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囚徒困境

The Prisoner's Dilemma

Let’s say Mr. Blue, and Ms. Red have each been arrested for some minor crime.
假设由于一些轻微的罪行 蓝先生和红女士被逮捕了
The police think they committed a more serious crime
警察认为他们犯了更严重的罪行
but they don’t have enough evidence to convict them.
但没有足够的证据来判定他们有罪
They need a confession.
警察需要一份供状
They take them and put them in separate rooms so they can’t talk
警察把他们带去关在分开的房间 这样他们就无法对话
and play a little game.
然后警察玩了个小把戏
To try to force a confession the police give them each a choice.
为了强迫他们认罪 警察给他们每人一个选择
Admit your partner committed the crime, and you will go free.
供出你的伙伴犯了大罪 你将获得自由
We’ll pardon you for the minor crime
你的小罪行将被赦免
but your partner will have to spend 3 years in prison.
但你的同伴必须坐牢3年
If you stay silent and your partner lets us know
如果你保持沉默 但你的伙伴供出
that you were the one who really did it
你是真正的罪犯
then you’re going to have to go away for 3 years.
那么你将不得不坐3年牢
They know that the police don’t have any evidence
他们知道警察没有任何证据
and if they both stay silent
如果他们都保持沉默
then they will only go to prison for 1 year each
那么他们将因轻微罪行
for the minor crime.
而仅分别被判入狱一年
If they both betray each other
如果他们都背叛了对方
then they’ll both go to prison for 2 years each.
那么他们每人将要坐2年牢
OK, each partner can do 1 of 2 things.
那么好 每个同伴可以二选一
Stay Silent, or Betray.
保持沉默 或者出卖对方
Staying silent would be cooperating and betraying would be defecting.
保持沉默就是合作 而出卖就是叛变
If they both stay silent, they each spend a year in prison.
如果他们都保持沉默 那么每人要坐1年牢
If one betrays and the other stays silent,
如果一个背叛一个沉默
then the betrayer goes free and the silent spends 3 years in prison.
那么背叛者得到自由 而沉默者要坐3年牢
If they both betray then it’s 2 years each.
如果他们都背叛了对方 那每人判2年
So what are they going to do?
那么他们将会怎么做呢
Well they should cooperate.
好吧 他们应该合作
That’s the best option for the group,
如果把坐牢总年数相加的话
if we add the total number of years in prison.
合作是对团体最好的选择
But let’s take it from Red’s perspective.
但让我们从红女士的立场来看
If she thinks blue is going to stay silent,
如果她认为蓝先生会沉默
then she should betray so she can go free.
那么她就应该选择背叛以获得自由
Going free is better than a year in prison.
自由比坐一年牢要好
If she thinks he’s going to betray her then she should definitely betray,
如果她认为他会背叛她 那么她显然也该背叛
2 years in jail is better than 3 and being made a fool of.
坐2年牢比坐3年牢且被愚弄好
Blue is in the exact same situation and will think the exact same thing,
蓝先生的情况完全相同 他也会这么想
he should betray if she stays silent
如果她保持沉默那么他应该背叛
and he should betray if she betrays.
如果她背叛那么他也该背叛
They should have both cooperated, but from an individual stand point
他们两人本应该合作 但从个人立场来看
they noticed they could always gain by defecting.
他们发现他们总能从背叛中受益
If they have no control over what the other person is going to do.
如果他们无法控制另一个人将要做什么
So they’ll both defect to try to better their own situation.
那么他们都将背叛以试着让自己的处境更好
But come away not only hurting the group, but themselves.
但背叛伤害的不仅是团体 也伤害他们自己
Individually they’re worse off than if they both cooperated.
单独来看 这比如果他们合作的结果差得多
This situation is pretty made up, but it has some real world analogues.
这个情境几乎是编的 但现实世界中有类似的情形
A common example is with marketing.
一个常见的例子是市场营销
Let’s say 2 cigarette companies, Red Strikes, and Smooth blue,
假设有2家烟草公司Red Strikes和Smooth Blue
are deciding how much money they should spend on advertising.
正在决定该花费多少钱在广告上
Since the product they each make is identical to one another,
由于他们生产的产品是相似的
advertising has a huge impact on sales.
广告对销售有重要影响
For simplicity let’s say their choices are:to advertise a bunch,
为简单起见 假设他们的选择有 投大量广告
or not advertise at all.
或根本不打广告
And there’s just 100 people in this society and they all smoke.
社会只有100个人 他们都抽烟
If both don’t advertise, then just by random chance picking cigarette boxes,
如果双方都不打广告 那么只是随机选择烟盒
50 people buy Red Strikes and 50 people buy Smooth blue.
50人买Red Strikes 50人买Smooth Blue
At $2 a pack they each make $100.
2美元一包 他们各赚100美元
Let’s say advertising costs $30.
假如打广告花费30美元
If one person advertises and the other does not,
如果一方打广告另一方不打
then 80 people will buy the cigarettes from the ads
那么80人将会买打广告那家公司的烟
and 20 people buy the other ones.
20人买另一家的烟
The advertiser makes $160
打广告的一方赚了160美元
minus $30 for ads, and comes away with $130.
减去广告费30美元 一共赚130美元
The non advertiser didn’t spend money, but only made $40.
没打广告的一方没有花钱 但仅赚40美元
If they both advertise,
若双方都打广告
again half will buy Red Strikes, and half will buy Smooth blue.
再次地 一半人将买Red Strikes 一半人买Smooth Blue
But since they both spent $30 on advertising,
但因为他们都花了30美元在广告上
they only come away with only $70 each.
所以他们各自只赚了70美元
Same deal, both people cooperating and not advertising is the most preferable situation,
同样 全部人合作 不打广告是最好的情况
but both company can see that advertising will always make them more money.
但所有公司都看到打广告总能让他们赚更多钱
But unlike the prisoner’s in jail,
但与监狱的囚徒不同
these companies can talk and try to influence each other.
这些公司可以交谈并尝试互相影响
From here Blue would be better off if Red didn’t advertise.
从这里看 如果红方不打广告 蓝方收益更好
Red wouldn’t go for that because that would be worse for them.
红方不会这么做 因为这结果对他们更糟
Blue could try to convince Red that they would both not advertise,
蓝方可能会试着使红方相信 他们都不会打广告
the only other situation where they’re both better off.
这是对彼此都有利的唯一情况
But without any real obligation to each other,
但由于对彼此没有任何真实义务
there’s nothing that stopping them from trying to advertise
没什么能阻止他们 试着打广告
to gain more of the market anyway.
来赢得更大的市场
If you think your opponent’s going to not advertise, then you’re better off advertising.
如果你认为对手不会去打广告 那你打广告更有利
Although we’re still making assumptions to make this situation work too.
尽管为使这模型也生效 我们仍然在做假设
With this model we’re assuming they only play once.
在这个模型中 假设他们只玩一次
The game changes when the players have a chance to build a relationship
游戏将会发生改变 当玩家有机会建立关系
and work together to get more gains over time, or
且共同努力以随时间推移获益更多
punish each other by not cooperating.
或通过不合作而互相惩罚时
Also to make the model work we have to make up rules for the players.
同样为使模型生效 我们必须给玩家制定规则
Assume they’re basically computer programs with predictable actions.
假设他们是可预测行为的计算机程序
These guys are creepier than they were in my head.
这些家伙比我脑海里的更怪异
They were supposed to be cute.
他们应该很可爱
For the prisoner’s dilemma and other similar models,
对于囚徒困境和其他类似的模型
we’re assuming they are Rational Agents.
假设他们是理性的行为人
A rational agent is a hypothetical person
一个理性的行为人是个假设的人
that will always pick the option
他们总是选择
that they predict will work out best for them.
他们认为对其最有利的选择
They’re not really thinking about the gains of someone else.
他们不会真正考虑其他人的收益
Seems selfish but it is something that real people will generally do too.
看起来很自私 但这是真实的人也常做的事
People always want what’s best for themselves
人们总想要对他们最有利的东西
and we don’t like to made a fool of.
而且我们不喜欢被愚弄
But if you put real people in the prisoner’s dilemma,
但如果你把真实的人放在囚徒困境里
people don’t always defect like the model predicts.
人们并不总是像模型预测的那样会叛变
In one study, 40 people playing prisoner’s dilemma games,
一项研究中40人玩了囚徒困境游戏
through a computer, without ever meeting or talking,
游戏通过电脑进行 他们没见过面或说过话
only playing each opponent once, these are one off games.
每个对手间只玩一次 这是个一次性的游戏
Using a payoff matrix that looks like this,
使用这样的收益矩阵
cooperated an averaged 22% of the time.
他们合作平均22%的时间
These people never cooperated.
这些人从不合作
These are people always cooperated.
这些人总是合作
These guys cooperated on half of their games
这些人在一半的游戏中合作
and everyone else is in between.
其他人在两者间
This is a lot of cooperation coming from a model that predicts no cooperation.
这是来自预期没有合作模型的大量合作
The largest group did act like rational agents,
最大组的确表现得像理性行为人
but most people tried to cooperate at least once.
但很多人至少尝试过合作一次
It’s because there’s more to real people.
因为真实的人有更多的考虑
We are social creatures and even in a one off scenario
我们是群居生物 甚至于
with no guarantees and obligations and no chance to build a relationship,
在没有保证 没有义务 没有机会建立关系的 一次性情境中
we’re still thinking about how the group might decide.
我们仍然思考的是群体将怎样做决定
We’re actually thinking from the perspective of the group,
我们实际上是从团体角度来思考
and making an optimistic decision.
并做出一个乐观的决定
Cooperating an average of 20% of the time might not seem very optimistic,
平均20%的时间合作看来似乎不太乐观
but remember this is with absolutely no communication or obligations.
但记住这是绝对没有交流或义务下的情形
Anyways, that’s not really the point.
不管怎么样 这不是重点
Using the rational agent is still useful.
使用理性的行为人仍然是有效的
The model is just trying to point out the dilemma of certain situation
这个模型只是试着指出特定情境下的困境
where people actually hurting themselves when counter-intuitively,
当人们反直觉地伤害自己时
they’re only thinking about themselves…
他们只考虑到了自己
and that’s why we’re modelling using the cold robotic sociopaths.
这就是为什么我们用冷酷的机器人的 反社会模式建模的原因

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视频概述

视频介绍了什么是囚徒困境,并举了现实中的“囚徒困境”例子——市场营销。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

一条咸yu

审核员

审核员 EM

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Lo2fgxWHw

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