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你好,陌生人

We've stopped trusting institutions and started trusting strangers | Rachel Botsman

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Light up the world
我们来谈谈信任问题吧
Let’s talk about trust.
大家都知道 相互信任是为人处世的基本原则
We all know trust is fundamental,
但说到信任他人
but when it comes to trusting people,
就大有深意了
something profound is happening.
如果你曾是Airbnb民宿网的房东或房客
Please raise your hand
请举下手
if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb.
哇喔 好多啊
Wow. That’s a lot of you.
谁有比特币呢
Who owns Bitcoin?
还是有很多人 好的
Still a lot of you. OK.
如果你曾经用Tinder 玩过在线交友
And please raise your hand if you’ve ever used Tinder
请举下手
to help you find a mate.
这次不太好统计啊 因为你们是这样举手的
This one’s really hard to count because you’re kind of going like this.
随着科技的进步
These are all examples of how technology
一系列新的制约机制
is creating new mechanisms
使得我们可以相信陌生人 陌生公司及各种新想法
that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas.
但与此同时
And yet at the same time,
我们对各种机构的信任
trust in institutions —
比如说银行 政府 甚至是教会
banks, governments and even churches —
却正在瓦解
is collapsing.
那么 这到底是怎么回事儿呢
So what’s happening here,
到底该相信谁呢?
and who do you trust?
让我们从法国的一个平台说起吧—— 我该称它为一家公司
Let’s start in France with a platform — with a company, I should say —
一家拥有有趣名字的公司
with a rather funny-sounding name,
BlaBlaCar
BlaBlaCar.
它是为愿意一起进行长途旅行的司机与乘客
It’s a platform that matches drivers and passengers
进行搭配的一个平台[提供车子者-联系的平台BlaBlaCar-需要搭车者]
who want to share long-distance journeys together.Offers a ride – Connecting platform(Bla Bla Car) – Needs a ride
旅途的平均行程是320公里
The average ride taken is 320 kilometers.
所以你最好明智地选择自己的旅伴
So it’s a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely.
社交网站的个人信息和评论可以助你一臂之力
Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice.
你可以了解到对方吸烟与否 喜欢的音乐类型
You can see if someone’s a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like,
以及是否会带着宠物狗一同上路
you can see if they’re going to bring their dog along for the ride.
但事实上 人们最关注的社交习惯
But it turns out that the key social identifier
是旅途中你是否健谈
is how much you’re going to talk in the car.
bla 代表着话不多
Bla, not a lot,
bla bla 代表你想要简单的寒暄
bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat,
bla bla bla 则代表着你能滔滔不绝的从伦敦
and bla bla bla, you’re not going to stop talking the entire way
侃到巴黎
from London to Paris.
真是不可思议 是吧 这个与我们儿时被灌输的
It’s remarkable, right, that this idea works at all,
不要与陌生人拼车的思想 相背离的思想
cause it’s counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child:
竟然被接受了
never get in a car with a stranger.
而且BlaBlaCar每月输送的乘客
And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people
超过四百万人次
every single month.
这是什么概念呢
To put that in context, that’s more passengers
就是说 这比欧洲之星或者美国捷蓝航空公司的运营量还大
than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry.
BlaBlaCar完美展现了 科技是如何帮助人们
BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling
实现在全球范围内的信任关系的飞跃的
millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.
当我们甘愿冒险做些新的不同寻常的举动时
A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different
就会产生信任上的飞跃
to the way that we’ve always done it.
我们来一起想象一下
Let’s try to visualize this together.
好的 请大家闭上眼睛
OK. I want you to close your eyes.
那边有一位男士瞪大眼睛盯着我
There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open.
我知道自己正站在这个大的红圈上 我看得见的
I’m on this big red circle. I can see.
快把眼睛闭上吧
So close your eyes.
我会和大家一起做
I’ll do it with you.
请想象一下 你和某个陌生事物之间
And I want you to imagine there exists a gap
有一条鸿沟
between you and something unknown.
它可以是你刚刚遇到的某个人
That unknown can be someone you’ve just met.
或是你从未去过的某个地方
It can be a place you’ve never been to.
抑或是你从未尝试过的某件事
It can be something you’ve never tried before.
想象到了吗
You got it?
好 大家可以睁开眼睛了
OK. You can open your eyes now.
你要冒险从一个熟悉的环境
For you to leap from a place of certainty,
去接触未知的人或事物
to take a chance on that someone or something unknown,
这就需要某种力量来推你一把
you need a force to pull you over the gap,
这种非凡的力量就是信任
and that remarkable force is trust.
信任不可捉摸
Trust is an elusive concept,
然而我们的生命活动却依赖于它
and yet we depend on it for our lives to function.
晚上 当我的孩子们说他们会马上熄灯时
I trust my children
我相信他们
when they say they’re going to turn the lights out at night.
我相信飞行员可以安全地把我带到这儿
I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe.
我们总把这个词儿挂在嘴边
It’s a word we use a lot,
却未必会常思考它真正的含义
without always thinking about what it really means
以及它在不同生活情景中的作用
and how it works in different contexts of our lives.
实际上信任的定义有数百种
There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust,
大部分可以概括为对事物正常运转的可能性
and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment
给予的某种风险评估
of how likely it is that things will go right.
但我不喜欢这种定义
But I don’t like this definition of trust,
因为这样听起来 信任是理性且可预测的
because it makes trust sound rational and predictable,
而且它并未触及到人性层面
and it doesn’t really get to the human essence
即引导我们的行为
of what it enables us to do
促使我们
and how it empowers us
与他人交流
to connect with other people.
所以我所定义的信任略有不同
So I define trust a little differently.
我把它定义为 对未知事物的自信
I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown.
现在 当你通过这个镜头观察
Now, when you view trust through this lens,
它会告诉你 信任为何有这种独特的力量
it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity
使我们能够应对不确定性
to enable us to cope with uncertainty,
对陌生人予以信任
to place our faith in strangers,
并且一路高歌猛进
to keep moving forward.
人类跨越信任鸿沟的行为
Human beings are remarkable
一向卓越非凡
at taking trust leaps.
你还记得第一次在网上
Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details
输信用卡信息时的场景吗
into a website?
那就是一次信任的飞跃
That’s a trust leap.
我清楚地记得我曾告诉父亲
I distinctly remember telling my dad
自己想在易贝网买辆深蓝色二手标致汽车
that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay,
他一本正经地指出
and he rightfully pointed out
卖家的名字叫“无形男巫”
that the seller’s name was “Invisible Wizard”
那么买这辆车也许并不明智
and then this probably was not such a good idea.
我的工作和研究聚焦于科技是如何
So my work, my research focuses on how technology
转变社会中的社交紧密度
is transforming the social glue of society,
以及人与人之间的信任关系
trust between people,
而且这是一个引人入胜的研究领域
and it’s a fascinating area to study,
因为它仍存在很多未解之谜
because there’s still so much we do not know.
例如 在数字环境中 男性和女性的信任方式有差异吗?
For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments?
互信方式的建立由线下转为线上了吗
Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online?
信任会转移吗
Does trust transfer?
所以如果你相信在Tinder上可以找到人生伴侣
So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder,
那么是否更应相信用BlaBlaCar能找到顺风车呢?
are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?
但是 通过对数百家网站及市场的研究来看
But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces,
人们遵从一种共有的模式
there is a common pattern that people follow,
我称其为 “循序渐进的模式”
and I call it “climbing the trust stack.”
就以BlaBlaCar来说吧
Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life.
第一层次
On the first level,
你要接受这个想法
you have to trust the idea.
即 你必须要相信
So you have to trust
拼车这个想法是安全且值得一试的
the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying.
第二个层次 要对平台有信心
The second level is about having confidence in the platform,
要相信BlaBlaCar会帮你解决突发状况
that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong.
第三个层次是 利用少量的信息
And the third level is about using little bits of information
来确定旅伴是否可靠
to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.
我们第一次攀登信任之峦时
Now, the first time we climb the trust stack,
感觉怪异甚至凶险异常
it feels weird, even risky,
但在达到某种程度后 就会意识到 这些想法似乎完全正常
but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal.
我们行为转变的速度
Our behaviors transform,
通常相当之快
often relatively quickly.
换句话说 信任促进改变与创新
In other words, trust enables change and innovation.
有个想法引起了我的兴趣 希望大家也考虑一下
So an idea that intrigued me, and I’d like you to consider,
我们能否透过信任的镜头
is whether we can better understand
更好地理解
major ways of disruption and change in individuals in society
摧毁与改变社会个体的种种方式
through the lens of trust.
好吧 结果证明 在人类历史的浩瀚长河中
Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved
仅有三次关于信任的重要变革:
in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history:
局部改革 制度上的改革
local, institutional
以及我们如今正在进入的 分布式改革
and what we’re now entering, distributed.
所以在19世纪中期前的
So for a long time,
很长时间内
until the mid-1800s,
信任仅建立于组织严密的关系中
trust was built around tight-knit relationships.
所以 假如我和前五排观众
So say I lived in a village
生活在同一个村庄
with the first five rows of this audience,
我们彼此知根知底
and we all knew one another,
如果我想借钱
and say I wanted to borrow money,
那位先前瞪大眼睛的男士可能会借给我
The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me,
如果我不还钱
and if I didn’t pay him back,
大家都会知道我是个老赖
you’d all know I was dodgy.
我就会声名狼藉
I would get a bad reputation,
大家将来也会拒绝与我做生意
and you would refuse to do business with me in the future.
信任大多是局部团体内的并且基于人的负责任态度
Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.
19世纪中叶
In the mid-19th century,
社会经历巨大变迁
society went through a tremendous amount of change.
人们迁移至快速发展的城市 如伦敦和旧金山
People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco,
一位本地银行家被并不了解我们的
and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations
大公司所取代
that didn’t know us as individuals.
我们开始将信任
We started to place our trust
置于合约 保险 规则等的
into black box systems of authority,
权力黑箱系统之中
things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance,
对他人的直接信任却下降了
and less trust directly in other people.
信任开始基于制度及委托关系
Trust became institutional and commission-based.
机构及许多公司品牌的可信度持续下降的话题
It’s widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands
已经传的沸沸扬扬
has been steadily declining and continues to do so.
我不断地被很多违反信任机制的行为震惊:
I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust:
新闻集团电话窃听
the News Corp phone hacking,
大众汽车排放丑闻
the Volkswagen emissions scandal,
天主教堂里普遍的虐待行为
the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church,
金融大危机后 仅有一个普通银行职员
the fact that only one measly banker
入狱的事实
went to jail after the great financial crisis,
或是最近巴拿马文件透露的
or more recently the Panama Papers
富人如何建立离境避税天堂
that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes.
而且真正让我诧异的是
And the thing that really surprises me
当我们的信任崩塌时
is why do leaders find it so hard
为什么领导人会觉得
to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize,
真心实意的道歉有这么难
when our trust is broken?
不难推断 基于制度上的信任 毫无用处
It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn’t working
因为我们已经对
because we are fed up
虚伪的精英们的厚颜无耻忍无可忍
with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites,
但是当下的情形
but what’s happening now
比对体系结构和规模的诘责 更甚一步
runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions.
我们开始意识到
We’re starting to realize
基于制度的信任
that institutional trust
并不适合数字时代
wasn’t designed for the digital age.
对品牌 领袖和整个体系的信任的建立
Conventions of how trust is built,
管理 失去和修复——
managed, lost and repaired —
其相关的惯例
in brands, leaders and entire systems —
已经被完全颠覆
is being turned upside down.
现在的情况令人兴奋
Now, this is exciting,
但也令人恐惧
but it’s frightening,
因为这迫使我们反思
because it forces many of us to have to rethink
与顾客 职员甚至爱人间的信任
how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees,
是如何建立和毁掉的
even our loved ones.
几天前 我跟一个国际领先的酒店品牌的CEO聊天
The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand,
如往常一样 我们谈到Airbnb这个话题
and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb.
他坦言自己对于这家公司的成功感到困惑
And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success.
他不明白
He was perplexed at how a company
基于陌生人相互信任 这样一个愿景的公司
that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another
是如何做到在191个国家经营得风生水起的
could work so well across 191 countries.
所以我对他说 我得跟你说实话
So I said to him that I had a confession to make,
然后他有点奇怪地看着我
and he looked at me a bit strangely,
我说——
and I said —
我确定你们中很多人会和我一样——
and I’m sure many of you do this as well —
在离开酒店时
I don’t always bother to hang my towels up
不会费心挂起毛巾
when I’m finished in the hotel,
但作为Airbnb的房客 绝不会这样做
but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb.
理由就是
And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb
房客知道 房东会对他们进行评价
is because guests know that they’ll be rated by hosts,
而这种评价会影响到
and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability
他们未来的投宿
to transact in the future.
这只是一个线上信任改变我们
It’s a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors
现实生活的简单例子
in the real world,
使我们以自己都无法想象的方式
make us more accountable
负起责任来
in ways we cannot yet even imagine.
我不是说我们不需要酒店
I am not saying we do not need hotels
或传统权威机构了
or traditional forms of authority.
但我们不得不承认
But what we cannot deny
我们社会的信任流通方式已然改变
is that the way trust flows through society is changing,
它带来的结果是惊人的 它使得我们从
and it’s creating this big shift away from the 20th century
20世纪的制度性信任转换为21世纪的分布式信任
that was defined by institutional trust towards the 21st century that will be fueled by distributed trust.
信任不再是自上而下 而是分门别类 自下而上
Trust is no longer top-down. It’s being unbundled and inverted.
不再是含混不清或是一目了然
It’s no longer opaque and linear.
一种新型的基于责任感的信任正在兴起
A new recipe for trust is emerging that once again is distributed amongst people
并且又一次扩散开来
and is accountability-based.
这种转换只会随着
And this shift is only going to accelerate
区块链的兴起而加速发展
with the emergence of the blockchain,
这种创新的分类技术也是比特币的技术基础
the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin.
现在 坦白的说
Now let’s be honest,
环顾周围 区块链的运作方式是令人震惊的
getting our heads around the way blockchain works is mind-blowing.
其中一个原因就是它需要处理
And one of the reasons why is it involves processing
一些有着可怕名称的复杂概念
some pretty complicated concepts with terrible names.
比如 密码算法和散列函数
I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions,
还有被称为矿工的人们来负责核实交易——
and people called miners, who verify transactions —
所有这些都是由中本聪这个或是这群
all that was created by this mysterious person
神秘的人创造出来的
or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto.
现在 想象中的信任的大跃进发展还没有成真
Now, that is a massive trust leap that hasn’t happened yet.
不过我们可以想象一下这个
But let’s try to imagine this.
《经济学人》杂志将区块链形象地描述为
So “The Economist” eloquently described the blockchain
将事物确切化的伟大链环
as the great chain of being sure about things.
说得更简单一点 就是将区块看作
The easiest way I can describe it is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets,
填满数据的单元格
and they are filled with assets.
所以那可能是一份财产契据
So that could be a property title.
一桩股票交易
It could be a stock trade.
或是一种创新型资产 比如一支歌曲的版权
It could be a creative asset, such as the rights to a song.
每次 物品从寄存器的某处
Every time something moves
移至其它地方
from one place on the register to somewhere else,
在区块链上都是有时间证明
that asset transfer is time-stamped
及正式记录的
and publicly recorded on the blockchain.
就这么简单 对吧
It’s that simple. Right.
所以区块链真正的意义是
So the real implication of the blockchain
除去了对任何第三方信托机构的需求 比如律师
is that it removes the need for any kind of third party, such as a lawyer,
信用中介 或是能促进交易的非政府性机构
or a trusted intermediary, or maybe not a government intermediary to facilitate the exchange.
所以如果回到之前的信用层次
So if we go back to the trust stack,
你还是要信任这个想法
you still have to trust the idea,
信任这个平台
you have to trust the platform,
但却不需要信任传统观念里的其他人
but you don’t have to trust the other person in the traditional sense.
这点很有意义
The implications are huge.
互联网以同样的方式打开全民信息共享的大门
In the same way the internet blew open the doors to an age of information available to everyone,
区块链将会在全球范围彻底革新信任机制
the blockchain will revolutionize trust on a global scale.
我特意等着结束前提一下优步
Now, I’ve waited to the end intentionally to mention Uber,
因为我意识到它是一个有争议的
because I recognize that it is a contentious
被用滥了的例子
and widely overused example,
但在信任发展的新的时代背景下 它却是一个很好的研究案例
but in the context of a new era of trust, it’s a great case study.
现在 我们会看到一些滥用分布式信任的案例
Now, we will see cases of abuse of distributed trust.
这些我们已经看到了 而且情况还会愈演愈烈
We’ve already seen this, and it can go horribly wrong.
看到满世界的出租车组织都在抗议 我一点也不惊奇
I am not surprised that we are seeing protests from taxi associations all around the world
他们宣称优步不安全 并希望政府以此将其取缔
trying to get governments to ban Uber based on claims that it is unsafe.
举行抗议的那段时间我刚好在伦敦
I happened to be in London the day that these protests took place,
并且碰巧注意到一条来自英国贸易部长马特•汉考克的推特
and I happened to notice a tweet from Matt Hancock, who is a British minister for business.
他写道
And he wrote,
“谁能给我讲讲你们聊的这个优步是怎么回事
“Does anyone have details of this #Uber app everyone’s talking about?
我怎么之前从来没听说过它”
I’d never heard of it until today.”
现在 出租车组织
Now, the taxi associations,
他们默认了信用层次的第一层
they legitimized the first layer of the trust stack.
将曾经试图消除的主意合法化了
They legitimized the idea that they were trying to eliminate,
优步签约率在24小时内上升了850%
and sign-ups increased by 850 percent in 24 hours.
这个例子有力的说明
Now, this is a really strong illustration
一旦围绕某个行为或部门的信任发生转变了
of how once a trust shift has happened around a behavior or an entire sector,
你将无法“复辟”
you cannot reverse the story.
每天都有500万人经历着信任的飞跃
Every day, five million people will take a trust leap
并用优步打车
and ride with Uber.
在中国的网约车平台滴滴上面
In China, on Didi, the ride-sharing platform,
每天有1100万次乘车记录
11 million rides taken every day.
也就是每秒127次
That’s 127 rides per second,
说明这是一种跨越文化的共性
showing that this is a cross-cultural phenomenon.
有趣之处在于 司机和乘客都宣称
And the fascinating thing is that both drivers and passengers report
看见姓名
that by seeing a name
照片和等级
and seeing someone’s photo and their rating
会让他们觉得安心些
makes them feel safer,
正如你可能经历过的那样
and as you may have experienced,
司乘双方的言谈举止都更加和善
even behave a little more nicely in the taxi cab.
优步和滴滴虽然出现得较早 但却有力的说明
Uber and Didi are early but powerful examples
技术能够以不同的方式革新人们之间的信任关系
of how technology is creating trust between people
这种规模在以前是绝不可能的
in ways and on a scale never possible before.
今天 我们很多人觉得搭乘陌生人的车很舒服
Today, many of us are comfortable getting into cars driven by strangers.
我们偶遇某人 右划屏幕来与其匹配
We meet up with someone we swiped right to be matched with.
与陌生人分享房屋
We share our homes with people we do not know.
这仅仅是个开始
This is just the beginning,
因为正在崩解的
because the real disruption happening
不是技术性的东西
isn’t technological.
而是其带来的信任的转变
It’s the trust shift it creates,
对我而言 我想帮助人们理解这个信任新纪元
and for my part, I want to help people understand this new era of trust
从而使我们能够正确地体会它
so that we can get it right
而且我们可以把握机遇去重新设计
and we can embrace the opportunities to redesign systems
更透明 更具包容性和更有责任感的系统
that are more transparent, inclusive and accountable.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
谢谢
Thank you.

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译制信息
视频概述

一直以来,都认为人和人之间的信任关系是要经过长久的相处之后才能形成的。随着科技的日新月异,信任关系的发展似乎也飞速向前,超乎想象。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

启点—飞雪群山

审核员

祐子祐

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqGksNRYu8s

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