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避免被标题党欺骗的小技巧 – 译学馆
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避免被标题党欺骗的小技巧

This one weird trick will help you spot clickbait - Jeff Leek & Lucy McGowan

粉碎半真半假的谎言比粉碎一个彻底的谎言难得多 ——奥斯汀·欧麦利
一种简单的维他命可以降低你患心脏病的风险
One simple vitamin can reduceyour risk of heart disease.
吃巧克力可以缓解学生的压力
Eating chocolate reducesstress in students.
新药物能延长罕见疾病患者的寿命
New drug prolongs lives ofpatients with rare disease.
像这样的健康头条每天都在发布
Health headlines like theseare published every day,
有时新闻内容还会互相对立
sometimes making opposite claimsfrom each other.
宽泛而引人注目的标题
There can be a disconnect between broad, attention-grabbing headlines
与它们所报道的通常具体而渐进的医学研究结果之间会存在脱节
and the often specific, incremental results of the medical research they cover.
那么你怎样才能避免被标题党误导呢?
So how can you avoid beingmisled by grabby headlines?
评估标题可靠性的最好方法是
The best way to assess a headline’scredibility
去看它报道的原始研究
is to look at the originalresearch it reports on.
我们对这三个标题中的每一个
We’ve come up with a hypothetical researchscenario
都提出了一个假设的研究方案
for each of these three headlines.
继续观看第一个例子的解释
Keep watching for the explanationof the first example;
然后在标题处暂停 来回答问题
then pause at the headline toanswer the question.
这些都是简化的方案
These are simplified scenarios.
一项真正的研究将会详细列举更多的因素
A real study would detail many more factors
以及它如何解释这些因素
and how it accounted for them,
但是出于练习的目的
but for the purposes of this exercise,
还必须假设你需要的全部信息已包含在内
assume all the informationyou need is included.
让我们从考虑
Let’s start by considering thecardiovascular effects
某种维生素healthium对心血管的影响开始
of a certain vitamin, Healthium.
研究发现那些服用healthium的人
The study finds that participants takingHealthium
比那些服用安慰剂的人有更高的健康胆固醇值
had a higher level of healthy cholesterol than those taking a placebo.
他们的健康胆固醇值
Their levels became similar to those
变得和那些
of people with naturally high levels
天生就有高健康胆固醇值的人接近
of this kind of cholesterol.
先前的调查显示 本身有高健康胆固醇值的人
Previous research has shown that peoplewith naturally high levels
患心脏病的概率更低
of healthy cholesterol have lowerrates of heart disease.
那么 是什么让这个标题具有误导性了呢?
So what makes this headline misleading:
“healthium降低患心脏病的风险”
“Healthium reduces risk of heart disease.”
这个标题的问题在于
The problem with this headline is
这项研究没有真正地调查
that the research didn’t actually investigate
healthium是否会降低患心脏病的风险
whether Healthium reduces heart disease.
它只测量了healthium
It only measured Healthium’s impact
对一种特定胆固醇水平的影响
on levels of a particularkind of cholesterol.
事实上 天然高健康胆固醇的人
The fact that people with naturally highlevels of that cholesterol
患心脏病的风险较低
have lower risk of heart attacks
并不意味着
doesn’t mean that the samewill be true of people
服用healthium提高健康胆固醇值的人也会如此
who elevate their cholesterollevels using Healthium.
既然你已经破解了healthium的案例
Now that you’ve cracked thecase of Healthium,
不妨来试试一个特别诱人的谜题
try your hand at a particularly alluringmystery:
吃巧克力和压力之间的关系
the relationship between eating chocolateand stress.
这个假设的研究招募了十个学生
This hypothetical studyrecruits ten students.
一半人开始每天吃巧克力
Half begin consuming adaily dose of chocolate,
而另一半不吃
while half abstain.
作为同学 他们都遵循相同的时间表
As classmates, they all followthe same schedule.
研究结束时
By the end of the study,
吃巧克力的学生
the chocolate eaters are less stressed
比那些不吃巧克力的学生压力更小
than their chocolate-free counterparts.
“吃巧克力能减少学生的压力” 这个标题有什么问题呢?
What’s wrong with this headline: “Eating chocolate reducesstress in students”
从十个人的样本里得到一个
It’s a stretch to draw a conclusion
适用于大多数学生的结论是一种夸大
about students in general from a sample of ten.
这是因为随机样本中的参与者越少
That’s because the fewer participants arein a random sample,
样本就越不能严密地
the less likely it is that the sample willclosely represent
代表目标全体
the target population as a whole.
例如 如果更广大的学生群体中
For example, if the broader population
男生女生各占一半
of students is half male and half female,
那么10个学生的样本中
the chance of drawing a sample of 10
有70%男生和30%女生的概率是12%
that’s skewed 70% male and30% is about 12%.
在有100个学生的样本中
In a sample
这个概率小于0.0025%
of 100 that would be less than 0.0025 % chance,
而在有1000个学生的样本中
and for a sample of 1000,
这个概率会小于6×10^-36
the odds are less than 6 x 10^-36.
同样 样本参与者越少
Similarly, with fewer participants,
每个人的结果对整体结果的影响越大
each individual’s outcome has a largerimpact on the overall results—
因此会影响整体趋势
and can therefore skew big-picture trends.
尽管如此 仍然有很多好理由
Still, there are a lot of good reasons
催使科学家来开展小型的研究
for scientists to run small studies.
通过从一个小样本开始
By starting with a small sample,
他们可以评估这些结果是否足够有希望
they can evaluate whether the results are promising enough
来进行一个更全面 耗资更多的研究
to run a more comprehensive,expensive study.
而且一些研究需要非常具体特殊的调查对象
And some research requires very specificparticipants
不可能招到一大批人
that may be impossible torecruit in large numbers.
关键在于研究的再现性
The key is reproducibility—
如果一篇文章从一项小型研究中得出结论
if an article draws a conclusionfrom one small study,
这个结论可能是值得怀疑的
that conclusion may be suspect—
但如果它是基于
but if it’s based
许多已经发现类似结果的研究
on many studies that have found similar results,
那么它较为可信
it’s more credible.
现在我们还剩下一个难题
We’ve still got one more puzzle.
在这个方案里 研究测试了一种
In this scenario, a study tests a new drug
治疗罕见的致命疾病的新药物
for a rare, fatal disease.
在一个有2000个病人的样本中
In a sample of 2,000 patients,
那些根据诊断服用这个药物的病人
the ones who start taking the drug upondiagnosis
比那些服用安慰剂的病人活得更久
live longer than those whotake the placebo.
这一次 问题稍微有些不同了
This time, the questionis slightly different.
在决定标题
What’s one more thing you’d like to know
“新药物延长罕见疾病患者的寿命”是否正确之前
before deciding if the headline,
你还想知道什么其它事情吗?
“New drug prolongs lives of patientswith rare disease”, is justified?
在做决定前
Before making this call,
你一定想知道
you’d want to know how much
药物究竟能延长病人多长时间的寿命
the drug prolonged the patients’lives.
有时候 一项研究会得出
Sometimes, a study can have results that,
尽管科学有效 但不会对现实世界的结果有太大影响的结果
while scientifically valid, don’t havemuch bearing on real world outcomes.
例如 一项针对胰腺癌药物的真实临床试验发现
For example, one real-life clinical trialof a pancreatic cancer drug
患者的预期寿命增加了十天
found an increase in life expectancy—of ten days.
下次你看到一个令人惊讶的医学头条时
The next time you see a surprising medicalheadline,
看看它所报道的科学研究
take a look at the scienceit’s reporting on.
即使没有免费获得的全文
Even when full papers aren’tavailable without a fee,
你也经常可以在免费获得的摘要中
you can often find summaries ofexperimental design
找到实验设计的概述和结果
and results in freely available abstracts,
你甚至可以在新闻报道的正文中找到它们
or even within the textof a news article.
科学研究被报道在新闻中确实令人激动
It’s exciting to see scientific researchcovered in the news,
不过了解这些研究的结果也很重要
and important to understandthe studies’ findings.

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视频概述

你是否经常会被标题党所困惑?你是否被每天的新闻标题狂轰乱炸?看完这个视频你会拥有不一样的有效解决方法。

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IzfzoZsa-Q

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