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巴黎气候协议的内情

The inside story of the Paris climate agreement | Christiana Figueres

我乐观的原因还有这个:
I have one more reason for optimism:
那便是气候变化。
climate change.
也许你对此不太相信, 然而这便是事实。
Maybe you don’t believe it, but here is the fact.
在2015年的12月12日的巴黎,
On December 12, 2015,
受命于联合国的邀请,
in Paris, under the United Nations,
195个国家代表齐聚一堂,
195 governments got together
并达成全部共识 ——
and unanimously —
如果你和政府打过交道, 你应该知道这非常困难,
if you’ve worked with governments, you know how difficult that is —
全体一致的达成共识,
unanimously decided
有心去改变全球经济发展的进程,
to intentionally change the course of the global economy
来保护做弱势的一方,
in order to protect the most vulnerable
以及提升我们所有人的生活。
and improve the life of all of us.
这真的是一项了不起的成就。
Now, that is a remarkable achievement.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
然而,更不得了的地方是,
But it is even more remarkable
如果你回想一下几年前,
if you consider where we had been just a few years ago.
2009,在哥本哈根的会议。
2009, Copenhagen.
谁还记得哥本哈根会议吗?
Who remembers Copenhagen?
经过了长年累月有关气候协议的努力,
Well, after years of working toward a climate agreement,
同样的与会国家被召集到哥本哈根,
the same governments convened in Copenhagen
结局却是惨不忍睹。
and failed miserably.
为什么会这样呢?
Why did it fail miserably?
理由有很多,
For many different reasons,
但最主要是因为存在于 南北半球国家之间的,
but primarily because of the deeply entrenched divide
那根深蒂固的分歧。
between the global North and the global South.
然而如今,在失败过后的6个月,
So now, six months after this failure,
我被委任接受这项,
I was called in to assume the responsibility
全球气候变化谈判的职责。
of the global climate change negotiations.
你能想象, 这是个开始新工作的最佳时刻。
You can imagine, the perfect moment to start this new job.
全球对于气候变化的态度一团糟。
The global mood on climate change was in the trash can.
没有人会相信,
No one believed
全球能在此问题上达成共识,
that a global agreement could ever be possible.
实际上,我也是这么想的。
In fact, neither did I.
除了在座优秀的TED观众, 你能守口如瓶的话,
If you promise not to tell anyone outside of this wonderful TED audience,
我准备告诉你们一个秘密,
I’m going to divulge a secret
这个秘密一直被历史完好封存着。
that has been gratefully buried by history.
在我首次的新闻发布会上,
On my first press conference,
有一名记者提问到:“ Figueres女士,
a journalist asked, “Um, Ms. Figueres,
你是否认为要达成全球共识 是不可能完成的?”
do you think that a global agreement is ever going to be possible?”
大脑还没反应过来时, 我听见自己说道,
And without engaging brain, I heard me utter,
” 这辈子是不可能了。“
“Not in my lifetime.”
当然,你可以想象到 我们新闻团队的表情,
Well, you can imagine the faces of my press team
大家都被这个 来自哥斯达黎加的疯女人所震惊,
who were horrified at this crazy Costa Rican woman
而且这个女人还是他们的新上司。
who was their new boss.
其实,我当时也被自己吓到了。
And I was horrified, too.
我并非被那个早已习惯了的自己所吓到,
Now, I wasn’t horrified at me, because I’m kind of used to myself.
我真正害怕的是,
I was actually horrified
我话语所带来的后果,
at the consequences of what I had just said,
为这个我们子孙都会生活的这个世界,
at the consequences for the world
所带来的后果。
in which all our children are going to have to live.
老实讲,对我来说,那是个可怕的一刻,
It was frankly a horrible moment for me,
然后我想,不,我要挺住,
and I thought, well, no, hang on,
我要挺住。
hang on.
不可能不是一个既定事实,
Impossible is not a fact,
而是一种态度。
it’s an attitude.
这仅仅是一种态度。
It’s only an attitude.
就在那刻,我立马改变了我的态度,
And I decided right then and there that I was going to change my attitude
我也要帮助这个世界, 来改变他们对气候变化的态度。
and I was going to help the world change its attitude on climate change.
我不知道——
So I don’t know —
仅仅是这样?谢谢。
No, just this? Thanks.
我不知道——
I don’t know —
如果让你拯救这个星球,
what you would do
你会怎么做?
if you were told your job is to save the planet.
然后把它写到你的工作描述中。
Put that on the job description.
虽然你并没有被赋予任何权利,
And you have full responsibility,
但你会感到十足的使命感。
but you have absolutely no authority,
因为政府在作出每个决定时 有着至高无上的权力。
because governments are sovereign in every decision that they take.
我着实很想了解,
Well, I would really love to know
在第一个星期一的早晨, 你会怎么做?
what you would do on the first Monday morning,
我当时是:怕的要死。
but here’s what I did: I panicked.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
接着,我还是感到害怕,
And then I panicked again,
因为我意识到, 我不知道该如何解决这个问题。
because I realized I have no idea how we’re going to solve this problem.
我不知道该如何解决这个问题,
And then I realized I have no idea how we’re going to solve this problem,
但我知道一点:
but I do know one thing:
我们要改变这个会话的氛围。
we have got to change the tone of this conversation.
如果你不积极面对,
Because there is no way you can deliver victory
你是不可能成功的。
without optimism.
此时此刻,
And here,
我以乐观向上这个非常简单的词,
I use optimism as a very simple word,
但让我们从广义层面上来理解这个词。
but let’s understand it in its broader sense.
让我们把它理解为勇气,
Let’s understand it as courage,
希望,信任以及齐心协力,
hope, trust, solidarity,
秉持着人类能够聚集在一起的基本信念
the fundamental belief that we humans can come together
以及能够为了更好的命运而相互帮助。
and can help each other to better the fate of mankind.
试想一下,如果我不这么想,
Well, you can imagine that I thought that without that,
可能我们便没有办法从 哥本哈根的无力状态里走出来。
there was no way we were going to get out of the paralysis of Copenhagen.
时隔六年,
And for six years,
我怀抱着不屈不饶,冷酷无情的态度, 向这个体系注入乐观主义,
I have stubbornly, relentlessly injected optimism into the system,
无论新闻发布会上会有怎样的问题,
no matter what the questions from the press —
我现在变得更会处理这些问题了——
and I have gotten better at those —
而且,无论对立面有着怎样的蛛丝马迹。
and no matter what the evidence to the contrary.
相信我,反证一直有很多。
And believe you me, there has been a lot of contrary evidence.
随着不屈不饶的把乐观主义带入体系,
But relentless optimism into the system.
过了没多久,
And pretty soon,
我们开始在很多领域里碰到挑战,
we began to see changes happening in many areas,
使数百万千的人们突然陷入其中,
precipitated by thousands of people,
也包括今天在座的各位,
including many of you here today,
对此,我向你们表达我的谢意。
and I thank you.
我想,TED群体应该不会 对我待会要说的话感到惊讶,
And this TED community will not be surprised
我们当时见证了,
if I tell you the first area
第一个领域的惊人变化,
in which we saw remarkable change
便是…
was …
科技。
technology.
我们开始关注清洁技术,
We began to see that clean technologies,
特别是可再生能源技术,
in particular renewable energy technologies,
开始降低成本,并提高生产力,
began to drop price and increase in capacity,
为了我们如今已经建立起来的
to the point where today we are already building
集中太阳能发电厂,
concentrated solar power plants
能够拥有足够的能量来攻击整个城市,
that have the capacity to power entire cities,
而对那些我们在流动性 以及智能大厦中
to say nothing of the fact of what we are doing on mobility
的作为闭口不提。
and intelligent buildings.
然而,有了科技这个转变,
And with this shift in technologies,
我们开始能够理解,
we were able to begin to understand
从经济均衡来看,也是个转变,
that there was a shift in the economic equation,
因为我们能够认识到,
because we were able to recognize
一,气候变化需要巨大的成本,
that yes, there are huge costs to climate change,
二,其中也有各种风险。
and yes, there are compounded risks.
但其中也有经济优势,
But there also are economic advantages
以及内在利益,
and intrinsic benefits,
因为清洁技术的散播,
because the dissemination of the clean technologies
能够带给我们更新鲜的空气,
is going to bring us cleaner air,
使我们更健康,
better health,
交通也更顺畅,更多宜居的城市,
better transportation, more livable cities,
更多能源保证,
more energy security,
以及会有更多能够助于世界发展的能源出现。
more energy access to the developing world.
总而言之,会有一个 比我们现在还要棒的世界。
In sum, a better world than what we have now.
有了这个觉悟,
And with that understanding,
你应该见证一下, 事实上,你已经参与其中,
you should have witnessed, in fact, part of you were,
经历了其聪明才智和兴奋的蔓延,
the spread of ingenuity and excitement
首当其冲的是非政府方,
that went through, first through nonnational governments,
私营企业,业界巨头,保险公司,
the private sector, captains of industry, insurance companies,
投资方,市领导人,各种信仰的社区,
investors, city leaders, faith communities,
因为他们都开始懂得, 这着实和他们的切身利益有关。
because they all began to understand, this actually can be in their interest.
这确实可以提升他们的最终盈利。
This can actually improve their bottom line.
而这并非是秋后算账。
And it wasn’t just the usual suspects.
我必须和你说,有个在非常大型的石油和天然气公司 任职的首席执行官,
I have to tell you I had the CEO of a major, major oil and gas company
在去年年初的时候找到我,
come to me at the beginning of last year
和我说道 —
and say —
当然,是私底下 —
privately, of course —
他当时不知道该如何改变 目前的公司状况,
he did not know how he was going to change his company,
但是他又这个打算,
but he is going to change it,
因为他看中的是公司长久的可行性。
because he’s interested in long-term viability.
嗯,现在,我们在经济均衡方面有了转变,
Well, now we have a shift in the economic equation,
而由于这个转变,以及大家广泛的支持,
and with that, with broader support from everyone,
我们见证各国政府 在对自身国家利益上的觉悟,
it did not take very long before we saw that national governments
也不会太久。
woke up to the fact that this is in their national interest.
并且当我们开始让各国政府去定义,
And when we asked countries to begin to identify
他们改如何为全球做出贡献时,
how they could contribute to global efforts
但是是在本国利益的基础上,
but based on their national interest,
195个国家中的189个国家,
189 countries out of 195,
189个国家都献出了 他们应对气候变化的详尽计划,
189 countries sent their comprehensive climate change plans,
这计划是在本国利益基础上,
based on their national interest,
同时结合了他们的重点,
concurrent with their priorities,
并与各国持久发展计划相符合。
consistent with their national sustainable development plans.
当然,
Well,
一旦你保护了各国的核心利益,
once you protect the core interests of nations,
你会了解到各国也准备好,
then you can understand that nations were ready
开始通往同一条道路,
to begin to converge onto a common path,
朝向同一个方向,
onto a common direction of travel
这也将带给我们可能数十个年头,
that is going to take us probably several decades,
或者超过数十个年头,
but over those several decades is going to take us
一番新经济的景象,
into the new economy,
进入一个脱碳化,高度强韧经济时期,
into a decarbonized, highly resilient economy,
而那时各国所做出的贡献,
And the national contributions that are currently on the table
也将代表各国政府,展示于人前,
on behalf of national governments
虽还不足于带给我们一个稳定的气候,
are insufficient to get us to a stabilized climate,
但这迈出的第一步,
but they are only the first step,
将随着时间的推延,得到提升。
and they will improve over time.
而这些结果的衡量,汇报以及验证,
And the measurement, reporting and verification of all of those efforts
是具有法律约束力的。
is legally binding.
而这些我们每五年都要面对的关卡,
And the checkpoints that we’re going to have every five years
为了达到我们目标而评估总体进展, 也是具有法律约束力的,
to assess collective progress towards our goal are legally binding,
而这条通往脱碳化, 更加强韧经济的道路,
and the path itself toward a decarbonized and more resilient economy
也是具有法律约束力的。
is legally binding.
还有更重要的点是:
And here’s the more important part:
我们之前拥有的是什么?
What did we have before?
屈指可数的国家,
A very small handful of countries
都经历了非常缩减的,
who had undertaken very reduced,
短期的减排承诺,
short-term emission reduction commitments
而这仅仅是不够的,
that were completely insufficient
另外,很大程度上被视为一种负担。
and furthermore, largely perceived as a burden.
那现在我们拥有的是什么?
Now what do we have?
我们现在有的是来自世界的各个国家, 用不同的方式,
Now we have all countries of the world contributing with different intensities
在不同的区域,以不同的强度 来做出他们的贡献,
from different approaches in different sectors,
但是他们都是为了同一个目标,
but all of them contributing to a common goal
怀着整体环保的心情,
and along a path
朝着同一方向。
with environmental integrity.
一旦所有事物都适得其所,
Well, once you have all of this in place
你会开始改变想法,
and you have shifted this understanding,
然后你会看到 各个国家都愿意前往巴黎,
then you see that governments were able to go to Paris
对巴黎协议表示认同。
and adopt the Paris agreement.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
所以,
So,
当我回顾一切,
as I look back
回顾这过去的六年,
over the past six years,
跳出的第一件事,
first I remember
便是巴黎协议被采纳的那天。
the day the Paris agreement was adopted.
我形容不出那时在房间里的愉悦。
I cannot tell you the euphoria in the room.
5000个人都高兴的从椅子上跳了起来,
5,000 people jumping out of their seats,
哭泣,鼓掌,尖叫,呐喊着,
crying, clapping, screaming, yelling,
欣喜之情和难以置信间的纠葛, 是他们之前刚见证到的,
torn between euphoria and still disbelief at what they had just seen,
因为有太多的人,
because so many people
为达成这个目标而工作数年, 然而现在终于实现了。
had worked for years towards this, and this was finally their reality.
而这不仅仅是直接参与的那些人。
And it wasn’t just those who had participated directly.
几周前,我和一位同事,
A few weeks ago, I was with a colleague
他当时在为他美丽的妻子Natasha,
who was trying to decide
选择大溪地珍珠来作为礼物的时候。
on a Tahitian pearl that he wanted to give to his wonderful wife Natasha.
当他终于决定要买哪个的时候,
And once he had finally decided what he was going to buy,
店员和他说道,
the jeweler said to him,
“你知道吗,你现在买下这个十分幸运,
“You know, you’re very lucky that you’re buying this now,
因为这些珍珠灰因为气候变化, 很快就会不复存在。“
because these pearls could go extinct very soon because of climate change.”
“但是,”店员说道,“你知道吗,
“But,” the jeweler said, “have you heard,
政府刚提出一个决策,
the governments have just come to a decision,
大溪地可能还有一线生机。“
and Tahiti could have a chance.”
这证实太棒了,
Well, what a fantastic confirmation
可能,有可能便有希望,
that perhaps, perhaps here is hope,
这是个可能性。
here is a possible chance.
我是第一个意识到我们还有很多事要去做。
I’m the first one to recognize that we have a lot of work still to do.
在气候变化的问题上, 我们仅仅只是开始。
We’ve only just started our work on climate change.
而且事实上,我们要确保能够, 在接下来十分重要的五年内,
And in fact, we need to make sure that we redouble our efforts
增加我们的成效。
over the next five years that are the urgent five years.
而且我相信,
But I do believe
我们所经历的这六年,
that we have come over the past six years
我们从不可能,
from the impossible
成长为如今的势不可挡。
to the now unstoppable.
而我们又是如何做到的呢? 通过注入具有转变意义的乐观态度,
And how did we do that? By injecting transformational optimism
那使得我们能够从对峙到合作,
that allowed us to go from confrontation to collaboration,
那使得我们去理解国家以及当地的利益,
that allowed us to understand that national and local interests
而并非是于全球需求所抗衡的,
are not necessarily at odds with global needs,
并且如果我们理解这点, 就能够使大家团结起来,
and that if we understand that, we can bring them together
我们可以使大家都和睦相处。
and we can merge them harmoniously.
当我回顾其他的全球议题时,
And as I look forward to other global issues
需要我们对这世纪的关注 —
that will require our attention this century —
食品安全,水源安全, 家庭保全,强制迁移 —
food security, water security, home security, forced migration —
我想我们目前还不是十分清楚,
I see that we certainly do not know
该如何解决这些问题。
how we are going to solve those problems yet.
但我们可以为在气候变化上做出的贡献, 画下新的篇章,
But we can take a page out of what we have done on climate change
并且我们知道,
and we can understand
我们应该重新定义零和心态。
that we have got to reinterpret the zero-sum mentality.
因为我们老是被灌输 应该去相信,凡是都有输有赢,
Because we were trained to believe that there always are winners and losers,
不是你输,就是我赢。
and that your loss is my gain.
然而,我们共同生活在同一个世界,
Well, now that we’re in a world
一个我们都会碰到许多界限的世界,
in which we have reached planetary boundaries
我们并非只是相互联结,
and that we are not just so interconnected,
而是越来越相互依靠,
but increasingly interdependent on each other,
输了的对立面,不再是赢了。
your loss is no longer my gain.
我们要么全盘皆输,
We’re either all losers
要么大获全胜。
or we all can be winners.
我们需要在从无到有中,
But we are going to have to decide
进行选择。
between zero and sum.
我们需要在毫无利益,
We’re going to have to decide between zero benefit for all
还是为全人类畅享生活中作出选择。
or living life as the sum of all of us.
我们已经做到过了。我们还可以再做到。
We’ve done it once. We can do it again.
谢谢。
Thanks.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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