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为失败喝彩带来的意外惊喜 – 译学馆
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为失败喝彩带来的意外惊喜

The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure | Astro Teller

1962年在莱斯大学,
In 1962 at Rice University,
肯尼迪向国民宣布了他的梦想,
JFK told the country about a dream he had,
十年内完成把人类送上月球的梦想。
a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.
即有名的登月计划。
The eponymous moonshot.
没有人知道这件事有多大可能
No one knew if it was possible to do
但是只要有可能 他就会全面地计划来落实这件事
but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.
这才是伟大的梦想。
That’s how great dreams are.
伟大的梦想不仅仅是幻想,
Great dreams aren’t just visions,
它们是幻想 和让幻想成真的计划的组合产物。
they’re visions coupled to strategies for making them real.
我非常有幸可以 在这个疯狂工厂工作。
I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory.
在「X」, 也就是常说的「谷歌X」工作的时候,
At X — formerly called Google X —
你可以看到航空工程师 和时尚设计师一起工作
you’ll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer
可以看到前实战军事指挥官 和激光专家一起头脑风暴。
and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts.
这些发明家,工程师和工匠 在一起设计
These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies
可以让世界更好的科学技术。
that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.
我们用“疯狂计划”这个词 来提醒我们仰望星空
We use the word “moonshots” to remind us to keep our visions big —
去坚持梦想。
to keep dreaming.
我们用“工厂”这个词提醒我们
And we use the word “factory” to remind ourselves
脚踏实地,
that we want to have concrete visions —
用具体的方案把梦想付诸于现实。
concrete plans to make them real.
这是我们疯狂计划的蓝图。
Here’s our moonshot blueprint.
首先,
Number one:
我们着眼于那些困扰亿万人
we want to find a huge problem in the world
的世界性难题。
that affects many millions of people.
其次,
Number two:
我们想找到一个彻底的解决方案。
we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem.
最后,
And then number three:
必须要有理由相信
there has to be some reason to believe
这个可以用于完美解决问题的方法
that the technology for such a radical solution
在技术上是可行的。
could actually be built.
我有一个秘密。
But I have a secret for you.
疯狂工厂是个混乱的地方,
The moonshot factory is a messy place.
我们不仅没有避免混乱,
But rather than avoid the mess,
没有假装混乱不存在,
pretend it’s not there,
反而我们希望混乱成为我们的优势
we’ve tried to make that our strength.
我们的大多数时间 都用来搞坏各种东西
We spend most of our time breaking things
并试图证明我们是错的。
and trying to prove that we’re wrong.
就是这样,这就是秘密。
That’s it, that’s the secret.
从问题最难的部分着手。
Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first.
激动地大喊:
Get excited and cheer,
“嘿!我们今天要扼杀我们的项目么?”
“Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?”
我们一直保持着这种有趣的平衡,
We’ve got this interesting balance going
一方面我们用 我们的无尽的乐观化作幻想的动力,
where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions.
另一方面我们 通过不停地质疑回到现实,
But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism
把现实注幻想之中。
to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.
我将会给各位展示一些
I want to show you a few of the projects
中途搁浅的项目,
that we’ve had to leave behind on the cutting room floor,
和一些到目前为止
and also a few of the gems
不仅依然存在,
that at least so far, have not only survived that process,
还更加生机勃勃的项目。
but have been accelerated by it.
去年我们扼杀了一个 叫做自动垂直种植的项目。
Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming.
这是我们种出来的生菜。
This is some of the lettuce that we grew.
世界上九分之一的人 面临营养不良的问题。
One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment.
所以需要一个疯狂的计划 来解决这个问题。
So this is a moonshot that needs to happen.
相比传统农业,
Vertical farming uses 10 times less water
垂直种植只用十分之一的水 和百分之一的土地。
and a hundred times less land than conventional farming.
而且由于
And because you can grow the food close to where it’s consumed,
蔬菜不用被长距离运输
you don’t have to transport it large distances.
我们在很多领域求取得了突破
We made progress in a lot of the areas
比如自动收获和高效照明。
like automated harvesting and efficient lighting.
但是不幸的是,
But unfortunately,
稻谷这样的主要作物 无法用这种方法种植。
we couldn’t get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way.
所以我们扼杀了项目。
So we killed the project.
还有一个重大的问题。
Here’s another huge problem.
我们付出了资源和环境的重大代价
We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage
来进行世界范围内的货物运输。
to ship goods worldwide.
内陆地区的经济发展
Economic development of landlocked countries
严重收到货运基础设施的限制。
is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure.
完美的解决方案?
The radical solution?
一个比空气轻的可变浮力货船。
A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
这项计划有潜力
This has the potential to lower,
全面的减少
at least overall,
运输所需要的时间金钱和碳足迹,
the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping
而且不需要专门的航路。
without needing runways.
我们实现了一系列科技突破
We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs
让我们减少了足够多的预算以至于
that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough
我们可以实际上造出这些船。
that we could actually make these ships —
至少单位空间上不是很贵。
inexpensively enough in volume.
但是无论单位空间多么便宜,
But however cheap they would have been to make in volume
我们发现想要设计并制造第一艘船
it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars
需要2亿美元。
to design and build the first one.
2亿美元实在太多了。
200 million dollars is just way too expensive.
因为X公司具有紧张的
Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops
遇到问题-学习-新设计反馈循环,
of making mistakes and learning and new designs,
我们不能
we can’t spend 200 million dollars
为了验证我们的想法
to get the first data point
就在项目的第一个数据点上 花费2亿美元。
about whether we’re on the right track or not.
如果我们的计划有漏洞,
If there’s an Achilles’ heel in one our projects,
我们希望马上知道 而不是最后才知晓。
we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road.
所以我们也扼杀了这个项目。
So we killed this project, too.
发现了项目中的重大缺陷
Discovering a major flaw in a project
不一定总是意味着项目的终结。
doesn’t always mean that it ends the project.
有的时候它反而提供了 一种更有成效的方法。
Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.
这是我们全自动驾驶工具的原型,
This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype,
它没有方向盘和刹车。
which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal.
但这却不是一开始我们想要的。
But that wasn’t actually our goal when we started.
120万人每年死于交通事故,
With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year,
制造一辆自动驾驶的车 自然是一个疯狂的计划。
building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take.
三年半之前,
Three and a half years ago,
当我们使用凌志的 自动驾驶翻新车进行实验时
when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
实验状况很好, 所以我们拿给其他谷歌成员试驾。
they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers
让他们评价一下这种体验。
to find out what they thought of the experience.
我们发现
And what we discovered
让汽车进行大部分驾驶工作
was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving
在紧急情况下交给司机进行驾驶
and just hand over to the users in case of emergency
是一个非常糟糕的计划。
was a really bad plan.
它不安全
It wasn’t safe
因为司机来不及开车。
because the users didn’t do their job.
他们没有时刻保持警惕
They didn’t stay alert
以防车把控制权交还给他们。
in case the car needed to hand control back to them.
项目组遭受了巨大的危及,
This was a major crisis for the team.
一夜回到解放前。
It sent them back to the drawing board.
随后他们从新的角度 想到了一个完美的方案。
And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective.
在新的方案中你只是一个乘客,
Aim for a car where you’re truly a passenger.
你告诉车你要去哪里,
You tell the car where you want to go,
按一下按钮,
you push a button
车会自动的从A带你去B。
and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.
我们很庆幸
We’re really grateful
在项目的一开始 我们就想到了这一步。
that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did.
从那以后我们所做的所有 都围绕着新的计划。
And it’s shaped everything we’ve done since then.
现在我们的车已经 自动驾驶超过140万英里
And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles,
它们每天都
and they’re out everyday
在加州的山景城 和德州的奥斯丁的街道上跑。
on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.
自动驾驶车团队改变了 他们看问题的角度。
The cars team shifted their perspective.
这是X公司的真谛之一。
This is one of X’s mantras.
有的时候换个角度 比变聪明更加强大。
Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.
再说说风能利用。
Take wind energy.
这是我最喜欢的转变思路的例子。
It’s one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting.
我们没有办法比
There’s no way that we’re going to build
工业领域的专家 制造更好的风力涡轮机。
a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry.
但是我们想到了一种 让它飞得更高的办法。
But we found a way to get up higher into the sky,
越高的天空风力越强 也蕴含越多的能量,
and so get access to faster, more consistent winds,
但是我们需要上百吨钢铁的支架。
and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
我们的马堪尼能量风筝从基站升起
Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch
它的翅膀上有很多旋转的螺旋桨。
by spinning up those propellers along its wing.
它飞起来的时候会拉出一根
And it pulls out a tether as it rises,
用来传递能量的绳子。
pulling energy up through the tether.
当这根绳子拉直的时候,
Once the tether’s all the way out,
风筝就进入了侧风圈中。
it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.
这时那些飞机上的螺旋桨 就变成了空中的涡轮机。
And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines.
用绳子把能量传递下来。
And that sends energy back down the tether.
到目前我们还没发现 扼杀这个项目的办法。
We haven’t yet found a way to kill this project.
它在这种压力下活得越久 我们越因为可能为世界
And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get
找到了一种更便宜的, 更广泛的获得风能的方式
that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form
而惊喜不已。
of wind energy for the world.
也许我们最疯狂最有名的项目 就是气球项目了。
Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon.
我们在尝试用热气球提供互联网。
We’re trying to make balloon-powered Internet.
平流层的热气球网络
A network of balloons in the stratosphere
可以让农村和偏远地区 全部连接互联网。
that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world.
这可以让超过40亿
This could bring online as many as four billion more people,
到今天还没有网络 或网络不畅的人用上网络。
who today have little or no internet connection.
但是你不能造一个基站,
But you can’t just take a cell tower,
绑在气球上固定在天上。
strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky.
风太大了,气球会被吹走。
The winds are too strong, it would be blown away.
气球又离地太远了不能固定在地上。
And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.
我们有了一个疯狂的想法。
Here comes the crazy moment.
我们何不
What if, instead,
任由这些气球飘流
we let the balloons drift
但是告诉它们如何飘流 并让他们飘到指定地点呢?
and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go?
事实上平流层的风
It turns out the stratosphere has winds
在不同层有不同的速度和方向。
that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata.
所以我们希望用 巧妙的算法和世界风向数据
So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world,
来轻微地操纵气球,
we could maneuver the balloons a bit,
让他们可以在平流层 上升或下降一点点
getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
以借助不同速度和方向的风。
to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds.
这个想法基于足够多的气球
The idea is to have enough balloons
这样的话当一个气球 飞出了你的区域,
so as one balloon floats out of your area,
另一个气球恰好进入,
there’s another balloon ready to float into place,
交接网络连接,
handing off the internet connection,
就像你在高速公路上开车时
just like your phone hands off between cell towers
电话信号在不同基站交接一样。
as you drive down the freeway.
项目的名字一直提醒着我们
We get how crazy that vision sounds —
我们的想法是多么的不可思议。
there’s the name of the project to remind us of that.
从2012年开始,
So since 2012,
气球团队开始解决项目中最难的
the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult
最有希望扼杀项目的问题。
and so the most likely to kill their project.
首先他们要做的,
The first thing that they did
是让平流层中的 气球与地上的接收器
was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere
建立Wi-Fi连接。
down to an antenna on the ground.
他们成功了。
It worked.
相信我很多人打赌这会失败。
And I promise you there were bets that it wasn’t going to.
所以我们继续研究。
So we kept going.
我们可以让气球直接和手机建立联系
Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets,
从而省去中间的接收装置吗?
so that we didn’t need the antenna as an intermediary receiver?
可以做到。
Yeah.
可以增加气球的Wi-Fi带宽
Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough
到正常网络连接的程度么?
so it was a real Internet connection?
可以让人们用 气球网络做更多的事情么?
So that people could have something more than just SMS?
一开始的测试速度还不到1M/s,
The early tests weren’t even a megabit per second,
现在速度已经达到了15M/s。
but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second.
足够看TED的演讲了。
Enough to watch a TED Talk.
我们可以实现气球之间的沟通么?
Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky
这样我们就可以 把信号更广地覆盖到农村地区。
so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas?
可以做到。
Check.
我们可以用传统气球的5%的花销
Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days,
做一个像房子那么大的气球
while costing less than five percent
并让它在天空上面 呆超过100天么?
of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make?
是的,最终我们可以。
Yes. In the end.
我保证,只要你能想到的 我们都会尽力做到
But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there.
我们制造了圆的银白气球
We made round, silvery balloons.
我们制造了超大枕头气球
We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.
我们制造了蓝鲸那么大的气球
We made balloons the size of a blue whale.
我们捅破了很多气球
We busted a lot of balloons.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
因为这个项目会不会被扼杀 很大程度上取决于
Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project
一个重要的技术, 就是如何在空中控制气球。
was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky,
其中一个重要的实验就是把气球放在气球中,
one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
这样大气球中就有两种区域, 一种里面是空气一种里面是氦气。
So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium.
通过打气可以让气球变重,
The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier,
通过放气让它变轻。
or lets air out to make it lighter.
通过改变重量控制升降,
And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall,
这就是它的转向装置。
and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism.
通过上升和下降
It floats up or down,
气球可以借助风力 去它想去的地方。
hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.
但是这个气球已经足够好到 可以周游世界了么?
But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world?
一开始不可以,
Barely at first,
但是后面越来越好
but better all the time.
这是我们最新的气球
This particular balloon, our latest balloon,
他可以通过在空中 多达2英里的垂直运动
can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky
从20000公里外的地方 飘到距离目的地
and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go
误差小于500米的地方。
from 20,000 kilometers away.
我们还有更多要做的事,
We have lots more to do
包括系统的微调和减少开销。
in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs.
去年一个造价不贵的气球
But last year, a balloon built inexpensively
用187天周游了全世界19次。
went around the world 19 times over 187 days.
我们将继续努力。
So we’re going to keep going.
(掌声)
(Applause)
现在我们的气球
Our balloons today
可以满足一个复杂系统的所有需求。
are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do.
我们在和世界各地的通信公司联系,
We’re in discussions with telcos around the world,
而且我们今年将在印度尼西亚的上空
and we’re going to fly over places like Indonesia
进行实地的测试。
for real service testing this year.
这些如果成真了
This probably all sounds too good to be true,
就太美妙了。
and you’re right.
无畏地
Being audacious
从事重大的,有风险的工作
and working on big, risky things
让很多人从心里感到不适。
makes people inherently uncomfortable.
你不能简单地逼迫他们尽快失败。
You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast.
他们会抗拒,会担心。
People resist. They worry.
“如果我失败了会发生什么?”
“What will happen to me if I fail?
“人们会嘲笑我么?”
Will people laugh at me?
“我会被开除么?”
Will I be fired?”
演讲的开始我分享了我的秘密。
I started with our secret.
现在我将告诉各位这是怎么做到的。
I’m going to leave you with how we actually make it happen.
让人们敢于挑战那些重大的 有挑战性的工作的
The only way to get people to work on big, risky things —
唯一办法,
audacious ideas —
让他们直面问题中 最难的那部分的的唯一办法,
and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first,
就是
is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.
在X公司我们努力 让失败看起来很正常。
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.
当团队发现了明显的问题 就扼杀他们的想法
Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table
因为他们会因此得到奖励。
because they’re rewarded for it.
会得到同事的掌声。
They get applause from their peers.
会得到主管, 尤其是我的拥抱和击掌。
Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular.
他们因此而被提拔。
They get promoted for it.
我们对终结一个计划 的团队的每个人都会进行嘉奖,
We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects,
无论团队里是2个人 还是超过30个人。
from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.
在疯狂工厂,我们相信梦想。
We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory.
但是积极地质疑
But enthusiastic skepticism
并不是无限乐观的敌人,
is not the enemy of boundless optimism.
反而是它的最佳搭档。
It’s optimism’s perfect partner.
正是质疑让很多想法得以实现。
It unlocks the potential in every idea.
我们终将创造 我们梦中的未来。
We can create the future that’s in our dreams.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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审核员

自动通过审核

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t13Rq4oc7A

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