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世界平均温度提升四度会发生什么

What Could Happen in a World That's 4 Degrees Warmer | WIRED Brand Lab

周六我想低调点
On Saturdays, I’d like to keep it pretty low key.
啊!
Ah!
喝一杯咖啡吧
Have a cup of coffee.

Ow.
或许会做运动
Maybe exercise.
然后可能会做一下伸展运动 然后去约会
And then, maybe really stretch myself and go on a date.
4C世界对你的周六来说意味着什么
嗨 我是阿帕尔纳
Hi! I’m Aparna.
全球变暖
Global warming,
气候改变
climate change,
一只北极熊漂浮在冰面上
that one polar bear floating on an icecap.
你可能耳闻或目睹过这些事情
You’ve all heard and seen these things
但是它们如何直接影响我们呢?
but how will they affect us directly?
我知道科学界的大部分
I do know that most of the scientific community
都同意在未来70年
agrees that the Earth is on a trajectory warm-up
地球正在变暖的轨迹
anywhere between 2 and 4 ℃
范围在2-4℃
in the next 70 years.
但在气温升高4℃的环境里生活
But what will living in a world that is 4℃ hotter
对人类又有什么影响
actually mean for us.
一直都在渡春假吗?
Will it be spring break forever?
及时行乐?还是追求生活的质量?
#YOLO? #Best life?
我甚至没有准备好迎接这些事
I’m not even prepared for that.
但是为了真正回答这个问题
But to truly answer this question,
我召集了一队专家
I brought together a team of experts
帮我们看看若气温升高4℃
that will help us see what it will be like
世界会发生什么变化
to live in a world that is 4℃ hotter.
伊内兹·冯是一个研究员
Inez Fung is a researcher,
专攻气候变化带来的影响
studying the effects of climate change.
珍妮特·乔治是西部数据公司的首席数据官
And Janet George is chief data officer, western digital.
什么是4C世界呢?
So what is the 4C world?
我觉得很多人都听说过
I feel like a lot of people would hear that
将来会升温4℃ 但他们觉得
would be 4℃ hotter and they’ll be like,
升4℃也没那么热
that’s not that much hotter.
对 当我们考虑到度数时
Well, when we think about a few degrees,
我们说的是全球平均数
it’s globally average.
冰河时代的平均温度只比现在冷4℃
During the ice age it was only 4℃ colder.
而海平面急剧下降了
OK, and sea level was dramatically lower.
那么在气候科学上数据是如何改变生活的呢?
So how is data changing the game for climate science?
我们手头有大量的数据资料
We have tremendous data at… in our hands.
从这些资料中我们得出了深刻的见解
We have deep insights form this data.
我能够分析到
We are able to analyze the scale
比以前更大的规模
that we’ve never been able to do before.
我们能够建立机器学习模型
We are able to build machine learning models that
来进行相关预测分析
tell us predictive analytics around,
我们可以看到
em…what we can see
什么影响了气候变化
that impacts climate change.
世界上将发生许多不可逆的改变
A lot of irreversible changes are gonna happen to the world.
热浪会持续很久
The heat waves will be very long.
伴随热浪而来的还有久旱
And together with the heat waves we have very long droughts.
然后下雨时 雨势会变得更加强烈
And then when it rains, the rain is gonna be more intense
雨的持续时间或许也会有所改变
and maybe different duration.
我们还会看到海平面上升
And then what we’ll also see is sea level rising.
然后是海岸地带来势汹涌的洪水泛滥
And there will be tremendous inundation at… for the coast area, you know.
-这就是人们不在乎气候改变的原因-阿帕尔纳:这就是我为我们的举动而紧张的原因
-This’s why people don’t care about climate change.-Aparna: That’s why I am so nervous about our action.
话好多
It’s a lot of talking,
大部分我都听不下去
and not lot of what’s in it for me.
珍妮特:翻天覆地的变化…伊内兹:陆地边界会…
Janet: Massive distinction…Inez: and the border will be…
我的天
My dear!
所以…我就实话实说吧
So… I’m gonna be honest.
你们说了很多重要的东西
You said a lot of important stuff,
但这都是些很糟糕的传闻
but it’s all pretty terrible sounding
有些时候我得调整心态 保持乐观
and at some points I had to tune up just to stay positive.
你需要以一种人们能接受的方式进行言论
You need to talk to people in a way that they can
你知道 他们会觉得
really… you know, they can be like
这对我有什么影响吗 只有他们切实体会到危机 才会接受
what would be different for me that you gonna have them when it hurts.
或许你可以说
Maybe if you were like, I am gonna
我将你放置到升温4℃的世界 并占用你的周末
put you into a 4C world, and take away your weekend.
-这是一个实验吗?-对 这是一个相关实验…
– An experiment?- Yeah. An experiment like doing…
-我不做实验-好吧 不能积极一点吗
– I’m not with experiment.-OK, well, I like your positive attitude.
我想若展示一下我的周六
I think if we showed me going through my Saturday
只有气温升了4℃ 其它没什么不同
and everything is the same except it’s a 4C world.
这样我才会乐意看
Now that I would watch.
[鼓声]
[Drum sound]
伊内兹:准备好了吗
Inez: Ready when you are.
[闹钟]
[Alarming]
没有比在陌生人的房间睡醒更好的事情了
Nothing better than waking up to a room from a stranger’s.
阿帕尔纳:好的员工:你可以跟珍妮通过对讲机谈话了
Aparna: Ok.Staff: Go talk to Janet and answer through there.
珍妮特:你可以听到我们说话吗?阿帕尔纳:好像有人在跟我讲话 嗨 早上好
Janet: Can you hear us?Aparna: Someone’s talking to me. Hi, good morning.
伊内兹:恭喜 你没住在海岸附近 你的家没被浪卷走
Inez: Congratulations! You don’t live near the coast and your home is still here.
阿帕尔纳:哦 不
Aparna: Oh, no!
伊内兹:我一直觉得自然比人更聪慧
Inez: I’ve always said that nature is smarter than we are.
在升温4℃的世界里
In a 4C world,
会有一些意外 一些我们不曾预想到的意外
there will be surprises, and there will be surprises that we really can not anticipate.
[尖叫]
[Screaming]
哦哈哈
Oh, ha-ha.
阿帕尔纳:把它们弄出去 快 啊
Aparna: Get them off! Get them off! Ahhhh!
不不 不要到床上来 不要
No! No, don’t go into the bed, don’t go into the bed.
哈哈
Haha.
阿帕尔纳:过分了 我们并不熟 别过来
Aparna: It’s not appropriate. I just met you, please stop.
珍妮特:我对她深表同情 哈哈哈
Janet: I actually feel for her. Hahaha!
阿帕尔纳:你好?珍妮特?伊内兹?
Aparna: Hello? Janet? Inez?
蟑螂吗?等等
Cockroaches? Wait!
这跟升温4℃的世界有什么关系?
What does that have to do with the 4C world?
珍妮特:昆虫行为极易受到气温波动影响
Janet: Insect behavior is keenly sensitive to temperature fluctuations.
有数据显示 升温 基因碱基替换
Data has also shown a strong coorporation between
和基因复制之间存在强烈的相关性
rising temperatures, DNA base substitution and DNA replication.
阿帕尔纳:为什么要告诉我这些?你准备帮忙吗?
Aparna: Why are you telling me this? Are you trying to help?
你好像并没在帮助我诶
Doesn’t seem like you’re helping.
珍妮特:随着气温的上升
Janet: So with the rising temperatures and as these
基因会变得多样化
genetics become diverse, and what we’re going to see is
我们会看到昆虫身上出现新的行为和新的适应变化
new behaviours and new adaptations emerging
其具体内容我们并不能预知 我们并不了解
from these inserts that we didn’t actually predict or know about.
阿帕尔纳:请待在那里
Aparna: Please stay down there.
伊内兹:整个食物链 整个生物系统
Inez: The whole food chain, the whole biological system is changing
正在以一种未知的方式发生改变
in a way that we can not predict
因为我们并没有未来系统的数据
because we have no data for that future system.
阿帕尔纳:你去哪里了?那边吗?
Aparna: Where have you been? Over here?
阿帕尔纳:先把那些东西抓起来伊内兹:哪些物种会崛起?
Aparna: Get these guys first.Inez: Which species will thrive?
我也说不清 但是鉴于蟑螂悠久的历史
I can not really tell you, but given a long history of cockroaches,
它们会过得很滋润
I think that they would do well.
阿帕尔纳:这家伙孤军作战 我不信他
Aparna: This guy is a lone-wolf, I don’t trust him.
好的 谢谢你抽空 希望没有下次
OK. Thank you for your time. Please never come back.
不要介意我这么做
Don’t mind if I do. Even though I’m
虽然我相当确定这是个陷阱
fairly certain this is a trap.
伊内兹:她对咖啡上瘾了
Inez: She is addicted to the coffee.
我认为她得意识到在升温4℃的世界里
And I think she has to realize that in a 4C world,
咖啡将变得非常珍贵
coffee is gonna be very precious.
阿帕尔纳:喝咖啡加什么呢?哦
Aparna: What could go around with coffee? Oh!
不 不会吧
No…what?!
珍妮特:哈哈 真粗鲁 真讨人厌
Janet: Haha! That’s really rude and nasty.
阿帕尔纳:为什么?
Aparna: Why?
你为什么那样做?
Why did you do that?
伊内兹:我们听到有人说当气候改变时
Inez: We have heard some people say that old climate change would
种植咖啡的地方会往山上移 因为山上温度更低
can just move the coffee up hill, where it is cooler.
事实并非这么简单
It’s not that easy.
随着数据测量和分析能力的改善
As data measurement and analysis capability have improved,
我们对于存在问题的机制有了更深的理解
we are gaining a much deeper understanding of what the issues are the mechanisms,
这样我们就能并入模型
that we can incorporate into the models.
珍妮特:我们面临着本地阿拉比卡咖啡种植陷入灭绝的危险
Janet: We face the danger of the native Arabica plant going exstinct
多样性银行对于研究
and those diversity banks are
培植新农作物的长期可持续性
very key for studying long-term sustainablity
具有非常关键的作用
to cultivate new crop.
阿帕尔纳:谢谢你 咖啡被打翻的事我就不计较了
Aparna: Thank you. This makes up for earlier.
为什么
Why?
伊内兹:我们正在争分夺秒
Inez: We’re really racing against the clock.
在我们实验和弄清该于何处种什么时
And there are gonna be a lot of trial and error
需要经历大量的实验和试误
while we’re experimenting and figuring out where to go and where to plant.
珍妮特:好消息是数据确实能帮助并解决这个问题
Janet: Here’s a good news: datas actually helping and solve the problem.
例如 美国国内开发银行于2014年
For example, the Inter-American development bank released to the genome
公开了阿拉比卡咖啡基因组
of arabica coffee plant in 2014 to the public domain.
如今出现了众包 就是把任务分配到全世界来解决
Now with crowdsourcing you have this concepts to distribute the brain.
全世界的科学家拥有
And so, you know scientists all over the world that
有关咖啡的所有知识和数据
has any knowledge or has data around coffee
这些东西都可以被置入到系统内
can now input this into the system.
这确实能帮我们理解
This actually helps us to understand
阿拉比卡咖啡之类的咖啡在更高温度下不能存活的原因
how coffee plants like Arabica can’t survive in warmer temperatures.
[啜泣]
[Sobbing]

Oh.
运动…很久没做运动了
Exercise… haven’t done this in a while.
今天天气这么好
You know what, it’s a beautiful day
你们再折腾我 又不会惨到哪里去
and what is the worst thing you guys can do to me out here.
[叮]
[Ding]
太遗憾了
Too shamed
我承认我错了
I stand corrected.
全副武装 加上曝晒
With outfitted you with enough insolation
这样你的体温就会有所上升
that bring your body temperature up so you can feel
这样你就能体会在未来环境中的气温感受
what it is like in the foresee environment.
我觉得身上裹了厚厚的一层
I do feel very cacooned.
二氧化碳吸收了热量
CO2 is trapping the heat that
否则热量会逃逸到太空
otherwise would have escape to the space.
所以地球不能呼吸
So the earth can’t breathe can not ventaly
那么地球正在升温
So it is like the earth is heating up.
就好像被盖上了一层毯子
And we say here’s another layer of blanket.
再穿个毛衣
Put on other sweater.
阿帕尔纳 你觉得怎么样
Aparna, how are you feeling?
嘿 其实感觉还不坏
Hey, it’s actually isn’t that bad.
哦 我不喜欢那样
Oh, I don’t like that.
我们想确保我们已为她
We want to make sure that we simulate
在升温4℃的世界里模仿了困难的呼吸情况
difficult breathing conditions for her in a 4C world.
在升温4℃的世界里
In a 4C world,
山火能持续更长时间
wildfires could last a lot longer.
在加利福尼亚我们看到
In California along, we’ve seen it affect the air quality
山火不仅会影响到一天的空气质量
not just for a single day, but we’ve seen the toxic
而且有毒的空气会持续并延伸至几周
air quality continue and be prolonged for weeks.
气候改变不仅会造成气温改变
Climate change is not just about temperature change.
还会造成一系列并发事件
Climate change is a whole slew of things happening all together.
比如 和冷空气相比更暖的空气可以保存更多的
For example, warmer air can hold more water vapour
水蒸气
than cooler air.
而到下雨的时候 雨势会更强烈
When it rains, it’s gonna be more intense.
在有些地方降水量可能会降低
And in places that precipitation maybe declining
有些地方或许会出现强降水造成的洪水
there may be flesh floods, because we can have intense down pours.
[泼水]
[Watering]

Oh.
哈哈哈
Ha-ha-ha.
升温可能会造成一系列后果 因为世界是整体相连的
This gonna be a whole stuff outcomes and because the world is totally inter-connective,
我们不能按常理推断
we can not be business as usual.
哦 太好了
Oh, that is so nice.
抱歉 时间到了
Sorry, time is up.

Ah.
你在开玩笑吗?
Are you kidding me?
升温4℃的世界会有严重的水资源匮乏现象
In the 4C world, there will be severe water shortages.
这里没有长时间淋浴的条件
And there’s no such thing as long showers
我好恨你们
I really hate you guys.
到时间喝酒了吗
Is it time for a drink?
不不不不
No *4
这是一个模仿升温4℃世界的饭店
This is a restaurant that simulates to 4C world.
我们会为你安排一场相亲
And we’ll set you on a blind date.
-但是你们今天甚至都没让我洗澡-别担心
– But you guys haven’t even let me shower today. – Don’t worry.
是熟人吗?
– He’s a new face?
我得好好看看
I’m putting it on my face.
[弱拍音乐]
[Upbeat music]
哦 这就是她的相亲对象
Oh, here’s her blind date.
哦 嗨 最近过得怎么样 哎哟
Oh, hi. How is it going? Oops.
哦 怎么回事 这…
Oh, how, this is…
这儿还不错?
Nice?
谁知道未来的饭店会有氧气吧呢
Who knows if restaurant of the future would have oxygen bars.
但是那样不是很有趣吗?
But wouldn’t that be fun?
周围气氛很尴尬
All around awkward.
当然 为什么不
Sure, why not.
这里太热了
It’s very hot in here.
有水吗?还在营业吗?
Any water? Is anyone work here?
哦 现在没有人付得起租金了
Well, nobody can afford the rent now.
我不知道当陆地减少时谁能承担得起居住在陆地上的费用
So I don’t know who will be able to afford the rent when there is less land.
我们认为旧金山的陆地大约会缩小20平方英里
We thought for the land in San Francisco were going to shrink about 20 square miles.
现在我们可以非常精确地测量一下地面的距离
Now, we can measure the distance of the ground very accurately.
用激光雷达和雷达 在卫星上飞行 搭载飞行器
With ladar and with radar, flying on satellites and on aircraft.
现在我们知道 陆地缩减可以达到55平方英里
Now we know, that the land can shrink up to 55 square miles.
你在这里工作吗?
Do you work here?
尽管这样看阿帕尔纳的经历很搞笑
As much fun as we are having with Aparna here,
但这是个很严重的问题 将影响世界上的贫困人口
this is a really serious issue that’s gonna affect the world’s poor.
当气候发生改变 当海平面上升
When climate change happens, when sea level rises,
人们无处可去
they have no where to go.
这个人不是真正的人类吗?
Is this person not a real human?
那是个玩具吗?
Is that the toys?
他不是机器人 他是真的
He’s not a robot, he’s real.
[轻轻的笑声]
[Light laughter]
你绝对是个机器人
You were definitely a robot.
我们为什么要站着 咱们坐下吧
Why are we standing here, let’s go sit down.
哦 太饿了
Oh, so hungry. I just want
我只想要一些活命的食物
some sustenance, anything.
76%的世界人口赖以生存的是大米 小麦 大麦
76% of the world population depend on
并摄入马铃薯以补充蛋白质
rice, wheat, barley, and potatoes for their protein.
-嘿 你想要什么呢?-哦 谢天谢地
– Hey, what can I get you?- Oh, thank goodness, em…
我要两个汉堡包 三杯水
Two burgers and three glasses of water
他想要什么自己点
and whatever he would like.
实验数据显示
Data from experiments have shown that
生长在高浓度二氧化碳世界里的植物 蛋白质含量更少
plants grow in a higher CO2 world will have less protein.
好想吃东西啊
I’m so excited for this food.
所以随着植物中蛋白质含量的减少
So with decrease protein content of these crops
我们将出现蛋白质效率危机
we’re gonna have a protein efficiency crisis.
卧槽
What the [Beep]!
这是什么呀?
What is this?
呈现在我们眼前的是蟋蟀做的汉堡包
So we have here is a burger made out of crickets,
里面夹的是一些烤好的特大号蠕虫
stuffed with some toasted super worms.
恶心如它 在预知世界里
As creepy as it is, in the foresee world, eating insects
吃昆虫可能是解决我们的蛋白质问题的最实用的方法
maybe the practical things to our protein problems especially
尤其是因为动物饲养还变得更昂贵 更无法预知
since animal husbandry is gonna be very expensive and unpredictable.
我是说…
I mean…
它的口感还不错
It’s got a good texture.
那么 你过得怎么样?
So, how did you go?

Oh.
我一直满头大汗
I’m sweeping left.
我觉得我一整天都在流汗
I think I’m sweeping left down the whole day.
你知道 那里发生的一切都基于我们的模型投影
You know, what happened in there is based on our model projections.
而模型是不完美的
And the models are imperfect.
我们真的不知道市民和政府
We really have no clue how citizens and governments
会对气候变化作何回应
would respond to the climate change.
但是我们不能沉溺在…
So, we can not wallow in our…
自己的无助感里
sense of hopelessness,
不作为是非常危险的
no action is very dangerous.
我觉得应对气候变化上也有做得好的
You know, I think that’s progress
英国就是个中翘楚
the UK has actually done some pretty good work.
他们一直试图将碳排放量减少到
They have been able to reduce carbon emission levels
工业革命前的水平
to pre-industrial revolution levels.
我认为这就是巨大的进步
So I think that’s massive progress.
你认为数据是如何帮助克服气候问题的?
How do you think data has helped to overcome some climate hurdles?
你仔细考虑考虑 数据只不过是信息
You know, if you think about data, data was simply just information.
我们过去没能力收集
And we didn’t have the ability to collect
特别大规模的信息
very large amounts of information.
如今我们不仅能收集海量信息
Today we can not only collect very large amounts of information,
还能把这些信息整合起来
we can stitch all these information together
来创造知识 提升自己的洞察力
to create knowledge and does insight.
所以我认为数据绝对是解开困境的一大要素
So I think data is definitely a big piece of the puzzle.
但重要的是我们如何运用这些数据
But along with that is what we do with the data.
很奇妙的一点是 科学家们能够通过数据
It was fascinating to see how scientists are able to use data,
来做出一些有理有据的预测
to make well founded prediction about
从而告诉我们在升温4℃的世界里会发生什么
what might happen when we’re living in a 4C world.
即使是复杂生态系统中的一些小变化
Even small changes in complex ecosystems
都有可能导致一些非常可怕的后果
could potentially lead to some pretty wild outcomes.
但是我正在逐渐丧失我的希望
But, I’m signing off the degree of hope.
想知道更多关于数据是如何使人们采取行动应对气候变化的信息
Find out more about how data is helping the world
请登录datamakespossible.com
take climate action at datamakespossible.com.
现在我要走开一下
Now if you’ll excuse me,
和我的心理医生谈谈蟑螂的事
I need to go to talk to my therapist about cockroaches.

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译制信息
视频概述

带你去真实体验世界平均气温提升4°会发生什么。

听录译者

One静茹

翻译译者

ABC

审核员

审核员_JO

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Kt_oU9iss

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