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解读黄金市场的波动性

The Volatility of the Gold Market, Explained | WSJ

Over the past few months,
在过去几个月里
the price of gold has been going haywire.
黄金价格此起彼伏 乱作一团
You can see it on this chart.
您能从这张表格看出来
As the coronavirus pandemic took hold in March,
继三月爆发的新冠疫情
the price crashed, alongside stocks,
黄金价格和股票同时崩盘
and then quickly regained.
然后又迅速回升
Then, a frenzy of investment drove up the price to all-time highs.
而后 一轮新投资让金价创下新高
On August 4th, it shot past $2,000 a troy ounce
四月四日 黄金价格首次超过
for the first time ever,
每金衡盎司两千美元
before another week of big swings.
接下来一周 价格又开始猛跌
This volatility is drawing both main street
这种波动不仅吸引了普通大众
and Wall Street investors seeking fast gains
还吸引了华尔街投资者来“赚快钱”
and leading some analysts to call it a modern-day gold rush.
一些分析家称之为现代“淘金热”
But these big moves
而这一阵“淘金热”
call into question gold’s reputation
让人们开始怀疑
as a safe-haven asset.
黄金还是安全资产吗?
Prices can move at a moment’s notice
黄金价格每分每秒都在波动
without fundamental reason.
且毫无理论可言
More volatility means more risk,
金价波动性越大 风险越高
and that means gold isn’t the haven
这也就意味着
necessarily, that some people think it is.
黄金并不一定是人们认为的“安全资产”
To you, understand why the price of gold is so volatile,
要想理解为何黄金价格如此不稳定
first you need to understand how gold trading works.
你首先需要明白 黄金交易如何运作
黄金交易 华尔街收录词汇
Like other precious metals,
和其他贵金属一样
the price of gold is tied to physical assets.
黄金价格和实体资产相关
The physical gold market involves mining,
整个实体黄金市场包括开采
refining, travel and sale.
提纯 运输 出售
Gold mining happens on every continent except Antarctica.
除了南极洲 每块大陆都在开采黄金
And the top-producing countries
而黄金产出最多的国家包括
are China, Russia, and Australia.
中国 俄罗斯 澳大利亚
This work adds up to about 2,500
每年黄金开采总量
to 3000 metric tons of gold each year.
高达2500至3000公吨
This metal is then smelted and refined
接下来将黄金融化 提纯
before being turned into bars, coins,
然后再做成金条 金币
and other products like jewelry.
以及如珠宝之类的产品
The gold is then shipped around the world,
然后通过商用飞机
often stashed in the cargo of commercial aircrafts.
将成品运往全球各地
Much of it is sent to London.
其中的大多数运往伦敦
Mostly hidden beneath the streets of the city.
绝大部分储藏在城市地下
The Bank of England’s vaults
在英格兰银行的金库里
hold around 400,000 bars of gold
储存了将近40万块金条
worth over $260 billion dollars.
其价值逾2600亿美元
The physical trading of gold in London
伦敦的实体黄金交易
is done behind closed doors and in secret by a few banks.
都是几个银行在背地里操作的
So, these banks work with the London Bullion Market Association
这些银行和伦敦金银协会合作
to set the physical price of a troy ounce of gold,
并规定了一金盎司的黄金价格
and that price determines how much gold is worth everywhere.
而价格就决定了所有黄金的价值
The gold stashed in London is rivaled
世界上 只有黄金持有量最多的银行
only by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
即纽约联邦储备银行
which holds the world’s largest hoard of physical gold.
才能和伦敦的黄金储备匹敌
In other places around the world,
在世界上的其他地方
gold is a common investment as well.
黄金投资也很常见
In a lot of cultures in Asia,
在亚洲很多文化里
people see gold as something that’s having prestige
人们认为 黄金象征的权威
and intrinsic value that can be
以及黄金的内在价值
passed down from generation to generation.
能够代代相传
That can be a big source of physical demand
可能这也是人们购入实体黄金首饰
for jewelry and bars and coins.
买入金条 金币的一大原因
When individual investors want to buy in,
散户意欲买进黄金时
they generally have a few options.
通常会有几项选择
They can purchase physical gold in person from dealers
他们能从经销商手里亲自选购
or on websites like APMEX.
或在网上购买 如APMEX交易所
They can bid on thousands of dollars worth of gold through eBay.
也能在eBay上拍卖价值上千美元的黄金
And they can buy exchange-traded funds that hold physical metal.
也可以购入黄金ETFs
The biggest of these is SPDR gold shares,
但最多的还是黄金股票
which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
这些股票在纽约股票交易所买进卖出
But this is just the physical market.
这不过是黄金实体市场
Gold is also traded on a whole different market
黄金也能在与期货有关的
that is tied to commodity futures.
完全不同的市场里交易
This takes us back to New York,
这还要从纽约说起
where gold futures trade on the COMEX division of the New York mercantile Exchange.
在纽约商品交易所COMEX分部交易黄金期货
Futures are contracts which lock the price of a commodity
期货是规定某商品价格的合约
that will change hands at a specific future date.
未来某天 该商品会被转手卖给他人
A standard futures contract is tied to 100 ounces of gold
黄金期货合约中 一个标准手为100盎司黄金
worth over $200,000, depending on the market.
其价值超过20万美元(据市场而定)
The most actively traded month for gold futures right now is December
目前 十二月的黄金交易最为活跃
because that’s a month people expect
因为人们预期在十二月
the pandemics issues to maybe be resolved by,
疫情可能得到解决
and it’s a month around the November’s presidential election.
并且在十一月总统选举后
A lot of people are very nervous about the outcome
许多人对竞选结果心存顾虑
of that election and that it might be delayed,
或担心选举会推迟
so they’re using these December gold futures
所以他们选择十二月的黄金期货
to give themselves options
以期获得更多选择
and protect against market turmoil.
同时防止市场崩盘
But gold has slipped lately after a long run-up,
但金价在长期上涨后 最近又下跌些许
a reminder that momentum in this market can change quickly.
这提醒了我们 黄金市场瞬息万变
Still, this hasn’t stopped gold bugs.
但“金虫”可不会就此作罢
And there are a few reasons why people
现下人们继续向黄金大笔投资
continue to pile money into the metal right now.
有如下几个原因
For a lot of investors, it started in March,
对许多投资人来说 自三月起
when mines, refineries and airlines shut down across the world,
全球都终止了黄金开采 提纯 空运
upended the system usually used to move gold
也不再横跨大西洋运输黄金
across the Atlantic and stabilized prices.
运输方式彻底改变 金价也稳定下来
But when the pandemic hit,
疫情席卷全球时
investors feared there wouldn’t be a way
投资人害怕市场之间
to physically move gold between the markets.
实体黄金不能流通
This caused physical gold purchases to soar,
这就造成了黄金购入量飞涨
leading to a severe shortage
从而导致黄金严重短缺
that drove up the price of futures.
继而拔高期货价格
But there are other reasons too.
同时其中也有其他原因
There are a lot of people who are very bullish on gold
有许多人都看好黄金市场
and think it’s an alternative currency
他们认为黄金是另一种货币
that provides a hedge against inflation
这种货币不仅能预防通货膨胀
and is very attractive
在利率低迷时
when interest rates are low.
对投资人来说也很有吸引力
Many bulls are piling into the sector
很多卖空者涌入市场
because they think the Federal Reserve
因为卖空者们认为美联储
and other central banks
以及其他中央银行
are eroding the value of paper money
向全球金融市场注入大量现金
by pumping a ton of cash into the global financial system
维持经济发展
to support the economy.
导致纸币不断贬值
The increased activity is contributing to momentum trading,
更活跃的市场促成了惯性交易
driving a frenzy for gold, similar to stocks.
和股票潮相似 掀起一阵黄金热
But if inflation doesn’t materialize,
但若是通货膨胀没有发生
the momentum that gold is seeing could unravel.
黄金市场现在的势头可能会消失
Analysts say the current trading environment is extremely risky.
分析家表示 当今的交易环境极具风险
People say all of the economic and political instability
人们说 所有经济政治不稳定的局面
could last for a lot longer than we think.
会比我们估计的持续更久
At the same time, if the economic recovery goes better than expected,
同时 若经济复苏超过预期
if there’s a coronavirus vaccine more quickly than we think,
如果新冠疫苗比预计更早问世
the gold could have some issues.
黄金市场可能就麻烦了
This means that gold could face
也就是说在未来
more volatility moving forward.
黄金市场波动会更加剧烈

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视频概述

为何黄金市场如此吃香?其中的经济原理是什么?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

刘小贵

审核员

审核员SR

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOpzs7IP51U

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