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创业能成功的第一要义

The single biggest reason why startups succeed | Bill Gross

I’m really excited to share with you
很高兴能和大家分享
some findings that really surprise me
一些让我很惊讶的发现
about what makes companies succeed the most,
它们是关于企业最成功的因素
what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
以及实际上影响创业成功的最重要因素
I believe that the startup organization
我相信 创业是
is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.
让世界更美好的绝佳方式之一
If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives
如果你给手下的人适当的股权激励
and organize them in a startup,
然后把他们组在一起创业
you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.
你就能以一种前所未有的方式 激发他们的潜能
You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
推动他们实现极伟大的事业
But if the startup organization is so great,
但如果创业真的那么棒
why do so many fail?
为何还有这么多人失败?
That’s what I wanted to find out.
这就是我想弄明白的地方
I wanted to find out what actually matters most
我想找出影响创业成功的
for startup success.
关键因素
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,
我想试着将它系统化
avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have
避免我的直觉 和我的误解影响认知
from so many companies I’ve seen over the years.
我这些年观察了许多公司
I wanted to know this
我想知道影响创业成功的关键因素
because I’ve been starting businesses since I was 12 years old
因为我12岁就开始“创业”了
when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,
初中时 我在公共汽车站卖糖果
to high school, when I made solar energy devices,
高中时 我自制太阳能设备
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
到了大学 我就做扩音器
And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.
大学毕业后 我创建了软件公司
And 20 years ago, I started IdeaLab,
20年前 我成立了“创意实验室”
and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,
在过去20年 我们创立了100多家企业
many successes, and many big failures.
有很多成功了 也有很多失败了
We learned a lot from those failures.
我们从那些失败的企业中学到了很多
So I tried to look across what factors
所以我想看看到底是什么因素
accounted the most for company success and failure.
最大程度上影响了公司的成败
So I looked at these five.
我总结了以下五个因素
First, the idea.
第一是“创意”
I used to think that the idea was everything.
我曾以为创意就是一切
I named my company Idealab for how much I worship
我把我的公司命名为“创意实验室”
the “aha!” moment when you first come up with the idea.
这是对灵光乍现时发出“啊哈”惊呼的尊重
But then over time,
但是随着时间推移
I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,
我开始想也许团队 执行力 适应力
that mattered even more than the idea.
比创意更为重要
I never thought I’d be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
我从未想过 我会在TED讲台上引用拳王泰森的话
but he once said,
他曾说过
“Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face.” (Laughter)
“人们脸上挨了一拳后才有自己的计划”(笑声)
And I think that’s so true about business as well.
我认为他说的很对 对于商业也是这样
So much about a team’s execution
一个团队的执行力着重体现在
is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.
被顾客打脸时的适应能力
The customer is the true reality.
顾客是非常现实的
And that’s why I came to think
所以我开始思考
that the team maybe was the most important thing.
也许团队才是最重要的因素
Then I started looking at the business model.
然后我开始研究商业模式
Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?
公司有明确的途径产生收益吗?
That started rising to the top in my thinking
这个问题在我的思考中开始变得最为重要:
about maybe what mattered most for success.
或许商业模式是成功的第一要素
Then I looked at the funding.
然后我研究了“资金”
Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.
有时候公司筹到了大量的资金
Maybe that’s the most important thing?
也许这才是最重要的东西?
And then of course, the timing.
接下来当然是“时机”
Is the idea way too early and the world’s not ready for it?
这个想法是不是太超前了?
Is it early, as in, you’re in advance and you have to educate the world?
是不是为时过早 这种超前足以让你成为先驱吗?
Is it just right?
时机正合适吗?
Or is it too late, and there’s already too many competitors?
或者是太晚 已经有了太多的竞争者?
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors
所以我十分认真地
across many companies.
研究这五个因素对公司的影响
And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,
我研究了“创意实验室”创立的100家公司
and 100 non-Idealab companies
和100家非“创意实验室公司”创立的公司
to try and come up with something scientific about it.
尝试着去科学地分析这些因素
So first, on these Idealab companies,
首先 那些“创意实验室”成立的公司中
the top five companies —
前五名是
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com —
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com
those all became billion-dollar successes.
这些都是盈利十亿美元的成功企业
And the five companies on the bottom —
而最差的五家公司是
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink —
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink
we all had high hopes for, but didn’t succeed.
都是我们曾寄予厚望 却没能成功的
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes
所以我试着排列这些因素
how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.
并按其对公司的影响打了分
And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,
那些非“创意实验室”创立的公司 有些非常成功
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and YouTube and LinkedIn.
比如Airbnb, Instagram, Uber, YouTube, LinkedIn
And some failures:
而有些失败了
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
比如Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
Flooz and Friendster.
Flooz 还有Friendster
The bottom companies had intense funding,
这些没成功的公司 拥有大量的资金
they even had business models in some cases,
有的甚至还有商业模式
but they didn’t succeed.
但是它们仍然没有成功
I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most
我试着去找寻
for success and failure across all of these companies,
影响这些公司成败的关键因素
and the results really surprised me.
结果却令我十分惊讶
The number one thing was timing.
排名第一的是“时机”
Timing accounted for 42 percent
在成功与失败的区分中
of the difference between success and failure.
时机占了42%的比例
Team and execution came in second,
“团队”和“执行力”排在第二
and the idea,
然后是“创意”
the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,
也就是创意的可辨性和独特性
that actually came in third.
排在了第三位
Now, this isn’t absolutely definitive,
但这不是绝对肯定的
it’s not to say that the idea isn’t important,
这并不是说创意不重要
but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn’t the most important thing.
但让我惊讶的是 创意竟然不是最重要的东西
Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
有时候它也许更为重要
The last two, business model and funding,
排在最后两位的是“商业模式”和“资金”
made sense to me actually.
这个还说得过去
I think business model makes sense to be that low
我觉得商业模式排名靠后是有据可依的
because you can start out without a business model,
因为没有商业模式 你也可以创业
and add one later if your customers are demanding what you’re creating.
以后顾客需要的话 你可以建立一个商业模式
And funding, I think as well,
我认为“资金”也是这样
if you’re underfunded at first but you’re gaining traction,
如果一开始资金不足 但是你不断获得资助
especially in today’s age,
特别是在当今时代
it’s very, very easy to get intense funding.
非常 非常容易就能筹到足够的资金
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.
所以现在让我分别举个例子
So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.
以Airbnb为例 它的成功是众人皆知的
Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors,
然而这家公司曾惨遭聪明投资人的嫌弃
because people thought,
因为他们认为
“No one’s going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger.”
“没人愿意把自己家出租给陌生人”
Of course, people proved that wrong.
当然 事实并非如此
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
但是它成功的原因之一
aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,
除了好的商业模式 好创意 好的执行力
is the timing.
还有时机
That company came out right during the height of the recession
这家公司上市时 正是经济最不景气的时候
when people really needed extra money,
当时人们真的很需要额外收入
and that maybe helped people overcome
这一点克服了他们的拒意
their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
使他们将房子租给陌生人
Same thing with Uber.
Uber也是一样
Uber came out,
Uber上市时
incredible company, incredible business model,
是非常棒的公司 拥有无与伦比的商业模式
great execution, too.
还有很好的执行力
But the timing was so perfect
并且它成立的时机非常完美
for their need to get drivers into the system.
他们需要将司机纳入公司系统
Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.
而司机正寻求额外收入 这一点是极其重要的
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
我们早期的成功 比如Citysearch
came out when people needed web pages.
人们需要网页 它应时而生
GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,
1988年我们在TED发布了GoTo.com
was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.
当时许多公司正寻找最划算的搜索工具
We thought the idea was so great,
我们觉得这个创意很棒
but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.
但实际上 时机的重要性可能略胜一筹
And then some of our failures.
我们还有一些失败的案例
We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.
比如Z.com 它是一家在线娱乐公司
We were so excited about it —
当时我们非常振奋
we raised enough money, we had a great business model,
因为我们资金充足 商业模式也很棒
we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.
我们甚至签下了好莱坞的人才
But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.
但是1999—2000年的宽带普及率太低了
It was too hard to watch video content online,
在线观看视频很不容易
you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,
你还得往浏览器里置入编解码器
and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
该公司最终在2003年关闭了
Just two years later,
仅仅两年后
when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash
Adobe Flash就解决了编解码问题
and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,
美国的宽带普及率超过50%时
YouTube was perfectly timed.
YouTube完美地应时而生
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
兼有好创意与不可多得的时机
In fact, YouTube didn’t even have a business model when it first started.
事实上 YouTube一开始并没有商业模式
It wasn’t even certain that that would work out.
甚至不确信它能否走下去
But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.
但是它成立的时机恰到好处 非常完美
So what I would say, in summary,
所以概括起来就是
is execution definitely matters a lot.
执行力确实很重要
The idea matters a lot.
创意也起了很大重要
But timing might matter even more.
但是时机更为重要
And the best way to really assess timing
评估时机的最好方式
is to really look at whether consumers are really ready
就是看顾客是否迫切需要
for what you have to offer them.
你向他们提供的东西
And to be really, really honest about it,
你要非常重视“时机”这个因素
not be in denial about any results that you see,
请不要否认眼见为实的事情
because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,
因为若你有倾心之事 就会想更进一步发展
but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.
但你必须非常重视“时机”这一因素
As I said earlier,
正如我之前所说
I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.
我认为创业可以改变世界 让世界更美好
I hope some of these insights
我希望这些观点
can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,
能帮你们提高成功的几率
and thus make something great come to the world
然后你们就能做出一些了不起的事业
that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.
是你们让这些“了不起”成为可能
Thank you very much, you’ve been a great audience.
非常感谢您的聆听
(Applause)
(鼓掌)

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视频概述

创意、团队、执行力、适应力、时机……到底哪一个才是创业成功的第一要义呢?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

ccz

审核员

审核团EM

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNpx7gpSqbY

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