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新能源之路

We need nuclear power to solve climate change | Joe Lassiter

[启点字幕组]
Light up the world
人们很容易忽略 昨天晚上
It’s easy to forget that last night,
有十亿人在没有一丝灯光的黑暗中入睡
one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity.
整整十亿人呐
One billion people.
有25亿人还没用上清洁的烹饪能源
Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels
或加热燃料
or clean heating fuels.
那些都是发展中国家存在的问题
Those are the problems in the developing world.
那些人与我们相隔万里
And it’s easy for us not to be empathetic
(因此)对他们缺少同情心也是情有可原的
with those people who seem so distanced from us.
但 即便身处发达国家
But even in our own world, the developed world,
我们也感受到了经济停滞所带来的压力
we see the tension of stagnant economies
正影响着周围人们的生活
impacting the lives of people around us.
(这一点)从低迷的全球经济可以看出来
We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
深陷其中的人们对未来不抱希望
where the people involved have lost hope about the future
对现实也感到绝望
and despair about the present.
从英国投票脱欧可以看出来
We see that in the Brexit vote.
从桑德斯和特朗普的竞选活动中可以看出来
We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country.
甚至那些近年来
But even in countries as recently turning the corner
正转型为发达国家的发展中国家(也是如此)
towards being in the developed world,
在中国
in China,
我们看到习主席在煤炭和采矿行业
we see the difficulty that President Xi has
解雇那么多 看不到未来的人们 的时候
as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries
所面临的难题
who see no future for themselves.
人类社会要想办法解决
As we as a society figure out how to manage
发达国家
the problems of the developed world
以及发展中国家存在的问题
and the problems of the developing world,
就必须制定出可持续发展的政策
we have to look at how we move forward
并控制这些决策对环境造成的影响
and manage the environmental impact of those decisions.
从《里约宣言》 《京都议定书》的签订开始
We’ve been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio,
25年来 我们一直致力解决这个问题
the Kyoto Protocols.
最近一次努力是已经获得世界各国一致通过的
Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,
《巴黎协定》的签订
and the resulting climate agreements
以及随后签订的气候变化协议
that are being ratified by nations around the world.
我认为我们应该
I think we can be very hopeful
对这些自下而上达成的协议充满信心
that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements,
(这些协议)都是与会各国承诺能够做到的
where nations have said what they think they can do,
这对大多数国家都将产生真正而又积极的作用
are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties.
现在遗憾的是 当我们看到这份独立分析
The unfortunate thing is that now, as we look at the independent analyses
证明那些气候协议容易妥协退让的时候
of what those climate treaties are liable to yield,
眼下问题的严重性就变得不言而喻
the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear.
这是美国能源信息署的评估报告
This is the United States Energy Information Agency’s assessment
可以看出 从现在起到2040年间 倘若与会各国
of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments
能够兑现他们在巴黎签订的气候协议上的承诺
that they’ve made in Paris
(世界)会发生怎样的变化
between now and 2040.
报告基本呈现了未来30年
It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world
地球二氧化碳的排放量
over the next 30 years.
有三件事你应该关注一下
There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate.
第一 未来30年
One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow
二氧化碳的排放量将持续增长
for the next 30 years.
为了控制气候变化
In order to control climate,
二氧化碳排放量应该逐步降至零
CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
因为它是全球变暖的首恶元凶
because it’s the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet.
这表明我们的努力程度 不及矿物燃料的排放速度
This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels.
第二个值得注意的是
The second thing you should notice
增长的二氧化碳排放来自于发展中国家
is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries,
比如中国 印度以及其他国家
from China, from India, from the rest of the world,
包括南非 印度尼西亚和巴西等等
which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil,
这些国家的人民
as most of these countries move their people
生活环境变得更差
into the lower range of lifestyles
这在我们发达国家逐渐被看作是理所当然的事情
that we literally take for granted in the developed world.
最后值得注意的一点是 每年
The final thing that you should notice is that each year,
大约有100亿吨碳被排放到大气层
about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet’s atmosphere,
随后扩散到海洋和土壤中
and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land.
如今地球上的碳排放达5500亿吨
That’s on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today.
30年后
At the end of 30 years,
我们向大气中排放的碳将达到8500亿吨
we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air,
控制地表温度的上升范围在2到4度
and that probably goes a long way
控制海洋酸化
towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures,
控制海平面上升
locking in ocean acidification
将任重而道远
and locking in sea level rise.
这是由人类的社会活动
Now, this is a projection made by men
所造成的影响
by the actions of society,
我们应该主动去改变 而非被动接受
and it’s ours to change, not to accept.
但我们尤其需要关注问题的严重程度
But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate.
不同的国家会选择不同的能源
Different nations make different energy choices.
这是由他们的自然资源所决定的
It’s a function of their natural resources.
是由他们的气候条件所决定的
It’s a function of their climate.
是由他们所选择的社会发展道路所决定的
It’s a function of the development path that they’ve followed as a society.
是由他们所处的地理位置决定的
It’s a function of where on the surface of the planet they are.
他们是处于光照时间短
Are they where it’s dark a lot of the time,
或中纬度地区吗
or are they at the mid-latitudes?
很多很多因素都能左右这些国家的选择
Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries,
而每个因素都会导致不同的选择
and they each make a different choice.
我们最需要关注的是
The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate
中国所做的选择
is the choice that China has made.
中国在过去
China has made the choice,
以及未来的选择 都是继续使用煤炭
and will make the choice, to run on coal.
美国有可替代的能源
The United States has an alternative.
由于水力压裂法的发明以及丰富的页岩气资源
It can run on natural gas
(美国)可以继续使用天然气
as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas,
我们这儿就有
which we have here.
它们能提供可替代能源
They provide an alternative.
欧洲经合组织也有其选择
The OECD Europe has a choice.
德国着重发展可再生资源
It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany
因为它国富力强
because it’s rich enough to afford to do it.
法国和英国对核能很有兴趣
The French and the British show interest in nuclear power.
东欧仍然十分依赖天然气和煤炭
Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal,
(他们的)天然气来自于俄罗斯
and with natural gas that comes from Russia,
所有的纠纷也都与俄罗斯有关
with all of its entanglements.
而中国几乎别无选择
China has many fewer choices
在能源的选择方面捉襟见肘
and a much harder row to hoe.
如果你关注中国 可能不禁要问
If you look at China, and you ask yourself
为什么煤炭对中国那么重要
why has coal been important to it,
这就要追溯一下中国的发展历程了
you have to remember what China’s done.
中国把人推向能源 而不是把能源带给人
China brought people to power, not power to people.
中国并没有实行农村电气化
It didn’t do rural electrification.
而是实行了城市化
It urbanized.
通过利用廉价劳动力和低成本能源
It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy,
创造出口产业而实现城市化
creating export industries
这种做法能实现巨大的经济增长
that could fund a tremendous amount of growth.
看着中国的(发展)道路
If we look at China’s path,
我们都知道 中国的社会财富获得了显著的增加
all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased.
20世纪80年代 中国80%的人口
In 1980, 80 percent of China’s population
生活在绝对贫困线以下
lived below the extreme poverty level,
每人每天仅有不足1.9美元的生活费
below the level of having $1.90 per person per day.
到2000年 只有20%的人口
By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China’s population
生活在绝对贫困线以下——
lived below the extreme poverty level —
真是了不起的成绩啊
a remarkable feat,
诚然 这是以牺牲部分人权为代价的
admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties
而这种代价在西方世界很难被接受
that would be tough to accept in the Western world.
但是财富所带来的效用
But the impact of all that wealth
使人们得到更好的营养
allowed people to get massively better nutrition.
使水管得以布置
It allowed water pipes to be placed.
污水管道得以铺设
It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
极大地降低了腹泻的患病率
dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
代价只是户外环境受到些污染
at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
但在20世纪80年代 甚至今天
But in 1980, and even today,
中国的头号杀手则是室内空气污染
the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution,
因为人们没有清洁的烹饪燃料和供热燃料
because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels.
实际上 到2040年
In fact, in 2040,
估计中国仍有2亿人
it’s still estimated that 200 million people in China
用不上清洁的烹饪燃料
will not have access to clean cooking fuels.
对他们来说 前路漫漫啊
They have a remarkable path to follow.
印度也需要满足国民的需求
India also needs to meet the needs of its own people,
并且打算通过烧煤来获取(所需的)能源
and it’s going to do that by burning coal.
当看到能源信息署对印度煤炭用量的分析时
When we look at the EIA’s projections of coal burning in India,
(我们会发现)印度煤炭所能提供的能量
India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal
大约是其可再生能源(所能提供能量)的四倍
as it will from renewables.
并不是他们不了解可替代能源
It’s not because they don’t know the alternatives;
而是 富有的国家可以主动选择
it’s because rich countries can do what they choose,
但贫穷的国家只能被动接受
poor countries do what they must.
所以 我们要怎样才能及时阻止碳排放呢?
So what can we do to stop coal’s emissions in time?
要怎样才能改变这些预测的数据呢?
What can we do that changes this forecast that’s in front of us?
如果我们用心去做 这些预测是可以改变的
Because it’s a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it.
首先 我们必须考虑到问题的严重性
First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem.
从现在起到2040年的这段时间
Between now and 2040,
全球范围内将会新建800至1600家煤炭厂矿
800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world.
这个星期 就有一千兆瓦到三千兆瓦的煤炭厂矿
This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants
在全球范围投产运营
are being turned on around the world.
事情就这么发生了 对我们的诉求不管不顾
That’s happening regardless of what we want,
因为这些国家的领导者
because the people that rule their countries,
经过评估国民的利益
assessing the interests of their citizens,
认为作出这样的决定是出于对民众利益的考虑
have decided it’s in the interest of their citizens to do that.
除非有更好的替代能源 否则事情还会一如既往
And that’s going to happen unless they have a better alternative.
每一百个这样的工厂
And every 100 of those plants will use up
会消耗地球气候预算的 1%到3%
between one percent and three percent of the Earth’s climate budget.
每天回到家里想一想
So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something
你应该为全球变暖做点什么
about global warming,
到一周结束时 请记住:
at the end of that week, remember:
有人建起煤炭厂矿 而且会一“烧”就是50年
somebody fired up a coal plant that’s going to run for 50 years
并且你拿它没办法
and take away your ability to change it.
我们都已忘了维诺德·科斯拉 这位出生于印度的
What we’ve forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
美国风险资本家 曾经谈论过的话
a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist.
他说 回到二十一世纪初
And he said, back in the early 2000s,
如果想让中国和印度放弃使用矿物燃料
that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels,
你就必须创造出能通过”中印测试“的技术才行
you had to create a technology that passed the “Chindia test,”
“中印”是中国加印度的缩写
“Chindia” being the appending of the two words.
首先 必需要有可行性
It had to be first of all viable,
就是说 在技术层面上 它适用于这些国家
meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country,
并且还要被老百姓接受
and that it would be accepted by the people in the country.
第二 该技术必须具有可比性
Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable,
即 相同时间内 它给人们带来的效益
that it could deliver the same benefits
必须跟矿物燃料带来的效益相当
on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
这样他们才能享受这种生活 同样的 我们认为这是理所当然的
so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted.
第三 在没有补贴或行政干预的情况下
And third, it had to be cost-effective
还能有很高的性价比
without subsidy or without mandate.
这必须靠技术本身的力量
It had to stand on its own two feet;
但是这些人口大国没有这一技术
it could not be maintained for that many people
那些国家得向别的国家请求技术支持
if in fact, those countries had to go begging
而有的国家为了把技术留在国内
or had some foreign country say, “I won’t trade with you,”
会答复你说“我不打算和你做买卖”
in order to get the technology shift to occur.
如果你考虑过中印测试(就会明白)
If you look at the Chindia test,
我们一时半会儿还想不出适合这种测试的可替代能源
we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test.
这也正是能源信息署的预测传递给我们的信息
That’s what the EIA forecast tells us.
中国已建有800千兆瓦的火力发电
China’s building 800 gigawatts of coal,
400千兆瓦的水力发电
400 gigawatts of hydro,
200千兆瓦的核能发电
about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
基于能量等效 使其和间歇度同步
and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency,
大概相当于100千兆瓦的可再生能源
about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
800千兆瓦的火力发电
800 gigawatts of coal.
对其所为 他们比任何国家都清楚代价有多高
They’re doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country,
同时 也比任何国家都明白自身的需求有多大
knowing the need better than any other country.
尽管如此 他们还是会继续下去 直到2040年
But that’s what they’re aiming for in 2040
除非我们能给他们提供更好的选择
unless we give them a better choice.
为此 就不得不适应中印测试
To give them a better choice, it’s going to have to meet the Chindia test.
所有的可替代能源都在这儿
If you look at all the alternatives that are out there,
确实有两种差不多能达到测试要求
there are really two that come near to meeting it.
一种是新核能 我现在就来讲一下
First is this area of new nuclear that I’ll talk about in just a second.
它是正在世界范围内开发的
It’s a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards
新一代核电站
around the world,
相关开发人员表示
and the people who are developing these say
如果可以放手去做 他们可以在2025年之前
we can get them in position to demo by 2025
使设备就位并演示 可以在2030年前测试
and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us.
第二种能够及时问世的可替代能源
The second alternative that could be there in time
是以天然气为支撑的公共事业型太阳能
is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas,
这种能源现在我们已经在用了
which we can use today,
相配套的电池却仍在开发中
versus the batteries which are still under development.
到底是什么拖了新能源的后腿呢
So what’s holding new nuclear back?
是陈规陋习和因循守旧的思维方式
Outdated regulations and yesterday’s mindsets.
在放射卫生方面 我们没有采用最新的科学思维
We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health
来思考如何跟公众沟通
to think how we communicate with the public
以及(如何)控制新核反应堆的测试
and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors.
我们要运用所掌握的新式的科学知识
We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use
来改进 规范核工业的方法
in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry.
第二件事 我们听到一种说法
The second thing is we’ve got a mindset
建一座核电站
that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars
需要25年时间 耗费20亿至50亿美元
to develop a nuclear power plant.
这种想法来源于那些核能诞生地的
That comes from the historical, military mindset
历史的 军事思维
of the places nuclear power came from.
这些新核能企业宣称
These new nuclear ventures are saying
他们输送一度电只要五美分
that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
一年能输送1000亿度电
they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year;
他们可以在2025年之前进行演示
they can demo it by 2025;
在2030年之前就能形成规模送电
and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
只要我们给他们一个机会
if only we give them a chance.
现在 我们基本上是在等待奇迹的发生
Right now, we’re basically waiting for a miracle.
我们需要的是选择权
What we need is a choice.
如果他们不能确保安全 不能保证便宜
If they can’t make it safe, if they can’t make it cheap,
这个项目就不应该动工
it should not be deployed.
但我想要大家做的不是怀着想法空等
But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward,
而是给你们的领导人写信
but write your leaders,
给你所支持的非政府组织的领袖写信
write the head of the NGOs you support,
告诉他们把选择权交给你们
and tell them to give you the choice,
而不是只告诉你既成事实
not the past.
谢谢大家
Thank you very much.

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视频概述

现如今,气候变化已然成为人们关注的焦点,要想解决问题就必须找准问题的根源——可替代能源,当然,事情并不简单。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

启点—飞雪群山

审核员

祐子祐

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8n24ZwZcQ

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