一年一度
一千位杰出人物相聚于加利福尼亚州蒙特利
交换彼此的无价之宝
那就是他们的思想
首次与您分享在那儿发生的精彩故事
I’m going to talk to you about some stuff that’s in this book of mine
我想与你谈谈我这本书里的一些内容
that I hope will resonate with other things you’ve already heard,
希望能和你们的一些见闻形成共鸣
and I’ll try to make some connections myself,
如果你忘了的话 我会试着帮你
in case you missed them.
把它们联系起来
But I want to start with what I call the “official dogma.”
我想从“公认的信条”这里讲起
The official dogma of what?
什么样的公认信条？
The official dogma of all Western industrial societies.
整个西方工业社会所公认的信条
And the official dogma runs like this:
这个公认信条是这么说的：
if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,
如果我们想让公民的福利最大化
the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.
方法就是让个人自由最大化
The reason for this
这么做
is both that freedom is in and of itself good,
不仅因为自由本身就很美好
valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human.
价值珍贵 为人所需
And because if people have freedom,
还因为人们假如有了自由
then each of us can act on our own
每个人就可以自主行事
to do the things that will maximize our welfare,
使自己的福利最大化
and no one has to decide on our behalf.
而无需别人来决定我们的利益
The way to maximize freedom
让自由最大化的方式
is to maximize choice.
就是让选择最大化
The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,
人们的选择越多 则拥有的自由越多
and the more freedom they have,the more welfare they have.
拥有的自由越多 则获得的福利越多
This, I think, is so
我觉得 这一观念就像
deeply embedded in the water supply
掺进了我们的自来水中那么根深蒂固
that it wouldn’t occur to anyone to question it.
以至于没有人会对此产生疑问
And it’s also deeply embedded in our lives.
同时它也深植于我们的生活中
I’ll give you some examples
我来举几个
of what modern progress has made possible for us.
现代化进程改变我们生活的例子
This is my supermarket.
这是我家附近的超市
Not such a big one.
不算很大
I want to say just a word about salad dressing.
这里我只说一说沙拉酱
175 salad dressings in my supermarket, if you don’t count
这家超市有175种沙拉酱 这还没算上
the 10 extra-virgin olive oils and 12 balsamic vinegars
10种特级初榨橄榄油和12种香醋
you could buy to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,
你可以买来自己调制很多种沙拉酱
in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.
万一超市在售的175种都不合你口味的话
So this is what the supermarket is like.
这就是超市的样子
And then you go to the consumer electronics store
然后你来到一家家用电器店
to set up a stereo system —
装配一套立体音响系统
speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier —
音响 CD机 磁带机 调谐器 扩音器
and in this one single consumer electronics store,
就在这家唯一的家用电器店
–there are that many stereo systems.
就有这么多种立体音响系统
We can construct six-and-a-half-million different stereo systems
我们用一家店所售卖的组件就能装配出
out of the components that are on offer in one store.
650万种不同的立体音响系统
You’ve got to admit that’s a lot of choice.
你得承认 选择简直太多了
In other domains — the world of communications.
在其他领域 如通讯行业
There was a time, when I was a boy,
在我童年的那段时间
when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,
只要你是贝尔公司的用户 就能获得
as long as it came from Ma Bell.
你想要的任何一种电话服务
You rented your phone. You didn’t buy it.
电话是租赁的 不需要购买
One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.
由此导致的一个结果是 电话从来不坏
And those days are gone.
往日一去不复返了
We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,
如今电话的种类数不胜数
especially in the world of cell phones.
特别是手机方面
These are cell phones of the future.
这是未来的手机
My favorite is the middle one —
我最喜欢的是中间这一款
the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer,
带有MP3播放器 鼻毛修剪器
and crème brûlée torch. And if…
和制作焦糖布丁用的喷枪
[Laughter]
[笑声]
if by some chance you haven’t seen that in your store yet,you can
如果你还没有在家附近的超市见到的话
rest assured that one day soon, you will.
大可放心 总有一天会的
And what this does is it leads people to walk into their stores asking this question.
这导致人们走入附近的商店询问这个问题
And do you know what the answer to this question now is?
你知道这个问题现在的答案吗？
The answer is “no.”
答案是“没有”
It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn’t do too much.
你不可能买到一部功能不太复杂的手机
So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant
在生活中比买东西更重要的
than buying things,
其他方面
the same explosion of choice is true.
同样的“选择大爆炸”依然存在
Health care.
医疗保健领域
It is no longer the case in the United States
在美国 事情不再是这样的：
that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.
你去看病 医生告诉你治疗方案
Instead, you go to the doctor,and the doctor tells you,
如今相反 你去看病 医生会说
“Well, we could do A, or we could do B.
“我们有治疗方案A和方案B
A has these benefits, and these risks.
方案A有这些好处及那些风险
B has these benefits, and these risks.
方案B有这些好处及那些风险
What do you want to do?”
你想怎么治？”
And you say, “Doc, what should I do?”
你又问：“大夫，我该选哪个？”
And the doc says, “A has these benefits and risks,
医生又说：“A有这般好处及风险
and B has these benefits and risks.What do you want to do?”
B有那般好处及风险 你想怎么治？
And you say,
你再问：
“If you were me, Doc, what would you do?”
“大夫 如果你是我 你会选哪个？”
And the doc says, “But I’m not you.”
医生会说：“但我不是你”
And the result is — we call it “patient autonomy”,
结果就产生了所谓的“患者自主权”
which makes it sound like a good thing,
听起来还挺不错的
but it really is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility for decision-making
但其实质是 做决定的负担和责任
from somebody who knows something –namely, the doctor —
从内行的人身上 也就是医生
to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly
转移到了外行且
sick and thus not in the best shape to be making decisions —
明显身体欠佳 不宜做决定的人身上
namely, the patient.
也就是患者
There’s enormous marketing of prescription drugs
如今处方药的广告营销铺天盖地
to people like you and me,
面向你我这样的人
which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,
如果你想一想 这根本毫无意义
since we can’t buy them.
因为处方药不能直接购买
Why do they market to us if we can’t buy them?
那为什么还要向我们营销？
The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning
答案是药厂希望我们在看完广告的次日早上
and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.
致电医生要求调整药方
Something as dramatic as our identity
如今 像我们的身份这样特征显著的东西
is now become a matter of choice,
也成了可选择的对象
as this slide is meant to indicate.
正如这张幻灯片所指出的
We get to…we don’t inherit an identity; we get to invent it.
我们不再继承某一身份 我们创造身份
And we get to reinvent ourselves as often as we like.
我们可以随时凭喜好重塑自我
And that means that every day, when you wake up in the morning, you have to decide
这意味着 每天清晨醒来 你都要决定
what kind of person you want to be.
今天你想做个什么样的人
With respect to marriage and family:
关于婚姻家庭方面
there was a time when the default assumption
过去 几乎所有人都约定俗成
that almost everyone had is that you got married as soon as you could,
到了年龄就要结婚
and then you started having kids as soon as you could.
然后尽快生儿育女
The only real choice was who,
唯一存在的选择是与谁结婚
not when, and not what you did after.
而非时候时候结婚 或者结婚后的计划
Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.
现如今 每件事情都可以争取到机会
I teach wonderfully intelligent students,
我有一群才智过人的学生
and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.
我给他们布置的作业比过去少了20%
And it’s not because they’re less smart,
这并非因为他们不够聪明
and it’s not because they’re less diligent.
也非他们不够勤奋
It’s because they are preoccupied,
而是因为他们别有心事
asking themselves, “Should I get married or not?
想着“我应不应该结婚？
Should I get married now?
我应该现在就结婚
Should I get married later?
还是再等等？
Should I have kids first, or a career first?”
我应该先要孩子 还是先有事业？”
All of these are consuming questions.
所有这些问题都很费脑筋
And they’re gonna answer these questions,
他们要解答这些问题
whether or not, it means not doing all the work I assign
犹豫徘徊 这意味着写不完作业
and not getting a good grade in my courses.
拿不了课程高分
And indeed they should.These are important questions to answer.
确实他们应该考虑 这些问题很重要
Work —
关于工作
we are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,
正如Carl曾经指出的
with the technology that enables us to work
拥有科技的我们很幸运 它让我们
every minute of every day
每一天 每一分钟
from any place on the planet —
在地球上任何一个角落都能工作
except the Randolph Hotel.
除了鲁道夫酒店
[Laughter and Applause]
[笑声与掌声]
There is one corner,
不过有一个角落
by the way, that I’m not going to tell anybody about,
——但我不会告诉任何人
where the WiFi actually works.
可以连到WiFi
I’m not telling you about it because I want to use it.
我不告诉你们是因为我还想用
So what this means,
这意味着什么呢？
this incredible freedom of choice we have with respect to work,
在工作方面 我们拥有惊人的选择自由
is that we have to make a decision, again and again and again,
这让我们必须一而再再而三地在
about whether we should or shouldn’t be working.
该工作还是该休息的问题上做决定
We can go to watch our kid play soccer,
我们可以去看孩子踢足球
and we have our cell phone on one hip,
于此同时 一只裤袋里装手机
and our Blackberry on our other hip,
另一只装黑莓手机
and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.
或许大腿上还放着笔记本电脑
And even if they’re all shut off,
即使它们都关机了
every minute that we’re watching our kid mutilate the soccer game,
在观看孩子们足球比赛的全程中
we are also asking ourselves,”Should I answer this
我们不停自问 “我是不是该
cell phone call? Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter? “
接这通电话？回这封邮件？起草这封信？”
And even if the answer to the question is “no,”
即使答案是“不必”
it’s certainly going to make the experience of your kid’s
也无疑会使这次足球赛的观看体验
soccer game very different than it would’ve been.
比以往大打折扣
So everywhere we look,
因此 我们目之所及
big things and small things,
无论大事小情
material things and lifestyle things,
物质享受还是生活方式
life is a matter of choice.
生活在于选择
And the world we used to live in looked like this.
我们过去生活的世界就像这样
That is to say, there were some choices,
也就是说 过去有些事情可以选择
but not everything was a matter of choice.
但不是每件事情都可以选择
And the world we now live in looks like this.
而如今我们生活的世界就像这样
And the question is,
问题就是
is this good news, or bad news?
这是好消息还是坏消息？
And the answer is, “yes.”
答案是 “没错”
[Laughter]
[笑声]
We all know what’s good about it,
我们都知道关于选择好的一面
so I’m going to talk about what’s bad about it.
我来谈谈关于其坏的一面
All of this choice has two effects,
所有的选择对人们都有两种影响
two negative effects on people.
两种负面影响
One effect, paradoxically,
矛盾的是 一方面
is that it produces paralysis, rather than liberation.
选择引起了思维瘫痪 而非自由
With so many options to choose from,
我们有如此之多的选择
people find it very difficult to choose at all.
以至于我们根本难以抉择
I’ll give you one very dramatic example of this:
在这里我给你一个生动的例子
a study that was done
一项关于
of investments in voluntary retirement plans.
投资于自愿退休计划的研究
A colleague of mine got access to
我的一个同事从
investment records from Vanguard,the gigantic mutual-fund company
庞大的共同基金公司Vanguard获取了
of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.
大约100万雇员和2000个工作场所的投资记录
And what she found is that for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,
她发现 雇主每提供10个共同基金
rate of participation went down two percent.
参与率就会下降2%
You offer 50 funds — 10 percent fewer employees participate
提供50种基金的话 相比于仅提供5种
than if you only offer 5.
参与雇员将减少10%
Why?
为什么？
Because with 50 funds to choose from, it’s so damn hard to decide which
原因是 从50种可选基金中挑选一支
fund to choose, that you’ll just put it off until tomorrow.
实在太难了 于是只好拖到明天再说
And then tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
明日复明日
and of course tomorrow never comes.
明日从未到来
Understand that not only does this mean
要知道这不仅意味着

that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire
人们退休后只能吃狗粮度日
because they don’t have enough money put away,
因为他们没有足够的积蓄
it also means that making the decision is so hard
同时意味着难以做决定导致
that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.
他们错过了从雇主处得到相应数额的可观的补贴
By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year
未参加基金使他们每年从“乐于”补贴出资的
from the employer, who would happily match their contribution.
雇主处错过多达5000美元的金钱
So paralysis
思维瘫痪
is a consequence of having too many choices.
是选择过多的结果
And I think it makes the world look like this.
我认为太多选择使世界看起来像这样
[Laughter]
[笑声]
You really want to get the decision right
如果这个决定将直到永远
if it’s for all eternity, right?
你绝对不想选错 对吗？
You don’t want to pick the wrong mutual fund, or the wrong salad dressing.
你不想选择错误的共同基金或错误的沙拉酱
So that’s one effect. The second effect
这是其中一种影响 第二种影响是
is that even if we manage
即便我们设法
to overcome the paralysis and make a choice,
克服了思维瘫痪 做出了选择
we end up
结果
less satisfied with the result of the choice
还不如在选择有限的情况下
than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.
对结果感到满意
And there are several reasons for this.
原因有这么几个
One of them is
其中之一是
that with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,
有如此之多的沙拉酱可供选择
if you buy one, and it’s not perfect — and you know what salad dressing is
假如你相中一款却失望了——你知道是哪一款
— it’s easy to imagine that you could have made a different choice that would have been better.
不难想象 你本可以选择或许更好的另一个
And what happens is this imagined alternative
结果是 这个想象中的替代选项
induces you to regret the decision you made,
促使你对已做的决定感到后悔
and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get out of the decision you made,
而这种后悔消减了先前决定带来的满足感
even if it was a good decision.
即使它是个很棒的决定
The more options there are, the easier it is to regret
选择越多 就越容易对所做的选择中
anything at all that is disappointing about the option that you chose.
令你失望的方方面面感到后悔
Second, what economists call “opportunity costs.”
第二个原因是经济学家所称的“机会成本”
Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning of talking about how…
今早Dan Gilbert强调
how much…the way in which we value things depends on what we compare them to.
讨论事物有多少价值 取决于我们所选的参照物
Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,
当我们有诸多可考虑的选项时
it is easy to imagine
不难想象
the attractive features of alternatives that you reject
你拒绝掉的选择所拥有的醉人特征
that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you’ve chosen.
使你对现有决定没那么满意
Here’s an example.
这有一个例子
For those of you who aren’t New Yorkers, I apologize.
对于你们中不是纽约人的观众 我很抱歉
But here’s what you’re supposed to be thinking.
这是你们应该会有的想法
Here’s this couple on the Hamptons.
这是一对在汉普顿斯度假的夫妇
Very expensive real estate. Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day.
这儿有昂贵的地产 漂亮的沙滩 美好的天气
They have it all to themselves.What could be better?
这些全都是他们的 还能更棒吗？
“Well, damn it,”this guy is thinking,”It’s August.
这个家伙却在想“真讨厌
Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.
如今是八月份 我的曼哈顿邻居都不在家
I could be parking right in front of my building.”
我本可以把车停在自己房子前头”
And he spends two weeks
于是整整两周时间
nagged by the idea that he is missing the opportunity,
错失了占据那个超棒停车位的机会
day after day, to have a great parking space.
这个想法让他日夜烦恼不已
Opportunity costs
机会成本
subtract from the satisfaction we get out of what we choose,
消减了我们从已做的选择中获得的满足感
even when what we choose is terrific.
即使我们的选择很不错
And the more options there are to consider,
可考虑的选项越多
the more attractive features of these options are going to be
这些选项所具有的醉人特征
reflected by us as opportunity costs.
就越会被我们当做机会成本
Here’s another example.
这是另一个例子
[Laughter]
[笑声]
Now this cartoon makes a lot of points.
这幅漫画提出了很多观点
It makes points about living in the moment
一个观点是活在当下
as well and probably about doing things slowly.
或许也有做事不急
But one point it makes is that whenever you’re choosing one thing,
但还有一个观点是 每当你选择了一件事
you’re choosing not to do other things
你就放弃了其他那些
and those other things may have lots of attractive features
可能具有许多醉人特征的事情
and it’s gonna make what you’re doing less attractive.
这将使你对眼前之事兴味索然
Third:
第三个原因
escalation of expectations.
期望值上升
This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.
去买新牛仔裤时这一点冲击到了我
I wear jeans almost all the time.
我几乎一直都在穿牛仔裤
And there was a time when jeans came in one flavor,
以前 牛仔裤只有一种类型
and you bought them, and they fit like crap,
你买下它 穿起来相当糟糕
and they were incredibly uncomfortable,
极其难受
and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,
如果穿得够久 洗得够多
they started to feel OK.
它们会变舒服些
So I went to replace my jeans after years and years of wearing these old ones,
旧牛仔裤穿了很多年以后 我去买新的
and I said, “I want a pair of jeans. Here’s my size.”
于是我说“我要一条牛仔裤 这种尺寸的”
And the shopkeeper said,”Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?
店员接道“要修身款 休闲款还是宽松款？
You want button fly or zipper fly?
门襟用纽扣还是拉链？
You want stonewashed or acid-washed?
砂洗的还是酸洗的？
Do you want them distressed?
做旧的？
You want boot cut, you want tapered, blah blah.”
喇叭裤 锥形裤？等等等等”
On and on he went.My jaw dropped.
他喋喋不休 我下巴都惊掉了
And after I recovered, I said,
等我缓过来 我说
“I want the kind that used to be the only kind.”
“我想要过去那种独此一款的”
[Laughter]
[笑声]
He had no idea what that was,
他搞不懂那是什么
so I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,
因此我花了一小时试穿所有牛仔裤
and I walked out of the store–truth!–
说真的 我穿着一条
with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.
前所未有如此合身的牛仔裤走出了商店
I did better.
我买到了更好的
All this choice made it possible for me to do better.
所有这些选择令我有机会买到更好的
But –I felt worse.
然而 我感觉更糟了
Why?
为什么？
I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself.
我写了整整一本书 尝试跟自己解释这事
The reason is…
原因就是…
[Laughter]
[笑声]
The reason I felt worse is
我感觉更糟的原因是
that with all of these options available,
有了这些种种可做的选择
my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.
我对于一条牛仔裤的期望值提高了
I had very low, I had no particular expectations
过去牛仔裤只有一种类型时 我对它们
when they only came in one flavor.
没有什么特别的期待
When they came in 100 flavors, damn it, one of them should’ve been perfect.
当有了100种时 其中定有一种不完美
And what I got was good, but it wasn’t perfect.
我所买的是不错 但不够完美
And so I compared what I got to what I expected,
于是我就把已买的同期望中的作比较
and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.
已买的便相形见绌
Adding options to people’s lives
为人们的生活增添选择
can’t help but increase the expectations people have
不但无益反而抬高了人们对于
about how good those options will be.
这些选择能有多好的期望
And what that’s going to produce
其结果就是
is less satisfaction with results,
对结果的满意度下降
even when they’re good results.
即便是好的结果
Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.
在市场营销界 没人知道这一点
Because if they did,
因为假如他们知道的话
you wouldn’t all know what this was about.
你们就不会全都明白这幅漫画的寓意了
The truth is more like this.
真相更接近这个样子
[Laughter]
[笑声]
The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse
坏掉的东西总能变得更好 原因是
is that when everything was worse,
当东西坏了以后
it was actually possible for people to have experiences
实际上人们就能有机会体验
that were a pleasant surprise.
愉快的惊喜
Nowadays, the world we live in — we affluent, industrialized citizens,
如今 我们是富裕的 享受现代化的公民
with perfection the expectation —
拥有完美的期望 在我们的世界
the best you can ever hope for
你能怀有的最好的希望
is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.
就是东西如你所期待的那样好
You will never be pleasantly surprised because your expectations, my expectations,
你永远不会大喜过望 因为你我的期望
have gone through the roof.
已经高入云霄
The secret to happiness — this is what you all came for
幸福的秘诀——这是你们此行的目的
–the secret to happiness is
幸福的秘诀就是
low expectations.
低期望值
[Laughter]
[笑声]
[Applause & Laughter]
[笑声与掌声]
I want to say —
我想说的是
just a little autobiographical moment —
关于我自己 只说一小会儿
that I actually am married to a wife,
事实上我已经结婚了
and she’s really quite wonderful.
妻子她很完美
I couldn’t have done better. I didn’t settle.
我找不到比她更好的了 没有凑合
But settling isn’t always such a bad thing.
不过 凑合并不总是坏事情
Finally –One consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans
最终 在独此一款牛仔裤可买的时候
when there is only one kind to buy
买到一条不合身的一个后果是
is that when you are dissatisfied, and you ask why,who’s responsible,
你感到不满并寻找原因和责任人
the answer is clear: the world is responsible.What could you do?
答案很明显 这个世界有责任 你能怎样？
When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available,
当有一百种不同款式的牛仔裤任君选购
and you buy one that is disappointing,
而你买的那条令你失望
and you ask why, who’s responsible?
你寻找原因和责任人
It is equally clear that the answer to the question is “you.”
答案同样很明显 那就是你
You could have done better.
你本可以买到更好的
With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,
店里有一百种不同款式的牛仔裤
there is no excuse for failure.
再选错就说不过去了
And so when people make decisions,
因此当人们做出选择
and even though the results of the decisions are good,
即使选择的结果还不错
they feel disappointed about them;
人们仍感失望
they blame themselves.
陷入自责
Clinical depression has exploded
在工业化国家的上一代人中
in the industrial world in the last generation.
临床抑郁症急剧增加
I believe a significant — not the only, but a significant —
我认为 抑郁症和自杀现象激增的
contributor to this explosion of depression, and also suicide,
一个重要因素——并非唯一却很重要的因素
is that people have experiences that are disappointing because their standards are so high,
是由于人们标准过高以致受到挫败
and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,
接着他们不得不自我解释这些挫败
they think they’re at fault.
他们认为错在自身
And so the net result is that we do better
最终结果是 客观来说我们通常
in general, objectively,and we feel worse.
做了更好的选择 却感觉更差
So let me remind you.
让我提醒你一下
This is the official dogma,
这些是公认信条
the one that we all take to be true,
我们都深信不疑
and it’s all false. It is not true.
但它们全是错的 并非真相
There’s no question
毋庸置疑的是
that some choice is better than none,
有得选比没得选要好
but it doesn’t follow from that
但这不是由
that more choice is better than some choice.
“选择越多越好”推断出来的
There’s some magical amount. I don’t know what it is.
存在某个神奇的总量 我不知道是多少
I’m pretty confident that we have long since passed the point
但我相当确信 我们早就逾越了
where options improve our welfare.
选择能够提高人们幸福的临界点
Now, as a policy matter — I’m almost done —
作为一项政策问题——我快说完了
as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:
需要考虑的是：
what enables all of this choice
在工业社会
in industrial societies is material affluence.
是物质的富足 使所有这些选择成为可能
There are lots of places in the world, and we have heard about several of them,
世界上有很多地方 我们也听说过一些
where their problem is not that they have too much choice.
那里的问题不是选择太多
Their problem is that they have too little.
而是选择太少
So the stuff I’m talking about
所以我在谈的
is the peculiar problem of modern, affluent, Western societies.
是富裕的现代西方社会所特有的问题
And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:
令人沮丧和恼火的是：
Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday about how
昨天Steve Levitt跟你们谈到
these expensive and difficult-to-install
那些又贵又难安装的
child seats don’t help.
儿童安全座椅是何等没用
It’s a waste of money.
就是浪费金钱
What I’m telling you is that these expensive,
我要告诉你们的是 这些昂贵
complicated choices –it’s not simply that they don’t help.
且复杂的选择——它们不只是没用那么简单
They actually hurt.They actually make us worse off.
事实上它们有害安全 使我们情况更糟
If some of what enables people in our
如果把我们社会中
societies to make all of the choices we make
使人们得以做出一切选择的东西
were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,
部分地转移给选择极为匮乏的社会
not only would those people’s lives be improved,
不仅那里的人们生活将得到改善
but ours would be improved also,
我们的生活也将得到改善
which is what economists call a “Pareto-improving move.”
这就是经济学家们所称的“帕累托改进”
Income redistribution will make everyone better off —
收入再分配将使每个人更加幸福
not just poor people —
不只是穷人
because of how all this excess choice plagues us.
因为过多的选择如此地困扰我们
So to conclude.
来做总结
You’re supposed to read this cartoon,
想必你见过这幅漫画
and, being a sophisticated person, say,”Ah! What does this fish know?
作为复杂的社会人 你会说“哼 这鱼知道什么”
You know, nothing is possible in this fishbowl.
没错 在这鱼缸里没有什么可能性
“Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world” –and that’s the way I read it at first.
“想象力贫乏 目光短浅”——这是我最初的解读
The more I thought about it, however, the more I came to the view
然而 思考得越多 我就越是认为
that this fish knows something.
这条鱼还真知道些什么
Because the truth of the matter is
因为事情的真相是
that if you shatter the fishbowl
如果你打碎了鱼缸
so that everything is possible,
则一切皆有可能
you don’t have freedom.You have paralysis.
你没有了自由 思维麻痹
If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,
如果你打碎了鱼缸 使一切皆有可能
you decrease satisfaction.
你对生活的满意度就会降低
You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.
思维愈加麻痹而满意度降低
Everybody needs a fishbowl.
每个人都需要一只鱼缸
This one is almost certainly too limited —
几乎可以肯定 漫画里的这只太小了
perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.
甚至对鱼来说可能都小 对我们则毫无疑问
But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl
可一旦没有了某种隐喻性的鱼缸
is a recipe for misery,
那将导致痛苦
and, I suspect, disaster.
我想还有灾难
Thank you very much.
非常感谢
[Applause]
[掌声]