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让我们为气候改变做好准备 – 译学馆
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让我们为气候改变做好准备

Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate

这是我家乡新奥尔兰的天际线
This is the skylineof my hometown, New Orleans.
这是一个适合长大的地方
It was a great place to grow up,
但这也是这世上最脆弱的地方之一
but it’s one of the most vulnerablespots in the world.
一半的城市都已经低于海平面了
Half the city is already below sea level.
在2005年 全世界目睹了
In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans
新奥尔兰和墨西哥湾岸区被凯瑟琳台风所摧毁
and the Gulf Coast weredevastated by Hurricane Katrina.
一千八百三十四人不幸丧命 近三十万人流离失所
One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-sixpeople died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.
在那上面 是我妈妈的屋子-
These are my mother’s, at the top —
尽管那不是她的车
although that’s not her car,
那是被洪水带到上面的
it was carried thereby floodwaters up to the roof —
而下面的 则是我姐姐的
and that’s my sister’s, below.
万幸的是 她们和其他家庭成员都及时逃生了
Fortunately, they and otherfamily members got out in time,
但是正如您所见 她们失去了自己的家园
but they lost their homes,and as you can see,
和里面几乎一切
just about everything in them.
这个世界其余地方也遭遇暴风雨
Other parts of the worldhave been hit by storms
甚至是以一种更毁灭性的方式
in even more devastating ways.
在2008年 飓风纳尔吉斯及其余波
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath
使138 000缅甸人遇害
killed 138,000 in Myanmar.
气候变化正在影响着我们的家园
Climate change is affectingour homes, our communities,
及社区和我们的生活方式 我们需要准备好
our way of life. We should be preparing
面对任何规模
at every scale and at every opportunity.
任何机会这个话题使关于准备好
This talk is about beingprepared for, and resilient to
能时刻适应即将来临的变化和其将为我们的家
the changes that are comingand that will affect our homes
和我们共同的家园:地球所带来的影响
and our collective home, the Earth.
我们将面临的改变不会对每个人造成一样的影响
The changes in these timeswon’t affect us all equally.
这里有很多重大的次生结果
There are importantdistributional consequences,
并且可能与你一直所想的大相径庭
and they’re not what youalways might think.
在新奥尔兰 老年人和需要支撑起整个家庭的主妇们
In New Orleans, the elderlyand female-headed households
是最脆弱的
were among the most vulnerable.
对于那些脆弱 无依无靠的人
For those in vulnerable,low-lying nations,
你怎能等同一美元和失去你的国家
how do you put a dollar valueon losing your country
那你祖先所居住的地方?而且你又能去哪儿呢?
where you ancestors are buried?And where will your people go?
再之他们又怎么适应新的地方?
And how will they cope in a foreign land?
他们是否会因为移民而焦虑
Will there be tensions over immigration,
又或为了争夺匮乏的资源而争吵?
or conflicts over competitionfor limited resources?
这已曾在乍得共和国和苏尔富尔(位于苏丹 译者注)引起过冲突
It’s already fueled conflictsin Chad and Darfur.
喜欢或不喜欢 准备好了或是没有 这 就是我们的未来是的
Like it or not, readyor not, this is our future.
有人在寻找新世界的机遇
Sure, some are lookingfor opportunities in this new world.
那是俄罗斯在海底插上他们的国旗
That’s the Russians plantinga flag on the ocean bottom
去申明矿物所有权 在北极渐渐退去的冰底中
to stake a claim for mineralsunder the receding Arctic sea ice.
但是当这可能会有一些短期获利的同时
But while there might besome short-term individual winners,
我们累计起的损失会远远超过这些
our collective losseswill far outweigh them.
不要舍近求远 就像保险行业挣扎着
Look no further than the insuranceindustry as they struggle
去赔偿灾难的损失
to cope with mounting catastrophic losses
来源于恶劣的天气环境
from extreme weather events.
军队懂得了 他们把气候改变称为
The military gets it.They call climate change
一个威胁倍增器 它们可以威胁稳定和安全
a threat multiplier that couldharm stability and security,
正当全世界的政府正在评估
while governmentsaround the world are evaluating
如何去回应的时候所以
how to respond.
我们能做什么?我们如何准备并去适应?
So what can we do? How canwe prepare and adapt?
我想分享三个例子
I’d like to share three setsof examples, starting with
开始于适应猛烈的暴风雨和洪水
adapting to violent storms and floods.
在新奥尔南 1-10双拱桥
In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,
因其中一个被击垮
with sections knockedout in Katrina, have been rebuilt
已经重建高21码去适应更猛烈的浪潮
21 feet higher to allowfor greater storm surge.
和这些建得更高且高能效的房屋
And these raisedand energy-efficient homes
是“布拉特皮特”和“使它变得更好”(Make it Right)组织建立
were developed by BradPitt and Make It Right
为了有九级防御功能
for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.
这个被摧毁了的教堂是我母亲过去常去的一个
The devastated churchmy mom attends has been
不仅仅被建得更高了 而且还被建成了
not only rebuilt higher,it’s poised to become
这个国家的第一个一星能源教堂
the first Energy Starchurch in the country.
它们运输电源到输电网
They’re selling electricityback to the grid
基于太阳能面板和反光漆油以及其余东西
thanks to solar panels,reflective paint and more.
他们二月份的电费仅仅是48美金
Their March electricitybill was only 48 dollars.
现在这些是新奥尔南重建过程中的案例们
Now these are examples of NewOrleans rebuilding in this way,
但是如果别人能够提前设想这些措施就更好了
but better if others act proactivelywith these changes in mind.
举个例子 在加尔维斯顿有一个弹性结构房
For example, in Galveston,here’s a resilient home
从飓风中得以幸存
that survived Hurricane Ike,
当它周围的建筑都很明显被摧毁殆尽
when others on neighboringlots clearly did not.
与此同时在世界各地 卫星和报警系统
And around the world,satellites and warning systems
正在从像孟加拉国这样的低洼地区拯救生命
are saving lives in flood-proneareas such as Bangladesh.
但是就像技术和基础设施一样重要
But as important as technologyand infrastructure are,
人为因素可能更为重要
perhaps the human elementis even more critical.
我们需要更好的疏散计划和系统
We need better planningand systems for evacuation.
我们需要透彻地理解人们如何做决定
We need to better understandhow people make decisions
当他们面临危机时刻
in times of crisis, and why.
而且为什么虽然真相是很多凯瑟琳台风遇害者都未能使用交通工具
While it’s true that many who died in Katrinadid not have access to transportation,
而有机会使用交通工具的却在暴风雨来临时拒绝离开
others who did refused to leaveas the storm approached,
常常是因为可使用的交通工具和避难所
often because availabletransportation and shelters
都拒绝允许他们带上自己的宠物
refused to allow them to take their pets.
想象一下无法撤离和营救你自己的宠物
Imagine leaving behind your own petin an evacuation or a rescue.
但幸运的是在2006年
Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed
国会通过了宠物撤离及运输标准法案(PETS)
the Pet Evacuation and TransportationStandards Act (Laughter)
-添上了“宠物” -从而改变了之前的情形第二点
— it spells “PETS” — to change that.
为和高温和干旱做好准备
Second, preparing for heat and drought.
农民们正面临着旱灾的挑战
Farmers are facing challengesof drought from Asia
从亚洲到非洲 从澳洲到俄克拉荷马州
to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,
与此同时高温热浪和气候变化紧紧相连
while heat waves linkedwith climate change
已经杀死了成千上万的人
have killed tens of thousands of people
在2003年在西欧 和2010年的俄罗斯
in Western Europe in 2003,and again in Russia in 2010.
在埃塞俄比亚百分之七十 是百分之七-十的人口
In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that’s 7-0percent of the population,
依靠降雨来维持他们的生活
depends on rainfall for its livelihood.
牛津饥荒救济委员会和瑞士再保险公司与洛克菲勒基金会携手
Oxfam and Swiss Re, togetherwith Rockefeller Foundation,
共同帮助像他一样农民们建造山坡梯田
are helping farmers like thisone build hillside terraces
和找寻其余的方法保存用水
and find other ways to conserve water,
但当旱灾来临的时候他们也提供保险赔偿
but they’re also providing for insurancewhen the droughts do come.
这让那些农民坚定了
The stability this providesis giving the farmers
投资的信心
the confidence to invest.
向他们提供可负担的贷款
It’s giving them accessto affordable credit.
这使他们变得更加多产
It’s allowing them to becomemore productive so that
随着时间过去有能力自给自足 从而不需要赞助
they can afford their own insuranceover time, without assistance.
这是一个良性循环 而且是可以在
It’s a virtuous cycle,and one that could be replicated
发展中国家广泛使用的
throughout the developing world.
在致命的1995热浪中
After a lethal 1995 heat wave
让冷藏车从芝加哥节日流行口味
turned refrigeratortrucks from the popular
变成了停尸房
Taste of Chicago festivalinto makeshift morgues,
芝加哥变成了广为人知的领导者
Chicago became a recognized leader,
迈出了城市热岛效应
tamping down on the urbanheat island impact
借助于开放避暑中心
through opening cooling centers,
到到脆弱的郊区
outreach to vulnerableneighborhoods, planting trees,
种植树木建立凉爽的或者植物覆盖的屋顶
creating cool whiteor vegetated green roofs.
这座市政厅的绿色屋顶
This is City Hall’s green roof, next to CookCounty’s [portion of the] roof,
较为内部温度 表面温度高77华氏度
which is 77 degrees Fahrenheithotter at the surface.
华盛顿在去年实际上带领了这个国家
Washington, D.C., last year,actually led the nation
建立绿色屋顶 而他们也通过
in new green roofs installed,and they’re funding this in part
5分钱的塑料袋税收来为这项工程提供资金
thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.
他们同时与家庭和建筑所有者
They’re splitting the costof installing these green roofs
共同分担建设绿色屋顶的费用
with home and building owners.
这种屋顶不仅能调节城市热岛效应
The roofs not only temperurban heat island impact
同时还能节约能源
but they save energy, and therefore money,
金钱以及减少温室气体
the emissions that cause climate change,
同时也能起到排水效果
and they also reduce stormwater runoff.
因此有些解决酷暑的手段能够带来双赢第三点
So some solutions to heat canprovide for win-win-wins.
适应海平面上升
Third, adapting to rising seas.
海平面上升威胁沿海地区生态
Sea level rise threatens coastalecosystems, agriculture,
农业系统甚至主要城市 这是一
even major cities. Thisis what one to two meters
两米左右海平面上升在湄公河看起来的样子
of sea level rise lookslike in the Mekong Delta.
那里是越南一半粮食的产地
That’s where halfof Vietnam’s rice is grown.
基础设施将会被影响
Infrastructure is going to be affected.
通往全世界的机场就建立在这里
Airports around the worldare located on the coast.
这很合理 对吧?因为这里是一片空地
It makes sense, right? There’s open space,
飞机可以起飞降落而不用担心
the planes can take off and landwithout worrying about
产生噪音或去躲避高楼大厦
creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.
这里只是一个例子
Here’s just one example,San Francisco Airport,
旧金山机场受16英尺左右的洪水泛滥袭击
with 16 inches or more of flooding.
想像一下用于保护
Imagine the staggering cost of protecting
重要基础设施的堤坝的费用
this vital infrastructure with levees.
但是与此同时可能有
But there might be some changes in store
你不能预测的变化
that you might not imagine. For example,
比如飞机需要更多的跑道去起飞
planes require more runway for takeoff
因为高温 不稠密的空气 不能提供足够的升力
because the heated, less denseair, provides for less lift.
旧金山还花费四千万美元
San Francisco is alsospending 40 million dollars
去反思和重建下水道处理系统
to rethink and redesign itswater and sewage treatment,
因为像这样的排水渠口也可能被海水淹没
as water outfall pipes like thisone can be flooded with seawater,
从而危害植物
causing backups at the plant,harming the bacteria
滋生细菌需要建立设施来处理这些浪费
that are needed to treat the waste.
因此需要更新这些排水管道
So these outfall pipeshave been retrofitted
防止海水进入排水系统
to shut seawateroff from entering the system.
除了这些技术层面的措施意外
Beyond these technical solutions, our work
我们位于乔治城气候中心和社区共同工作
at the Georgetown ClimateCenter with communities
鼓励他们参考现存的法律和政策
encourages them to look at what existinglegal and policy tools are available
并且考虑如何才能适应变化譬如
and to consider how they canaccommodate change.
用地 哪片地区你想要
For example, in land use,which areas do you want
通过用建设防波堤的方式去保护
to protect, through addinga seawall, for example,
再比方通过升高建筑
alter, by raisingbuildings, or retreat from,
或向后搬迁去允许重要的自然系统迁徙
to allow the migrationof important natural systems,
比方说湿地或者沙滩?
such as wetlands or beaches?
这里同时有其余的例子
Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,
在英国泰晤士河保护伦敦免遭于风暴潮袭击
the Thames Barrier protectsLondon from storm surge.
亚洲城市气候变迁韧性组织
The Asian Cities Climate[Change] Resilience Network
正在修复类似于红树林的重要的生态系统
is restoring vital ecosystemslike forest mangroves.
这些生态系统不仅仅是本身是重要的
These are not only importantecosystems in their own right,
而且同时充当了缓冲区的作用来保护内陆地区
but they also serve as a bufferto protect inland communities.
纽约在暴风雨面前显得十分脆弱
New York City is incrediblyvulnerable to storms,
就想你在这块指示牌上看到的一样 纽约同时也经不住海平面上升
as you can see from this cleversign, and to sea level rise,
和暴风雨 正如你从这幅纽约地铁涨水图中看见的一样
and to storm surge, as you cansee from the subway flooding.
但是当我们返回到地面 这些上升的地铁通风格栏
But back above ground, theseraised ventilation grates
系统提醒我们措施可以同时
for the subway system showthat solutions can be both
是有功能效应且引人注意的 事实上
functional and attractive.In fact, in New York,
纽约旧金山和伦敦 设计师们已经设想出了
San Francisco and London,designers have envisioned
能更加契合自然并且
ways to better integratethe natural and built environments
兼顾应对自然变化的建设方法
with climate change in mind.
我认为这些设想都是十分打动人心的例子
I think these are inspiringexamples of what’s possible
让我们认为自己有能力去改变这个世界
when we feel empowered to planfor a world that will be different.
但是现在
But now, a word of caution.
请谨记着对这些专家而言适应也是十分重要的为什么?
Adaptation’s too importantto be left to the experts.
因为就没有所谓的专家
Why? Well, there are no experts.
我们正在进入一个全新的领域
We’re entering unchartedterritory, and yet
而目前为止我们的专长和系统都仅仅是建立于过去的
our expertise and our systemsare based on the past.
“平稳”是我们将使用于未来的准则
“Stationarity” is the notionthat we can anticipate the future
基于经验 同时随机应变
based on the past, and plan accordingly,
与此同时 这也是一个领导我们当今工程
and this principle governsmuch of our engineering,
当今设计核心基础设施 城市排水系统
our design of criticalinfrastructure, city water systems,
建筑规范 甚至用水权以及其余判例的词
building codes, even water rightsand other legal precedents.
但是我们在也不能仅仅依靠建立规范了
But we can simply no longerrely on established norms.
我们已经超如了地球上已经恪守了成千上万年
We’re operating outside the boundsof CO2 concentrations
的二氧化碳浓度限制
that the planet has seenfor hundreds of thousands of years.
我在这里想说的是
The larger point I’mtrying to make is this.
这是我们的责任去照顾我们的家园和社会
It’s up to us to lookat our homes and our communities,
我们的脆弱且易暴露于危险之中的家园
our vulnerabilitiesand our exposures to risk,
不仅仅是去找寻一个生存的办法 而是一个繁荣兴旺的办法
and to find ways to not justsurvive, but to thrive,
而且这是我们的责任去规划和准备
and it’s up to us to plan and to prepare
和提醒我们的政府领导并且要求他们
and to call on our governmentleaders and require them
去做同样的事 即便与此同时他们正在
to do the same, even while they address
强调潜伏的气候变化原因
the underlying causes of climate change.
这没有权宜之计
There are no quick fixes.
这里没有完全之策
There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.
我们只有从实践中学习
We’re all learning by doing.
关键词是做去
But the operative word is doing.
去实践谢谢
Thank you. (Applause)
(掌声)(掌声)
(Applause)

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