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自我实现预言之运气

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Luck

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有时候你会觉得你那天走运了
Sometimes it feels like you’re having a lucky day.
也许你买到了你最喜欢的乐队的最后一张演唱会门票
Maybe you got the last concert ticket to see your favorite band,
或者你在路边捡到了20美元
you found 20 bucks on the sidewalk.
总之 你在对的时间出现在对的地点
Either way, you were in the right spot at the right time —
突然 你这一天变得太美好了
and bam! Your day suddenly got awesome.
奇怪的是 有些人居然会相信运气
Now, luck might be a strange thing for someone to believe in,
毕竟我们不能证明它真的存在
especially because we can’t prove it really exists,
但心理学家发现 运气是一股强大的力量
but psychologists have found it’s a very powerful thing.
而且你的成功
And whether or not you believe in luck
甚至可能取决于你相不相信运气
might even determine how successful you are.
大概是这样
Well, sort of.
2010年的一项经典研究中
In a now classic 2010 study,
德国心理学家挑战了28名大学生
psychologists in Germany challenged 28 university students
玩一场迷你高尔夫游戏
to a game of mini golf,
每个学生必须从一米以外
where each person had to putt the ball ten times
把球打进洞十次
from about a meter away.
一半的人被告知
Half the group was given a ball they
他们用的是一颗幸运球
were told had been lucky so far.
另一半的人则被告知
The other half was told that their ball
每个人都在用相同的球
had just been the one everyone was using.
其实 并没有什么幸运球
Now, there’s no such thing as a lucky ball,
所以理论上不会有什么影响
so it really shouldn’t have mattered.
但是那些用到“幸运球”的学生
But the students who were told they were using the lucky ball
得分比其他学生高出35%
performed 35% better.
为了找出原因
To figure out why this happened,
这群研究人员招募了约40名学生
the same researchers also recruited about 40 students
他们承认身上带着幸运物
who admitted to having lucky charms,
他们在带或不带幸运物的情况下
and they had them take a memory test either with,
进行了记忆测试
or without, their charm.
同样 被允许保留幸运物的人
Once again, the people who got to keep their charms
测试分数比较高
scored better on the quiz,
但他们在这之前就已觉得更有自信
but they also reported feeling more confident beforehand.
研究者认为 幸运物的威力来自于此
And that is where researchers think our lucky totems get their powers.
光是带着幸运物 就能增加学生的自我效能
Just having the charms around boosted the students’ self-efficacy,
使他们更相信自己具备了成功的技能和能力
or the belief that they had the right skills and abilities to succeed.
一项后续实验得出了同个结论
This played out in a follow-up experiment,
31个学生在带或不带幸运物的情况下
where 31 students with or without their lucky charms
分别以不计时测试的形式
were given a separate, untimed test
用8个字母组成尽可能多的单词
to make as many anagrams as they could from 8 letters.
进行测试之前 每个参与者都被问到
Before the challenge, each participant was asked
他们要找到多少单词才会放弃
what percentage of all possible solutions they wanted to find before they gave up.
研究团队发现 被允许保留幸运物的人
The team found that those allowed to keep their lucky charms
为自己定了更高的目标
set higher goals for themselves
还会更努力地去组成更多的单词
and worked harder to identify more words,
所花时间也比别人多了超过5分钟
devoting more than 5 extra minutes to the task.
这说明
This suggests that,
由于相信幸运物能让他们表现得好
because they believed their lucky charms would help them do well,
学生目标会更高 更愿意努力
the students were more ambitious and willing to put in more effort.
其实 这些都只不过是自我实现的预言
Really, it’s all just self-fulfilling prophecy.
如果你认为你的幸运《星球大战》玩偶会让你考到高分
If you think your lucky Star Wars action figure will help you ace a test,
你准备测验的动力可能就会更强
you’ll probably be more motivated to study for it,
就算你没意识到也一样
even if you don’t realize it.
这才是让你考到 A 的关键
And that is what will get you an A,
不是你裤袋中的达斯·维达
not the Darth Vader in your… pants.
不过 这类正面思维还真的很有效
Still, this kind of positive thinking can be really powerful,
而且不是只有幸运物才有这种效果
and it doesn’t just apply to lucky charms.
实际上 觉得自己只是很幸运的人
In fact, people who just think of themselves as lucky people
也能得到好处
also reap the rewards.
在一项针对200名大学生的调查中
In a survey of about 200 college students,
那些表示
those who agreed with statements like
“我经常感觉我今天走运了”
“I often feel like it is my lucky day”,
或者“运气总是光顾我”的人
or “Luck works in my favor,”
更可能具备很强的坚持能力和动力
were more likely to have high levels of what psychologists call
心理学家把这种感觉称作“成就动机”
“achievement motivation” – a sense of persistence and drive –
认为运气只是转瞬即逝的人则与之相反
compared to those who believed luck was only fleeting.
当你更坚持 更有动力时
And more persistence and drive
你在考试 作业和工作上的表现
probably means you‘ll ultimately do better when it comes
最终都会变得更好
to exams, homework, or your job.
一位名叫理查德·怀斯曼的心理学家
One psychologist, Richard Wiseman,
研究运气心理学有超过十年
who spent over a decade studying the psychology of luck,
他发现 只要对意外机会保持开放态度
has found that people make their own luck
人们就会为自己带来运气
by being more open to unexpected opportunities.
在一项实验中
In one experiment,
他招募了一些自认为幸运或者不幸运的人
he recruited people who considered themselves lucky or unlucky,
然后让他们在最短的时间内
and then tasked them with counting the number
数出一份报纸有几张照片
of photographs in a newspaper as quickly as they could.
自认为幸运的人完成任务的平均速度
The lucky people finished on average much faster
比“不幸运”的人还快
than their unlucky peers,
不是因为他们数得更快
but not because they counted faster.
而是因为他们发现报纸的版面上方
Instead, they spotted a message in big font
用大字打出了一句
on top of the page that said,
“别数了 这份报纸上有43张照片”
“Stop counting – there are 43 photographs in this newspaper.”
与此同时 “不幸运”的人太过专注于数照片
Meanwhile, the unlucky people were so focused on the photos,
错过了这个提示
they’d missed the clue.
怀斯曼认为 促成“好运”的一个因素
Wiseman argues that part of what makes someone ‘lucky’
是人们对新想法的开放性
is their openness to new ideas.
如果你能接受意想不到的机会
If you’re receptive to unexpected opportunities,
例如一宗生意 在地铁上交新朋友
like a business offer, or meeting someone new on the subway,
你就可以利用它 而非让它溜走
you can capitalize on them instead of letting them slip by.
另一项实验表明
Another experiment showed that
幸运的人往往更乐观
lucky people also tend to be more optimistic.
一旦发生悲剧或者不幸
If something tragic or unlucky happens,
他们更有可能看到一线希望
they’re more likely to see the silver lining,
这让他们保持积极
and that may allow them to stay positive
克服接下来的困难
and overcome challenges that come their way.
这其中有些品质或许源自人格
Some of these qualities may be personality-based.
怀斯曼对很多幸运和不幸运的人进行了人格测试
Wiseman evaluated many lucky and unlucky people with personality tests,
发现所谓的“幸运儿”
and found that so-called “lucky” people
通常比较外向 开放 比较不神经质
are usually more extroverted and open and less neurotic,
不紧张 不焦虑
or tense and anxious.
但他还是认为 只要改变期望
But still he thinks anyone can increase their luck
想尽办法尝试新事物
by changing their expectations
任何人都可以变得更幸运
and going out of their way to try new things.
因此 虽然没有任何证据表明运气存在
So, while there’s no evidence that luck exists,
但是相信运气存在
it doesn’t seem like anything bad will happen
似乎也不会让坏事发生
if you decide to believe in it.
其实 你还是一直在努力着
Really, you’re still doing all the work,
让好运真的来到
and making all that good luck come true,
但有时候 你会希望你的运气
but sometimes it’s nice to think it came from a lucky touch,
是你裤袋中的达斯·维达带来的
from the Darth Vader in your pants.
感谢您收看本期“心理科学秀”
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow Psych!
想观看更多内容 获取关于大脑的最新知识
If you want to keep getting more of them, keep up-to-date on brain stuff,
只需登录 youtube.com/scishowpsych 订阅我们
all our latest videos are going to be in your subscription box
我们的最新视频都会放入你的订阅栏中
if only you go to youtube.com/scishowpsych to subscribe.
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运气对成功的影响

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B93ueYrgLks

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