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下一次工业革命已经到来!

The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre

【启点字幕组】
Light up the world
各位 我们有麻烦了
Guys, we have an issue.
增长正在消退 这可是件大事
Growth is fading away, and it’s a big deal.
全球经济增长停滞
Our global economy stops growing.
而且这已经不是新鲜事了
And it’s not new.
实际上 过去50年 经济增长持续乏力
Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.
长此以往 我们恐怕就得要学着
If we continue like this, we need to learn
在未来10年内经济不增长的情况下 怎么生活
how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.
这很可怕 因为如果经济停止增长
This is scary because when the economy doesn’t grow,
我们的孩子就没办法过上更好的生活
our children don’t get better lives.
更可怕的是 当蛋糕不再做大
What’s even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,
我们每人分得的分量就会变少
each of us get a smaller piece.
于是 我们就会拼命争夺
We’re then ready to fight for a bigger one.
从而导致紧张和严重的冲突
This creates tensions and serious conflicts.
经济增长意义重大
Growth matters a lot.
回顾历史 可以发现
If we look at the history of growth,
巨大的增长都是靠
times of big growth have always been fueled
工业革命来驱动的
by big manufacturing revolutions.
这种现象已有三次 每50-60年一次
It happened three times, every 50-60 years.
19世纪中期的蒸汽发动机
The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,
20世纪初的大规模生产模式
the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century —
托了福特先生的福
thanks, Mr. Ford.
和20世纪70年代的首波自动化大潮
And the first automation wave in the 1970s.
为什么这些工业革命
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
可以刺激经济的巨大增长呢
create huge growth in our economies?
因为它们带来了生产力的提升
Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.
这很容易理解
It’s rather simple:
为了增长 必须要生产更多东西
in order to grow, you need to be producing more,
投入更多东西到经济中
putting more into our economy.
就是说 需要更多劳动力 更多资本 或者更多生产力
This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.
每一次 生产力都是经济增长的杠杆
Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.
今天 我想告诉各位
I’m here today to tell you
我们正站在又一次巨大转变的边缘
that we are on the verge of another huge change,
同时 非常令人惊讶的是
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
这个转变又一次来自于工业
is going to come from manufacturing, again.
它将能带我们走出发展的低谷
It will get us out of our growth slump
同时 它将彻底改变过去10年间形成的
and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped
全球化的模式
over the last decade.
今天 我想向各位解释的是即将到来的
I’m here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution
第四次工业革命
that is currently underway.
上一次工业革命之后
It’s not as if we’ve done nothing with manufacturing
我们并非无所作为
since the last revolution.
事实上 我们多次试图振兴工业
Actually, we’ve made some pretty lame attempts
只是结果不尽人意
to try to revitalize it.
这些尝试收效甚微
But none of them have been the big overhaul
不足以带来再次增长
we really need to get us growing again.
比如说 我们尝试把工厂迁往外国
For example, we’ve tried to relocate our factories offshore
以减少成本并利用廉价劳动力
in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.
这不仅没有促进生产力
Not only did this not inspire productivity,
而且节省成本的效果也难以长期保持
but it only saved money for a short period of time,
因为廉价劳动力不会长期保持低价
because cheap labor didn’t stay cheap for long.
接着 我们又尝试扩大生产规模
Then, we’ve tried to make our factories larger
提高其生产专业化程度
and we specialized them by product.
我们的想法是 工厂可以生产大量单一产品
The idea was that we can make a lot of one product
存储入库以备按需销售
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
这确实在短期内给生产力带来了帮助
This did help productivity for a while.
但也使供应链逐渐僵化
But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.
再说说快消时尚品牌
Let’s take fashion retail.
传统的服装公司
Traditional clothing companies
在外国建立起僵化的工厂
have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.
而它们的快消对手们 比如Zara
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
则在愈发迅速地更新库存
started replenishing their stocks faster
从每年两季变成每月一季
from two collections a year to one collection a month,
传统公司都跟不上这种节奏
none of them have been able to keep up with the pace.
因而大量陷于困境
Most of them are in great difficulties today.
然而 尽管存在这么多弊端
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
但这样的工厂就是我们如今面对的现实
those are the factories we know today.
好好看看吧
When you open the doors,
这些工厂和50年前并无二致
they look the same as they did 50 years ago.
仅仅是改变了地点 规模和运营方式
We’ve just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.
你还能说出什么和50年前一样的
Can you name anything else that looks the same
其他特征吗
as it did 50 years ago?
这很糟糕
It’s crazy.
我们已经对其经营模式进行了所有能做的调整
We’ve made all the tweaks to the model that we could,
如今我们碰到了瓶颈
and now we hit its limits.
在这些尝试都失败之后
After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,
我们就想 增长可能来自别处
we thought growth could come from elsewhere.
我们把目光放到了科技领域
We turned to the tech sector —
那里有许许多多的技术创新
there’s been quite a lot of innovations there.
就举个例子 互联网
Just to name one: the Internet.
我们希望它能带动经济增长
We hoped it could produce growth.
诚然 互联网改变了我们的生活
And indeed, it changed our lives.
在媒体 服务业和娱乐业等带来巨大改变
It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.
但互联网并没有带动生产力
But it hasn’t done much for productivity.
并且 令人惊讶的是 尽管有这么多的技术创新
Actually, what’s surprising is that productivity is on the decline
但生产力仍在下降
despite all of those innovation efforts.
想象一下 坐在办公室内浏览Facebook
Imagine that — sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,
在YouTube上看视频 就让我们的效率变低了吗
watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.
真奇怪
Weird.
增长停滞的原因就在于此
This is why we are not growing.
我们没能在生产制造领域有所作为
We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,
而大型科技创新又没能在制造业中发挥作用
and large technological innovations have played away from it.
但如果 将这两股力量结合的话会怎么样呢
But what if we could combine those forces?
如果已有的制造业和科技创新相互融合
What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation
能否带来下一次工业革命呢
came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.
就该这样
Bingo!
这就是第四次工业革命
This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,
而且它现在正在发生着
and it’s happening right now.
一些关键的科技正应用于制造业
Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,
这可是大事
big time.
科技有望使工业生产率提高逾三分之一
They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.
这一提升意义重大 并将显著促进经济增长
This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.
我来跟各位说说吧
Let me tell you about some of them.
你们见过先进的生产机器人吗
Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?
它们和人类的身量相当
They are the size of humans,
并且与人类紧密合作
they actually collaborate with them,
设定好程序后
and they can be programmed
机器人就能完成复杂的非重复性工作
in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.
在现在的工厂中 只有8%的生产任务是自动化完成的
Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.
都是些简单的重复性操作
The less complex, the more repetitive ones.
10年后 自动化比率会提升至25%
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
也就是说 到2025年
It means that by 2025,
先进的机器人将辅助人类
advanced robots will complement workers
提高20%的生产力
to be, together, 20 percent more productive,
产量将增加20%
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
以此达到20%的附加增长
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
这不是天方夜谭
This isn’t some fancy, futuristic idea.
现在 这些机器人正为我们所用
These robots are working for us right now.
就在去年 它们在美国帮亚马逊公司整理和装运了
Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products
年度销售高峰“剁手星期一”的
required for Cyber Monday,
全部订单
the annual peak of online retail.
去年的购物节
Last year in the US,
成为当年及有史以来网上交易额最大的一次
it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.
节日当天 消费者花费在电子产品的金额高达30亿美元
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.
这是真正的经济增长
That’s real economic growth.
此外 还有增材制造 3D打印
Then there’s additive manufacturing, 3D printing.
3D打印已使塑料生产得到改善
3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing
如今正试图用于金属制造
and it’s now making its way through metal.
那些都不是小产业
Those are not small industries.
塑料和金属占
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
全球制造业生产的25%
of global manufacturing production.
举个实际的例子
Let’s take a real example.
在航天航空业中
In the aerospace industry,
制造燃油喷嘴是最复杂的环节
fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,
原因是
for one reason:
燃油喷嘴由20种不同的零部件构成
they are made up of 20 different parts
每种都需要单独生产
that need to be separately produced
再精心组装成成品
and then painstakingly assembled.
航空公司现在所使用的3D打印
Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,
可以把20种不同的零部件
which allows them to turn those 20 different parts
浓缩成一个
into just one.
结果呢
The results?
生产力提高40%
40 percent more productivity,
多40%的产量 多40%的经济增长
40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth
这是对于航空业而言
for this specific industry.
但实际上 这次新工业革命中最激动人心的
But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution
远不止生产力的提升
goes much beyond productivity.
更在于生产出更优质更智能的产品
It’s about producing better, smarter products.
在于大规模的专业化定制
It’s about scale customization.
想象一下 你可以买到定制化的商品
Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want
它具备你需要的功能
with the functionalities you need,
有你喜欢的设计
with the design you want,
其价格和交货时间
with the same cost and lead time
也与量产商品无异
as a product that’s been mass produced,
就像你的车 衣服和手机
like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.
新工业革命让这种设想成为可能
The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.
先进智能的机器人可以根据编程
Advanced robots can be programmed
来生产任何产品配置
in order to perform any product configuration
不需要专门花时间来调整
without any setup time or ramp up.
3D打印机可以即刻生产任何定制产品
3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.
我们现在以生产量化商品的成本和时间
We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,
来制造专属于你的定制商品
at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.
这些只是正在发生的新工业革命中的几个例子
Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.
工业生产不仅能实现更高的生产力
Not only will manufacturing become more productive,
也会变得更加灵活
it will also become more flexible,
而这些正是促进经济增长所需的要素
and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.
但实际上 当制造业重新回到我们的视线当中时
But actually, there are even some bigger implications
它对我们所有人来说 有着更重大的影响
for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.
将会带来巨大的宏观经济转变
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
首先 我们的工厂将重新迁回国内
First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.
规模化定制生产实现之后
In the world of scale customization,
产地靠近消费者就会成为新的常态
consumer proximity is the new norm.
第二 工厂将更小更灵敏
Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.
规模退居二线 灵活性成为重中之重
Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.
工厂会生产多样化的定制化的产品
They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.
这将会是一种巨变
The change will be drastic.
全球化将进入新纪元
Globalization will enter a new era.
由东向西的贸易流
The East-to-West trade flows
将被区域贸易取代
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
东方和东方交易 西方和西方交易
East for East, West for West.
这样一对比 你就会发现
When you think about that,
旧的模式似乎并不合理
the old model was pretty much insane.
存货大量堆积 大批商品运往全球
Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world
才能最终到达消费者手中
before they reach their end consumers.
而新的模式则是就近生产
The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,
会更清洁 更有利于生态环境
will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.
在发达经济体中 制造业会回归国内
In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,
创造更多就业岗位
creating more employment,
促进生产力提高和经济增长
more productivity and more growth.
好消息 对吧
Good news, isn’t it?
但是 还有个问题
But here’s the thing with growth —
这种改变不会自动实现
it does not come automatically.
发达经济体必须主动抓住机会
Mature economies will have to seize it.
我们需要大规模进行劳动力再培训
We’ll have to massively re-train our workforce.
在大多数国家 例如我的祖国 法国
In most countries, like in my country, France,
我们已经跟孩子们说 制造业是没有出路的
we’ve told our children that manufacturing had no future.
这种糟糕的情况广泛存在
That it was something happening far away.
我们需要扭转这种局面
We need to reverse that
重新在大学开设工业课程
and teach manufacturing again at university.
唯有锐意改革的国家
Only the countries that will boldly transform
才能够抓住增长的机遇
will be able to seize this growth.
这对于发展中国家来说也是良机
It’s also a chance for developing economies.
当然 中国及其他新兴经济体
Of course China and other emerging economies
将不再是世界工厂
won’t be the factory of the world anymore.
事实上 虽然这些国家靠制造业发了家
Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,
但世界工厂的模式并不可持续
as those countries are becoming richer.
去年 在巴西生产的成本
Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil
已追平法国
as to produce in France.
到2018年 中国的制造成本将会和美国持平
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.
新的工业革命
The new manufacturing revolution
将会加速新兴经济体的转型
will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies
向依靠国内消费转变
towards a model driven by domestic consumption.
这是好现象
And this is good,
因为这才是经济增长的题中之义
because this is where growth will be created.
下一个5年内
In the next five years,
数以十亿计的中国消费者给我们带来的经济增长
the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies
将超过欧洲前五大市场的总和
than the top five European markets together.
第四次工业革命对我们大家来说都是机遇
This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.
如果我们把握得当
If we play it right,
各类经济体都会迎来可持续发展
we’ll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.
这就意味着 大家都能够分到更多的财富
This means more wealth distributed to all of us
而我们的孩子们也能有更好的未来
and a better future for our children.
谢谢大家
Thank you.

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