今天我想 好了 今天早上
Today I wanted to — well, this morning —
我想谈一谈人力运输的未来
I want to talk about the future of human-driven transportation;
有关于我们如何通过 用更少的车搭载更多乘客的方式
about how we can cut congestion, pollution and parking
来解决塞车 污染和停车的问题
by getting more people into fewer cars;
以及如何运用 我们口袋里的科技来实现这个目标
and how we can do it with the technology that’s in our pockets.
没错 我谈的是智能手机……
And yes, I’m talking about smartphones …
不是自动驾驶车
not self-driving cars.
不过在开始（这个话题）之前 我们先把目光移回到100年前
But to get started we’ve got to go back over 100 years.
其实在 Uber 之前 就已经有一个“Uber”了
Because it turns out there was an Uber way before Uber.
如果它一直存在
And if it had survived,
那未来的交通运输方式 现在可能已经出现了
the future of transportation would probably already be here.
让我向各位介绍 jitney
So let me introduce you to the jitney.
它是在1914年由一位叫 LP德雷珀的人创造或发明的
In 1914 it was created or invented by a guy named LP Draper.
他是一位来自洛杉矶的 汽车销售员 他有一个点子
He was a car salesman from LA, and he had an idea.
他当时在我的家乡
Well, he was cruising around downtown Los Angeles,
洛杉矶市中心兜风时
my hometown,
看到电车旁
and he saw trolleys
排了很长的队伍 大家正准备排队上车
with long lines of people trying to get to where they wanted to go.
他就想 为何我不在我的车上 放个牌子招呼大家
He said, well, why don’t I just put a sign on my car
让大家只要花5分钱
that takes people wherever they want to go for a jitney —
就能去他们想去的地方呢？
that was slang for a nickel.
于是人们开始跳上车
And so people jumped on board,
而且不只洛杉矶 全国都开展了这项服务
and not just in Los Angeles but across the country.
才仅仅过了1年
And within one year,
也就是1915年
by 1915,
在西雅图每天就有5万人次乘坐jitney
there were 50,000 rides per day in Seattle,
在堪萨斯每天有4.5万
45,000 rides per day in Kansas
在洛杉矶则有15万人次
and 150,000 rides per day in Los Angeles.
给各位补充一些概念
To give you some perspective,
100年后的今天
Uber in Los Angeles
洛杉矶的 Uber 每天有
is doing 157,000 rides per day, today …
15.7万人次搭车
100 years later.
所以 当时这些电车司机
And so these are the trolley guys,
也是当时交通的垄断巨头
the existing transportation monopoly at the time.
他们对 jitney 巨大的成功 感到非常的不爽
They were clearly not happy about the jitney juggernaut.
所以他们在全国
And so they got to work
各大城市穿梭游说
and they went to cities across the country
联合起来制定针对 jitney 的各种规则 来拖慢 jitney 的发展速度
and got regulations put in place to slow down the growth of the jitney.
各式各样的法规五花八门
And there were all kinds of regulations.
营业执照——通常都很贵
There were licenses — often they were pricey.
在一些城市里
In some cities,
如果你是个 jitney 司机
if you were a jitney driver,
你会被要求一天16个小时都得在 车里才能运营 jitney
you were required to be in the jitney for 16 hours a day.
在另一些城市里
In other cities,
他们要求两个 jitney 司机使用一辆车
they required two jitney drivers for one jitney.
但有一条法规很搞笑
But there was a really interesting regulation
每一台 jitney 的后座上必须安上灯
which was they had to put a backseat light —
因为他们想要阻止
install it in every Jitney —
“后座拥吻”这一伤风败俗的“新发明”
to stop a new pernicious innovation which they called spooning.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
好的 那么后来发生了什么呢？
All right. So what happened?
一年当中 jitney 发展非常迅猛
Well, within a year this thing had taken off.
但在到了1919年 jitney 被立法完全禁止
But the jitney, by 1919, was regulated completely out of existence.
真的很可惜……
That’s unfortunate …
因为当你不能找人拼车的时候 你就必须自己去买一辆
because, well, when you can’t share a car, then you have to own one.
所以也难怪
And car ownership skyrocketed
私家车行业开始蓬勃发展 到了2007年
and it’s no wonder that by 2007,
美国平均每个男人 女人 小孩都拥有一辆车
there was a car for every man, woman and child in the United States.
而这个现象席卷了全球
And that phenomenon had gone global.
在中国 到2011年为止
In China by 2011,
当时的汽车销售数量 已经超越美国
there were more car sales happening in China than in the US.
当然 大量的私家车 导致了公众要付出高昂的代价
Now, all this private ownership of course had a public cost.
在美国 我们每年都会在
In the US, we spend 7 billion hours a year,
交通拥堵上浪费70亿个小时
wasted, sitting in traffic.
间接导致了160亿美元的损失
160 billion dollars in lost productivity,
当然 当你坐在车里
of course also sitting in traffic,
有五分之一的碳排放
and one-fifth of all of our carbon footprint
是我们在塞车时释放到空气中的
is spewed out in the air by those cars that we’re sitting in.
这也只是占我们所有问题的4%而已
Now, that’s only four percent of our problem though.
因为 如果你必须拥有一台车
Because if you have to own a car
那就表示有96％的时间 你的车是静止不动的
then that means 96 percent of the time your car is sitting idle.
而且有将近30％的土地 及我们居住的空间
And so, up to 30 percent of our land and our space
要用来存放这些大铁怪
is used storing these hunks of steel.
我们甚至已经有了 为这些车盖的摩天大厦
We even have skyscrapers built for cars.
这就是我们当今居住的世界
That’s the world we live in today.
城市已经为解决这些问题 尝试了好几十年
Now, cities have been dealing with this problem for decades.
叫做大众运输
It’s called mass transit.
但是即使是像纽约这样的城市
And even in a city like New York City,
这样一个在全世界拥有
one of the most densely populated in the world
最密集的人口和最复杂的 公共交通的城市
and one of the most sophisticated mass transit systems in the world,
每天仍有250万辆车要经过那些桥
there are still 2.5 million cars that go over those bridges every day.
为什么会这样？
Why is that?
因为大众运输还搞不清楚
Well, it’s because mass transit hasn’t yet figured out
如何把每个人载到家门口
how to get to everybody’s doorstep.
回到我住的地方 旧金山
And so back in San Francisco, where I live,
状况更糟糕
the situation’s much worse,
事实上 比全世界其它地方还要糟
in fact, much worse around the world.
Uber 在刚起步的2010年——
And so the beginning of Uber in 2010 was —
我们只是实现“一键叫车”
well, we just wanted to push a button and get a ride.
我们还没有任何远大的野心
We didn’t have any grand ambitions.
不过当非常多的人
But it just turned out
想要使用“一键叫车”时
that lots of people wanted to push a button and get a ride,
我们后来发现这些路线中 有很多是重复的
and ultimately what we started to see was a lot of duplicate rides.
我们发现有很多人
We saw a lot of people
在同一时刻叫车
pushing the same button at the same time
要去的几乎是同一个地方
going essentially to the same place.
所以我们开始设想
And so we started thinking about,
要如何把两条相近的线路合并成一条
well, how do we make those two trips and turn them into one.
因为如果我们这样做的话 那出车的成本会大大降低
Because if we did, that ride would be a lot cheaper —
最高能降一半
up to 50 percent cheaper —
这样一来
and of course for the city
城市里就会有更少的车 搭载更多的人
you’ve got a lot more people and a lot fewer cars.
那么摆在我们面前最大的问题就是：
And so the big question for us was:
这可行吗？
would it work?
能够让打车费足够便宜到
Could you have a cheaper ride
使人们愿意共乘吗？
cheap enough that people would be willing to share it?
很幸运 答案是“响当当”的是
And the answer, fortunately, is a resounding yes.
在旧金山
In San Francisco,
在我们推出 UberPOOL 之前
before uberPOOL, we had —
不管想去什么地方 每个人都想开自己的车
well, everybody would take their car wherever the heck they wanted.
图上明亮的区域就是车流量最大的地方
And the bright colors is where we have the most cars.
在我们推出 UberPOOL 之后
And once we introduced uberPOOL,
你会发现明亮的部分大大减少
well, you see there’s not as many bright colors.
这说明更多的人们乘坐了更少的车
More people getting around the city in fewer cars,
减少了路上的车流量
taking cars off the road.
看起来 uberPOOL 效果不错
It looks like uberPOOL is working.
所以八个月前我们也把它
And so we rolled it out in Los Angeles
推广到了洛杉矶
eight months ago.
从那时起 我们至今总共减少了 790万英里的总行驶里程
And since then, we’ve taken 7.9 million miles off the roads
也减少了1400吨的二氧化碳排放
and we’ve taken 1.4 thousand metric tons of CO2 out of the air.
但我最在意的地方是
But the part that I’m really —
[掌声]
(Applause)
不过我最喜欢的统计数据是
But my favorite statistic —
别忘了 我来自洛杉矶
remember, I’m from LA,
我一生中花了不少时间
I spent years of my life
坐在拥挤的车潮中思考 “我们要如何解决这个问题？”
sitting behind the wheel, going, “How do we fix this?” —
我最喜欢的部分是8个月后
my favorite part is that eight months later,
我们每周都有10万新人来拼车
we have added 100,000 new people that are carpooling every week.
在中国 所有数字都无比庞大
Now, in China everything is supersized,
我们每个月有1500万人次 使用uberPOOL
and so we’re doing 15 million uberPOOL trips per month,
每天差不多50万
that’s 500,000 per day.
我们见证了这种指数增长
And of course we’re seeing that exponential growth happen.
实际上 这和我们在洛杉矶 见到的情况差不多
In fact, we’re seeing it in LA, too.
我们的团队讨论时从来不会说
And when I talk to my team, we don’t talk about,
“嘿 我们每周已经有10万人参与拼车了 目标完成了”
“Hey, well, 100,000 people carpooling every week and we’re done.”
而是 我们该怎么样达到百万？
How do we get that to a million?
实际上在中国 可能有几百万人次的潜力
And in China, well, that could be several million.
所以 UberPOOL是解决城市内部 拼车问题的很好方案
And so uberPOOL is a very great solution for urban carpooling.
但是对于郊区是否同样适用呢？
But what about the suburbs?
这条街 是我在洛杉矶长大的街道
This is the street where I grew up in Los Angeles,
是加州典型的郊区 叫做Northridge
it’s actually a suburb called Northridge, California,
而……
and, well —
看看这些邮箱 顺着街道绵延不绝
look, those mailboxes, they kind of just go on forever.
每天早上差不多同一时刻
And every morning at about the same time,
车子从他们的车道开出来
cars roll of out their driveway,
但他们大部分车子里只有一个人
most of them, one person in the car,
然后开车去工作的地方
and they go to work, they go to their place of work.
所以我们的问题是：
So the question for us is:
我们要如何把
well, how do we turn
所有这些通勤车
all of these commuter cars —
不夸张地说 差不多好几千万台
and literally there’s tens of millions of them —
我们要如何把这些通勤车转换成共乘车？
how do we turn all these commuter cars into shared cars?
为了解决这个问题 我们最近设计了一个叫UberCOMMUTE的产品
Well, we have something for this that we recently launched called uberCOMMUTE.
当你早上起来 准备去上班 喝完一杯咖啡
You get up in the morning, get ready for work, get your coffee,
走向你的车
go to your car
只要打开 Uber APP
and you light up the Uber app,
一眨眼的功夫
and all of a sudden,
你就成为了一名Uber司机
you become an Uber driver.
我们会为你自动匹配和你有着
And we’ll match you up with one of your neighbors
同样上班路线的邻居们
on your way to work
这件事还真是不错
and it’s a really great thing.
现在只有一个障碍要克服……
There’s just one hitch …
它叫做法规
it’s called regulation.
每英里54美分 这是什么？
So 54 cents a mile, what is that?
这是美国政府定义的
Well, that is what the US government
拥有一辆车每英里的成本
has determined that the cost of owning a car is per mile.
在美国 任何人提前预约
You can pick up anybody in the United States
你就可以载他们到任何他们想去的地方
and take them wherever they want to go at a moment’s notice,
但你只能收取每英里54美分
for 54 cents a mile or less.
但如果你每英里收费 超过60美分 你就犯法了
But if you charge 60 cents a mile, you’re a criminal.
但如果每英里60美分
But what if for 60 cents a mile
我们就可以吸引超过50万人 在洛杉矶加入共乘制度呢？
we could get half a million more people carpooling in Los Angeles?
或如果每英里60美分
And what if at 60 cents a mile
我们可以吸引超过5000万人 在美国加入共乘制度呢？
we could get 50 million people carpooling in the United States?
如果我们可以的话
If we could,
这很明显是我们应该做的
it’s obviously something we should do.
所以 这带我们回到了jitney的教训
And so it goes back to the lesson of the jitney.
如果在1915年这个生意刚起步时
If by 1915 this thing was taking off,
想像一下 没有这些规定的束缚
imagine without the regulations that happened,
如果jitney可以一直发展下去 会如何呢？
if that thing could just keep going.
今日的城市会有多大的不同？
How would our cities be different today?
我们现在的停车场是否就能变成公园？
Would we have parks in the place of parking lots?
是的 我们已经错过了这次机会
Well, we lost that chance.
但是科技为我们提供了一次新的机会
But technology has given us another opportunity.
现在 我和其他人一样 对自动驾驶感到十分的兴奋
Now, I’m as excited as anybody else about self-driving cars
但我们真的必须再等 5年 10年 甚至20年
but do we have to really wait five, 10 or even 20 years
才能打造一座新城市吗？
to make our new cities a reality?
通过我们口袋里的科技
With the technology in our pockets today,
和多一点点人性化的法规
and a little smart regulation,
我们就可以把每辆车变成共乘车
we can turn every car into a shared car,
而且从今天就可以开始 拯救我们的城市
and we can reclaim our cities starting today.
谢谢各位！
Thank you.
[掌声]
(Applause)
Chris Anderson（CA）： Travis, 谢谢你
Chris Anderson: Travis, thank you.
Travis Kalanick（TK）：谢谢你
Travis Kalanick: Thank you.
CA：我觉得你的公司确实很了不起
CA: You know — I mean the company you’ve built is absolutely astounding.
刚刚你谈论了其中一个很小的部分
You only just talked about a small part of it here —
也是很重要的部分
a powerful part —
把大家的车变成 大众运输工具的这个想法
the idea of turning cars into public transport like that,
真的很酷！
it’s cool.
不过我也有一些问题
But I’ve got a couple other questions
因为我知道其他人也很关心
because I know they’re out there on people’s minds.
首先 上礼拜 如果我没记错的话
So first of all, last week I think it was,
我打开手机 试着要从 Uber 叫车
I switched on my phone and tried to book an Uber
但我发现我找不到Uber的App了
and I couldn’t find the app.
你对 Uber图标进行的重新设计 真的很坚决和彻底 勇气可嘉
You had this very radical, very bold, brave redesign.
TK: 是的
TK: Sure.
CA: 这事你怎么看？
CA: How did it go?
是不是注意到其他人那天 也找不到你们的App了呢？
Did you notice other people not finding the app that day?
你是否准备好在新设计上 重新赢取用户呢？
Are you going to win people over for this redesign?
TK: 嗯 我首先要说的是
TK: Well, first I should probably just say,
我们想要完善的
well, what we were trying to accomplish.
实际上和我们公司的历史有关
And I think if you know a little bit about our history,
重新设计对此有非常大的意义
it makes a lot more sense.
当我们一开始创立Uber的时候
Which is, when we first got started,
Uber里的车全都是黑色的
it was just black cars.
我们想让你按下Uber的按钮之后 就会有S级车来为你服务
It was literally you push a button and get an S-Class.
所以我们本来想做的
And so what we did
是一个打车品牌的奢侈品 通过模拟豪华车的车标
was almost what I would call an immature version of a luxury brand
把Uber做成奢侈品的象征
that looked like a badge on a luxury car.
但当我们成长为全球化的公司
And as we’ve gone worldwide
从S级骄车到印度的小黄包车
and gone from S-Classes to auto rickshaws in India,
这变成了一个对我们相当有意义的事
it became something that was important for us
因为这样可以让Uber变的平易近人
to be more accessible,
更加的本土化
to be more hyperlocal,
更加在乎我们居住的城市
to be about the cities we were in
这就是你看到我们公司的模式和颜色
and that’s what you see with the patterns and colors.
需要变得更图像化
And to be more iconic,
是因为U无论在印度语
because a U doesn’t mean anything in Sanskrit,
还是在汉语中都没有具体的含义
and a U doesn’t mean anything in Mandarin.
所以重新设计是有这样一层原因的
And so that was a little bit what it was about.
当你第一次推出这样的设计
Now, when you first roll out something like that,
肯定会紧张到手心冒汗
I mean, your hands are sweating,
你会
you’ve got —
有一点担心
you know, you’re a little worried.
我们看到的是很大一群人
What we saw is a lot of people —
实际上 刚开始我们看到 很多人打开了App
actually, at the beginning, we saw a lot more people opening the app
因为他们很好奇 打开时会有什么发现
because they were curious what they would find when they opened it.
而我们得到的数字比预期的稍为高一点
And our numbers were slightly up from what we expected.
CA: 好的 这确实非常酷
CA: OK, that’s cool.
我不得不说 你现在 在很多人看来挺神秘的
Now, so you, yourself, are something of an enigma, I would say.
你的支持者与投资者 这一路来一直跟随着你
Your supporters and investors, who have been with you the whole way,
他们相信只有
believe that the only chance
残忍无情的竞争者才能担负起
of sort of taking on the powerful, entrenched interests
这责任重大的机会
of taxi industry and so forth,
挑战根深蒂固的计程车行业利益等等
is to have someone who is a fierce, relentless competitor,
而你最近也证明你做到了
which you’ve certainly proved to be.
一些人感觉你把这种文化带的太远了
Some people feel you’ve almost taken that culture too far,
你也知道——在一到两年前
and you know — like a year or two ago
对于 Uber 有次巨大的争论 很多的女士感觉相当失望
there was a huge controversy where a lot of women got upset.
公司在那段时间 内部是什么感觉？
How did it feel like inside the company during that period?
你是否注意到公司出现了任何损失？
Did you notice a loss of business?
或者说你在这个过程中学到了什么？
Did you learn anything from that?
TK:我觉得
TK: Well, look, I think —
我从高中就已经是个企业家
I’ve been an entrepreneur since I’ve been in high school
你在困难时期
and you have —
一定会遇到各种不同的挑战
In various different ways an entrepreneur will see hard times
对我们来说
and for us,
一年半前的事件
it was about a year and a half ago,
也是我们的困难时期
and for us it was hard times, too.
在公司内部 我们感觉
Now, inside, we felt like —
我们当时感觉到
I guess at the end of the day
“我们是对的人在做对的事”
we felt like we were good people doing good work,
但在外人看来 就没那么明显
but on the outside that wasn’t evident.
所以 可以这么说
And so there was a lot that we had to do
我们还有很多方面要努力
to sort of —
我们是从一个很小的公司开始的
We’d gone from a very small company —
我的意思是 如果你回到2年半前
I mean if you go literally two and a half years ago,
我们公司只有400人
our company was 400 people,
现在已经有6500人
and today it’s 6,500.
所以 当你经历了整个成长的过程
And so when you go through that growth,
你就必须凝聚公司的文化价值
you have to sort of cement your cultural values
并随时谈论它们
and talk about them all of the time.
并且你需要人们能够持续地认可
And make sure that people are constantly checking
你们是“对的人在做对的事”
to say, “Are we good people doing good work?”
如果你能够保证这些
And if you check those boxes,
那么剩下的部分就是你要讲述你的故事
the next part of that is making sure you’re telling your story.
而我认为我们得到很多教训
And I think we learned a lot of lessons
但最后 我们会变得更坚强
but I think at the end of it we came out stronger.
虽然这会是一段很困难的时期
But it was certainly a difficult period.
CA: 在我看来 每次你做出改变的时候
CA: It seems to me, everywhere you turn,
你都会直面别人给你提出的难题
you’re facing people who occasionally give you a hard time.
纽约和其他地方的一些Uber司机
Some Uber drivers in New York and elsewhere
现在已经气疯了 因为你改变勒费率
are mad as hell now because you changed the fees
他们声称——他们几乎干不下去了
and they can barely — they claim — barely afford the deal anymore.
你要如何
How —
就如你说的 你创办公司的初衷
You know, you said that you started this originally —
仅仅是想简单地按下按钮打辆车而已
just the coolness of pressing a button and summoning a ride.
但公司却发展得非常快
This thing’s taken off,
基本在目前这个时间点上 你正在影响全球经济
you’re affecting the whole global economy, basically, at this point.
不管你想不想 你已经不得不这么做
You’re being forced to be, whether you want it or not,
你是用一种长远的世界观 在改变这个世界
a kind of global visionary who’s changing the world.
我的意思是——你是谁？
I mean — who are you?
你真的有想过会这样吗？
Do you want that?
你有准备好并承担这一切吗？
Are you ready to go with that and be what that takes?
TK: 好吧 你一时间 问了好几个问题 所以
TK: Well, there’s a few things packed in that question, so —
[笑声]
(Laughter)
首先是价格方面
First is on the pricing side —
我的意思是 要记住一点 对吧？
I mean, keep in mind, right?
UberX 我们刚开始这个项目的时候
UberX, when we first started,
理论上要比我们的黑色 专车产品便宜10%到15%
was literally 10 or 15 percent cheaper than our black car product.
现在
It’s now
在很多城市 Uber 还比出租车 便宜差不多一半
in many cities, half the price of a taxi.
我们所有的资料显示
And we have all the data to show
所有的驾驶员每小时的收入 比他们当出租车司机时还要多
that the divers are making more per hour than they would as taxi drivers.
当价格下降后
What happens is when the price goes down,
人们就更喜欢搭 Uber 了
people are more likely to take Uber
同一天不同的时间一直如此
at different times of the day than they otherwise would have,
他们在一些场合似乎还 比之前更喜欢使用Uber
and they’re more likely to use it in places they wouldn’t have before.
这就意味着 驾驶员无论 把乘客送到哪里
And what that means for a driver is wherever he or she drops somebody off,
他们几乎是马上又拉到一个乘客 可以继续工作了
they’re much more likely to get a pickup and get back in.
也就是说 每个小时的载客次数变多了
And so what that means is more trips per hour,
每小时的服务分钟也变多了
more minutes of the hour where they’re productive
且实际上收入也增加了
and actually, earnings come up.
我们有一些城市 已经降价5-6次
And we have cities where we’ve done literally five or six price cuts
而且随着时间越久 价格就降得越多
and have seen those price cuts go up over time.
所以 即使是在纽约
So even in New York —
我们有一篇博客文章 叫做“4个九月”
We have a blog post we call “4 Septembers” —
内容就是
compare the earnings
把每年9月份的收入
September after September after September.
进行比较
Same month every year.
我们可以看到当价格下降后
And we see the earnings going up over time
司机反而赚的越多
as the price comes down.
到时会有一个完美的价格档——你不能永远降价下去
And there’s a perfect price point — you can’t go down forever.
在有些地方 我们降价后
And in those places where we bring the price down
但看不到收入增加
but we don’t see those earnings pop,
我们就会再调整回来
we bring the prices back up.
所以这是我对第一部分的回答
So that addresses that first part.
至于第二部分 谜一般的人 还有所有的事儿
And then the enigma and all of this —
我的回答是 我是一个对
I mean, the kind of entrepreneur I am
解决难题会感到很兴奋的创业者
is one that gets really excited about solving hard problems.
我喜欢这样形容这件事 就是有点像数学教授
And the way I like to describe it is it’s kind of like a math professor.
如果一个数学教授 没有困难的问题可以解决
You know? If a math professor doesn’t have hard problems to solve,
那他真是一个可悲的教授
that’s a really sad math professor.
我们Uber也是这样 我们非常喜欢难题
And so at Uber we like the hard problems
在解决它们的过程中 我们会获得很大的满足
and we like getting excited about those and solving them.
但我们要的不是只有数学问题
But we don’t want just any math problem,
我们要的是能找到最难的问题
we want the hardest ones that we can possibly find,
并找出那个可以解决问题的关键因子
and we want the one that if you solve it,
那才是我们最想要的
there’s a little bit of a wow factor.
CA: 在几年之后
CA: In a couple years’ time —
有些人说是五年之后 其实我也不知道是什么时候
say five years’ time, I don’t know when —
你会推出炫酷的无人驾驶车服务
you roll out your incredible self-driving cars,
可能比现在打 Uber 还便宜
at probably a lower cost than you currently pay for an Uber ride.
到时候 面对你的百万 驾驶人军队时 你要怎么说？
What do you say to your army of a million drivers plus at that time?
TK：请再说一遍 大概什么时候？
TK: Explain that again — at which time?
CA： 在自动驾驶到来的时候
CA: At the time when self-driving cars are coming —
TK：好的 好的 好的 抱歉 我没听清楚
TK: Sure, sure, sure. Sorry, I missed that.
CA： 面对他们你要怎么说？
CA: What do you say to a driver?
TK：好吧 我认为首先
TK: Well, look, I think the first part is it’s going to take —
无人驾驶车还有一段
it’s likely going to take a lot longer
比广告或媒体预测的 还要长的路要走
than I think some of the hype or media might expect.
这是第一部分
That’s part one.
其次 会有一段过渡时期
Part two is it’s going to also take —
这段时间也会很长
there’s going to be a long transition.
自动驾驶一开始只能在特定的地方使用 不是在所有地方都行得通
These cars will work in certain places and not in others.
不过对我们来说 这也是个 很有意思的挑战 对吧？
For us it’s an interesting challenge, right?
因为
Because, well —
谷歌从2007年就开始研究自动驾驶
Google’s been investing in this since 2007,
特斯拉也开始投资 苹果也开始投资
Tesla’s going to be doing it, Apple’s going to be doing it,
所有的制造商都已经准备好生产了
the manufacturers are going to be doing it.
这是一个让世界永续生存的好理由
This is a world that’s going to exist, and for good reason.
每年有100万人死于车祸
A million people die a year in cars.
而且我们已经看到人类 每年要花几十亿甚至几兆个小时
And we already looked at the billions or even trillions of hours worldwide
浪费在车子里面 焦虑 沮丧
that people are spending sitting in them, driving frustrated, anxious.
想像一下
And think about the quality of life that improves
当你把时间还给人们 让他们不用再忧心忡忡
when you give people their time back
生活品质会改善多少
and it’s not so anxiety-ridden.
所以 我认为会有很多好处
So I think there’s a lot of good.
我们认为这件事是一个挑战
And so the way we think about it is that it’s a challenge,
但是一种对乐观领导力的挑战
but one for optimistic leadership,
而不是像之前的出租车业
Where instead of resisting —
或电车业
resisting technology,
要对抗、拒绝科技
maybe like the taxi industry, or the trolley industry —
我们必须拥抱它或把它成为 我们未来的一部分
we have to embrace it or be a part of the future.
但我们要如何乐观地领衔度过这一时期呢？
But how do we optimistically lead through it?
有没有与城市 成为伙伴关系的方式？
Are there ways to partner with cities?
在过渡期间 有没有教育系统或 职业训练
Are there ways to have education systems, vocational training, etc.,
等等的方式呢？
for that transition period.
这会比我认为大家期待的时间还要长
It will take a lot longer than I think we all expect,
特别是过渡时期
especially that transition period.
但这才是我们面对的世界
But it is a world that’s going to exist,
而且会是一个更美好的世界
and it is going to be a better world.
CA：Travis 你的贡献真的很了不起
CA: Travis, what you’re building is absolutely incredible
我非常荣幸能邀请你来TED 并敞开心胸与我们分享
and I’m hugely grateful to you for coming to TED and sharing so openly.
– 非常感谢- 非常感谢
– Thank you so much.- Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)