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人工智能武器的威胁 – 译学馆
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人工智能武器的威胁

The Threat of AI Weapons

我会在视频最后解释更多
I’ll explain more at the end,
先让我用五个词介绍视频
but let me set up this clip in five words:
机器人杀手 斯蒂芬•弗雷 手表
robot killers, Stephen Fry, watch
自主武器被称为
Autonomous weapons have been described
是继火药和核弹之后的
as the third revolution in warfare
第三次战争革命
after gunpowder and nuclear bombs.
可以大规模地发动快速毁灭性的袭击
They could mount rapid devastating attacks on a huge scale.
包括埃隆·马斯克和史蒂芬·霍金在内的数千名专家
Thousands of experts including Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have
已经签署了一封公开信 呼吁禁止使用这些武器
signed an open letter calling for a ban on the weapons.
无数的启示1942.6.8-2018.3.14
AN INSPIRATION TO MILLION8 JUN 1942 – 14 MAR 2018
他们说无人机能够自动
They say drones that can autonomously
发现并消除符合某些条件的人
find and eliminate people meeting certain criteria
在几年内而非十几年内都是可能实行的
are feasible within years, not decades
但禁止的请求已经被
But calls for a ban have been rejected
世界上十大军事强国拒绝
by the world’s 10 largest military powers
马斯克警告说 人工智能优势的国际竞争
and Musk has warned that international competition for AI superiority
是第三次大战的最可能原因 那么
is the most likely cause of World War 3 So,
我们有应对灾难的措施吗?
do we have a recipe for disaster?
让我们就最近的形势分析
Let’s start with the current situation
奥巴马总统在位期间 美军
During Obama’s presidency the number of American troops
在战区的人数下降了约90%
in war zones dropped by around 90 percent
但是比之前多了十倍的无人机袭击
But there were ten times more drone strikes
俄罗斯有许多无人驾驶坦克正在研发
Russia has multiple unmanned drone tanks in development
还有完全自主的武装车辆守卫导弹基地
and completely autonomous armed vehicles guarding missile bases
美国计划使其艾布拉姆斯坦克
America plans to enable its Abrams
能够控制机器僚机
tanks to control robotic wingman vehicles
在攻击敌人的同时保护载有人的坦克
to attack the enemy while protecting the manned tank
美国还考虑了一种远程控制的
It is also considering a remote-controlled version
高速双履带车
of the high speed ripsaw vehicle
空中力量已被使用且相对来说不受制裁
Air power is already used with relative impunity
战斗机很快就会使用
And soon the fighters will use
AI来控制能够携带武器防空系统的无人机僚机
AI to control drone wingmen able to carry weapons
并让人类飞行员远离危险
test air defenses and keep human pilots even further from danger
世界各地的反弹道导弹防御系统
Around the world anti-ballistic missile defenses
和无人机正在削弱核威慑力
and drones are diminishing nuclear deterrence
这是美国海军的新型无人船
This is the US Navy’s new unmanned
专门用来搜寻潜艇和发射地面武器
ship designed to hunt submarines and launch surface weapons
它每天花费大约2万美元
It will cost around 20 thousand dollars per day to operate
与一艘载人驱逐舰每天70万美元相比
compared to 700 thousand dollars per day for a manned destroyer
在模拟实验中
In a simulation test
空军研究实验室AI无人驾驶飞机屡次击败人类飞行员
with the Air Force Research Lab AI drones repeatedly defeated a human pilot
前空军作战指挥官简·李
Former Air Force battle manager Jean
每天尝试击落和
Lee tried and failed to hit the drones
破坏无人机但失败了
and was destroyed by them every time
他说它们似乎意识到了他的意图
He said they seemed to be aware of his intention
并立即对他的行动和攻击做出反应
and reacted instantly to his movements and attacks
自主武器对大规模生产来说是很便宜的
Autonomous weapons would be cheap to mass-produce
恐怖分子和独裁者也可以
and may become available to terrorists and dictators
在黑市找到
on the black market
美国国防科学委员会最近的一份报告称
A recent report by the US defense Science Board called
请求立即采取行动加快军事AI的发展
for immediate action to accelerate military AI development
并了解其他国家的能力
and understand the capabilities of other powers
报告还指出商用无人机正在迅速改进
It also noted that commercial drones are rapidly improving
私人AI公司远远领先于军方
and private AI firms are well ahead of the military
有人认为AI会减少错误造成的意外伤亡
Some argue AI will reduce accidental casualties by making fewer mistakes
如果一个士兵认为某人是一威胁
If a soldier believes someone is a threat
此人的生命就取决于士兵做出的快速决定
their life depends on making a quick decision
另一方面 机器人可以
A robot on the other hand could react a
在被集火前零点几秒前才做出反应
fraction of a second before it’s fired on
甚至是等到被攻击的时候才反应
or even wait until it’s attacked
但是这些武器也可在
But the weapons could also be extremely effective
暗杀 镇压人民
at assassinations, subduing populations
和选择性杀戮特定种族群体方面极为有效
and selectively killing particular ethnic groups
发生在第二次军事革命时的古巴导弹危机
The second revolution in warfare brought the world
差点引发第三次世界大战
close to World War 3 with the Cuban Missile Crisis
第三次革命可能更加动荡
The third revolution may be even more volatile
我们还需为AI自身带来的
We also need to plan
更大威胁制定计划
for an even greater threat from AI itself
许多专家相信它将超越人类的智能
Many experts believe it will surpass human intelligence
在未来几十年里
in the next few decades
然后它可以完全控制世界网络武器
It may then assume full control of the world’s networked weapons
它会用于维护和平吗?
Would it use them for peacekeeping?
还是让人类快速被终结?
Or for bringing humanity to a quick end?
人类是否还能保持住控制
Whether or not humans retain control and AI
AI军备竞赛可能是一场世界末日的竞赛
arms race may be a race to Armageddon
我们认为
We believe a ban that’s
难以执行的禁令比
difficult to enforce is better than a world flooded
充斥着廉价匿名自主武器的世界要好
with cheap anonymous autonomous weapons
你觉得呢?
What do you think?
所以 希望你喜欢
So I hope you enjoyed
该片或者被它惊吓
that clip or were frightened by it
请在下面的评论中告诉我你的想法
Let me know what you thought in the comments below
这段视频实际上是
That clip was actually made
我的朋友制作的 他们的频道叫做Pindex
by friends of mine who run a YouTube channel called Pindex
他们制作了非常高质量的教育视频
They make incredibly high quality educational videos
如果你想看一看
If you want to check them out,
我会在视频下方加入链接
I will put a link in the description and one up here Now,
你知道每当我看到
you know whenever I
波士顿动力公司视频出来
see those Boston Dynamics videos come out
我总是惊讶于
I’m always simultaneously amazed
他们所能取得的成就
at the achievements that they’ve been able to produce
同时又害怕看到的是
and simultaneously scared that I’m watching the birth
未来机器人统治者的祖先的诞生
of the ancestors of our future robot overlords So,
我对此有复杂的情感
yeah, I’ve got mixed feelings about this
但我认为这是一个非常重要的话题
but I think it’s a really important topic and
所以我想分享这个链接
that’s why I wanted to share this clip with you
我也想强调Pindex伙伴们的优秀工作
And I also wanted to highlight the fine work of the guys
所以 一定要去看看它们
over at Pindex, so yeah, definitely check them out
对于有些人问
and for those of you who are asking
德瑞克你的视频呢?
Derrick what about your videos?
你最近为什么不经常发帖?
Why haven’t you been posting very much lately? Well,
我一直在研究一些东西
I have been working on some stuff
事实上 我有一个完整的
In fact, I’ve got a full-length
90分钟纪录片在这个夏天会与大家见面
90-minute documentary coming out in the summer of this year
大家都可以看到
It’ll be available globally
敬请关注
so watch out for that.
之后我会给你们带来一些最新消息
I will be giving you some updates closer to the day
我还有一个新系列的计划
And I also have a pilot for a brand new series
我和分钟物理 分钟地球一起研究的
that I worked on with minutephysics and MinuteEarth,
我会在描述中放链接
I will put a link in the description
如果你在美国就可以看到它
And if you’re in the U.S., you can go check it out.
其它地方有地理封锁
Other places are geo-blocked
你知道我不能说太多
You know I can’t say anything for that
但我们的意图是把这个系列
but it’s our intention to try to get this series out to
尽可能地带给世界更多人
as many people around the world as we possibly can
如果你能看到它
So if you can check it out,
现在就去 我很快就会发布更多的视频
go and do that now and I will be posting some more videos soon
我保证并希望它能
I promise and hopefully it will
解释我为什么缺席了一段时间
explain why I’ve been absent for some of this time, so yeah.
我希望你能喜欢它
I hope you enjoyed that clip

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视频概述

人类、AI、未来

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

皇冠下的人~

审核员

审核员 EY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAgXwUwQoPA

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