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如何避免导致公司失败的两大要因

Two reasons companies fail -- and how to avoid them | Knut Haanaes

公司失败一般有两种原因:
Here are two reasons companies fail:
他们总是做一样的东西
they only do more of the same,
或者 他们只做不一样的东西
or they only do what’s new.
对我来说 真正解决品质升级的办法
To me the real, real solution to quality growth
不外乎在两种行为中找到平衡
is figuring out the balance between two activities:
探索和开发
exploration and exploitation.
两者都甚为必要
Both are necessary,
但是太多不一定是好事
but it can be too much of a good thing.
想想Facit公司
Consider Facit.
我已经老到能记住它的程度了
I’m actually old enough to remember them.
Facit是一个极好的公司
Facit was a fantastic company.
在瑞典森林深处诞生
They were born deep in the Swedish forest,
做出了世界上最好的机械计算器
and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.
人人都用他们的计算器
Everybody used them.
但电子计算器开始普及的时候Facit做了什么呢
And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?
他们继续做一样的事情(生产机械计算器)
They continued doing exactly the same.
六个月内 他们从最佳收益
In six months, they went from maximum revenue …
落到公司消失这般田地
and they were gone.
直至泯灭
Gone.
对我来说 关于Facit有一点讽刺的是
To me, the irony about the Facit story
听说Facit工程师
is hearing about the Facit engineers,
他们从日本买来便宜 小型的计算器
who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan
来确保自己生产出的计算器准确无误
that they used to double-check their calculators.
(大笑)
(Laughter)
Facit过于注重开发了
Facit did too much exploitation.
然而 探索 有时候也会出问题
But exploration can go wild, too.
几年以前
A few years back,
我和一个欧洲的生物科技公司紧密合作
I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.
暂且称呼为OncoSearch吧
Let’s call them OncoSearch.
这家公司非常卓越
The company was brilliant.
他们有保证能诊断出、甚至有望治疗
They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,
某些血液癌症的方法
certain forms of blood cancer.
天天都在创造新的东西
Every day was about creating something new.
他们极具创新性
They were extremely innovative,
公司的口头禅是“我们不只是把事做对”
and the mantra was, “When we only get it right,”
甚至是“我们想要完美”
or even, “We want it perfect.”
然而不幸的是
The sad thing is,
在他们成为完美之前
before they became perfect —
甚至是足够好之前
even good enough —
他们已经过时了
they became obsolete.
OncoSearch过于注重 探索 了
OncoSearch did too much exploration.
15年前我作为斯坦福大学的一名访问学者时
I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,
第一次听到探索和探险两个说法
when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.
吉姆-玛驰首先提出了这种思想
The founder of the idea is Jim March.
对我来说这种思想最厉害之处是它的可行性
And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.
探索
Exploration.
探索是一个创新的过程
Exploration is about coming up with what’s new.
和搜索有关
It’s about search,
和发现有关
it’s about discovery,
和新产品有关
it’s about new products,
和创新有关
it’s about new innovations.
和改变我们的边界有关
It’s about changing our frontiers.
我们的英雄都是那些探索家
Our heroes are people who have done exploration:
居里夫人
Madame Curie,
毕加索
Picasso,
尼尔·阿姆斯特朗
Neil Armstrong,
埃德蒙德·希拉里 等等
Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.
我是挪威人
I come from Norway;
我们那所有英雄都是探险家 而且他们值得被称作探险家
all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.
我们都知道探索是存在风险的
We all know that exploration is risky.
我们不知道答案
We don’t know the answers,
不清楚是否可以找到答案
we don’t know if we’re going to find them,
而且我们知道风险很大
and we know that the risks are high.
开发则正好相反
Exploitation is the opposite.
开发是利用我们现有的知识
Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have
然后让他们变得更好
and making good, better.
开发是关于让我们的火车准点出发
Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.
这是有关于更快生产出更便宜的产品
It’s about making good products faster and cheaper.
开发没有风险
Exploitation is not risky —
至少短时内
in the short term.
但是如果我们只是开发
But if we only exploit,
长远来说风险极大
it’s very risky in the long term.
而且我认为我们都知道一些有名的流行乐团
And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups
一直唱唱着成名曲
who keep singing the same songs again and again,
直到他们过时甚至有些可怜为止
until they become obsolete or even pathetic.
这就是过度开发的风险
That’s the risk of exploitation.
所以 在长远的角度的来说 我们要探索
So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.
对短时间来说 我们开发
If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.
小孩子们天天探索新事物
Small children, they explore all day.
每天都在探索
All day it’s about exploration.
随着年龄的增长
As we grow older,
更多的知识等待我们开发因此我们不怎么探索了
we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.
对于公司来说也一样
The same goes for companies.
公司如果越来越有能力
Companies become, by nature, less innovative
自然而然会逐渐变得不那么有创新性
as they become more competent.
当然这对于CEO们来说是令他们担心的事情
And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.
而且我常常听到各种各样这样的问题
And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.
举个例子
For example,
“我该怎样带领公司做到既高效运营又不断创新?”
“How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?”
或者 “我怎么才能保证
Or, “How can I make sure
公司在落伍或者被危机击垮之前
that our company changes before we become obsolete
变革成功?“
or are hit by a crisis?”
所以 把探索和开发之中的一项做好很难
So, doing one well is difficult.
同时把两项都做好是一门艺术
Doing both well as the same time is art —
去同时探索和开发
pushing both exploration and exploitation.
我们发现
So one thing we’ve found
大概只有百分之二的公司能做到
is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore
兼顾探索和开发
and exploit at the same time, in parallel.
但是当他们这么做了的时候
But when they do,
回报将是丰厚的
the payoffs are huge.
我们有很多这样的例子
So we have lots of great examples.
例如雀巢公司创造奈斯派索咖啡机
We have Nestlé creating Nespresso,
乐高公司进入动画电影领域
we have Lego going into animated films,
丰田公司生产混合动力汽车
Toyota creating the hybrids,
联合利华注重可持续发展
Unilever pushing into sustainability —
大量得到丰厚回报的例子
there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.
但为什么平衡两者这么难呢?
Why is balancing so difficult?
我认为原因是有很多陷阱
I think it’s difficult because there are so many traps
使我们不能做我们自己
that keep us where we are.
我已经讲了两个失败的例子然而这样的例子还有很多
So I’ll talk about two, but there are many.
首先 让我们来说说“不断搜索“这个陷阱
So let’s talk about the perpetual search trap.
我们发现了一些东西
We discover something,
但是我们没有足够的耐心或者毅力
but we don’t have the patience or the persistence
去把事情做对
to get at it and make it work.
因此我们又创造了新的东西而不是继续做我们已经在做的事情
So instead of staying with it, we create something new.
但是对这件新的东西我们又做了一样的事情(喜新厌旧)
But the same goes for that,
一直下去我们陷入了恶性循环
then we’re in the vicious circle
尽管确实在创新然而还是很失望
of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.
OncoSearch就是这样
OncoSearch was a good example.
另一个很有名的例子当然是施乐公司
A famous example is, of course, Xerox.
但是我们不只在公司里看到这种现象
But we don’t only see this in companies.
公共服务里也是这样
We see this in the public sector as well.
我们都知道任何形式的改革在教育
We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,
研究 医保 甚至国防
research, health care, even defense,
都需要至少10 15 甚至20年
takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.
但是事实上我们改变的更频繁
But still, we change much more often.
我们其实没有给很多改变甚至一次机会(去看他们能不能成功)
We really don’t give them the chance.
另外一个陷阱是”既有的成功“
Another trap is the success trap.
Facit公司就是这样
Facit fell into the success trap.
他们明明已经拥有了未来
They literally held the future in their hands,
但是他们却看不到
but they couldn’t see it.
他们太擅长做自己喜欢做的事情
They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,
这使得他们不予改变
that they wouldn’t change.
我们也是这样
We are like that, too.
当你把一件事情做得很好的时候去改变和创新是很难的
When we know something well, it’s difficult to change.
比尔·盖茨曾经说过
Bill Gates has said:
成功是一个讨厌的老师
“Success is a lousy teacher.
让我们幻想我们从来不会失败
It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail.”
这就是既有的成功带来的挑战
That’s the challenge with success.
因此我认为有很多这样的例子可以教育我们
So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.
并且适用于公司
And they apply to our companies.
第一课是:在危机到来前做打算
The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.
任何持续创新的公司
And any company that’s able to innovate
其实都是在为公司的未来买保险
is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.
Netflix公司 它们可以轻松的
Netflix — they could so easily have been content
只做好内容分发的初期阶段
with earlier generations of distribution,
然而它-我也认为它会
but they always — and I think they will always —
继续一次又一次的挑战自己
keep pushing for the next battle.
我听到一些公司说
I see other companies that say,
“下一次创新大潮(周期)来的时候无论如何我会赢”
“I’ll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes.”
第二课:思考多个时间标度
Second one: think in multiple time scales.
我会分享一张表格给你
I’ll share a chart with you,
我认为这张表很好
and I think it’s a wonderful one.
任何一家公司我所注意到的
Any company we look at,
站在“年”的角度
taking a one-year perspective
来分析公司的价值
and looking at the valuation of the company,
创新大致只有百分之三十
innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.
所以当我们只考虑每“年”的时候
So when we think one year,
创新不那么重要
innovation isn’t really that important.
但向前看,在一个”十年“的周期里
Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company —
创新和更新占到了百分之七十
suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.
但是公司们无法选择
But companies can’t choose.
他们需要筹集资金而且长期保持领先
They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.
第三课
Third:
邀请有才之人加入
invite talent.
我不认为
I don’t think it’s possible for any of us
我们之中任何一个人可以独自在探索和开发之间找寻平衡
to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.
我认为这是一个团队竞技项目
I think it’s a team sport.
我认为我们需要允许挑战发生
I think we need to allow challenging.
衡量一个公司是否伟大的标准是这家公司是否愿意被挑战
I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,
衡量一个董事会是否好的标准是它是否会建设性地去挑战
and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.
我认为这个过程像父母监护儿女一样
I think that’s also what good parenting is about.
最后一课:怀疑成功
Last one: be skeptical of success.
想想古罗马的胜利游行吧
Maybe it’s useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,
当将军在胜利之后
when the generals, after a big victory,
接受庆祝
were given their celebration.
坐在马车上进罗马城
Riding into Rome on the carriage,
他们身边总会有人在他们耳边小声说道
they always had a companion whispering in their ear,
“别忘了,你只是个平常人而已”
“Remember, you’re only human.”
所以我希望你们了解我的观点
So I hope I made the point:
把探索和开发平衡之后
balancing exploration and exploitation
回报是巨大的
has a huge payoff.
但是我们也要意识到这个过程是很困难的
But it’s difficult, and we need to be conscious.
我想指出两个有用的问题
I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.
第一个问题:看看你自己的公司
First question is, looking at your own company:
在哪些方面你觉得你的公司有风险
In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk
掉入“满足于既有成功”的陷阱
of falling into success traps,
或者就让公司自然前行?
of just going on autopilot?
而且你能做什么去挑战自我?
And what can you do to challenge?
第二个问题是
Second question is:
我上次探索新事物是什么时候
When did I explore something new last,
那次探索对我有什么启发?
and what kind of effect did it have on me?
有什么我可以更进一步的事情吗?
Is that something I should do more of?
对我来说答案是肯定的
In my case, yes.
所以我让你们想想
So let me leave you with this.
不管你生来就是一个探险者
Whether you’re an explorer by nature
或者是一个对既有资源的开发者
or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,
别忘了平衡这两者是一种艺术
don’t forget: the beauty is in the balance.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

在探索和开发中寻求一个平衡,既不过度创新,也不过度保守。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

知易行难

审核员

地火

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVXmYD0UPRQ

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