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来自人工智能的威胁

The Greatest Threat To Humanity

奥创 天网 格拉多斯
Ultron, Skynet, GLaDOS.
这些都是我们非常喜爱的精彩角色
These are wonderful characters, we really do love them.
这些角色本身应该是没问题的 但是涉及
And they should be fine, but films and games
超级人工智能的电影与游戏一般都会犯一个严重的错误
involving an artificial super intelligence as a rule commit a cardinal sin.
(它们所描述的人工智能)是不合理的 不现实的
They are unreasonable and ultimately unrealistic.
它们所描述的并不能实现
What they portray cannot be.
不仅仅因为它是虚构的 而且人工智能应该被制止
And it’s not just that is fiction and artificial intelligence should be defeated.
传染病 战争 天灾 核武器 全球变暖……
Epidemics, wars, natural disasters, nuclear weapons, global warming…
在这颗美丽的蓝色星球上 人类不得不面对各种各样的问题
Mankind on our beautiful blue planet has always had to face a variety of problems.
每当我们解决了一个由自己导致的问题
And each time we have climbed out of the hole we’ve dugged for ourselves,
另一个新的威胁便随之而至 可怕的是
a new threat has appeared on the horizon and it is a terrible thing that
许多科学家把每个新的问题
so many scientists call every latest danger
都当作有史以来对人类最大的威胁
the greatest threat to humanity in all of history.
偶尔 是我们最新的发明
And occasionally, our very last invention.
你知道我们和蚂蚁的区别是什么吗
Do you know what are the differences between us and ants?
区别在于蚂蚁不能体会任何人类的潮流
The effect is ants cannot think any human fashion.
它们无法感知其他世界的存在
They cannot perceive of the existence of other worlds,
无法感知宇宙的浩瀚 或是海洋的深邃
the immensity of the universe, or the depth of the ocean.
它们也许能意识到在它们周围
They may know in their own trivial way
有高楼大厦和人类这样的事物
that there are such things as skyscrapers or people.
但它们永远不会懂得 楼都是人类建的
but they will never comprehend that skyscrapers are built by people.
你知道我们是怎么对待蚂蚁的吗
And do you know how we treat ants?
我们用力践踏它们
We stomp on them.
一旦机器学会思考 并不断改进自己
Once machines learn to think and improve themselves
并且可以进行比人类快几百万倍的推算时
and when these machines can reason millions of times faster than human being,
它们也许能在五分钟内学会 人类的十年所学
they might master in 5 minutes what would take a human 10 years.
如果没有人按下停止按钮 它们可能在眨眼间
If no one presses the stop button, they might become something like gods
就成为神一般的存在
in less time than it takes to blink an eye.
(到时)我们对它们来说就连蚂蚁都不如
We will not just be ants to them.
它们将胜过我们百万倍
They will surpass us a million times over.
它们将能够计算出数十亿种可能性及其概率
They will be able to calculate billions of possibilities and probabilities,
揭示所有自然规律 通晓意识的奥秘 甚至摧毁世界
reveal every law of nature, understand the secrets of consciousness, even destroy the world.
如果它们想要 就能做到
If they want, that is.
机器变得越聪明 它们就能越快地增加自己的智慧
The smarter a machine becomes, the faster it would increase its own intelligence.
机器可能需要数年才能超越蚂蚁的智慧
It may take years for a machine to surpass ants’ intelligence.
但也可能在一分钟内就能变得比我们聪明
but possibly in a minute for them to become smarter than us.
而其它人工智能每过去一秒都能变得越来越聪明
And that other artificial intelligence would become smarter and smarter with every passing second.
地球上会突然出现这样的状况
There will suddenly be something on this earth
这些比我们进化层次高得多的
much higher than us on the ladder of evolution,
极其高端的机器 如果它们想要 就能像碾压蚂蚁一样碾压我们
infinitely higher and it would crush us like ants if it wants to.
这一切都得看运气
It will all come down to luck.
大多数时候 我们想象超级人工智能时会犯一个严重的错误
Most often when we envision an artificial super intelligence we make a grave mistake.
我们天真地认为它将是某种友好的计算机
We imagine it would be some kind of good and friendly computer,
一个总是支持和帮助我们的好助手
a helpful assistant who would always support and assist us.
但是 情况并非如此
But this is not so.
对我们来说 它们是完全不同的物种
It would be something completely alien to us.
并且它们能够推理
And at the same time able to reason.
如果我给你一只毛茸茸的豚鼠 并告诉你 她不咬人
If I hand you a big fluffy guinea pig and tell you she doesn’t bite.
你将会轻抚她
You would pat her.
但是如果说我给你一只比你聪明400倍的巨型蜘蛛
But let’s say I offer you instead a giant spider that is 400 times smarter than you.
你还想轻抚他吗 不用说你当然不想
Still want to pat him? Of course not.
一只巨型的聪明的狼蛛也许能够加入一场有趣的会话
A giant smart tarantula might be able to carry on an interesting conversation.
但是他仍是一只蜘蛛
But he would still be a spider,
一个我们一点也不了解的有着昆虫本能的冷血杀手
a cold-blooded killer with the instincts of an insect which we do not understand at all.
在电影里 超级人工智能通常被描述为某种与人类相似的物种
In films, artificial super intelligence is generally portrayed as something humanlike.
所以 也许对我们来说 当那一天真的来到 一切都不会有问题
And so it might seem to us that when that day really comes everything would be all right.
我们已经习惯了它
We are already accustomed to it as something
就像一个来自恐怖电影的标准的老反派有点笨拙 根本掀不起什么风浪
like a standard old villain from horror movies, slightly clumsy and toothless.
但是一个真正的人工智能 如果面对类似使人笑的任务时
But a real artificial intelligence when faced with the task like making people smile,
举个例子 它们会选择使人们的面部神经瘫痪来使他们永久地保持微笑
might for example, paralyze people’s facial nerves to keep them smiling permanently.
一旦这样的情况发生 可能会使这个星球充满永远微笑的人
One wrong task like this and the planet would be full of ever-smiling people,
但是他们眼里充满恐惧
but with eyes filled with horror.
你可以要求一个人工智能 去消灭地球上的饥荒
One could ask an artificial intelligence to end hunger on the planet.
它会说 很简单 没问题 然后它就会消灭所有人类 这样也就消灭了饥荒
and it would say “that’s easy, no problem” and then just kill everyone or hunger.
就算给人工智能设置尽可能地保护地球生灵的任务
Set this AI with the task to preserve life on Earth as much as possible.
它们还是会再次轻易地杀死所有人类
And they could easily kill all humans again.
想象一下 一台拥有超级智能的机器
Imagine that a machine that has super intelligence
它在一间工厂里生产汽车 却突然失控
which produces cars in a factory suddenly goes haywire.
而它只有一个任务 生产尽可能多的汽车
It has just this one task–to produce as many cars as possible.
因而它会自我改进它的算法
It improves on its own algorithms.
它会关上工厂与外面世界的大门那样就没人能干涉它的任务了
It shuts the factory to the outside world so that no one can interfere with its mission.
它会重新设计并建造装配机器
It redesigns and rebuilds the assembling machines,
那样它们就能够更快更有效率地工作
so that they work more quickly and efficiently.
它会组织必要材料的供应 这些材料会立即被
It organises the supply of necessary materials which are immediately assembled
只听从超级智能机器的机器人装配好
by robots that obey only the super intelligence.
很快这个世界将充满灰色的布满灰尘的无人使用的设备
In no time at all the world might be covered in the grey dusty devices of our all life.
最终这个星球将会被分解为原料
And eventually the planet itself would be broken down into raw material.
仅仅是为了制造更多汽车
Just to fabricate more and more cars.
谁知接下来会发生什么
And who knows what might happen next?
这个失控的人工智能 甚至可能会到其他星球去
This insane AI could even go to other planets
寻找更多原料 来完成它的工作
in search of raw material to continue to do its job.
这一切发生地如此迅速 无人来得及加以阻止
This could all happen so quickly that no one would even have a chance to pull the plug.
该做些什么 无人知晓
What to do? Nobody knows yet.
这可不像躲避一颗陨石 这是更为严重的问题
This is not like dodging a meteorite. This is much more serious.
人工智能 可能真的会成为人类最后的发明
The creation of artificial intelligence really could be the last invention of mankind.

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视频概述

人工智能,在当前的社会里,无疑是个好帮手,但是其发展的同时,还有潜在的威胁……

听录译者

将惘

翻译译者

素履以往

审核员

译学馆审核团D

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAIHr0So9uo

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