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关于潜在外星人的令人不安的理论(&费米悖论的解决方案)

Unsettling Theories About Potential Aliens (& Solutions to The Fermi Paradox)

It is a strange moment in adolescence
青春期的某一个奇怪瞬间
when you first start to truly comprehend
当你第一次开始真正领悟
the concept of where you are—
自己所处之地的概念
your position on a solitary planet in a vast,
你明白自己在广阔空间中的一颗孤星上
seemingly unending space of some strange,
周围是看似无穷无尽的宇宙
incomprehensibly immense thing we call universe.
包含着一些陌生且不可思议的无边物质
Around this same time,
与此同时
we realize not only the absurdity of this bizarre condition,
我们不仅意识到这种古怪境况的荒谬
but also, despite our surroundings being so apparently massive, potentially infinite,
而且 即便我们四周是如此巨大 很可能无穷大
rife with other stuff, other galaxies, other planets, other stars, and so on.
并充斥了其它的物种 星系 星球 行星等等
Somehow, we also appear to be, potentially, alone.
不知怎的 我们也很有可能是独孤的存在
One can’t help but question how could this be the case?
人不禁问了 怎么会是这种情况呢?
How could we be the only ones?
人类怎么可能是唯一呢?
With the observable universe being about 90 billion light years in diameter,
可观测宇宙有大约900亿光年的直径
roughly about 13.8 billion years old,
粗略估计存在了138亿年
with likely around 10 to 12 billion years of stable conditions,
期间有大约100到120亿年的稳定期
containing trillions of planets
包含了亿万个星球
within habitable zones potentially suitable for life,
存在于可能适宜生命生存的宜居带中
where it would really only have taken one early form of life
这本可以使一种早期生命的形态
to develop and evolve enough over just millions of years
通过仅几百万年的时间发展和充分进化
to have colonized an entire galaxy or more by now,
然后殖民于整个星系或者更广的地方
it is puzzling, at the very least,
但现实却很令人迷惑
to consider that despite all of this,
抛开上文所述的这些
the universe is not teeming with other intelligent life,
宇宙似乎并非充满了其他智慧生命
let alone no apparent confirmed signs at all.
也没有切实的迹象和证据证明它们存在
The curious nature of this is what is known as the fermi paradox.
这种奇怪的现象被称为“费米悖论”
The fermi paradox essentially proposes
费米悖论从本质上来说
that it is not merely ominous and mysterious in general
是我们可能处于孤立状态的一种说法
that we appear to be alone,
不仅是不祥和神秘的
but it is also logically and mathematically disjointed
同时 从逻辑学和数学上看
from what many physicists and other experts
许多物理学家和专家主张的观点
argue should be the case.
也都是这样的
Ever since and prior to the fermi paradox being conceived,
在费米悖论被设想出来的前后
a number of theories have and continue to form
为了尝试去解决这些问题
that attempt to resolve it.
形成了很多理论
After all, perhaps the premise of the paradox is wrong,
毕竟 也许费米悖论的前提就是错误的
or perhaps it’s standing on false information,
又或许它是建立在错误信息之上的
or perhaps the answer is an answer that doesn’t seem like an answer
再或许是因为我们一直从人类的视角思考
when considered through our anthropocentric intuitions,
所以一直无法了解真实的情况
and rather, must be considered from a more detached mode of thinking.
所以我们必须用更客观的思维方式来思考
The following are seven hypotheses that attempt to do this.
接下来是尝试用客观思考提出的七种假说
Some are original, or at least attempt to be,
有一些是原创 或者说尝试性的原创
some are preexisting, and some are combinations.
有一些是已经提出的 还有一些是新旧结合的
It should also be noted that there is,
当然还应该注意
of course, the separate possibility
一种单独的可能性
that we have knowingly seen other forms of life.
那就是我们其实已经看到了外星生命
There’ve been many UFO sightings and claims of alien encounters over the years,
这些年一直有目击或与外星人相遇的说法
and more recently, there have been even more intriguing sightings
最近 更多诡异的目击事件
confirmed by the Pentagon and other military and government officials.
被五角大楼及其他军方和政府官员证实
However, in so far as anyone knows anyone knows for sure, all sightings are,
然而 目前没有人确切地知道这些是否属实
as best as we can tell, unclear.
至少目前都是不清楚的
And so, let’s grant that we have not seen any other lifeforms,
因此 我们先承认自己没有见过任何外星生命
and even if we have, the question still remains,
即使我们看见了 问题依旧存在
why are they still so infrequent and unobvious?
为什么这些一直如此罕见和难以察觉呢?
Why is the universe not densely packed with life,
为什么宇宙没有密集地充满生命?
some galactic or intergalactic colonies and civilizations?
为什么没有星系或跨星系的殖民和文明?
Why haven’t there been more conclusive visitations or attempts to communicate?
为什么没有更多确切的拜访或尝试性的沟通?
Why is the night sky not lit with a cosmic city
为何夜空并非被“宇宙城市”的光芒点亮
instead of lifeless stars?
而是被死气沉沉的星星照亮呢?
Hypothesis one, the fishbowl hypothesis.
假说1 鱼缸假说
An obvious question that arises when considering the possibility
当我们考虑首次与地外生命接触这个问题时
of a first contact with an extraterrestrial lifeform is,
一个显而易见的问题浮现了:
what could we do if we did?
如果真接触了 我们怎么办?
Could we communicate with them in any meaningful way?
我们能和他们建立有效的沟通吗?
Why should we assume so?
为什么要这样假设呢?
Right now, there are countless species on Earth
因为现在地球上有无数物种
that we cannot communicate with in any meaningful way at all,
不管我们怎么努力 还是没有办法
no matter how hard we try.
跟他们建立有效沟通
And so, even in the best of cases,
因此 即使在最好的情况下
in which another extraterrestrial lifeform was intelligent enough
外来物种有足够高的智慧
to communicate in a traditional sense,
来进行传统意义上的交流
the disparity between our forms of cognition, evolutionary backgrounds, and so forth
双方在认知形式 进化等方面仍存在差异
could still be significant enough to make it
这很可能会导致双方
so that there is not enough common ground to stand on to understand each other.
没有足够的共同点来实现相互理解
However, more relevant to the fermi paradox here
然而 与费米悖论更相关的是
is taking this several steps further.
对这几点进行进一步思考
If it is possible, if not likely,
如果理论正确的话
that we would not be able to communicate with other beings,
我们不可能与其他物种进行交流
is it not also possible that,
也不可能
with sufficiently different biological backgrounds, physical makeups, states of nature,
与生物背景 物理结构 自然状态
conditions and dimensions in time and space, and whatever else,
和时空维度完全不同的任何物种进行交流
the disparity may be so great,
差异是如此之大
we might not even be able to perceive them.
我们甚至可能无法察觉到它们
Or perhaps we can perceive them,
或者我们可以察觉它们
but not with any meaningful distinction or the mental framework
但不能通过任何明显的特征或思维框架
to process that in fact we are.
向他们展示我们是谁
Many of the species we cannot communicate with on Earth right now,
现在地球上仍有很多我们无法建立联系的物种
experience this with us.
现在让我们一起体会一下:
A goldfish in a bowl in a child’s bedroom
金鱼在一个孩子房间的鱼缸中
does not and cannot know
它不会知道
that it is in a human being’s bedroom in a town or city
它们正处在人类世界的城市或乡村的房间里
made and filled with other humans.
这是由其他人类制造的建筑
It does not know that it is fed and interacted with
它不知道喂食和与它互动的是
by a higher form of conscious intelligent life.
一种更高形式的有意识的智慧物种
It does not meaningfully comprehend that there is a human in the room with it,
它不可能理解房间里还有个人
nor what the human is saying if they talk to it,
也不理解这个人类对它说了什么
or why they are doing anything when they do something.
或者他们在做什么及为什么这样做
The fish is confined by the upper limits of its cognition.
鱼被其认知的上限所限制
Is it not possible that this could be the case for us,
鱼不可能和我们人类认知一样
where we are like lower animals to some other species
我们对于外星生命来说也像低级物种
that we cannot see or comprehend the nature of,
我们看不到或理解不了他们的特性
perhaps even in the room with us right now?
或许现在他们正和我们在一个房间?
Two, the containment hypotheses.
假说2 控制假说
Following a similar line of thinking,
遵循类似的思路
it’s also possible that we are not even in the universe
很有可能我们根本不是
in the way we think we are at all.
以我们认知的方式存在于宇宙中
It might be the case,
可能是这样:
not that we are incapable of perceiving some other nearby alien lifeforms,
并不是我们无法感知我们周围的外来物种
but that we are intentionally isolated by them
而是我们被他们有意孤立起来了
in some sort of structure— physical, digital, or otherwise—
以某种物理 数字或其他形式
disconnected and removed from reality outside of it.
与真正的外界隔绝起来了
One version of this is argued for by a hypothesis known as the planetarium hypothesis,
这个理论是基于科幻小说作家斯蒂芬·巴克特
proposed by science fiction auther, Stephen Baxter, in 2001,
在2001年提出的“天文馆假说”
which speculates that when we look out into space,
该假说认为当我们望向天空时
we are actually observing an artificial or virtual rendering
看到的其实是一个人工或虚拟渲染的世界
created by a more advanced civilization,
是由更先进的文明创造的
engineered in such a way to give off the illusion that we are alone.
通过这样的方式让我们产生孤独的错觉
This parallels with the ever-increasing popular theories
这个理论与日益流行的
surrounding the simulation hypothesis,
“模拟假说”相似
which argues that all of existence as we know it
认为我们已知的所有存在
is a computer simulation engineered by some advanced species.
都是由一些先进物种通过计算机模拟的
The forms and reasons for some sort of contained state are endless—
而控制我们的形式和原因则有很多说法
something as simple as entertainment or research for other beings,
有些原因很简单 比如供其它物种娱乐或研究
or something more sinister like being imprisoned or quarantined.
有些原因更险恶 比如要监禁或隔离我们
Or, of course, something else so complex
当然 也可能是其他复杂的原因
we cannot even begin to imagine.
复杂到我们甚至无法想象
Three, the island hypothesis.
假说3 岛屿假说
Still continuing down a similar train of thought,
继续沿着这个类似的思路
it could be the case that we are not contained
可能我们既没有处在任何的
in any removed artificial structure or thing,
人工结构或类似的事情里
nor are we incapable of perceiving some other nearby alien lifeforms around us,
也不能够感知到我们周围的其它物种
but rather, we are left alone in space on purpose.
因为我们是被故意留在了一个孤立空间里
If there was an island in the middle of the ocean that,
如果在海洋中间有一个岛屿
if any humans came anywhere near it,
任何人类靠近它的任何地方
they would be inevitably and horribly be infected by whatever species lived on it,
都会不可避免的被生活在那里物种严重感染
we would all avoid it.
那我们都会避开它
Likewise, if there was a species that lived on the island
同样的 如果生活在岛上的物种
that was capable of outmatching and killing large quantities of humans
能够与人类对抗并且杀死大量的人类
or requiring humans to kill all of them in defense,
或人类为了自卫必须把它们赶尽杀绝
we would also avoid it.
我们也会尽量避开
Perhaps it is the case that to other more advanced lifeforms,
也许在这个例子中 对于更高级物种来说
we are that species, and that island is earth.
我们人类就是那个物种 而那个岛屿就是地球
Another existing iteration of this
另一种类似的假说
is the hypotheses known as the zoo hypothesis,
就是我们所说的“动物园假说”
which suggests that we could be contained
也就是指我们可能
in some sort of cosmic wilderness preserve or zoo,
身处在某种宇宙荒野保护区或动物园内
protected by some galactic government ordinance,
受一些银河政府条例的保护
intentionally left alone in order to preserve our natural development.
为保护我们自然发展 而有意单独留下我们
Or perhaps similar to the containment hypotheses,
或者也可能与“控制假说”类似
we are left alone for entertainment or research purposes,
出于娱乐或研究目地把我们单独留下
in which we are observed from a distance.
然后从远处观察我们
This particular hypothesis category, along with some versions of the containment hypotheses,
这类假说和控制假说的某些版本
could also explain some amount of UFO sightings
可以解释一些不明飞行物目击事件
in which there are sort of checkins or accidental and illegal fly throughs.
此类事件中会有一些偶然经过的非法飞行物
Four, the remote isolation hypotheses.
假说4 遥远隔离说
Perhaps a consequence of the universe’s size
或许宇宙的浩渺无垠
in relation to the potentially low odds of life forming,
导致了出现生命的概率很低
the odds are also such, that any life that does form is bound to be extremely spread out.
而这种低概率又导致出现的任何生命都是极其分散的
Thus, civilizations may just never
因此 不同文明之间
and likely will never come in contact
可能永远都不会建立联系
no matter how smart or relatively extended
不管物种多么智慧
passed their home planets they become.
或在母星球上待多长时间
Or perhaps there are some other civilizations
或许可能确实存在其他文明
who have already crossed paths and co-exist
他们已经在某种银河系
in some sort of galactic colony or organization,
形成交叉共存的殖民地或组织
but we just happened, by chance,
而我们恰好是那一个
to be one that was birthed too far out in the remote woods of the cosmos.
诞生在遥远偏僻的“宇宙森林”中的物种
There might be no reason for others to go into these cosmic woods,
除了极少数情况下 其它生命可能没有理由
except for perhaps very rare circumstances,
去到这些遥远的“宇宙森林”里
like occasional hikers in remote sections of the woods
就像偶尔在偏远森林徒步旅行的人
who quickly move on when they notice a nest of another species,
发现其他物种的巢穴时 他们也会迅速离开
leaving us with no way out.
留下无路可走的我们
Extending off that is number five,
接着是第五个假说
the predator hypotheses.
假说5 捕食者假说
Taking a slightly darker turn on the wood’s analogy,
用森林做一个黑暗一点的类比
one version of a predator hypotheses
捕食者假说的其中一个版本
is known as the dark forest hypothesis,
被称为黑暗森林假说
initially thought of by science fiction writer, Cixin Liu,
最初由科幻小说作家刘慈欣提出
which suggests that perhaps the reason other species don’t go out
这个假说认为 其他物种不出去探索
exploring into the remote areas of the cosmos
宇宙偏远地区
is not because of indifference, but because they are aware of
并不是因为冷漠 而是因为他们知道
how dangerous it is,
这有多危险
how risky it is to let your existence be known,
让别人知道你的存在非常危险
haphazardly send out signals, and run about the cosmos.
随意的发出信号或冲入宇宙中也是
Perhaps there is unyielding danger
可能我们还没有意识到
lurking just around the corners that we are not yet aware of.
藏在周围角落里的潜在危险
More specifically,
更具体的来说
perhaps there is some particular entity or entity group
也许存在某些特定的实体或实体组
that was first to successfully evolve in the universe,
是宇宙中第一个成功进化的
or is just the most dangerous one that has,
或者可能是最危险的那一个
and it now controls and monitors the universe.
能去控制和监控整个宇宙
If this were the case, it would likely be in this species’ interests
如果是这样的话 就可能会有物种利益纷争
and nature to want to maintain its control,
它自然想要获得其它领地的控制权
and seeing as how it would have likely needed
以及想看看如何才能获得
to develop very aggressive and powerful abilities
侵略性的强大能力
to make it into to such a spot,
使他们成为统治者
it would likely possess unmatched aggression and power.
他们会拥有无与伦比的攻击性和力量
Thus, this species might find it
因此 这些物种可能会找到
both essential and easy to destroy any life
基本和简单的方式来摧毁任何
that it determines has developed enough to be a potential threat,
他们认为已经发展到足以构成威胁的生命
which we have just not reached yet.
只是我们还没有达到而已
This would then eliminate all new incoming intelligent life,
这将消除所有新来到的智慧生命
rendering the cosmos apparently desolate
使宇宙看起来是荒凉的
while this predator generally maintains stealthy concealment.
而这种捕食者通常藏在暗处
Alternatively, perhaps it’s the exact opposite in number six,
或许 这与第六种假说恰恰相反
what we’ll call the evolutionary revolution hypotheses.
我们称它为 进化革命假说
It is also possible that the more intelligent a species gets,
也有可能是一种生物越聪明
the more passive and less interested in colonization,
反而越被动 对殖民的兴趣就越少
were outward physical activities becomes.
外部的身体活动也越少
If a species is evolved enough technologically or otherwise,
如果一个物种在技术或其它方面已经充分发展
it is reasonable to assume a higher likeliness
那么可以合理地假设这个物种
that such a species has a developed a high degree of efficiency and effectiveness,
很可能已经发展到了一个效能极高的阶段
and thus, has an abundance of available time and resources.
因此他们有足够的时间和资源
This could then reduce, if not entirely eliminate, the majority of its competitive tendences,
不能说完全消除 但这至少会减少大部分的竞争
need or desire for violence
减少对暴力的需求和渴望
unethical and deceitful behaviors,
减少不道德和虚伪的行为
interest in broader physical ownership, and perhaps desire as a whole.
以及减少对霸主权力的兴趣和统治宇宙的欲望
This could then lead to a number of outcomes,
这可能会导致多种结果
one perhaps being something that might appear to us to be a sort of reversal of evolution,
一种可能是 这会导致一种逆向进化
in which the lifeform, as it continues forward in time and space and becomes more intelligent,
也就是生命体随时间和空间变得更加智能
it’s efforts and behaviors appear to return to that of complete passivity,
但其行为却变得完全被动
like an amoeba or paramecium or gas-like substance.
变得像变形虫或草履虫一样 或变成类气体物质
There’s no obvious reason to assume that the ultimate path of evolution
我们没有理由相信进化的最终路径
is a straight line forward in any particular direction.
是一条朝着某一方向的直线
It very well could be more of a loop.
它也很可能是一个循环
If this were true, this would then mean that all life,
如果这是正确的 就意味着所有生命
once it becomes theoretically smart and capable enough to reach other beings,
一旦变得极度聪明 足够有能力触及其他生命时
it doesn’t because it simply doesn’t care to.
他们也根本不想去建立联系
Another potential form of an evolutionary revolution
进化革命还有另一种潜在形式
that fits with our more traditional assumptions of evolution
这种形式符合更传统的进化论
would be a case in which all intelligent species
在这种情况下所有的智能物种
realize at a certain point of their advancement
都能够意识到他们自身很先进
that the outside physical universe is of lesser value and interest
而相比于他们通过技术实现的虚拟世界
than artificial states of existence that they can create through technology.
外部的宇宙实体对于他们并没有更高的价值和兴趣
This is suggested by the Transcension hypothesis, created by futurist, John Smart,
这一观点是基于未来主义者John Smart提出的超越假说
where the endgame of all intelligent life is inevitable self-isolation
即 所有智慧生物最终必然会在自我隔离在
into something like a super-computer mega-structure, like a Dyson Sphere—
一个超电脑的巨型结构中 形如戴森球
a theoretical technology structure that wraps around and is fueled by an entire star.
它是一个理论科技结构 环绕并由整个恒星提供能量
In the same way a human right now
就好像人类现在
may choose to stay at home and watch tv, play video games,
宁愿呆在家里看电视玩游戏
or use their computer or phone
或使用他们的电脑 手机
as opposed to going out into the physical world,
而不是走出门去进入真实的世界
this could be the case, times some unfathomable multiple,
可能这种情况会愈演愈烈
across entire civilizations of higher intelligent lifeforms.
最终蔓延在整个高等智慧文明中
Thus, also in this case,
因此 在这种情况下
any species that was technologically capable of reaching out into the universe
任何理论上能够进入太空 与其它生命联系的物种
would just never want to.
实际上并不会这么做
Last in this category is what we’ll call
最后这一类被我们称为
the self-extinction hypothesis.
自我灭绝假说
In this case, once intelligent beings reach a certain level of higher awareness,
指的是 一旦智慧生物到达一个特定的认知水平
they inevitably and inescapably realize that sentient existence is fundamentally negative,
他们注定会意识到“有意识的生命”本质上就是消极的
and thus, determine it unethical to continue birthing more of themselves.
因此继续进行自我繁衍是不道德的
All species in this case
在这种情况下
would then eventually, universally cease reproduction,
所有智慧物种最终会停止繁衍
or terminate by some other means, until they run themselves out
或以其他方式直到自我消耗殆尽
and never extend much passed their home planets.
永远不会离开他们的母星
Last on the list is number seven,
最后是第七个假说
what is known as the rare-earth hypothesis.
被称为地球稀有假说
Ultimately, the conclusion of this hypothesis
最终 这个假说的结论是
is that the fermi paradox isn’t really that paradoxical.
费米悖论其实并不那么矛盾
The math might simply suggest
数学推演表明
that once one accounts for all the variables
一旦考虑了所有事的所有变量
in all thing, they need to go exactly right, exactly the right order
并长时间准确的按照顺序进行推理
for a long enough stretch of time without any major break in the chain,
并且每一环都不能有大的缺口
life forming, especially intelligent, conscious life,
由此得出 生命的形成 尤其是智慧生命
is simply very, very unlikely to exist.
存在的概率极低
And so, it would then make perfect sense that it doesn’t
那么一切都说的通了
and that we appear to be alone, because we are.
因为可能我们就是孤独的
We could simply be the first-born child of the universe.
我们可能是宇宙的第一个孩子
Or perhaps we could be one of the only surviving children.
或者我们可能是唯一幸存的孩子
After all, more than 99% of all species that have ever lived on Earth have died out.
毕竟 地球上超过99%的物种灭绝了
We are currently of that 1%.
我们仅是那1%
One could apply those same odds to life in the cosmos, where almost all life dies
这样的概率同样适用于宇宙 几乎所有生命都灭绝了
out and only 1% survives, at least this far. And we might currently be the 1% of that 1%,
仅有1%幸存 而我们现在是那1%中的1%
destined to hit a layer of 0%. Life might just be extremely rare to start,
也就是几乎接近于0% 生命的出现极其罕见
and it might just get increasingly rare the longer it sticks around.
它停留的时间越长只会越稀少
Of course, any of these and other unmentioned hypotheses
当然任何一个假设和其他未提及的假设
could be combined with each other in various ways,
都可以进行多方式的相互结合
and also, of course, it could be none and something else entirely.
当然也可以不结合或结合其它理论
If you’ve ever explored this subject, you’ve almost certainly heard the Arthur C. Clarke quote,
如果你研究过这个课题 一定听过阿瑟·克拉克说的:
“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”
“有两种可能:我们在宇宙中是孤立或不是孤立的 两种可能都令我们害怕”
It’s almost a cliché at this point, but this quote really deserves its frequent usage.
这几乎是陈词滥调 但这句话确实有道理
It so powerfully and succinctly summarizes the crux of this issue, our condition in the cosmos.
简洁有力地说明了问题的关键:我们在宇宙中的处境
There may be a way out of the fermi paradox, there may be an explanation one way or the other,
也许有办法跳出费米悖论 也许还有很多种方法解释它
but there is no way out of the terror and wonder that all solutions leave us with.
但所有这些理论留给我们的恐惧和好奇是无法摆脱的
No matter what the case, whether we are alone or not,
无论是什么情况 无论我们是否孤立
to ponder such terrifying yet awe-inspiring possibilities,
去思考这些可怕而又令人敬畏的可能性
to knowingly carry the Faberge egg of existence through the chaotic, mysterious turbulence of the
有意识的带着“生命的法贝热之石”穿越混沌神秘的宇宙涡流
cosmos is perhaps, in so far as we can tell, for now, a once in a universe opportunity.
也许就目前而言 这是绝无仅有的一次机会

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视频概述

在这段视频中,我们探索七种假说,试图解决费米悖论,并解释地球生命在宇宙中奇怪而孤立的性质。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

哼灬怎么样

审核员

审核员RYAN

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkSvtN25nFU

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