dozens here at home,
在加州和奥兰多市 有数十人遇袭丧生
in California, in Orlando.
值得注意的是这些袭击的实施者并非都是伊斯兰国的成员
It’s worth remembering that these are not always attacks carried out by people who are part of ISIS.
而是有很多来自当地 这些人受到激进思想的影响 从而发动袭击
In many cases these are people who are radicalized in the countries where they lived,
这也正是这种思想的可怕之处 比如发生在加州圣贝那迪诺市的恐怖袭击
and that’s the danger of the idea. Take what happened in San Bernardino, California,
其实施者为一对夫妇 共致14人死亡 还有在奥兰多市 一名枪手射杀了49人
where a married couple killed 14 people, or in Orlando, where a single shooter killed 49 people.
伊斯兰国在两次袭击发生后都宣称对袭击负责
In both cases ISIS claimed responsibility,
然而这两起袭击的发动者和伊斯兰国之间并没有直接联系
but in both cases there is no connection between those people and ISIS.
他们是通过网络被煽动的 伊斯兰国清楚思想宣传的重要性
They got radicalized over the Internet. ISIS’s known that propaganda matters,
同时也非常擅于宣传 它让世界各地的成员统一使用英语和阿拉伯语
and ISIS is really good at it. It has people all over the world to use English language, Arabic language
开通脸书和推特账号
to have Facebook pages and Twitter accounts
并在平台发布极具煽动性的视频
that are full of incredibly slickly produced videos,
借此吸引人们的注意 如果你的世界观刚好与其吻合
they are really compelling, and if you’re someone predisposed to have that worldview,
他们就会促使你将这种认同恐怖袭击的思想
they can push you over the edge from just thinking that’s an idea worth killing for
转化为现实的行动
to actually killing for it.
伊斯兰国组织非常看重网络渠道宣传 它将这些追随者称做是媒体操作者
ISIS takes it so seriously, that it refers to these people as media operatives,
并称这些媒体操作者和实际杀戮者一样 都是伟大事业的殉道人
and says those media operatives are carrying out a form of martyrdom akin to killing, to literally killing, for the cause.
所以当伊斯兰国瓦解之后 摆在我们面前的最大难题就是
And at the end of the day that’s the hardest thing about ISIS—
尽管我们可以在伊拉克和叙利亚把他们打得落花流水 尽管他们现在确实节节败退
it can be beaten on the ground in Iraq and Syria, it is being beaten on the ground in Iraq and Syria,
但它正在从一个地理概念演变成一种思想
but it’s going from being a place to an idea,
而要打败一种思想是不可能的
and it is impossible, impossible to defeat an idea.
[视频结束 谢谢观看]
[The End]

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视频概述

摩苏尔沦陷 叙利亚战场节节败退 濒临瓦解的伊斯兰国将去向何方

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Kim Chang

审核员

L

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ltr7x8nO2M

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