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中彩票后,你的生活会变成什么样?

This is your life if you won the lottery

这是世界上最昂贵的宾馆
This is the world’s most expensive hotel
八万一千美元一晚
for 81,000 dollars a night.
你就可以住在日内瓦的总统套房
You get to stay at the president hotel suite in Geneva.
另外 这是世界上最昂贵的餐馆
On the other hand, here’s the world’s most expensive restaurant.
高尚餐馆 这个餐馆一次只能坐十二人
Sublimation, the restaurant only seats 12 people at a time,
他们的食谱利用分子美食学
and utilizes molecular gastronomy in their cooking.
价格是两千美元一餐
The price, 2000 dollars a meal.
若你中了彩票 可能会做上述的事情
Perhaps these are all things you do if you won the lottery,
但是 其实中彩票并没你想象得那么有趣
but in reality, winning the lottery isn’t as funny as you think.
现在我可以用多种研究使你信服
Now I could try to convince you of this with multiple studies.
一项经典研究发现中彩票一年后
A classic study found that a year after winning,
中彩者不如正常人快乐
lottery winners weren’t any happier than normal people.
另一项调查发现 对于一半中彩票的人
Another survey found that about half of lottery winners
中彩对幸福没有影响
though winning had no effect on the happiness.
但是 有些事情不对劲
But something doesn’t feel right.
我是说瞬间变成百万富翁
I mean it’s becoming an instant millionaire
真的不会影响我们的幸福
really gonna have no impact on our happiness.
至少不必去担心钱的问题
At the very least, not having to worry about money
一定有某些持久影响 对吧
must have some lasting effect, right?
嗯 这强调的是一个重要的认知偏见
Well, this highlights an important cognitive bias,
使我们不能成功预测未来幸福的偏见
one which makes us terrible at predicting our future happiness.
这称为聚焦错觉
It’s called the focusing illusion.
聚焦错觉是指人们
The focusing illusion is when people
太过看重一件事情的某一方面
place too much importance on one aspect of an event.
这是如何运作的呢?
How does it work?
嗯 当我叫你按它的定义关注一个物体时
Well, when I ask you to focus on a subject by its very definition,
你就只是看到那个物体狭隘的一部分
you’re now only looking at a narrow portion of that subject.
因此你不会考虑到其他因素
Therefore, you’re failing to consider other factors.
这导致你高估那一方面的作用
This causes you to overestimste the impact of that one aspect,
那么我们回到中彩票的话题
so let’s go back to winning the lottery.
你想象自己中了彩票 你只是在想
When you imagine youself winning, you are only thinking about
你会因拥有所有额外的钱更开心
how happier you’ll be with all that extra money,
你没考虑到的是
what you’re not thinking about
影响幸福的其它因素
is all the other factors that influence happiness.
想想很多中彩票者的故事
Consider the many stories of lottery winners
他们最终破产 自杀或嗑药
who end up bankrupt, commiting suicide, or addicted to drugs.
例如1996年中了两千万美元彩票的杰弗里·丹皮尔
For example, Jeffery Dampler won 20 million dollars in 1996.
后来他被绑架 被自己的妹夫谋杀
He was later kidnapped and murderd by his own sister-in-law.
1997年中了三千一百万美元的比利·哈瑞尔
Billie Harrell won 31 million dollars in 1997.
不幸的是他的家人和朋友不断向他要钱
Unfortunately, 2 years later, he commited suicide
两年后他自杀了
after unrelenting requests of money from family and friends.
当你有那么多钱的时候 即便小事也会带来麻烦
Even small things bring trouble when you have that much money.
一位中彩者给这个社区捐赠了一万美元
One lottery winner offered this community 10,000 dollars
帮助改善他们的残疾人设施
to help improve their handicap facilities.
荒唐的是 当地人开始抱怨钱还不够多
Funnily enough, the locals started complaining that it wasn’t enough,
说他在夜吧花的钱更多
saying that he was spending more money at the strip clubs.
当我们想象中彩票的时候
These are just not the things we think about
我们都不会想到这些
when we imagine winning the lottery.
这也不只适用于钱
Now this doesn’t just apply to money.
例如人们也曾估量
For example, people also ever estimate
浪漫的爱情会给他们带来多少幸福
how much happiness romantic relationships will bring them.
如果我先问
If I firstly ask,
上个月你约了多少次会
how many dates did you have last month?
再衡量一下你的幸福
And then measure your happiness,
它们的相关性有0.66 为强相关
there’s a strong correlation of 0.66.
这意味着你约会越多次
This means that the more dates you went on,
你会反馈自己越开心
the happier you reported yourself being.
现在这个关系似乎相当坚固
Now this correlation seems pretty robust,
但是它可以很容易改变
but it can easily be changed.
如果我先衡量你的幸福
If I firstly measure your happiness,
然后再问你的约会生活
and then ask about your dating life as an afterthought.
相关性降到0.12
The correlation drops to 0.12.
这是因为这里
This is because here
当参与者评估幸福的时候
the participants were no longer focusing on
他们不会关注到约会与幸福的关系
relationships as they assess the happiness.
因此很正常地说 约会对决定我们的
Hence, normally, dating only plays a small part
幸福只起到一点点作用
in determining our happiness.
只有在你关注它时 它才显得很重要
It’s only when you focus on it that it seems big.
现在并不是说情感关系不重要
Now that’s not to say that relationships aren’t important.
它们重要 但是只是没有我们想得那么重要
They are, but just not as much as we think.
另一个例子
Another example,
教育对收入不均的影响也很夸张
the effect of education on income inequality is also exaggerated.
当涉及到教育时
When asked about education,
你认为这是减少收入不均的关键 是吧
you think it’d be the key to reducing income inequality, right?
然而研究却很少提到这一点
However, the research paints a less certain picture.
一些研究显示有轻微影响
Some show a moderate effect,
一些则表明教育起不到任何作用
some show that education doesn’t help at all,
而且一些甚至表明教育会恶化收入不均
and some even show that education can worsen income equality.
为什么呢 嗯 我们没考虑到
Why? well, we don’t consider that
教育真的只会帮助低阶级的人
education is only really going to help the lower class,
而这也只是一点点而已
and it’s only by a bit.
另一方面 极其富裕的人
On the other hand, the absurdly wealthy people
也依然会极其富裕
are still going to be absurdly wealthy,
因此这依然有巨大的不均
and so there’s still that huge inequality.
教育依然重要
Now education still matters,
只是没有我们想得那么重要
it just doesn’t matter as much as we think,
这点也适用于我们生活中的大部分事情
and this applies for most things in our life.
事情只是没有我们想象得那么重要
Things matter but just not as much as we think
当我们关注的时候
when we’re focusing on.
当我们想象一件大事时
When we imagine a big event
是否中了彩票或找到一个新女朋友
whether it’s winning the lottery or finding a new girlfriend,
我们只是关注在那件大事
we only focus on that big event.
我们忘记的是时间在继续
What we forget is that time goes on,
其他事情会发生 其他因素会起作用
other things will happen and other factors will come into play.
所以下次你分析事情时
So next time you’re analyzing something,
要极其注意聚焦错觉
be extremely careful of the focusing illusion.
而要试着考虑其他可能起作用的因素
Instead, try to think of what other factors might be at work.

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译制信息
视频概述

聚焦幻觉会使我们聚焦于某一方面而忽略其他因素。幸福不只有金钱或爱情。

听录译者

简单快乐

翻译译者

Felicity

审核员

审核员YZ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlMcnYCX_kY

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