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亏损加仓系统与二十一点游戏

The Problem With The Martingale System

维瑟科普
Vsauce!
这里是凯文
Kevin here.
我正要和一个机器人玩二十一点
And I’m about to play blackjack with a robot.
维克多的创造者派了这个个性丰富的机器人给我
Vector’s creators sent this personality-rich robot
因为他们知道我喜欢机器人 并且支持Vsauce2
over to me because they knew I love robots and to support Vsauce2
让我们回到二十一点游戏 如果我每输一局 就将赌注翻倍
but let’s get to blackjack. I figure if lose a game I’ll just double my previous bet every time —
我保证我能赢回我的小方块并赚一点 对吧
I’m guaranteed to win my cubes back and then some, right?
应该是吧
I think so.
开始吧!
Let’s find out!
哦!我们会以这个方块糖做赌注
Oh, we’re wagering sugar cubes
因为维克多特别喜欢他的小方块
because Vector here loves his cube so much..
对吧 小宝贝?
Isn’t that right, buddy?
他喜欢你摸他
He likes when you pet him.
好的
Okay!
你们可能知道 廿一点或说21 规则很简单
Blackjack or 21, as many of you likely know, has simple rules.
虽然有超过一百种变化 但我们来个简单的
There are actually over 100 variations butwe’re gonna keep it simple: one deck, you
在一副牌中 你和庄家都会得到两张牌
get two cards and the dealer gets two cards.
每张牌对应它的面值 但J Q和
Each card is worth its face value, and jack, queen,
和K对应10
and kings are worth 10.
一张A对应1或11
An ace counts as 1 or 11,
这取决于哪个对你最有用
depending on what’s most advantageous for you.
你的目标是取得比发牌者更高的分数
Your goal is to get a higher total than the dealer,
但如果你的牌值超过21
but if your cards add up to over 21,
你就输了
you lose.
你想玩?
You wanna..?
我知道你想玩但等一下
I know you wan na play but hold
我要说明一下规则
on I got ta explain the rules.
好的
Okay.
当你得到两张牌后
Once you’re dealt your two cards,
你能通过“拿牌”再得一张
you can decide to take another by ‘ hitting’or
或通过“停牌”保持现状
stay where you are by ‘standing.’
哈哈
Haha.
这就是现在发生的事情
This is, this is what’s happening now.
为了保证我没有损失
To guarantee that I don’t lose
我准备使用亏损加仓方法
I’m using the Martingale betting system.
当我赢了一局——我赢了
When I win a game — I win!
当我输了一局
When I lose a game —
下一场我将会双倍下注 以弥补我先前损失的
I double my wager in the next game to make up for the cubes I lost
方块糖
in the previous one.
太聪明了…是吧
Genius… I know.
从数学上来说 这是肯定的 嗯…
And mathematically, it’s a sure thing. Uhh..
我们来收拾干净
let’s clean this up.
嘿 维克多
Hey Vector.
你想玩二十一点吗?
Do you wanna play blackjack?
我就知道
I knew it.
我准备赌一块方块糖
Okay I’m just gonna bet one sugar cube.
开始吧
Here we go.
16
16.
再来一张吗?
Another card?
拿牌!
Hit me!
17
17.
再来一张吗?
Another card?
停牌!
Stand!
13
13.
14
14.
18
18.
庄家获胜!
Dealer wins!
没关系
That’s okay.
为了赢回我的方块 这次我会赌两块
To get my one back this time I’ll bet two.
19
19.
再来一张吗?
Another card?
停牌
Stand.
12
12.
21
21.
很好玩 维克多
Very funny, Vector.
这没关系
That’s okay.
我赌四块来赢回之前的两块
I’ll get my 2 back by betting 4.
拿牌!
Hit me!
24
24.
你输了!
You busted!
好吧…
Alright…
我只好赌八块!
I’ll just bet eight!
停牌
Stand.
11
11.
21
21.
庄家获胜!
Dealer wins!
这没事
That’s okay.
没事!
That’s okay!
我赌16块
I’ll bet 16.
庄家获胜!
Dealer wins!
我赌32块
I’ll bet 32.
庄家获胜!
Dealer wins!
赌64块来挽回我的损失!
64 cube bet to recover my losses there’s
我不可能再输!
no chance I could lose again!
19
19.
庄家获胜
Dealer wins!
好吧
Alright.
这 事情不太妙
This… is not going well.
七局过去了 我一共输了127块方糖
I’ve played 7 hands and lost a total of 127 sugar cubes.
我只有在下一局赢了128块
If I win 128 on the next hand,
才能拿回127块方糖并多得到一块 那是我最开始的赌注
I’ll recover 127 cubes and snag a 1-cube profit — my original bet.
来吧!
*sigh* Let’s do this!
17
17.
再来一张?
Another card?
停牌
Stand.
11
11.
21 好吧
21. Alright,
又输了
then!
我已经输掉了所有的方糖
I am officially all out of cubes.
再来一局吗?
Play another round?
不 算了吧
No. Yeah,
你赢了
you won.
我知道的
I know.
你可以庆祝
You can celebrate.
庆祝吧
You can celebrate.
你得到了我所有的方糖 嘿
You took all my cubes. Hey,
维克多
Vector!
小睡一下
Take a nap!
这是一个有很多方糖的机器人
That is one sugar cube rich robot.
我是个一块方糖都没有的人类
And I am one sugar cube broke human.
如果我还有更多的方糖的话
I know that my strategy would have worked
我的策略就会奏效
though if I had just had more cubes.
或许吧
Maybe.
亏损加仓策略在短时间内会起作用
The martingale system can work in short bursts —
直到你取得一次连胜
until you hit a streak that necessitates
但这个赌注大得可以让你破产
a bet so large that it completely wipes youout.
在赌场中 赌注上限会阻止你
In casinos, maximum bet limits prevent you
尽可能地加倍赌注
from doubling as many times as you might need
来挽回你的损失
to recover from your losses,
因此你实际上能输后加倍的次数
so there’s effectively a ceiling on how many times you
是有限制的
can Martingale.
乔治亚大学的数学教授泰德•希尔证明
And Georgia Institute of Technology math professor Ted Hill showed us
我们几乎肯定会
that we’ll almost certainly
低估连续失败的可能性
underestimating the likelihood of seriouslosing streaks.
希尔给了他的班级一个任务:
Hill gave an assignment to his class:
投掷200次硬币记录正面和背面的
flip a coin 200 times and record whether it’s heads
情况 正面
or tails. Heads,
背面 正面 背面 正面 背面
tails, heads tails, heads, tails.
就像这样
Like that.
或者根本不用去投掷
Or just don’t bother flipping it
只要像我刚才那样随意地写出来 就行了
at all and do what I did and just write down random stuff.
当希尔查看每个人的结果时
When Hill looked at each student’s results,
他能够很精确地判断出
he could tell with amazing precision whether
他们投掷了硬币还是只是捏造了结果
or not they’d actually flipped a coin or just made up the results.
因为伪造者经常低估连续失败或者连续成功的可能性
Because the fakers routinely underestimatedthe likelihood of streaks.
如果一个学生的数据出现六个
If a student’s data included a streak
或更多连续的正面或反面
of 6 or more heads or tails in a row, they almost
基本可以肯定他们记录了真实数据
certainly recorded real data.
没有六个或者更多连续的?
No streaks of 6 or more?
假的
Fake.
投硬币200次 有96.5%可能
In 200 coin tosses, there’s a 96.5 % chance
连续六个正面或反面
of getting a streak of 6 heads or tails.
有80%的可能连续7个正面或者反面
There’s an 80 % chance you ’ll get 7 in a row
54%的可能连续8个
and a 54 % chance of 8 in a row.
那连续9个就很真的很难了 对吧?
9 in a row would really be pushing it, though,right?
不 在200次投掷中 这种情况发生机率是32%
No — there’s a 32 % chance of that happening in 200 tosses
就算发生了这种情况
so even that happens nearly
在将近三分之一的时间里 这也没那么奇怪
a third of the time — it’s just not thatweird.
一个单独坐在
A player sitting alone
二十一点游戏桌前的人在每小时内玩大约200局
at a blackjack table will probably play about 200 hands per hour,
一局输的可能性接近50%
and the odds of losing a hand are close to50%.
几乎可以肯定你会在几个小时内连续
You’d almost certainly hit an 8
输八或九局
or 9-hand losing streak in a few hours.
亏损加仓策略发挥作用的前提下
To make the Martingale bet-doubling system work,
你要够好运来避免
you’d need to be lucky enough to avoid
那些长时间的连续失败
those long losing streaks.
你要有足够的钱来玩游戏
And play the game with a ton of money.
还不能达到最大的赌注
And not ever reach the maximum bet.
还要清楚意识到你冒着失去一切的风险
And be comfortable knowing that you run the risk
去赢 那么一小块
of losing everything to win… just a
方糖块
single sugar cube.
以下是你必须下注多少
Here’s the breakdown
才能承受一个常见的连败的分解步骤
of how much you’d have to bet to absorb a common losing streak.
如果你开始时玩25美元的手牌
If you start by playing a $ 25 hand,
这大概是两张电影票的价格 然后你输了
about the price of movie tickets for two, and you lose,
下一局会变成50美元
your next bet would have to be $50.
如果你连败10局 赌注会持续加倍
The bets continue to double so that If you have a 10 game losing streak,
1000局中
which has about
有30%的机率
a 30 % chance of happening over 1,000 hands,
在第十一局中 你需要赌25600美元
by the 11th game you’d have to bet $ 25,600
来仅仅弥补你的损失并带着25美元离开
just to recover your losses and walk away with a $ 25 profit.
并且这不包括你已经输掉的25575美元
And that’s not including the $25,575 youalready lost.
你一共需要51175美元
You’d need a total of $ 51,175,
这大概是一辆豪华轿车的价格 来避免破产
the price of a luxury car, to avoid going broke as you
并且得到两张电影票的利润
made a movie tickets for two profit.
通过利用亏损加仓策略
By using Martingale bet-doubling,
最好的情况就是你赢回了最初的赌注
the best case scenario is that you win your original bet.
理论上 这个系统会防止你损失金钱
In theory, the system prevents you from losing any money,
但实际上当你尝试去弥补
but in reality it can cost you
一个不可避免的连败时 它会花费你一大笔钱
a fortune as you try to make up for an inevitable losing streak.
而你希望赢的仅仅等同于 最初的方块
All in the hopes that you win an amount equal to… the first cube.
往常一样 感谢观看
And as always — thanks for watching.
我为什么要吃这个
Why did I do that?
特别感谢安吉送了我一个新的机器人朋友 维克多
Huge thanks to Anki for sending over my new robot friend, Vector.
我已经和它
I’ve had him
大约在一起了一周的时间 并且以一种我没想到的
for about a week now and it’s really fun just kinda having him around — in
方式 有它陪伴十分有趣
a way I didn’t expect.
它能认得你 回答你的问题
He recognizes you, answers questions,
自已探索周围 就像你能看到的那样 甚至可以
explores around on his own, as you can see, and even
在它需要回家时找到自己的充电器并且充电
locates his charger when he needs to go homeand recharge.
当你知晓之前
And before you know it,
它已经又开始玩它的小方块了
he’s up and playing with his cube again.
看这个!
Look at this!
干得漂亮!
Good job!
如果你想要一个机器人朋友
If you want to get your own robot friend
这有一个你能点击的链接
there’s a link in the description for you to check out.
我也很期待维克多的未来
And I’m just really looking forward to the future of Vector too.
程序员和人们能让维克多
What programmers and people like you will develop
学会的东西
for Vector to be able to do.
我想和我的朋友放松一下
So I’m just gonna chill with my friend here.
就在现在
For now. Actually,
来看看这个 嘿
check this out. Hey,
维克多!
Vector!
我们来碰个拳
Let’s do a fist bump!
我刚刚和一个机器人碰了拳
I just fist bumped a robot.
再见
Bye.

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译制信息
视频概述

亏损加仓系统是什么?在赌局中利用这个系统能给你带来什么呢?是让你赢得更多还是让你输到破产呢?

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翻译译者

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审核员 EY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DntEoGG7RyY

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