本视频与第二思维共同制作
This video is in collaboration withSecond Thought.
请确保看完本视频后去看看他的视频
Make sure to check out his video after this.
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Don’t forget to subscribe,
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and click the bell button so you can be part of our notification squad.
之前在此频道里 我们只谈论过当前或过去的事件
So far on this channel, we ’ ve only ever talked about current or past events.
现在不是了 因为这期视频是关于未来的
Well not anymore, because this video is aboutthe future.
我们将报道2050年底前亚洲将发生的重大事件
We’ll be covering the major events that will happen in Asia leading up to the year 2050.
当然 预测这些事件是极其困难的
Of course, predicting such events is extremely difficult
但我们可以根据现有信息做出最佳评估
but we can always give our best estimates based the information we currently have.
在开始前 如果你不确定哪些是亚洲国家（根据国际社会的划分）
Just before we start, if you’re unsure of which countries are considered Asian (according to the international community)
请观看我们的亚洲边境系列视频
feel free to check out our video series on Asian borders.
我们将从2018年初开始
We will start from early 2018.
韩国的平昌冬奥会刚刚结束
The PyeongChang Winter Olympics in South Korea has just ended
一个值得关注的事件是
a noteworthy event as we saw South Korea
韩朝两国运动员在”统一”旗帜下进场
and North Korea march together under a united flag.
不久后
Now later on in the year,
印度尼西亚将举办2018年亚运会
Indonesia will host the 2018 Asian Games
而JAXA 日本航天局将与欧洲航天局
and JAXA, Japan’s Space Agency, jointly with the European Space Agency,
联合发射比皮科伦波水星探测器
will launch BepiColombo, a mission to the planet Mercury
意在对水星进行迄今为止最全面的现场研究
intended to be the most comprehensive on-location study of the planet ever performed.
下一年 也就是2019年
The next year in 2019,
日本天皇明仁将让位于
Japanese Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne
长子皇太子德仁
in favor of his eldest son Crown Prince Naruhito.
过去200年里 日本从未有过退位这种事
Abdication has not occured in Japan in over 200 years.
约旦 一个极度依赖外国能源的国家
Jordan, a country with a high dependency on foreign energy sources
计划兴修该国第一个核电站以应对这一问题
will hope to resolve this very issue by opening its first nuclear power plant.
但由于该沙漠国家处于地震活跃区
But with the desert nation lying in a seismically active region
人们担心
there have been fears
类似于日本福岛的核灾难会爆发
of a possible meltdown similar to the Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster.
2020年 沙特阿拉伯将完成吉达大厦的建造
In 2020, Saudi Arabia will have completed construction
这前所未有的1千米的高度
on the Jeddah Tower at an unprecedented height of 1 km
将使该大厦成为世界上最高的建筑
which would make it the tallest building in the world.
相比之下 目前最高的建筑是
In comparison, the current tallest building is the Burj Khalifa
迪拜的哈利法塔 高度为828米
in Dubai at a height of 828 meters.
一座称为Horns桥的跨洲大桥
A transcontinental bridge known
也将于这段时期完工
as the Bridge of Horns is also scheduled for completion around this time
该桥将连接中东与非洲
which would connect the Middle East to Africa,
横跨红海 从也门连接到吉布提
crossing the Red Sea, from Yemen to Djibouti.
不过 考虑到也门无休止的内战
But, given the ongoing Yemeni civil war,
该项目似乎越来越不可能完成了
completion is looking more and more unlikely.
或许一个更为现实的红海替代方案是
Perhaps a more realistic Red Sea alternative is
连接沙特阿拉伯到埃及的桥梁
the proposed bridge connecting Saudi Arabia to Egypt
将提供第一条直接道路
which would provide the first direct road link
连接西亚阿拉伯国家和北非国家
between the Arab states of West Asia and North Africa.
这时 第一批全息电视显示器
Now, the first truly holographic TV displays
可能会在2020年成为主流
may go mainstream in 2020
先出现于日本和韩国
appearing first in Japan and South Korea
然后在其他地方盛行开来
before making its way to the rest of the world
事实上 截至2016年
and actually, as of 2016,
三星已经申请了全息电视显示器专利
Samsung had already filed a patent for it!
不管主流与否
Mainstream or not, it does seem likely
至少在同一年里
that at the very least, holographic displays
全息显示器会成为
will be a big part
东京夏奥会的一大组成部分
of the Tokyo Summer Olympics to be held in this same year.
在此之前 东京举办过1964年夏奥会
Having previously hosted the 1964 Summer Olympics
它将成为第一个举办过两次奥运会的亚洲国家
Tokyo will become the first Asian city to host the Olympics, twice.
接下来是2021年
The following year in 2021,
阿联酋的希望号探测器将到达火星
the UAE ’ s Hope probe will reach Mars.
但很显然 这只是个开始
But that ’ s apparently only the start,
阿联酋还宣布了计划
because the UAE has also announced plans to set up
在2117年 在火星建造第一座城市
the first city on Mars by 2117. Now,
至于将人类送入太空
as far as launching humans
印度将完成这一壮举
into space, India will accomplish this feat
成为继俄罗斯 美国和中国之后
becoming only the fourth nation to do so,
送人类进太空的第四个国家
after Russia, US and China.
2022年将看到卡塔尔主办的世界杯
2022 will see Qatar host the FIFA world cup,
这是中东国家第一次举办世界杯
the first for a Middle Eastern country.
北京将举办冬奥会
Beijing will host The Winter Olympics making it
这将是亚洲第三次连续举办奥运会
the third consecutive Olympic Games held in Asia.
到那时 中国也将建成他们的第一个空间站
By this time, China will have also completed their first space station,
计划寿命为10年
with a design lifetime of ten years.
2023年 土耳其将作为独立共和国
In 2023, Turkey will celebrate
庆祝它的100周年纪念日
its 100th anniversary as an independent republic
到2024年 印度将超过中国
and by 2024 India will surpass
成为全世界人口最多的国家
China to become the most populous nation on Earth
人口数超过14亿
with over 1.4 billion people.
来到2026年 不断升高的海平面将会肆虐
Come 2026, rising sea levels will wreak havoc
马尔代夫这一岛国
on the island country of the Maldives
一个陆地面积和人口都最小的亚洲国家
the smallest Asian country by land area and population
也是一个拥有全球最低海拔
also the lowest lying country on the planet
仅高于海平面1.5米的国家
at just 1.5 meters above sea level.
是的 从这个观点来看
Yes by this point,
马尔代夫很有可能沉入大海
the Maldives would be well on its way to submersion.
一个大型难民疏散计划也将会随之起步
A mass evacuation plan would subsequently be underway
许多市民会逃往斯里兰卡 印度和澳大利亚
with many citizens making their way to Sri Lanka, India and Australia.
2027年将会见证中国抵达前所未有的城市化
2027 will see much of China reach an unparalleled level of urbanization.
随着她飞涨的经济
With its growing economy,
和上百个超百万居住人口的城市
and the hundreds of cities with over a million inhabitants,
世界上一众
many of the world ’ s
最高的建筑物将会在中国露面
tallest buildings will now be found in China
这些建筑至少是迪拜吉达塔的规模
we’re talking about Jeddah Tower-sized buildings at the very least.
到2028年 如果一切都按中国的计划发展（我们进一步探讨中国的壮志雄心）
In 2028, if all goes according to plan, China(now taking their ambitions a step further),
全球最大的粒子加速器将在北京诞生
will have built the world’s largest particleaccelerator in Beijing
大概是瑞士大型强子对撞机的周长的两倍
about twice the circumference of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Switzerland.
上海可能在2030年取代华尔街
Shanghai may also eclipse Wall Street in 2030,
作为主导全球的经济中心
as the World ’ s leading financial centre,
但届时 中国的人口增速将开始缓慢下降
but around this time China ’ s population will start seeing a slow decline.
这是相对印度而言
This contrasted with India ’ s
印度人口届时将达到15亿
population which will see it hit 1.5 billion
成为率先达到这一里程碑的国家
making it the first political entity in history to reach that milestone.
2032年 东南亚各国将实现交通互联
2032 may see most of Southeast Asia unifiedby transport links
包括像连接着
including the Sunda Strait Bridge connecting
爪哇岛和苏门答腊岛的巽他海峡大桥
the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra
和沟通苏门答腊与西马来西亚的马六甲海峡大桥
and the Malacca Strait Bridge connecting Sumatra with Western Malaysia
意味着印尼将被亚洲大陆连接上
meaning Indonesia will now be connected to the Asian mainland.
这将极大地拓宽印尼和许多其他东南亚国家的经济
This would greatly expand the economies of Indonesia and many other Southeast Asian countries.
不幸的是 尽管如此 曼谷 泰国的首都
Unfortunately though, Bangkok, the capital of Thailand,
一个拥有超过一千两百万人口的国家
with a population of over 12 million
将会承受上升的海平面和与日俱增的季风雨带来的后果
will face dire consequences due to rising sea levels and increased monsoon rains.
鉴于此 这座已经在沼泽和粘土上建造的城市
Add to the fact the city having been built
已经真的下沉了几十年
on swampland and clay has actually been sinking for the last decades.
到2034年 婆罗洲的雨林
By 2034, Borneo ’ s rainforests –
历史最为悠久 拥有广泛的生物多样性
one of the oldest in the world, along with its stunning range of biodiversity
也将遭受灭顶之灾
will be wiped out,
至少就现在的森林破坏速率来看
at least at the current rate of deforestation
实在是史无前例
which is unparalleled in human history.
许多极其濒危的物种
Many critically endangered species,
将会在那时面临灭顶之灾
will be close to extinction by this time including
包括最聪明的大猩猩和猩猩
one of the most intelligent of the great apes,the orangutan.
在2035年 俄罗斯将会成为全球食物大国
In the year 2035, Russia will become a globalfood superpower.
气候变化导致
With climate change resulting in lower crop yields
全球各地作物产量下降
in many parts of the world
同时全球人口总数逼近九十亿
and with the world ’ s population nearing 9 billion,
对作物产量的需求将会达到空前的高度
demand for crop production will be at an all time high.
随着冰川消融和极地冻土的减退
With the melting permafrost and retreatingpolar icecap
广袤的在现今北亚的土地
vast tracts of land will have opened up
被开垦出来
by this time in North Asia
使一度偏僻 贫瘠
turning the once remote, harsh,
荒芜的西伯利亚变为广袤富饶的乐土
barren landscape of Siberia into endless stretches of arable land
那会是一片适合耕耘的天堂
that is land suitable for farming and for growing crops.
日本也将与大陆相连
Also Japan may be connected to the mainland
新隧道将完成这一开天辟地的壮举
for the very first time with the completion of a new tunnel
从日本北部的北海道岛驶往
Running from the Northern Japanese Island
俄罗斯的库页岛
of Hokkaido to the Russian island of Sakhalin
仅需一个小小的连接库页岛和大陆的隧道
with a smaller tunnel connecting Sakhalin to the mainland
伴随着长期存在的圣凯隧道
Along with the long-existing Seikan Tunnel,
日本四大主要岛屿
all four of the main Japanese islands
将会与俄罗斯相连
would now be connected to Russia.
2036年将见证中国首位登月宇航员
2036 will see China ’ s first astronauts on the moon,
中国将成为第一个如此做的亚洲国家
the first Asian country to do so,
并且是紧随美国于1969年成功后的第一个
and only the second ever after the US in 1969.
是的那将是一个时隔67年的盛举
Yes that’s a whopping 67 years apart
美国的阿波罗工程科技方面极度异常
the US’ Apollo program quite the technological anomaly here.
在2038年前，死刑
By 2038, capital punishment
在全球范围内将极大地减少使用
across the globe will have greatly declined in use
尤其是在亚洲和中东地区尽管有值得注意的例外情况
particularly in Asia and The Middle East, though with a few notable exceptions.
当我们来到2040年
As we arrive at 2040,
印度的经济将会追平中美两国
India ’ s economy will now be rivaling the US and China ’ s.
又一个联系日本
A second tunnel connecting Japan to
和大陆的跨海隧道也将完成
mainland Asia will possibly be completed
但这一次是连接日本南部的九州岛和韩国
but this time linking the southern Japanese island of Kyushu to South Korea.
大概在2041年 也是在九州岛上
In around 2041, also on the island of Kyushu,
日本将会经历一次巨大的火山喷发
Japan will experience a major volcanic eruption,
是自1914年以来最大的一次
its largest since 1914.
尽管如此伤亡也会降至最低
Casualties will be at minimum however,
这多亏了科技进步和极大的预防措施
thanks to technological advancements and extensive precautionary measures.
2045年 同志歧视将显著降低 尤其是中东地区
2045 will see a substantial decline in homoesexual discrimination particularly in the Middle East.
原产于亚洲大陆的印度象
The Indian Elephant, native to mainland Asia,
将会处于灭绝的边缘
will be on the brink of extinction.
印尼将会庆祝其百周年独立庆典
Indonesia will celebrate its 100th anniversaryof independence.
这也将是
And it will also be the 100th anniversary
广岛和长崎原子弹爆炸的一百周年
of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
这是战争史上
the only time nuclear weapons were used
唯一一次用到核武器
in the history of warfare…
如果这27年间没有剧烈冲突的话
assuming nothing drastic happens in this 27 years span.
尽管
Regardless though
日本的
Japan’s
人口将在2046年前跌下一亿
population will fall below a 100 million by 2046
因为其人口增长率持续
but as part of its ongoing,
缓慢下降 以及低出生率不可逆转
slow decline and fundamentally irreversible low birth rate.
到现在为止 整个日本社会
By now, entire Japanese communities,
主要是农村地区 将会完全消失
mainly in the rural areas, will have disappeared in its entirety.
2047年 巴基斯坦和印度迎来他们独立的百年大庆
In 2047, Pakistan and India will celebrate the 100th anniversary of their independence.
香港一国两制的年限到期
The ‘One country, two systems’ agreementfor Hong Kong will expire
这将结束
which would be the end
大陆对“现有制度50年不变”的承诺
of Beijing ’ s 50-year promise to maintain the city ’ s existing way of life
该承诺自1997年英国归还香港起生效
after the British handover in 1997.
2048年是以色列建国的一百周年
Israel will celebrate the 100th anniversaryof their independence in 2048.
同时也是朝鲜建国的一百周年
And North Korea will celebrate the 100th anniversaryof their founding
尽管有很多人怀疑
although whether they ’ ll exist in their current form
朝鲜今年能否保住其现行制度
by this year is questionable to some.
2049年 澳门的一国两制(现称)到期
In 2049, the ‘One country, two systems’agreement (this time) for Macau will expire the Dead sea,
位于以色列和约旦之间的死海 也将消失
located between Israel and Jordan will have almost vanished
福岛核泄漏将彻底清除
the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster will be cleared up,
耗时35年
having taken approximately 35 years
斥资上百亿美元
and costing tens of billions of dollars.
最后 我们到了2050年
And finally, we arrive at 2050.
全球人口近100亿
The global population is getting close to 10 billion,
亚洲占了很大一部分
with Asia by far making up the majority.
最终 印度的人口数将开始下降
India’s population will finally start declining.
东南亚海平面上升迫使居民内迁 我们将面临世上最大的难民危机
We ’ d be in the midst of the biggest refugee crisis in history in Southeast Asia with rising sea levels forcing people inland.
珠峰地区的冰川将减少一半
The Everest region will have its glacier volumedeclined by half.
机器人将随处可见
Robots will be commonplace,
特别是日韩这种人口负增长的国家
especially in Japan and Korea where issues relating to population decline
将借助机器人平衡人口问题
will be balanced out by a growing robot population.
亚洲将通过环球高速公路通往世界各地
And Asia will be connected to almost every part of the world by a Transglobal Highway,
该公路可能包括连接亚洲与北美的白令海峡大桥
which will likely include this crossing – the Bering Strait Bridge connecting Asia to North America
这意味着到了2050年 你可以从东京 雅加达 迪拜或者北京开车前往纽约或者加利福尼亚
which means by 2050 you may be able to drive from Tokyo, Jakarta, Dubai or Beijing to New York or California.
如果你想了解更多环球高速同美洲大陆的关联
If you want to learn more about the Transglobal Highway as it relates to America
以及美洲未来将发生的大事件
as well future events relating to that part of the world
点击此处查看第二思维的视频
you can check out Second Thought’s video by clicking here!
希望你们希望这个话题
I hope you enjoyed this topic,
请在下方多多评论 想看更多亚洲话题的视频
please leave a comment below, and for more Asiany videos,
别忘了订阅并打开闹铃标志以获取即时通知
don ’ t forget to subscribe and click that little bell button to be part of our notification squad.
下个视频是 亚洲边界3
Next video will be Asian Border part 3,
下个视频见 感谢收看 小生告辞
I’ll see you there, thanks for watching and I’m out.