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可能气象学家并非一无是处

There's a Good Chance Your Meteorologist Doesn't Suck, Here's Why

我们总是责备气象学家
We blame meteorologists for a lot.
他们毁了野营 高尔夫之旅 沙滩度假
They ruin camping trips, golf trips, days at the beach.
为什么他们总是预报错误?!
Why are they always wrong?!
在这里我想说些有争议的事情
I’m going to say something controversial here.
天气预报并没有做得很糟糕
Weather forecasting isn’t bad.
事实上它真的很精确
It’s actually really accurate.
耐心些听我讲
Bear with me.
为了预报天气 他们需要测湿度 风速 降水量
To get a prediction on the weather, someone has to measure humidity, wind speed, rain,
光强 云层厚度 霜点 还有全球的大量的其他的数据
sun, clouds, dew point, and a hundred other things all over the world.
考虑大量所需数据就仅仅预报周二
It’s crazy to think about the amount of data we need just to say if it’s going to
是否下雨是很疯狂的
rain on Thursday.
引述一名著名的天体物理学家的话
To paraphrase a famous astrophysicist —
“天气没有义务让你我明白其中奥秘”
“the weather is under no obligation to make sense to you.”
然而 我们仍在努力
And yet, we keep trying.
在二十世纪的很长一段时间
For most of the 20th century,
因为我们没有这两件东西
weather forecasting was mediocre at best,
卫星和超级计算机 天气预报工作不甚完善
because we didn’t have two things, satellites and supercomputers.
但自从我们有了这两样 确确实实方便了不少
Once we got those, we really knocked it out of the sunny ballpark.
1972年时 我们就能在上下浮动
In 1972, we could predict temperatures
6度的范围内预报气温(3℃)
in a range of plus or minus 6 degrees (~3℃),
比如说 我们原来会说”明天气温将会是六十几度(15-20℃)”
like it’s going to be in the 60s (15-20℃) tomorrow.
但现在可以精确到”2到3度(1℃)”
Now it’s 2 to 3 degrees (~1℃).
在天气预报中到底是65度以上还是
There’s a big difference between the high 60s and low 60s
65度以下是有很大差别的
when it comes to a forecast.
而且 这时我们能得知大约有82%的降雨概率
And, we get rain right about 82-percent of the time.
考虑到100年前我们甚至不知道前方是有冷气团
That’s fantastic, considering we didn’t even know
还是暖气团 这些实在是太不可思议了
what a cold or warm front was 100 years ago.
就像我提到的 卫星和巨型计算机
Like I said though, satellites and supercomputers.
卫星使天气预报变得令人吃惊
Satellites made weather forecasting amazing.
第一个在美国上空拍摄云团的卫星是1960年4月的TIROS-1
The first sat to take pictures of clouds over the US was TIROS-1 in April of 1960.
第一周它发现了一场巨型台风
In the first week it spotted a typhoon which was huge.
热带风暴 飓风 台风 在卫星出现之前这些都是很难探测到的
Tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons were very difficult to detect before satellites.
在过去的57年中已经发射了大量的气象卫星
We’ve launched dozens of weather sats in the last 57 years,
最新的卫星使最早的看起来像是来自石器时代
with the newest making the originals look like the Stone Age.
现在我们可以看到云图 正在形成的热带风暴眼
Now we can see cloud patterns, spot tropical storms as they form,
气温地图 甚至能看到云层 水蒸汽
see heat maps, and even see differences between
烟雾 结冰和火山灰之间的差别
“clouds, water vapor, smoke, ice and volcanic ash.”
这太棒了
It’s insane.
但是随着我们得到的数据越来越多
But as we got more data,
人类的小脑袋瓜开始负荷不了了
it started to just be too much for our puny human brains to fathom.
在上世纪之交时
Around the turn of the last century,
人类首次尝试数字化天气监测
numerical weather monitoring was first attempted.
它将大气物理学应用于天气
It applied physics of the atmosphere to weather.
气象学家将世界分成一些虚拟网格区域
Meteorologists divided the world into a grid of small imaginary boxes,
然后在每个区域计算天气
and calculated the weather in each box
以及它如何影响周围区域
and how it would affect the boxes around it.
结果发现 没有电脑的话几乎不可能做到这些
And it turns out, this is kind of impossible without a computer!
在19世纪20年代 一位数学家
It took a 1920s mathematician three months
要花三个月的时间才能预测出24小时的天气
to predict 24 hours of weather longly.
另一方面 巨型计算机
Supercomputers, on the other hand,
每秒可以对这些网格进行上百万次计算
can run many millions of these grid calculations every second.
每一次电脑都用真实的天气数据建立将会发生的天气模拟
Each time they use real weather data and create a simulation of what could happen.
人类无法做到这样……可以说是差得远了
Humans could not do this… not even close.
每日 NOAA巨型计算机计算的数据超过了
Daily, NOAA’s supercomputer pumps through data equal to more than twice
美国国立图书馆全部印刷收藏品数量的两倍
the entire printed collection of the Library of Congress.
时至今日 天气模型(或模拟)仍不完美
Even still, weather models (or simulations) aren’t perfect.
全世界有许多不同的组织都在使用天气模型
There are lots of them used by different organizations all over the world,
他们一直在根据新的研究对它们进行调整
and they’re always tweaking them based on new research.
但是 超级计算机的作用也就到这里了
And yet, the supercomputer can only get so far.
人类必须成为天气预测方程式的一部分
Humans have to be part of this weather prediction equation.
国家气象局表示人类的降水预报正确率提高了25%
The National Weather Service says humans improve rain forecasting by 25-percent,
因为要弄清楚的是 电脑只知道我们告诉它们的东西
because let’s be clear, computers only know what we tell them.
它们不能推断或猜测 它们只会计算
They can’t infer or guess; they just calculate.
在卫星和超级计算机诞生之前我们
And it’s not like before sats and supercomputers
对天气预报并不像琼恩·雪诺一样一无所知
we knew nothing like Jon Snow.
太空旅行之前 我们使用(现在依然使用)雷达 气球
Before space travel, we used (and still use) radar, balloons,
横跨各国和海洋的天气预报站
weather stations spread across the country and the ocean.
在电子业发展之前 人们能够观天象甚至查看历法
And before electronics, people could look at the sky or even read almanacs!
真的!
Seriously!
“早霞不出门”与大气层厚度有关
‘Red sky in the morning, sailors warning’ has to do with atmospheric thickness,
红光散射最少
red light scatters the least,
所以红光能穿透一场可能到来的暴风前的厚大气层
so it can make it through the thicker air of a possible stormfront.
在40度角以下的星星正常发光
Stars below a 40 degree angle twinkle normally,
但事实上头顶上的星星不发光
but stars overhead actually don’t.
当头顶的星星开始闪烁 说明要下雨了
When the higher-up stars start to twinkle… rain is coming!
另外 人们还会记录一年中每日的天气情况
Not to mention people kept records of weather on days of the year
历史记录能帮我们预测未来
and knowing the history helps us predict the future,
但却不是很准确
but it’s not very precise.
历法是很糟糕的天气预报方法
Almanacs are bad weather predictors.
在四月下雪并不意味着全球气候没有在变暖
And snow in April doesn’t mean global warming is a hoax.
天气是一个大型的复杂的也是全球化的问题
Weather is big and complicated and global.
老实说 我们仍在解决
And to be honest, we’re still figuring it out.
最后 别向你当地的气象学家泼冷水了
In the end, stop raining on your local meteorologists parade.
顺便说一下 气候和天气是不同的东西
Climate and weather are different things, by the way.
今天我不涉及这个问题
I’m not even going to touch that today.
但是如果全球变暖是真的
But if global warming is real,
难道NASA在撒谎吗?
then is NASA lying?
因为南极冰川正在扩大!
Because Antarctic ice is growing!
在这个视频中找到更多相关内容
Find out more about it in this video.
你喜欢你们那儿的气象学家吗?
Do you love your local meteorologist?
在下面的评论中告诉我你的想法
Tell me your thoughts down in the comments,
花几秒订阅这个频道
and take a second and subscribe to the channal!
感谢观看 粉丝们
Thank you so much for watching, fan!
我们下期再见
I’ll see you next time on Seeker.
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视频概述

英国人眼中的天气预报自带呆萌属性,从没准确过。但天气预报真的一无是处吗?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

【MED】恩来

审核员

审核员U

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HokBI67Pc5o

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